Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 10 Introduction to Time Series Modeling and Forecasting.
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Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter 10
Introduction to Time Series Modeling and Forecasting
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Figure 10.1 The components of a time series
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Section 10.3
Forecasting Using Smoothing Techniques
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Figure 10.2 MINITAB plot of quarterly power loads
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Figure 10.3 MINITAB plot of quarterly power loads and 4-point moving average
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Figure 10.4 MINITAB printout of exponentially smoothed quarterly power loads
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Figure 10.5 MINITAB plot of exponentially smoothed quarterly power loads
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Section 10.4
Forecasting: The Regression Approach
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Figure 10.6 SAS scatterplot of sales data
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Figure 10.7 SAS printout for straight-line model of yearly sales revenue
continued on next slide
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Figure 10.7 SAS printout for straight-line model of yearly sales revenue (cont’d)
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Figure 10.8 SAS printout for quarterly power load model
continued on next slide
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Figure 10.8 SAS printout for quarterly power load model (cont’d)
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Section 10.5
Autocorrelation and Autoregressive
Error Models
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Figure 10.9a Autocorrelation functions for several first-order auto regressive error models: Rt = 1Rt-1 + t
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Figure 10.9b Autocorrelation functions for several first-order auto regressive error models: Rt = 1Rt-1 + t
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Figure 10.9c Autocorrelation functions for several first-order auto regressive error models: Rt = 1Rt-1 + t
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Section 10.6
Other Models for Autocorrelated Errors
(Optional)
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Figure 10.10 Autocorrelations for a first-order moving average model: Rt = t + t-1
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Figure 10.11 Autocorrelations for a fourth-order moving average model
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Section 10.7
Constructing Time Series Models
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Figure 10.12 A seasonal time series model
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Figure 10.13 Seasonal model for quarterly data using dummy variables
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Section 10.8
Fitting Time Series Models with Autoregressive Errors
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Figure 10.14 SAS printout for model of annual sales revenue
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Figure 10.15 MINITAB residual plot annual sales model
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Figure 10.16 SAS printout for annual sales model with autoregressive errors
continued on next slide
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Figure 10.16 SAS printout for annual sales model with autoregressive errors (cont’d)
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Section 10.9
Forecasting with Time Series Autoregressive Models
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Figure 10.17 SAS printout of forecasts of annual sales revenue using straight-line model with autoregressive errors
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Section 10.10
Seasonal Time Series Models: An Example
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Figure 10.18 Water usage time series
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Figure 10.19 SAS printout for time series model of water usage
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Figure 10.20 Forecasts of water usage
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