Dash Climate Nyu Mar2013
Post on 07-Nov-2014
1200 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Transcript
Climate Science, Impacts, Risk Management, and What We Can Do NYU Seminar Talk March 2013
Jan W. Dash, PhD Climate Initiative Chair, Unitarian Universalist UN Office Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker
1 2/13/13
Outline – Overview of Climate
Climate Science – Most relevant fact = ◦ Recent Global Warming is due to us
Climate Impacts: Many, almost all bad ◦ Example Sea Level Rise ◦ So What?
Risk Management & What can we do? Ethics: Why should we do anything? The Pseudoscience Deniers ◦ What do they say? Who supports them?
2 2/13/13
Science Fact: Recent Global warming exists, due to humans. Natural variation out (El Niños/La Niñas, volcanoes, sun): Average temperature going UP
3 2/13/13
Global Warming / Climate Impacts
Many impacts – practically all bad We see impacts now, only faint rumbling
of future impacts if we do not act ◦ Less FOOD – crops die at high temperatures ◦ Less WATER – glaciers, snow packs melting ◦ More DISEASE – insect vectors moving north ◦ More WARS – over food, water
Other examples: Sea level rise SLR, Ocean acidification, Extreme weather (Sandy)
4 2/13/13
U. S. Navy is concerned
Sea Level Rise Scenario: 3 - 6 feet by 2100
5 2/13/13
NOAA data, projections to 2100
6 2/13/13
SLR and Global Warming
7 2/13/13
So What? – Vulnerable US (NOAA) East Coast “hot spot” for SLR
8 2/13/13
Migration, war, national security
Millions worldwide now living in coastal regions will be displaced by rising seas
Where will they go? More wars will result
Pentagon US National Security issue ◦ Quadrennial Defense Review 2010
9 2/13/13
Small Island Nations Threatened (IPCC Extreme Climate report 2011). Following Talk this seminar
10 2/13/13
Ocean Acidification, Higher Temperatures, and the Food Chain Ocean absorbs CO2 => carbonic acid Ocean acidification hurts food chain ◦ Algae, shellfish, coral reefs… => fewer FISH
Higher sea temperature hurts food chain ◦ Phytoplankton decrease => fewer FISH
11 2/13/13
What about SANDY in NJ/NY?
Global warming puts more energy into the weather system for extreme events
Specifics making Sandy worse ◦ Sea level rise. Higher sea temperature. Also:
Arctic T up more jet stream instability ◦ Maybe some influence on Sandy turning left
Details complicated, and exact attribution not possible, but probably global warming made Sandy worse.
12 2/13/13
Sandy, Jet Stream, Global Warming
2/13/13 13
Climate Risk Management
Recognition of risks: 2 types ◦ Average risk: probable, low impact ◦ Tail risk: less probable, high impact
Rational response to risk - lower it! The best way to think about the response
to climate is RISK MANAGEMENT ◦ Stop BAU = Business As Usual ◦ If BAU, today’s tail climate risk becomes
tomorrow’s average climate risk
14 2/13/13
What Can We Do: Climate Mitigation – no silver bullet. Progress, need MORE Action by individuals Action by organizations ◦ Corporations, Universities, Faith-based, NGOs
Action at all levels of government ◦ City, State, Regional, National, International
Action to support non-fossil energy Mitigation Volume IPCC = 1,000 pages Please note: Citizens Climate Lobby ◦ Carbon Tax + Dividend back to people
15 2/13/13
Climate Ethics Climate justice: Poor have the smallest
effect on climate – are hurt the worst However, no place to hide ◦ U.S. will be hit very hard if BAU prevails
Intergenerational ethics: Our descendants ◦ More humane and cheaper for preventive
action now rather than disaster adaptive action by our descendants in the future
16 2/13/13
Climate Science Deniers / Contrarians / Faux Skeptics “We Have No Climate Risk” 4 trenches:
1. Deny global warming 2. Deny human influence on climate 3. Minimize climate impact risk 4. Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation
Oppose climate action, renewable energy Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes)
“Science can’t prove so we shouldn’t act” Cherry pick, propose flimsy arguments
17 2/13/13
Contrarian/Denier Pseudoscience Disinformation – Ex: Arctic ice loss
18 2/13/13
North Carolina and Cnut the Great
(Reuters) - Lawmakers in North Carolina voted to ignore studies predicting a rapid rise in sea level due to climate change and postpone planning for the consequences.
Cnut the Great ordered the sea not to rise 1000 years ago
2/13/13 19
Who Supports Contrarian Deniers?
Fossil Fuel Co. FFC – Exxon Mobile, Koch ◦ FFCs want to be able to burn every available
carbon molecule (gas/oil/coal) in the ground ◦ Otherwise STRANDED ASSETS ◦ Would reduce FFC $wealth, $stock price
Libertarians: Tea Party, Koch, Faux News... ◦ Basically oppose government action ◦ But governments must act to mitigate climate ◦ So libertarians try to “kill the message”
20 2/13/13
Here are some resources IPCC Science Report 2007
Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment
Skeptical Science website – see “one liners”
UU-UNO Climate Portal: soup to nuts climate
U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (2010)
21 2/13/13
Bottom Line – We have a big problem and we can solve it Human activities are causing recent global
warming trend of climate change Climate impacts mostly bad, observed now,
and will become far worse if we do not act Climate action is opposed by strong forces NOT too late to prevent worst impacts You can help
22 2/13/13
Thank You
2/13/13 23
top related