Amarach Economic Recovery Index May 2012
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1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
May 2012
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
May 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 19th to 23rd May 2012 inclusive.
3 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Apr’12: 49% May’12: 48%
Apr’12: 27% May’12: 26%
Apr’12: 21% May’12: 24%
Apr’12: 3% May’12: 2%
Apr’12: 0% May’12: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The consumer outlook has remained relatively unchanged from April to May:
4 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has remained flat at 20.2 in May, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12
Feb Mar Apr'12
May
5 Economic Recovery Index
The Stages of Recovery
May 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1004 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 479 525
The economic
situation in Ireland is
getting worse
47% 47% 46% 32% 42% 51% 55% 52% 42% 51%
The economic
situation is bad but
has stabilized
26% 26% 25% 31% 30% 28% 24% 18% 28% 23%
The economic
situation is bad but
showing a few signs of
improvement
23% 23% 23% 30% 22% 19% 16% 25% 26% 20%
The economic
situation is getting
better and showing
clear signs of
improvement
2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2%
The economic
situation is good and
almost fully recovered
from the recession
* * * 0 1% 1% 0 0 * *
Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
6 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
34%41%44% 42%43%
46%48%
41%43%
52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%
23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%
30%31%25%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60%62%
55%
51%
51%
61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46%44%
33%41%
48%44%
48%47%53%
47%48%48%47%49%42%39%
45%44%50%51%
47%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
7 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%
45%45%50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%
47%
46%41%41%
32%34%39%37%36%39%40%
34%39%
34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
59%
62% 61%60%61%60%56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51%50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%
49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
8 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 3
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
43% 43%42%46%
35%40%39%
30%35% 36%
33%28%27%
14%18%
25%
20%
21% 17%25%
20% 16%11%
16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23% 24%
14%
Oc
t '0
9
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
22%
22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%
20%
20% 21%21%18%
20%13%
15%
18%
17%
17%
17%
21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 25%19%
Oc
t '0
9
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly
9 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: May 2011, 2012 & April 2012
17% 20% 18%
May'11 Apr'12 May'12
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
62% 66%60%
May'11 Apr'12 May'12
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
26% 30% 27%
May'11 Apr'12 May'12
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
26% 28% 27%
May'11 Apr'12 May'12
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 61% 59% 56%
May'11 Apr'12 May'12
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
10 Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Flaithulach
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
May 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1004 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 479 525
Strongly Agree 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 5% 6% 14% 10% 8%
Slightly Agree 30% 31% 28% 31% 33% 25% 24% 33% 36% 24%
Neither/Nor 13% 15% 11% 16% 14% 12% 10% 11% 12% 13%
Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 22% 22% 21% 23% 20% 17% 20% 20%
Strongly Disagree 26% 25% 28% 20% 22% 32% 39% 23% 20% 32%
11 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2012
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
Jun
e
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
Jun
e
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
12 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2012
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r'1
2
Ma
y
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
13 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, May 2012
May 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1004 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 479 525
Enjoyment 56% 57% 55% 58% 53% 53% 58% 59% 61% 52%
Happiness 53% 50% 57% 63% 59% 50% 43% 50% 55% 51%
Stress 45% 38% 51% 56% 48% 46% 45% 33% 47% 42%
Worry 38% 33% 43% 41% 39% 40% 41% 32% 39% 37%
Anxiety 30% 29% 31% 33% 34% 26% 31% 26% 33% 27%
Boredom 25% 24% 26% 42% 31% 22% 17% 16% 25% 25%
Physical Pain 21% 22% 21% 18% 21% 17% 21% 26% 20% 22%
Sadness 19% 16% 23% 21% 27% 17% 18% 15% 18% 21%
Anger 17% 16% 18% 21% 25% 13% 15% 11% 16% 18%
Fear 10% 10% 10% 13% 11% 9% 9% 8% 10% 10%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: May 2012
14 Economic Recovery Index
News From Abroad
Developments in Europe once again haunt the
Irish consumer psyche – the percentage
agreeing that news from abroad makes them
expect recovery soon is right back down to all
time low levels.
But our measures of emotional resilience
appear at least to have stabilised: happiness
and enjoyment still dominate, and stress and
worry are no longer converging with the more
positive emotions.
For Irish marketers, the key task will be to
navigate the uncertainty caused by the
unfolding crisis in Europe, using Irish consumer
resilience to unlock their purses and wallets
rather than live in dread of more rainy days.
A sunny summer will help…
15 Economic Recovery Index
Let’s Get Visual
If you find Amárach’s Economic
Recovery Index useful (and we
know many of you do) then you
might be interested in our data
visualisation initiative with
Delphi Analytics.
We have partnered to create
an extraordinarily powerful
resource online – for free – to
enable marketers and others to
look at the historical trend in
the ERI going back to April
2009 by demographic group,
main bank etc.
Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-
analytics/economic-recovery-index/
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach Research
We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international
clients. We specialise in turning information
into insight; and insight into foresight.
Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a
unique field-only service to universities and
international agencies.
Amárach Research is proud to be:
Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
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