AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator November 2010

© Amárach Research 2009

November 2010 Results

The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator

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Timing Recovery

•  All recessions end in recovery – so will this one

•  The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started?

•  Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely

•  This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to November 2010

•  The fieldwork was conducted on 22nd to 30th November 2010

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A Matter of Measurement •  Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and

150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

•  Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

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A Matter of Measurement •  November saw a further fall in confidence about the prospects for recovery, returning to

levels last seen in April 2009 when the series began.

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•  Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).

•  Any build in positivity has been eroded with the scoring now going back to April 2009.

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Recovery Outlook 1

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Recovery Outlook 2

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Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009 and November 2010

Impact on: • Spending • Saving • Debt • Borrowing

* ‘a new house’ in 2009

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# Question first asked in October 2009

Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey

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The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to November 2010

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The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to November 2010

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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Amárach Research

11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200 E. [email protected]

W. www.amarach.com B. www.amarach.com/blog