1 Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing July 2012 © Amárach Research
Dec 18, 2014
1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
July 2012
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
July 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 13th to 19th July 2012 inclusive.
3 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
June’12: 50% July’12: 42%
June’12: 29% July’12: 31%
June’12: 20% July’12: 23%
June’12: 1% July’12: 3%
June’12: 0% July’12: 1%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The economic outlook has bounced back to the level last seen in March:
4 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI rose to 22.5 in July, similar to the recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10
MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11
MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12
Feb Mar Apr'12
MayJune July
5 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
34%41%44% 42%43%
46%48%
41%43%
52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%
23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%
30%31%25%25%27%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60%62%
55%
51%
51%
61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46%44%
33%41%
48%44%
48%47%53%
47%48%48%47%49%42%39%
45%44%50%51%
47%43%45%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
6 Economic Recovery Index
Fainter Hearted
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523
Strongly Agree 7% 8% 7% 11% 10% 9% 4% 4% 7% 7%
Slightly Agree 19% 22% 17% 26% 19% 21% 17% 16% 20% 19%
Neither/Nor 10% 11% 10% 15% 14% 10% 10% 6% 10% 11%
Slightly Disagree 23% 23% 23% 23% 25% 22% 22% 23% 24% 22%
Strongly Disagree 34% 34% 34% 20% 26% 33% 42% 45% 33% 35%
7 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%
45%45%50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%
47%
46%41%41%
32%34%39%37%36%39%40%
34%39%
34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%38%36%38%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
59%
62% 61%60%61%60%56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51%50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%
49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%43%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
8 Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Uncomfortable
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523
Strongly Agree 9% 11% 8% 10% 7% 10% 5% 13% 11% 8%
Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 28% 28% 29% 23% 34% 32% 26%
Neither/Nor 12% 13% 12% 16% 17% 10% 10% 10% 13% 12%
Slightly Disagree 24% 26% 22% 22% 24% 23% 32% 21% 24% 24%
Strongly Disagree 23% 18% 29% 23% 22% 26% 27% 20% 17% 29%
9 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 3
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
43% 43%42%46%
35%40%39%
30%35% 36%
33%28%27%
14%18%
25%
20%
21% 17%25%
20% 16%11%
16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23% 24%
14% 12%17%
Oc
t '0
9
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
22%
22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%
20%
20% 21%21%18%
20%13%
15%
18%
17%
17%
17%
21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 25%19% 17%20%
Oc
t '0
9
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly
10 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: July 2010, 2011, 2012 & June 2012
20% 17% 15% 18%
July'10 July'11 June'12 July'12
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
64% 62% 63% 66%
July'10 July'11 June'12 July'12
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
27% 26% 25% 25%
July'10 July'11 June'12 July'12
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
30% 26% 23% 25%
July'10 July'11 June'12 July'12
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to
62% 59% 55% 56%
July'10 July'11 June'12 July'12
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
11 Economic Recovery Index
De-Leveraging
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523
Strongly Agree 5% 7% 4% 9% 7% 4% 1% 5% 5% 6%
Slightly Agree 12% 13% 11% 13% 16% 13% 8% 11% 13% 12%
Neither/Nor 18% 21% 16% 26% 15% 14% 17% 21% 19% 18%
Slightly Disagree 25% 25% 25% 20% 30% 26% 22% 24% 29% 21%
Strongly Disagree 38% 32% 43% 27% 31% 43% 50% 38% 33% 42%
12 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2012
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
Jun
e
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
Jun
e
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
Jun
e
July
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
13 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2012
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r'1
2
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
14 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, July 2012
July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523
Enjoyment 58% 60% 56% 63% 53% 51% 60% 63% 63% 53%
Happiness 52% 52% 52% 52% 56% 54% 48% 50% 54% 50%
Stress 39% 38% 40% 41% 48% 47% 38% 25% 41% 37%
Worry 35% 33% 37% 36% 41% 40% 36% 26% 36% 34%
Anxiety 27% 26% 27% 28% 30% 29% 25% 23% 31% 23%
Boredom 27% 28% 27% 53% 28% 24% 20% 17% 27% 27%
Physical Pain 22% 22% 22% 22% 17% 20% 24% 26% 21% 23%
Sadness 19% 15% 23% 19% 23% 14% 16% 21% 20% 18%
Anger 15% 15% 15% 16% 19% 16% 11% 10% 16% 13%
Fear 10% 9% 10% 15% 10% 12% 8% 5% 12% 7%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: July 2012
15 Economic Recovery Index
Better News From Abroad
There was a marked improvement in consumer
sentiment in July – buoyed up it would seem by
the EU Summit at the end of June which
promises a better deal for Ireland.
This is shown in the rise in the percentage of
people in our survey who are more optimistic as
a result of ‘news from abroad’.
After June’s pessimistic turn it is encouraging to
see a return to levels of positivity seen at the
start of the year – but it’s all relative: the start of
the year wasn’t all that great…
Nevertheless, Irish marketers and business
people need all the positivity they can get right
now, and our latest Economic Recovery Index
provides at least some brightness despite the
dull summer weather.
16 Economic Recovery Index
Let’s Get Visual
If you find Amárach’s Economic
Recovery Index useful (and we
know many of you do) then you
might be interested in our data
visualisation initiative with
Delphi Analytics.
We have partnered to create
an extraordinarily powerful
resource online – for free – to
enable marketers and others to
look at the historical trend in
the ERI going back to April
2009 by demographic group,
main bank etc.
Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual-
analytics/economic-recovery-index/
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach Research
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agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international
clients. We specialise in turning information
into insight; and insight into foresight.
Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and
cati surveys; as well as qualitative research
including focus groups, in-depths and
ethnographic studies. We also offer a
unique field-only service to universities and
international agencies.
Amárach Research is proud to be:
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or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
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explore how we can help you succeed through world
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