A Five Step sales forecasting tool for food businesses

Post on 14-Jun-2015

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Do you know how to create a sales forecast? The usual answer for most food entrepreneurs is… no! In retail foods you need a forecast and the best type forecast is called a Buildup Sales Forecast… it is based on certain assumptions that you make on what is called “sales per point of distribution”. It is not mathematically difficult and just requires understanding how the grocery retailer buyer thinks. It also is based on the category your product resides, your competition and then ultimately the consumer… the person who buys the product at the supermarket. So here is Sales Forecasting in 5 Easy Steps

Transcript

Getting Your Idea Out of the KitchenOn to the Retailer’s ShelvesAnd onto the Customer’s Plate

We help you create your Recipe for Success

info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630

How to Create a Sales Forecast for your Food Business

Forecasting Techniques

Sales Forecasting in 5 Easy Steps

• Step 1 - The Sales Forecast Starts with the Selection of Your Target Grocery Store

• Step 2 - How many stores are in the supermarket or grocery store you want to forecast?

• Step 3 - How many products (the number of SKU’s) do you sell into that grocery store?

• Step 4 - For each SKU, how many units per week do you think you will sell?

• Step 5 - The Formula for Forecasting Sales

Build Up Assumptions• Product – Gluten Free Cupcakes• Number of Products – 4• Price to Retailer - $2.00

ShopRiteNumber of Stores 263Number of SKU's 4Estimated Velocity 2 Per weekUnits per Store Per Week 2104Price Per Unit Wholesale 2.00$ Weekly Forecast 4,208$

Annual Sales Forecast 218,816$

Build Up Assumptions

Whole FoodsNumber of Stores 375Number of SKU's 4Estimated Velocity 2 Per weekUnits per Store Per Week 3000Price Per Unit Wholesale 2.00$ Weekly Forecast 6,000$

Annual Sales Forecast 312,000$

$218,816 $312,000

Build Up Assumptions

• xxx

Trader JoesNumber of Stores 367Number of SKU's 4Estimated Velocity 2 Per weekUnits per Store Per Week 2936Price Per Unit Wholesale 2.00$ Weekly Forecast 5,872$

Annual Sales Forecast 305,344$

$218,816

$266,240

$305,344

Build Up Assumptions

Year 1 Revenue $790,400

Now… that has credibility and no SWAG!

Build Up AssumptionsYear 2 through n

Walmart SupercenterNumber of Stores 3029Number of SKU's 4Estimated Velocity 4 Per weekUnits per Store Per Week 48464Price Per Unit Wholesale 2.00$ Weekly Forecast 96,928$

Annual Sales Forecast 5,040,256$

$218,816 $266,240 $305,344

Getting Your Idea Out of the KitchenOn to the Retailer’s ShelvesAnd onto the Customer’s Plate

info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630

Need help creating your recipe for success?Give us a call.

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