1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 (BY VARIANTS) GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic.
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1990 1998 2010 20302
GDP
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FORTHE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030
(BY VARIANTS) (BY VARIANTS)
GDP
1980
©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RASMoscowMoscow
20020077
Logic of interaction of economic variables in complex of models IEF RAS
INCOM OUTPUT
RESOURCE RESTRICTIONS AND INVESTMENTS
PRICES
PARAMETERS OF ECONOMIC POLICY
© © Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS2
©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS3
Federal level
Level of Federal districts
Level of Regions
MacroscenarioExogenous variables
MacromodelQUMMIR
Inter-industry ModelRIM/CONTO
Infrastructure Model Model of Energy balance
Scenario for Federal districts
Infrastructure Models for Federal districts
Macromodels for Federal districts
Macromodels of Energy balances for Federal
districts
Inter-industry Models for Federal districts
Inter-industry Models of Energy balances for
Federal districts
Scenario for Regions
Inter-industry Models for Regions
Macromodels of Energy balances for Regions
Comparative dynamics of economy of Russia and World economy - to a level of 1990 Comparative dynamics of economy of Russia and World economy - to a level of 1990
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
RUSSIA
World GDP
©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS4
Decomposition under factors increase of GDP per 2000-2006
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Increase of GDP (in %) 10.0 5.0 4.3 7.3 7.2 6.4 6.7
Contributions of factors (Percentage points)
Household consumption 3.6 4.7 4.5 4.9 5.7 6.3 7.5
Government consumption 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9
Capital investment 3.1 1.9 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7
Stock addition 5.8 0.9 -1.1 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.9
Export 2.1 1.0 3.8 4.9 3.9 2.2 2.3
Import -5.0 -3.3 -4.0 -5.4 -6.4 -5.9 -7.7
Inventory
Rates of internal demand and GDP, % (by corresponding a quarter of the last year )
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.02
00
3.1
20
03
.2
20
03
.3
20
03
.4
20
04
.1
20
04
.2
20
04
.3
20
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.4
20
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.1
20
05
.2
20
05
.3
20
05
.4
20
06
.1
20
06
.2
20
06
.3
20
06
.4
Internal demand
GDP
©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS6
Динамика ВВП в зависимости от нормы накопления и роста капиталоемкости
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Темп ВВП, % Уровень капиталоемкости ВВП Доля накопления, % - правая шкала
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Investments share in GDP 25%
Dynamics of GDP depending on a capital intensity and share of investments in GDP
The forecast of dynamics of GDP depending on norm of capital formation and growth of a capital intensity (a share of formation of 30-35 %)
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203010.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0GDP, %
Level of a capital intensity of GDP
Investments Share in GDP, % - right scale
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©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS99
Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDP
2007-2015 2015-2030
1 Delay of raw export -0.20% -0.30%2 Change of dynamics of the world prices for a source
of raw materials -0.50% -0.60%3 Delay of dynamics of consumer crediting -0.20% -0.60%
4 Acceleration of housing, road and infrastructural construction 0.50% 0.30%
5 Advancing growth of a salary in industrial sector of economy 0.40% 0.80%
6 Decrease in a share of import a increase of final and intermediate consumption 0.50% 0.30%
7 Increase in not raw export 0.70% 1.10%8 Increase in the Government consumption 0.40% 0.50%
Potential balance - percentage pointss of a increase of GDP 1.60% 1.50%
Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDPfrom a final demand
(on the end of the period on average values of contributions of factors)
From the capital 2007-2015 2015-2030
1 Increase of a capital intensity of manufacture -1,40% -2,30%
2 Increase of norm of investment 2,80% 2,60%
Potential balance - percentage pointss of a increase of GDP 1,40% 1,30%
Comparison of an investment and inertial variant of Comparison of an investment and inertial variant of development to hypothetical dynamics of the Russian economy in conditions of preservation development to hypothetical dynamics of the Russian economy in conditions of preservation
of the rates which have developed in the USSR in 80th (1990 - 100) of the rates which have developed in the USSR in 80th (1990 - 100)
0
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100
150
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1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
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2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Russia - Inertia of USSR
Investment scenario
inertialinertial scenario
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©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS
Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year
(an investment variant) (an investment variant)
1111
2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Household consumption 8.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.3
Government consumption 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0
Capital investment 12.5 11.0 9.8 8.8 7.9
Stock addition 13.8 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.2
Export 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3
Import 9.5 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.0
GDP 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.8
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Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year
Investment Investment scenarioscenario
2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Industry 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.1
Building 10.8 10.0 9.0 7.9 7.0
Agriculture 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8
Services (incl. trade) 7.7 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.5
Construction
©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS
Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year
(an Inertial variant ) (an Inertial variant )
1133
2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Household consumption 8,1 6,9 6,3 5,7 5,2
Government consumption 2,8 2,2 1,9 1,7 1,4
Capital investment 9,0 7,2 6,5 5,8 5,1
Stock addition 12,3 2,7 2,4 1,6 0,2
Export 5,3 5,2 4,9 4,7 4,6
Import 9,5 5,7 5,0 4,7 5,5
GDP 6,2 6,0 5,7 5,2 4,4
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