www.bea.gov
U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry Accounts: Methods and
Research Results
Brian C. Moyer13th OECD-NBS Workshop on National Accounts
Haikou, ChinaNovember 30 – December 4, 2009
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Motivation
Higher frequency industry data for business cycle and policy analysis
New price and quantity measures in a NIPA framework provide an industry breakout of quarterly GDP growth
Available shortly after the 3rd estimate of quarterly GDP from the NIPAs
New information to improve the NIPAs
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Why now?
Framework established through recent integration of BEA’s annual I-O and GDP by industry accounts Combined best available source data using
quality weighting Provided consistent measures of output,
inputs, and value added by industry Accelerated availability of annual I-O accounts
Higher-frequency source data now available Census Bureau’s quarterly surveys Bureau of Labor Statistics’ price indexes
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Overview of methods
Benchmarked to the annual I-O and GDP by industry accounts
Extrapolations of nominal output and value added based on: Receipts, shipments, and sales from the Census
Bureau Income-by-Industry data from the NIPAs Wage and salary data from the BLS
Estimates of final expenditures indirectly measured using “commodity flow” method Based on ratios of domestic supply International trade data from the Census Bureau Inventory data from the NIPAs
Statistics prepared in a balanced I-O framework
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Overview of methods
Real value added based on double deflation, where output and inputs are deflated separately
Deflation of nominal output and inputs using: Producer price indexes PCE implicit price deflators International price indexes Implicit price indexes based on industrial
production indexes
Domestic and imported inputs deflated separately
Aggregation using Fisher formulas, including contributions to GDP price and quantity growth
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Research results
▪ Real value added for “All industries” tracks well with real GDP
▪ Industry composition provides good indication of: Direction of change Acceleration/Deceleration Growth relative to trend
▪ Results are sensitive to business cycle fluctuations
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Real GDP for “All industries”
Chart 2. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real GDP vs. Real Value Added for All Industries
2003:IV-2007:IV
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03:IV 04:II 04:IV 05:II 05:IV 06:II 06:IV 07:II 07:IV
Real VA for All IndustriesPublished NIPAs
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Case study: Wholesale trade
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2005 2006 2007 2008
Per
cen
t
Quarterly Trends for 2007
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-4
0
4
8
12
07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4
Pe
rce
nt
Real Value Added
Real sales for Merchant Wholesale trade
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2005 2006 2007 2008
Per
cen
t
Quarterly Trends for 2007
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4
Pe
rce
nt
Real Value Added
Real sales for Merchant Wholesale trade
Quarterly Trends for 2007
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4
Pe
rce
nt
Real Value Added
Real sales for Merchant Wholesale trade