Dr. David Ellis Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System

Quantifying Transportation NeedsQuantifying Transportation Needsand Assessing Revenue Options:and Assessing Revenue Options:

The Texas ExperienceThe Texas Experiencepresented topresented to

The Arkansas Blue Ribbon The Arkansas Blue Ribbon Committee on Highway FinanceCommittee on Highway Finance

Dr. David EllisResearch Scientist

Texas Transportation InstituteThe Texas A&M University System

College Station, Texas

Phone: 979.845.6165E-mail: [email protected]

Two EffortsTwo EffortsThe 2030 Committee to

Determine Transportation Needs and Recommend Investment Level

The TRENDS Model to Assess Revenue Alternatives

Desired Mobility Level

Analytical ProcessAnalytical Process

Investment Required

Current/Future

Revenue Stream

Current/Future

Expense Stream

Economic ImpactBenefit/Cost

TheTRENDSModel

The2030

Committee

The 2030 Committee Needs The 2030 Committee Needs AssessmentAssessment

Needs Determination Needs Determination Process SummaryProcess SummaryTravel demand modelsPeak period speedsRegular delay and incident/irregular delayCalculate performance measuresIdentify road sections over congestion

thresholdEstimate road needed to accomplish

scenarioGroup by area type and functional classEstimate cost for area/functional class

additionsAdd interchange and right-of-way costs

Urban Mobility Analysis Urban Mobility Analysis OverviewOverview

Performance Measures• Peak and free-flow travel speed• Delay reductions from signal

coordination,• access mgmt, incident clearance,

ramp metering• Texas Congestion Index • Delay per “commuter” • Total delay and extra fuel costs

Types of BenefitsTypes of BenefitsDelay savings – compared to free-flowFuel savings – simple estimate (% of

delay)Reduced cost of goods and services

(productivity)Business Effects

◦Economic impact of construction◦Business profitability & job creation

Local tax revenue

Maintain Economic Competitiveness

Reduce Congestion

Current Funding Trend

Prevent Worsening Congestion

Inadequate Mobility Investment

MINIMUM

Delay Hours per Commuter in 2030

Mobility Investment and Congestion Mobility Investment and Congestion MitigationMitigation

Costs of Improvements and Costs of Improvements and CongestionCongestion

Total Investment Needed: 2010 to Total Investment Needed: 2010 to 20302030(in 2008 $)(in 2008 $)

2030 Need Area Investment Required

Pavements $ 89 Billion

Bridges $ 36 Billion

Urban Mobility $ 171 Billion

Rural Mobility and Safety Projects $ 17 Billion

TOTAL $ 313 Billion

The Transportation The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination Needs Determination System (TRENDS) ModelSystem (TRENDS) Model

Dynamic and InteractiveDynamic and InteractiveAnalytical Planning ToolAnalytical Planning ToolWeb-basedMenu DrivenAllows User to Make Choices

TRENDS Model ProcessTRENDS Model ProcessGallons of Fuel UsedPopulationRelationship of Fuel Used to

PopulationFuel EfficiencyFuel Used/Fuel Efficiency = VMTFuture Population yields Future

Fuel Use and VMT

The Relationship Between The Relationship Between Gasoline Used and Gasoline Used and PopulationPopulation

Relationship Between Diesel Relationship Between Diesel Fuel and PopulationFuel and Population

68 Variables68 VariablesTaxesFeesMaintenance LevelsFuel EconomyInflation RatePopulation

Report FormatsReport FormatsTabular FormRevenue and Expense StatementCharts

Backcasting Using the TRENDS Model

Absolute Mean Value of Error: 1992-2008

Gasoline Revenues: 2.19 % Diesel Revenues:2.68 % Registration Fee Revenues:

2.55 %

Alternative Fuel Economy Alternative Fuel Economy ScenariosScenarios

0

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2006

2008

2010

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2040

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n"Low" Scenario" "Average" Scenario "High" Scenario

PROJECTED REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES 

Total RevenuesMaintenance and

Operating ExpendituresNew Capacity Expenditures

Annual Balance of Funds Cumulative Balance

 Fiscal Year

2010 $8,758,866,295 $5,719,566,241 $0 $3,039,300,054 $3,039,300,0542011 $8,666,176,935 $6,199,735,250 $0 $2,466,441,685 $5,505,741,7392012 $7,331,042,188 $6,565,611,249 $0 $765,430,938 $6,271,172,6772013 $7,394,794,904 $6,662,663,504 $0 $732,131,400 $7,003,304,0772014 $7,455,331,884 $6,788,181,923 $0 $667,149,961 $7,670,454,0382015 $6,509,064,724 $7,131,845,147 $0 -$622,780,423 $7,047,673,6142016 $6,558,673,619 $6,951,339,715 $0 -$392,666,095 $6,655,007,5192017 $6,582,076,715 $7,063,421,961 $0 -$481,345,245 $6,173,662,2742018 $6,600,459,874 $7,224,842,844 $0 -$624,382,971 $5,549,279,3032019 $6,611,094,702 $7,393,445,846 $0 -$782,351,144 $4,766,928,1592020 $6,612,209,268 $8,711,630,578 $0 -$2,099,421,310 $2,667,506,8492021 $6,603,964,888 $8,999,905,699 $0 -$2,395,940,811 $271,566,0372022 $6,584,919,464 $9,297,115,473 $0 -$2,712,196,009 -$2,440,629,9722023 $6,553,222,123 $9,636,769,543 $0 -$3,083,547,420 -$5,524,177,3912024 $6,506,690,326 $9,952,306,197 $0 -$3,445,615,871 -$8,969,793,2632025 $6,442,514,351 $10,319,739,231 $0 -$3,877,224,880 -$12,847,018,1422026 $6,371,518,932 $10,669,747,152 $0 -$4,298,228,221 -$17,145,246,3632027 $6,293,285,063 $10,933,478,274 $0 -$4,640,193,212 -$21,785,439,5752028 $6,207,281,506 $11,223,846,556 $0 -$5,016,565,050 -$26,802,004,6252029 $6,113,058,615 $11,634,934,560 $0 -$5,521,875,946 -$32,323,880,5702030 $6,010,008,576 $12,062,368,227 $0 -$6,052,359,651 -$38,376,240,2212031 $5,960,528,848 $12,381,798,447 $0 -$6,421,269,599 -$44,797,509,8202032 $5,922,511,254 $12,728,902,058 $0 -$6,806,390,804 -$51,603,900,6252033 $5,895,448,048 $13,209,382,882 $0 -$7,313,934,834 -$58,917,835,4592034 $5,878,939,290 $13,708,972,798 $0 -$7,830,033,508 -$66,747,868,9672035 $5,872,534,080 $14,228,432,867 $0 -$8,355,898,787 -$75,103,767,7542036 $5,876,342,534 $14,768,554,491 $0 -$8,892,211,957 -$83,995,979,7112037 $5,884,909,720 $15,330,160,627 $0 -$9,445,250,907 -$93,441,230,6182038 $5,898,161,942 $15,914,107,045 $0 -$10,015,945,103 -$103,457,175,7212039 $5,911,436,995 $16,521,283,637 $0 -$10,609,846,642 -$114,067,022,3632040 $5,924,301,110 $17,152,615,780 $0 -$11,228,314,670 -$125,295,337,033

TOTAL: $201,791,368,771 $327,086,705,804 $0 -$125,295,337,033 

Questions?Questions?

David EllisDavid EllisResearch ScientistResearch ScientistTexas Transportation InstituteTexas Transportation InstituteThe Texas A&M University The Texas A&M University SystemSystemCollege Station, Texas 77845College Station, Texas 77845

[email protected]@tamu.edu

Other Slides

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

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3.50%

4.00%

Population RegisteredVehicles

Vehicle MilesTraveled

State-MaintainedLane Miles

Annu

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Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007

$0.00

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

$0.12

$0.14

$0.16

$0.18

$0.20

1991

1993

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1999

2001

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2007

Effe

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(Cen

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Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for InflationInflation

$0.00

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

$0.12

$0.14

$0.16

$0.18

$0.20

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2007

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(Cen

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Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by H.C.I.H.C.I.

15.0

15.5

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20.0

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2007

2008

Mile

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Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Texas:Texas:

Gasoline Powered VehiclesGasoline Powered Vehicles

$105

$110

$115

$120

$125

$130

$135

$140

$145

$150

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2008

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ual F

uel T

ax P

aid

Fuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax PaidFuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax Paid(assuming 12,000 annual miles)(assuming 12,000 annual miles)

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

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2018

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2027

2029

Reve

nue

in B

illio

ns o

f $Gasoline Tax Revenues Diesel Tax Revenues

Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues TexasTexas

Over the next 20 years:

• VMT is projected to increase 33 percent

• Fuel tax revenue is projected to decrease 23 percent

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1936

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WW IIRationing

Nominal Price: +33%Real Price: +20%

VMT: -2.5%

Nominal Price: +46%Real Price: +38%

VMT: -3.3%

Nominal Price: +36%Real Price: +23%

VMT: -1.0%

Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009(Source: Federal Highway Administration)(Source: Federal Highway Administration)

0.200.25

0.610.67 0.67

0.84 0.850.81

0.78

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0.23

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R-Squared Value - Price of Gasoline and Per Capita Consumption by Month

August 1997 through July 2009

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

-60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Percent Change in Consumption Per Capita

Perc

ent C

hang

e in

Pric

eConsumption UpPrice Up

Consumption UpPrice Down

Consumption DownPrice Down

Consumption DownPrice Up

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Consumption of Gasoline Per Capita Versus Year-Over-Year in Percent Change in Gasoline

Price in Texas(All Months - August 1997 through July 2009)