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1990 1998 2010 20302
GDP
The forecast of development of the Russian The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industryoil-extracting industry
Main problems• Decrease of the available oil deposits. For the period of 1995-2007 excess of an oil extraction over stock gains from surveying has made about 1,3 billion tonns•Low oil refining depth (about 70%)• High degree of the fixed capital depreciation• Expected growth of capital intensity and operation costs• High share of taxes in revenues• Deficit of available funds for Investment
Share of the oil extraction in gross value added
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Role of the oil sector in gross domestic product production
7% 8% 7%
3%
4%4%
3%
6%6%
6%
5% 7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2004 2005 2006
Trade profits frompetroleum sales
Export tariff
Mineral extraction tax
Gross Value Added
Dynamics of free flow and operation costs
Revenues Free flow Operation Costs
Mineral Extraction TaxExport Tariffs
Operation costs
The petroleum sector extraction sub-model’s scheme
Link between russian interindustrymodel and petroleum sector sub-model
Petroleum sector submodel
Russian Interindusty Model (Currently CONTO)
Price Indexes
Demand of petroleum products
Outputs and exports of oil extraction and oil refinery
Tax revenues (mineral extraction tax, export tariffs, profit and value added taxes)
Amount of investment in petroleum sector
Estimations of Capital intensity and Operation Costs I
In the basic regions of oil extraction (Near-Caspian, republic Komi, an other European part of the Russian Federation, Western Siberia and Ural Mountains, Eastern Siberia, the Far East) all deposits have been allocated on three categories : readily available and developed, mid-available and difficult and/or undiscоvered
As a result 18 categories of deposits (3 categories in each of 6 regions), each with the volume of reserves, development cost and operational were received
Estimations of Capital intensity and Operation Costs II
Further, we assumed that the most accessible deposits will be developed first of all. Thus we have received dynamics of growth of the capital intensity caused by exhaustion of cheap deposits and gradual transition on more and more expensive deposits.
So, capital intensity of development of deposits was settled up on the basis of volume of the extracted petroleum as an accruing result from the beginning of the forecast period
Approximation of Capital Intensity Growth
y = -0,003x3 + 0,1165x2 + 0,7062x + 26,459
R2 = 0,9923
0,00
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0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00
Capital Intensity($/tn) Poly. (Capital Intensity($/tn))