Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Forecast€¦ · Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Forecast U.S. Highlights 2013-2018 Robert Pepper, VP Global Technology
Post on 27-Jun-2020
13 Views
Preview:
Transcript
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Forecast U.S. Highlights 2013-2018
Robert Pepper, VP Global Technology Policy Doug Webster, VP Service Provider Marketing February 2014
2 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership
Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
3 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2013 7.0 Billion 2018 10.2 Billion
2013 1.4 Mbps 2018 2.5 Mbps
2013 4.1 Billion 2018 4.9 Billion
2013 53% of Traffic 2018 69% of Traffic
4 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
5 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line US Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 8-Fold from 2013─2018
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
1.9 EB
0.4 EB
2.7 EB
1.3 EB
0.9 EB
0.6 EB
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
50% CAGR 2013–2018
6 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%)
Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%)
Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%)
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share
7 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (3.7%,1.5%) Tablets (8.7%,13.9%)
Laptops (2.8%,2.5%) M2M (9.1%,40.2%)
Smartphones (48.2%,41.1%) Non-Smartphones (27.6%,0.7%)
United States Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Have 41% Share; Non-Smartphones Decline Rapidly M2M and Tablets Gain Share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share
8 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections
2013 2018
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
21%
65%
45%
15%
14%
17%
10%
54%
93%
83%
61%
55%
47%
36%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
9 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
U.S. Leads Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic
2013 2018
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
88%
98%
95%
75%
81%
85%
76%
96%
100%
100%
95%
96%
95%
90%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
10 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Non-Smartphone 10.8 45
M2M 61 451
Wearable 78 345
Smartphone 529 2,672
Tablet 1,374 5,609
Laptop 2,455 5,095
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2013 MBs per Month
2018 MBs per Month
Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month
11 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r Con
nect
ions
4G 3G 2G
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
59%
68%
29%
3%
26%
15%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
48%
44%
8%
12 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r Con
nect
ions
4G 3G 2G
United States Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share—U.S. Leads 4G Migration
52%
62%
13%
25%
41%
7%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
47%
45%
8%
13 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r Con
nect
ions
4G 3G 2G
Western Europe Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
60%
66%
32%
2%
24%
16%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
14 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r Con
nect
ions
4G 3G 2G
Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
64%
74%
25%
0.1%
27%
9%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
52%
45%
3%
15 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r Con
nect
ions
4G 3G 2G
Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
58%
74%
2%
24%
29%
13%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
52%
38%
9%
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 16 Cisco Confidential 16 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
16 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
In 2013, a 4G connection generated 2.0 GB/mo, 3.7X higher than the 551 MB/mo for non-4G (mostly 3G) connections in North America.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
17 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mbp
s
4G
3G
All Network Types
2G
North America Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 5X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018
24 Mbps
7 Mbps
151 Kbps
5 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
18 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
United States Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G In The US, 4G Will Be Over Three-Fourths of Mobile Traffic by 2018
56%
77%
22%
1%
43%
0.1%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
19 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by 2018
30%
51%
46%
9%
60%
3%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
20 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile File Sharing (2.3%)
Mobile M2M (8.4%)
Mobile Audio (13.9%)
Mobile Web/Data (7.1%)
Mobile Video (68.3%)
United States Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 68 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
50% CAGR 2013–2018
Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share
21 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Top Global Traffic Generating Apps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Android) Facebook Social Media
YouTube Video Streaming
Netflix Video Streaming
TubeMate Video Downloading
Instagram Image Sharing
TuneIn Audio Streaming
SoundCloud Audio Streaming
Flipboard News
Skype Communications
Twitter Communications
Dropbox File Sharing
Spotify Audio Streaming
Pandora Audio Streaming
Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Android) Netflix Video Streaming
Instagram Image Sharing
Dropbox File Sharing
Facebook Social Media
YouTube Video Streaming
Flipboard News
TuneIn Audio Streaming
VLC Media Player Video Streaming
BSPlayer Video Streaming
Spotify Audio Streaming
NYTimes News
Hulu Video Streaming
TubeMate Video Streaming
22 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bill
ions
of M
2M C
onne
ctio
ns 3G
2G
4G
71%
41%
Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G
43% CAGR 2013–2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
28%
35%
51%
14%
50%
9%
2.0 B
1.6 B
1.1 B
0.8 B
0.5 B 0.3 B
* In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014 ,1.5% connections, in 2015 , 3% connections and in 2016 ,5.6% connections are 4G.
34%
64%
41%
56%
47%
48%
23 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mill
ions
of M
2M C
onne
ctio
ns 3G
2G
4G
56%
20%
United States M2M Connection Growth US M2M Connections will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Nearly a Third M2M Connections Will be On 4G
50% CAGR 2013–2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
42%
15%
51%
33%
57%
9%
271 M
207 M
149 M
100 M
63 M
35 M 51%
45%
57%
35%
59%
26%
15% 24%
24 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% w
ith E
mbe
dded
Cel
lula
r Con
nect
ivity
Mill
ions
of C
onne
cted
Wea
rabl
es
22 M
127 M
Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity
177 M
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
52% CAGR 2013–2018
58 M 36 M
88 M
25 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% o
f Sm
artp
hone
Tra
ffic
Mon
thly
Tra
ffic
(PB
)
34
2
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from 2013-2018
61
17
9 4
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
105% CAGR 2013–2018
26 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
United States Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 64% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 57% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013
36%
64%
*Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks
27 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013
48%
52%
*Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks
28 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Mobile Data (57% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (14% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi - Mobile Offload (72% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi - Wi-Fi Only (27% CAGR)
United States IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest
51%
34%
6%
21% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
10%
29 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2G 3G 4G
Mob
ile a
nd O
ffloa
d Tr
affic
from
Mob
ile-
Con
nect
ed D
evic
es
Mobile Traffic
Offload Traffic
US Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018 4G Devices Offloads As Much Traffic As 3G and More Than 2G
64% 64%
50%
50% 36% 36%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
30 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13
Perc
enta
ge o
f Top
1 p
erce
nt
to T
otal
MB
/mo
Top 1 %
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2013 Top 1% Generated10% in Sept 2013—early adopters becoming new normal
24%
16%
52%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
31 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Greater than 5 GB
Greater than 2 GB
Greater than 200 MB
Greater than 20 MB
Greater than 1 MB
Perc
enta
ge o
f Use
rs
Oct-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month
3%
24%
75%
93% 97%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
32 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13
% N
umbe
r of M
obile
Dat
a Pl
ans
Unlimited
Tiered
425 MB
922 MB
739 MB 1,261 MB
1,890 MB
1,081 MB
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
33 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Number of Shared Plans Increase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-12 Sep-13
% N
umbe
r of M
obile
Dat
a Pl
ans
Regular Plans
Shared Plans
648 MB
792 MB
1.4 GB
946 MB
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
34 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tbps
Average Hour Traffic
Busy Hour Traffic
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
35 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013–2018 Get more info—see Tools and Resources
www.cisco.com/go/vni traffic-inquiries@cisco.com
Thank you.
top related