Dr. David Ellis Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System
Post on 13-Mar-2016
112 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Transcript
Quantifying Transportation NeedsQuantifying Transportation Needsand Assessing Revenue Options:and Assessing Revenue Options:
The Texas ExperienceThe Texas Experiencepresented topresented to
The Arkansas Blue Ribbon The Arkansas Blue Ribbon Committee on Highway FinanceCommittee on Highway Finance
Dr. David EllisResearch Scientist
Texas Transportation InstituteThe Texas A&M University System
College Station, Texas
Phone: 979.845.6165E-mail: d-ellis@tamu.edu
Two EffortsTwo EffortsThe 2030 Committee to
Determine Transportation Needs and Recommend Investment Level
The TRENDS Model to Assess Revenue Alternatives
Desired Mobility Level
Analytical ProcessAnalytical Process
Investment Required
Current/Future
Revenue Stream
Current/Future
Expense Stream
Economic ImpactBenefit/Cost
TheTRENDSModel
The2030
Committee
The 2030 Committee Needs The 2030 Committee Needs AssessmentAssessment
Needs Determination Needs Determination Process SummaryProcess SummaryTravel demand modelsPeak period speedsRegular delay and incident/irregular delayCalculate performance measuresIdentify road sections over congestion
thresholdEstimate road needed to accomplish
scenarioGroup by area type and functional classEstimate cost for area/functional class
additionsAdd interchange and right-of-way costs
Urban Mobility Analysis Urban Mobility Analysis OverviewOverview
Performance Measures• Peak and free-flow travel speed• Delay reductions from signal
coordination,• access mgmt, incident clearance,
ramp metering• Texas Congestion Index • Delay per “commuter” • Total delay and extra fuel costs
Types of BenefitsTypes of BenefitsDelay savings – compared to free-flowFuel savings – simple estimate (% of
delay)Reduced cost of goods and services
(productivity)Business Effects
◦Economic impact of construction◦Business profitability & job creation
Local tax revenue
Maintain Economic Competitiveness
Reduce Congestion
Current Funding Trend
Prevent Worsening Congestion
Inadequate Mobility Investment
MINIMUM
Delay Hours per Commuter in 2030
Mobility Investment and Congestion Mobility Investment and Congestion MitigationMitigation
Costs of Improvements and Costs of Improvements and CongestionCongestion
Total Investment Needed: 2010 to Total Investment Needed: 2010 to 20302030(in 2008 $)(in 2008 $)
2030 Need Area Investment Required
Pavements $ 89 Billion
Bridges $ 36 Billion
Urban Mobility $ 171 Billion
Rural Mobility and Safety Projects $ 17 Billion
TOTAL $ 313 Billion
The Transportation The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination Needs Determination System (TRENDS) ModelSystem (TRENDS) Model
Dynamic and InteractiveDynamic and InteractiveAnalytical Planning ToolAnalytical Planning ToolWeb-basedMenu DrivenAllows User to Make Choices
TRENDS Model ProcessTRENDS Model ProcessGallons of Fuel UsedPopulationRelationship of Fuel Used to
PopulationFuel EfficiencyFuel Used/Fuel Efficiency = VMTFuture Population yields Future
Fuel Use and VMT
The Relationship Between The Relationship Between Gasoline Used and Gasoline Used and PopulationPopulation
Relationship Between Diesel Relationship Between Diesel Fuel and PopulationFuel and Population
68 Variables68 VariablesTaxesFeesMaintenance LevelsFuel EconomyInflation RatePopulation
Report FormatsReport FormatsTabular FormRevenue and Expense StatementCharts
Backcasting Using the TRENDS Model
Absolute Mean Value of Error: 1992-2008
Gasoline Revenues: 2.19 % Diesel Revenues:2.68 % Registration Fee Revenues:
2.55 %
Alternative Fuel Economy Alternative Fuel Economy ScenariosScenarios
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Mile
s Pe
r G
allo
n"Low" Scenario" "Average" Scenario "High" Scenario
PROJECTED REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES
Total RevenuesMaintenance and
Operating ExpendituresNew Capacity Expenditures
Annual Balance of Funds Cumulative Balance
Fiscal Year
2010 $8,758,866,295 $5,719,566,241 $0 $3,039,300,054 $3,039,300,0542011 $8,666,176,935 $6,199,735,250 $0 $2,466,441,685 $5,505,741,7392012 $7,331,042,188 $6,565,611,249 $0 $765,430,938 $6,271,172,6772013 $7,394,794,904 $6,662,663,504 $0 $732,131,400 $7,003,304,0772014 $7,455,331,884 $6,788,181,923 $0 $667,149,961 $7,670,454,0382015 $6,509,064,724 $7,131,845,147 $0 -$622,780,423 $7,047,673,6142016 $6,558,673,619 $6,951,339,715 $0 -$392,666,095 $6,655,007,5192017 $6,582,076,715 $7,063,421,961 $0 -$481,345,245 $6,173,662,2742018 $6,600,459,874 $7,224,842,844 $0 -$624,382,971 $5,549,279,3032019 $6,611,094,702 $7,393,445,846 $0 -$782,351,144 $4,766,928,1592020 $6,612,209,268 $8,711,630,578 $0 -$2,099,421,310 $2,667,506,8492021 $6,603,964,888 $8,999,905,699 $0 -$2,395,940,811 $271,566,0372022 $6,584,919,464 $9,297,115,473 $0 -$2,712,196,009 -$2,440,629,9722023 $6,553,222,123 $9,636,769,543 $0 -$3,083,547,420 -$5,524,177,3912024 $6,506,690,326 $9,952,306,197 $0 -$3,445,615,871 -$8,969,793,2632025 $6,442,514,351 $10,319,739,231 $0 -$3,877,224,880 -$12,847,018,1422026 $6,371,518,932 $10,669,747,152 $0 -$4,298,228,221 -$17,145,246,3632027 $6,293,285,063 $10,933,478,274 $0 -$4,640,193,212 -$21,785,439,5752028 $6,207,281,506 $11,223,846,556 $0 -$5,016,565,050 -$26,802,004,6252029 $6,113,058,615 $11,634,934,560 $0 -$5,521,875,946 -$32,323,880,5702030 $6,010,008,576 $12,062,368,227 $0 -$6,052,359,651 -$38,376,240,2212031 $5,960,528,848 $12,381,798,447 $0 -$6,421,269,599 -$44,797,509,8202032 $5,922,511,254 $12,728,902,058 $0 -$6,806,390,804 -$51,603,900,6252033 $5,895,448,048 $13,209,382,882 $0 -$7,313,934,834 -$58,917,835,4592034 $5,878,939,290 $13,708,972,798 $0 -$7,830,033,508 -$66,747,868,9672035 $5,872,534,080 $14,228,432,867 $0 -$8,355,898,787 -$75,103,767,7542036 $5,876,342,534 $14,768,554,491 $0 -$8,892,211,957 -$83,995,979,7112037 $5,884,909,720 $15,330,160,627 $0 -$9,445,250,907 -$93,441,230,6182038 $5,898,161,942 $15,914,107,045 $0 -$10,015,945,103 -$103,457,175,7212039 $5,911,436,995 $16,521,283,637 $0 -$10,609,846,642 -$114,067,022,3632040 $5,924,301,110 $17,152,615,780 $0 -$11,228,314,670 -$125,295,337,033
TOTAL: $201,791,368,771 $327,086,705,804 $0 -$125,295,337,033
Questions?Questions?
David EllisDavid EllisResearch ScientistResearch ScientistTexas Transportation InstituteTexas Transportation InstituteThe Texas A&M University The Texas A&M University SystemSystemCollege Station, Texas 77845College Station, Texas 77845
979.845.6165979.845.6165d-ellis@tamu.edud-ellis@tamu.edu
Other Slides
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
Population RegisteredVehicles
Vehicle MilesTraveled
State-MaintainedLane Miles
Annu
al P
erce
nt In
crea
se P
er Y
ear
Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Effe
ctiv
e Ta
x R
ate
(Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n)
Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for InflationInflation
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Effe
ctiv
e Fu
el T
ax R
ate
(Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n)
Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by H.C.I.H.C.I.
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Mile
s Pe
r Gal
lon
Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Texas:Texas:
Gasoline Powered VehiclesGasoline Powered Vehicles
$105
$110
$115
$120
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
$150
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Ann
ual F
uel T
ax P
aid
Fuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax PaidFuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax Paid(assuming 12,000 annual miles)(assuming 12,000 annual miles)
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2029
Reve
nue
in B
illio
ns o
f $Gasoline Tax Revenues Diesel Tax Revenues
Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues TexasTexas
Over the next 20 years:
• VMT is projected to increase 33 percent
• Fuel tax revenue is projected to decrease 23 percent
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
WW IIRationing
Nominal Price: +33%Real Price: +20%
VMT: -2.5%
Nominal Price: +46%Real Price: +38%
VMT: -3.3%
Nominal Price: +36%Real Price: +23%
VMT: -1.0%
Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009(Source: Federal Highway Administration)(Source: Federal Highway Administration)
0.200.25
0.610.67 0.67
0.84 0.850.81
0.78
0.31
0.23
0.51
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
R-S
quar
ed V
alue
R-Squared Value - Price of Gasoline and Per Capita Consumption by Month
August 1997 through July 2009
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
-60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%
Percent Change in Consumption Per Capita
Perc
ent C
hang
e in
Pric
eConsumption UpPrice Up
Consumption UpPrice Down
Consumption DownPrice Down
Consumption DownPrice Up
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Consumption of Gasoline Per Capita Versus Year-Over-Year in Percent Change in Gasoline
Price in Texas(All Months - August 1997 through July 2009)
top related