1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 (BY VARIANTS) GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic.

1990 1998 2010 20302

GDP

THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FORTHE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030

(BY VARIANTS) (BY VARIANTS)

GDP

1980

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RASMoscowMoscow

20020077

Logic of interaction of economic variables in complex of models IEF RAS

INCOM OUTPUT

RESOURCE RESTRICTIONS AND INVESTMENTS

PRICES

PARAMETERS OF ECONOMIC POLICY

© © Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS2

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS3

Federal level

Level of Federal districts

Level of Regions

MacroscenarioExogenous variables

MacromodelQUMMIR

Inter-industry ModelRIM/CONTO

Infrastructure Model Model of Energy balance

Scenario for Federal districts

Infrastructure Models for Federal districts

Macromodels for Federal districts

Macromodels of Energy balances for Federal

districts

Inter-industry Models for Federal districts

Inter-industry Models of Energy balances for

Federal districts

Scenario for Regions

Inter-industry Models for Regions

Macromodels of Energy balances for Regions

Comparative dynamics of economy of Russia and World economy - to a level of 1990 Comparative dynamics of economy of Russia and World economy - to a level of 1990

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

RUSSIA

World GDP

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS4

Decomposition under factors increase of GDP per 2000-2006

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Increase of GDP (in %) 10.0 5.0 4.3 7.3 7.2 6.4 6.7

Contributions of factors (Percentage points)

Household consumption 3.6 4.7 4.5 4.9 5.7 6.3 7.5

Government consumption 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9

Capital investment 3.1 1.9 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7

Stock addition 5.8 0.9 -1.1 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.9

Export 2.1 1.0 3.8 4.9 3.9 2.2 2.3

Import -5.0 -3.3 -4.0 -5.4 -6.4 -5.9 -7.7

Inventory

Rates of internal demand and GDP, % (by corresponding a quarter of the last year )

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.02

00

3.1

20

03

.2

20

03

.3

20

03

.4

20

04

.1

20

04

.2

20

04

.3

20

04

.4

20

05

.1

20

05

.2

20

05

.3

20

05

.4

20

06

.1

20

06

.2

20

06

.3

20

06

.4

Internal demand

GDP

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS6

Динамика ВВП в зависимости от нормы накопления и роста капиталоемкости

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Темп ВВП, % Уровень капиталоемкости ВВП Доля накопления, % - правая шкала

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS7

Investments share in GDP 25%

Dynamics of GDP depending on a capital intensity and share of investments in GDP

The forecast of dynamics of GDP depending on norm of capital formation and growth of a capital intensity (a share of formation of 30-35 %)

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203010.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0GDP, %

Level of a capital intensity of GDP

Investments Share in GDP, % - right scale

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS88

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS99

Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDP

2007-2015 2015-2030

1 Delay of raw export -0.20% -0.30%2 Change of dynamics of the world prices for a source

of raw materials -0.50% -0.60%3 Delay of dynamics of consumer crediting -0.20% -0.60%

4 Acceleration of housing, road and infrastructural construction 0.50% 0.30%

5 Advancing growth of a salary in industrial sector of economy 0.40% 0.80%

6 Decrease in a share of import a increase of final and intermediate consumption 0.50% 0.30%

7 Increase in not raw export 0.70% 1.10%8 Increase in the Government consumption 0.40% 0.50%

Potential balance - percentage pointss of a increase of GDP 1.60% 1.50%

Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDPfrom a final demand

(on the end of the period on average values of contributions of factors)

From the capital 2007-2015 2015-2030

1 Increase of a capital intensity of manufacture -1,40% -2,30%

2 Increase of norm of investment 2,80% 2,60%

Potential balance - percentage pointss of a increase of GDP 1,40% 1,30%

Comparison of an investment and inertial variant of Comparison of an investment and inertial variant of development to hypothetical dynamics of the Russian economy in conditions of preservation development to hypothetical dynamics of the Russian economy in conditions of preservation

of the rates which have developed in the USSR in 80th (1990 - 100) of the rates which have developed in the USSR in 80th (1990 - 100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Russia - Inertia of USSR

Investment scenario

inertialinertial scenario

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS1010

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS

Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year

(an investment variant) (an investment variant)

1111

2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Household consumption 8.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.3

Government consumption 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0

Capital investment 12.5 11.0 9.8 8.8 7.9

Stock addition 13.8 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.2

Export 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3

Import 9.5 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.0

GDP 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.8

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS1122

Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year

Investment Investment scenarioscenario

2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Industry 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.1

Building 10.8 10.0 9.0 7.9 7.0

Agriculture 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8

Services (incl. trade) 7.7 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.5

Construction

©©Institute of Economic Forecasting RASInstitute of Economic Forecasting RAS

Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year

(an Inertial variant ) (an Inertial variant )

1133

2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Household consumption 8,1 6,9 6,3 5,7 5,2

Government consumption 2,8 2,2 1,9 1,7 1,4

Capital investment 9,0 7,2 6,5 5,8 5,1

Stock addition 12,3 2,7 2,4 1,6 0,2

Export 5,3 5,2 4,9 4,7 4,6

Import 9,5 5,7 5,0 4,7 5,5

GDP 6,2 6,0 5,7 5,2 4,4