1. The rational diagnostician 2. 3 Things • Probability • Risk • Me 3. When is a diagnosis useful? 4. How sure are you? • 98-100% • 95-98% • 90-95% • 85-90%…
1. Wrestling with risk 2. 4 Things • You are not a diagnostician • You are a risky doctor • You get lucky (a lot) • Diagnosis can be dangerous 3. You are not a diagnostician…