Transcript
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EGYPT POPULATIONPROJECTIONS
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Egypt DemographicIndicators
Population (2004): 68.6 millionPercent of males: 51.1%Percent urban: 42.5%Birth rate: 26.1Death rate: 6.5Total fertility rate: 3.2 child/womanLife expectancy: 67.1(M) 71.5(F)Marriage rate: 7.7 per thousandDivorce rate: 1.1 per thousand
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Egypt DemographicIndicators
Labor force size: 20.6 millionUnemployment rate:10.7%Pre- university students 15.3 millionPrimary stage: 49.6%Preparatory stage: 27.8%Secondary stage:22.6%
University students 1.5 millionFemales :47.5%
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Population Policy QuantitativeObjectives 2002-2017
Indicators Target
2007 2012 2017
Crude Birth Rate (‰) 24.6 21.3 17.3
Crude Death Rate (‰) 5.7 5.4 5.4
Rate of Natural Increase (%) 1.89 1.59 1.19
TFR 2.92 2.51 2.1
CPR 63 67 73
Maternal Mortality Ratio per100,000 birth
66 51 40
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This presentation illustrates theassumptions and main results of the 4projections conducted recently. The 4projections used the cohort componentmethod.
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Existing population Projections
This presentation illustrates theassumptions and main results of the 4projections conducted recently. The 4projections used the cohort componentmethod.
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I. Population and LaborForce in Egypt,Egypt 2020 Project
II. The Policy Project, Egypt's PopulationProjections, 2000-2017
III. CAPMAS, Egypt’s PopulationProjections,1996-2021
IV. CDCEgypt’s Population Projections,1996-2021
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I. Egypt 2020
Egypt 2020 project conducted a study on population andlabor force in Egypt, which started by populationprojections for each of the 6 regions separately:
urban governorates,urban lowerEgypt,rural lowerEgypt,urban upperEgypt,rural upperEgypt,frontier governorates.
5 different political scenarios
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Main assumptions:
Fertility: fertility level will decrease over time and thepace of change will differ across regions and bypolitical scenarios.
Mortality: Life expectancy will increase over time andthe pace of change will differ by political scenarios.
Internal migration: mobility between the 6 regions willdiffer by political scenarios in terms of direction andmagnitude.
International migration was not considered.
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Male FemaleRegion 2000 2020 2000 2020
Urban 66.8 70.8 68.8 72.8
U lower 66.8 70.8 68.8 72.8R lower 65.8 69.8 67.8 71.8U upper 65.8 69.8 67.8 71.8R upper 64.8 68.8 66.8 70.8frontier 66.8 70.8 68.8 72.8
Expectation of life at birth
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TFR by regions
L M HRegion 2000 2020 2020 2020
Urban 2.68 1.92 2.10 2.31U lower 2.52 1.73 1.96 2.26R lower 3.23 2.10 2.33 2.65U upper 3.56 2.38 2.59 2.86R upper 4.80 2.98 3.26 3.65frontier 3.73 2.42 2.64 2.94
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Projected population
Year L M H
2000 64.37 64.43 64.5
2005 71.14 71.37 71.65
2010 78.09 78.67 79.38
2015 84.59 85.78 87
2020 90.2 92.06 94.17
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II. The Policy Project
The Policy project in Egypt conducted astudy on “Egypt population projections2000-2017” in 2002.1996 Population census of Egypt was takenas a base year for the projection usingSpectrum software package.
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Main assumptions:Mortality component: the model life table used isthe UN General model.
Migration component :the net migration isassumed to be negligible.
Fertility: it was assumed that there would be threeassumptions for total fertility rates along theperiod (2000-2017) as follow:
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Assumed TFR
High assumption:TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1)in 2017.
Medium assumption:TFR reach replacement level fertility (TFR=2.1) in2027. And the expected TFR for 2017 =2.5
Low assumption:TFRwill remain constant at its level (3.5) in 2000up to 2017
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Projected population
Year L M H
2002 67.0 67.0 67.1
2007 74.0 74.4 75.3
2012 80.7 81.9 84.7
2017 86.4 88.8 94.6
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III. CAPMAS, Egypt’s PopulationProjections,1996-2021
The Central Agency forPublicMobilization and Statistic conducteda project labeled “Impact ofpopulation increase on developmentin Egypt” which included populationprojections based on 1996 census.
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YEAR MALES FEMALES
1996 65.1 69
2001 67.1 71.5
2006 69.2 73.6
2011 70.9 75.5
2016 72.5 77.2
2021 73.9 78.7
Expectation of life at birth
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Main assumptions:Fertility component: it was assumed thatthere would be two assumptions for totalfertility rates along the period (1996-2021) :
High assumption: fertility would be constantalong the period
Low assumption: fertility would achieve2.09 in 2021
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Main assumptions:Migration component was neglected.
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Projected population
Year M H
1996 58.7 58.7
2001 65 65.0
2006 71.5 72.6
2011 78.2 81.1
2016 84.7 90.4
2021 90.8 100.2
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Comparison between projected populationfromdifferent studies
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Comparison between projected populationdifferent studies
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