4 February 2014 EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Overview of current market trends for PV systems Ir Gaëtan Masson EPIA - Head of Business Intelligence IEA-PVPS - Task 1 Operating Agent
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4 February 2014
EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION
Overview of current market trends for PV systems
Ir Gaëtan Masson
EPIA - Head of Business Intelligence
IEA-PVPS - Task 1 Operating Agent
04 February 2014 - Paris
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
109 EUR/MWh
Hinkley Point - UK
Page 2
Could PV electricity be cheapter than new nuclear ?
80 EUR/MWh Fraunhofer ISE – Central Germany –
Cheapest utility-scale
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
4 February 2014, Paris
Market Development
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Rapid Market Development
Source: IEA PVPS
Peak power demand x 2
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Page 5
2013 PV Market
Growing market. At least 35 GW (installed <> connected to the grid)
35,000
2013
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100 GW finally in 2012. Around 135 GW.
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Evolution of the Global Installed PV Capacities
> 135000
2013
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
4 February 2014 - Brussels
First Power Source Installed from 2011 to 2013 in Europe
2013: - PV: 10-11 GW - Wind: 10 GW - Gas: -2.7 GW (+5 -7)
In the same time, demand grew less than 5%
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
4 February 2014 - Brussels
The EU trio: Gas / Wind / PV
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2013
China: 8 - 12 GW Japan: 6 GW USA: 4 GW Germany: 3.3 GW …
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Market size
2010 2011 2012
1 Germany Italy Germany
2 Italy Germany Italy
3 Czech Rep. China China
4 Japan USA USA
5 USA France Japan
6 France Japan France
7 China Belgium Australia
8 Belgium UK India
9 Spain Australia UK
10 Australia Greece Greece
383 MW 425 MW 912 MW
Market level to access the top 10
Table 1: Evolution of Top 10 Markets
Year MW
1 Italy 2011 9305
2 Germany 2012 7604
3 Germany 2011 7485
4 Germany 2010 7413
5 Germany 2009 3806
6 Italy 2012 3647
7 China 2012 3500
8 USA 2012 3362
9 Spain 2008 2896
10 China 2011 2500
11 Italy 2010 2322
12 Germany 2008 1958
13 USA 2011 1867
14 France 2011 1759
15 Japan 2012 1718
16 Japan 2011 1296
17 Germany 2007 1277
18 France 2012 1079
19 Australia 2012 1038
20 Belgium 2011 1002
Table 2: 20 Largest Additions of Capacities in MW
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From Europe to the World
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Market Share per Region: From Europe to Asia
2013
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From off-grid to Utility-Scale
Source: IEA PVPS / EPIA
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
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PV Market Drivers
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Drivers to PV Market Development
China: FiT Japan: FiT USA: Tax breaks & net-metering Germany: FiT and SC
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EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Grid Parity and Competitiveness
source: IEA PVPS Page 16
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
What does « competitive » means ?
Uncompetitive PV Partial
competitiveness Competitiveness
Grid Parity Mark Competitiveness Mark
Compensable Retail electricity Prices PV LCOE
Feed-in tariffs Self-consumption bonus Net-metering with bonus Direct incentives
Feed-in export tariffs Natural Self-consumption Direct incentives Net-metering
Natural Self-consumption Wholesale prices for exports
source: EPIA / IEA PVPS - Gaetan Masson
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04 February 2014 - Paris
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
LCOE – Utility-scale PV – 1 EUR/WP – 6,8% WACC - 20 years - 2010 Electricity Market Price – Merit order effect not considered
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PV Competitiveness on Electricity Market
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
LCOE Ground Mounted - 1 EUR/Wp
LCOE GM
SPA
IN
FRA
NC
E
ITA
LY
GER
MA
NY
U
K
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PV Market Trends
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IEA Solar Workshop Roadmap 2014
PV in Europe (2012)
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Stagnating Europe
10 to 11 GW
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
MARKET EVOLUTION
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5%
IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop
PV In the World (2012)
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IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
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> 35 GW
A Growing Global PV Market
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PV in the Global Electricity Mix
Today 0.5 % 2020
IEA
Current
Policies
scenario
IEA 450
Scenario2035
IEA
Current
Policies
scenario
IEA 450
Scenario
30 GW a year 310 GW / 375 TWh 1.3 % 1.4 % 760 GW / 1000 TWh 2.5 % 3.1 %
60 GW a year 520 GW / 620 TWh 2.1 % 2.3 % 1420 GW / 1850 TWh 4.6 % 5.8 %
100 GW a year 800 GW / 960 TWh 3.3 % 3.6 % 2300 GW / 3000 TWh 7.4 % 9.4 %
Table 14: Possible Share of PV Electricity in 2020 and 2035
135 GW in 2013 160 TWh 0.8 % of the Global Electricity Demand.
35 GW in 2013
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IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014
135 GW installed – 2013 was another record year. Still PV produces less than 1% of the World Electricity Consumption The market is still heavily dependent on support policies The growth in 2013 was fulled by 2 countries in Asia: Japan and China (>50%) Europe’s growth has been fueled mainly by 2 countries: Germany: 36 GW – Italy: 18 GW (67%) The post-incentives era will see two separate sets of segments developing: - An energy-savings driven market for prosumers
- A power generation market for utility-scale PV
Challenges are numerous and complex: grid and electricity market Integration, profitability of incumbent players, … Will 2014 be the year of a widespread development of PV ?
Page 25
Conclusions
European Photovoltaic Industry Association
Renewable Energy House
Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1040 Brussels - Belgium
T +32 (0)2 465 38 84 - F +32 (0)2 400 10 10
[email protected] - www.epia.org
www.epia.org
THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION
This document was presented by Gaëtan Masson
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