1. Crop yield responses to past climatic trends in China Wei
Xiong IEDA CAAS Email: [email protected]
InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA)/ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS)
2. Overview Background Methods Results Summary
3. Background Previous studies deal with the impacts of future
climate change (2020s, 2050s,2080s), those results can hardly be
used by current adaptation activities. Yield change for different
periods and Changes in total cereal production under different
scenarios (a: without CO2 effects, b: with combinations of drivers
(Xiong et al. Global Envion. CO2 effects) (Xiong et al, 2009)
Change)
12. Results3:Neteffectsofpastclimatic trends
Over40%ofthefoodcroplandexhibiteddepressedyieldsduetopast
climaticvariables
SubstantialdecreaseinLP,WestofNortheastChina,andareasinYangtzeRiverBasin.
Estimated decreases in food production due to the past climatic
trends (compared to the average in 1981-2007).
13. Results4:Uncertaintiesduetousing differentmethods
Usingthedifferentdetrendingmethodcancausedthedifferencein
estimatedresults,cropmodeltendstounderestimatethespatial
variationsoftheimpacts,andinsomewhereestimatedalessnegative
impactofclimatechange. Comparison of estimated wheat yield change
(%) to 1 C growing season warming via first difference vs.
estimations from (a) the removal of linear time trends in yield,
and (b) the CERES- Wheat simulated potential irrigated yields.
15. Highlights Past climatic risks for food production: growing
season warming, decreased Diurnal Temperature Range, insufficient
radiation, and increased extreme events. Yield responses are differ
depend on crops, locations, and adaptation capacity Maize and
soybean suffer most Rice is benefited, wheat suffers in some areas
Several producing regions are vulnerable The Loess Plateau West of
NE Some Areas in Yangtze River Basin Adaptation investments might
be prioritized in Irrigation and drainage infrastructures. Measures
to deal with higher day temperatures
16. Ongoing works are still stressed on: Benefits of costs of
specific adaptations Integration of adaptation measures,
monitoring, infrastructures, managements, biotechnology,
insurances, etc. Risk management in the context of climate change
Promote the food production by adapting to the warming climate