WUP-FIN2 socio-economicand policy analysis
WUP-FIN2 Introductory Training – Bangkok
MARKO KESKINEN & OLLI VARIS
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. Methodologies for
socio-economic analysis
3. Work in Nam Songkram
(and in Vientiane Area)
4. Interactive discussionINTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
WATER MANAGEMENT
• Water management is much more than managing water
includes also environment & people (+politics!)
multidisciplinary & interdisciplinary approach with participatory aspect is essential
but how to integrate the diverse information?
• Changed demands for water management mean that water modelling has to change, too
better linking with society & greater participation
IWRM
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
WATER & SOCIETY
• Socio-economic analysis within a water modelling project?
to link modelling & water with local people
to widen the approach from modelling to impact assessment
to make maximum use of models
• But just carrying out the analysis is not enough: it has to be tightly integrated with modelling perhaps most demanding task INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
LOCAL PEOPLE & THEIR LIVELIHOOD
WATER
PROBLEMS & NEEDSRELATED TO WATER
HELP & ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MODELLING
”Modelling that is better connected to real world & local level”
Facilitates solving of water-related problems
Helps to link modelling to management & decision making
OBJECTIVE & FOCUS AREAS
• To support the MRC and national institutions in water-related socio-economic & policy analysis close cooperation with above institutions essential!
• Focus areas– Tonle Sap – Mekong Delta – Vientiane Area in Lao PDR– Nam Songkram watershed
Policy Analysis of Lower Mekong Basin
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
• Methodologies used in the s-e analysis:(example from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia)
– Participatory village survey & interviews– Analysis of socio-economic databases (GIS)
– Policy analysis with WUP-FIN Policy Models (based on Bayesian Networks)
METHODOLOGIES
s-e analysis
policy
analysis
94.6%100.0%94.9%99.8%100.0%82.9%Khmer
52.9%66.0%51.2%48.9%44.3%35.7%Literacy
11581215543138288No. of villages
3.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%14.0%Vietnamese
52.0%51.9%52.3%52.2%52.0%50.6%Females
55.9%53.4%56.6%57.0%58.3%56.0%0 - 19 years
1 186 192291 460470 196283 10456 69084 742Population
1 487 6097 255157 355229 207240 694853 098Area (ha)
All zonesZone 5Zone 4Zone 3Zone 2Zone 1BASIC
INDICATORS
94.6%100.0%94.9%99.8%100.0%82.9%Khmer
52.9%66.0%51.2%48.9%44.3%35.7%Literacy
11581215543138288No. of villages
3.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%14.0%Vietnamese
52.0%51.9%52.3%52.2%52.0%50.6%Females
55.9%53.4%56.6%57.0%58.3%56.0%0 - 19 years
1 186 192291 460470 196283 10456 69084 742Population
1 487 6097 255157 355229 207240 694853 098Area (ha)
All zonesZone 5Zone 4Zone 3Zone 2Zone 1BASIC
INDICATORS
853 098
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5
ha
/ p
op
ula
tio
n
Area (ha)
Population
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
1) Database analysis in GIS
2) Village surveys & interviews
Two levels: local & regional
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
LOCAL LEVEL: water-related
links & problems
REGIONAL LEVEL: impact analysis
& decision making
knowledge
integration
Analysis according to topographic
zones in GIS
analysis
support
Two phases: analysis & integration INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
Tonle Sap study area arranged into five zones according to topography (+urbanisation)
Makes analysis and linking with the models easier:
Water does not follow administrative boundaries!
Zone 1: 0 - 6 metres Zone 2: 6 - 8 metres Zone 3: 8 - 10 metres Zone 4: 10 metres to National Roads Zone 5: Urban areas
TOPOGRAPHIC ZONING
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
Databases give access to extensive (albeit often biased) quantitative information
First: review of existing databases Census 1998 Fishing Household Survey 1996 Topographic database (Certeza) Other databases
Then: construction of own GIS-based database that arranges information according to different topographic zones database analysis according to zones
DATABASE ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
Examples fromTonle Sap
BASIC INDICATORS Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 All zones
Area (ha) 853 098 240 694 229 207 157 355 7 255 1 487 609
No. of villages 88 82 313 554 121 1158
Population 84 742 56 690 283 104 470 196 291 460 1 186 192
0 - 19 years 56.0% 58.3% 57.0% 56.6% 53.4% 55.9%
Females 50.6% 52.0% 52.2% 52.3% 51.9% 52.0%
Literacy 35.7% 44.3% 48.9% 51.2% 66.0% 52.9%
Khmer 82.9% 100.0% 99.8% 94.9% 100.0% 94.6%
Vietnamese 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 3.0%
Information derived from Census 1998 and Fishing Household Survey 1995-96INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
Qualitative and up-to-date village-level information but extremely small sample size
Based on participatory methods (RRA/PRA)Complemented and contradicted databases
”To see behind the numbers” Grassroots level information on actual water-
related benefits, problems and needs”Make local people’s voice heard”
Also more quantitative survey/interview methods (questionnaires) applicable
VILLAGE SURVEYS & INTERVIEWS
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
Key informant interview
Group discussion
Participatory mapping
Transect walk and observation
Seasonal calendar and occupational preference
ranking
Time ranking
Focus group discussion and rankings on
migration & urbanisation
Final discussion and analysis of the study
SURVEY METHODS
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
POLICY MODELLING (1/2)
• Analyse impact of water management policies- different sector policies (Tonle Sap)- different governance levels (Vietnam)
Understand the most critical management and governance issues Support for planning & decision making
• Assists in learning of possibility of compromises helps in formulating compromise policies
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
POLICY MODELLING (2/2)
Based on Bayesian causal networks
• Probabilistic: efficient handling of uncertainties
• Allow multidisciplinary modelling and analysis
both quantitative and qualitative information
• Expert / stakeholder consultation essential part
process of developing the model
as important as model results
”LEARNING PROCESS” INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
SCENARIOS & IMPACTS
TENDENCIES LINK MATRIX
WUP-FIN POLICY MODELTONLE SAP LAKE CONSER 19 ECON 50
Mean Accuracy Mean AccuracyFormal institutions (Ministries) > ** > ***Education, public health > ** > **Urban development (Provincial capitals) *** >>> ****Community development (villages) *** *Water and sanitation services ** > *Navigation *** >> ****Roads and other infrastructure > *** >>> *****Agriculture, irrigation *** >> **Large-scale fisheries < *** >>> ***Small, medium scale fisheries *** << **Conservation >>> ***** ****
DEVEL. GOAL DIAGRAMS
POVERTY REDUCTION
I
ENV'TAL SUSTAINAB.
I
ECONOMIC GROWTH
I
Mean AccuracyWater Toxic substances, oil spills >> *Regional Soil degradation > ***
Aquatic weeds, eutrophication, low oxygen
>> **Biodiversity decline > **
Forests Flood forests < *Other forests < **
Agriculture Floating rice < ***Wet season rice > **
Form
al in
stit
uti
ons
(Min
istr
ies)
Educa
tion,
public
healt
h
Urb
an d
evelo
pm
ent
(Pro
vin
cial ca
pit
als
)
Com
munit
y d
evelo
pm
ent
(vill
ages)
Wate
r and s
anit
ati
on s
erv
ices
Navig
ati
on
Roads
and o
ther
infr
ast
ruct
ure
Agri
cult
ure
, ir
rigati
on
Larg
e-s
cale
fish
eri
es
Sm
all,
mediu
m s
cale
fish
eri
es
Conse
rvati
on
Flo
ods
Dro
ughts
Susp
ended s
olid
s, s
edim
enta
tion
Toxic
subst
ance
s, o
il sp
ills
Formal institutions (Ministries) 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,10 0,08 0,10 0,05 0,25 -0,03
Education, public health 0,10 0,20 0,10 0,05 -0,03
Urban development (Provincial capitals) 0,02 0,05 0,15 0,02 0,02 -0,02 0,04 0,15
Community development (villages) 0,10 0,10 0,15 -0,10 0,10
Water and sanitation services -0,02 0,01 0,01
Navigation 0,02 0,02 0,08 0,02 -0,03 0,10
Roads and other infrastructure 0,10 0,10 0,02 -0,02 0,02
Agriculture, irrigation -0,15 -0,10 0,20 0,15
Large-scale fisheries -0,12 -0,05 0,01
Small, medium scale fisheries -0,01
Conservation -0,10 -0,02 -0,20 -0,02
S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM
• Aim to support modelling by– Increasing the understanding of local socio-economic
conditions, particularly of water-related livelihoods (e.g. fishing, farming) and their trends
– Analysing the interconnections with water resources and livelihoods
What are the most critical water-related issues in the area that modelling should address?
– Enhancing the participation of local people in modelling work
Integration with modelling work essential INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
• Key issues and questions
– What has already been done? Existing information (databases, surveys, etc.)
– Is this enough, or is something more needed?• By you as Thai counterparts• By the modelling project
What should be the focus of the analysis?
- What should be the approach of the analysis?- Review of existing literature and information, AND- Database analysis, AND/OR- Village surveys & interviews
S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
• Key issues and questions
– What are the main institutions working in Nam Songkram related to socio-economics?
cooperation with them?
– Who should be the main responsible?• Socio-economic analysis by Thai counterparts• Facilitation and training by WUP-FIN • Integration with modelling together
– Vientiane area: bank erosion issue?
S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
• Ideas / requests from the BDP of MRC
– Modelling: look at the flood pulse concept how far does the flooding impact of the Mekong reach with different floods? how different scenarios impact this?
- Socio-economic analysis: focus on fisheries hydrology & fish fish & people
- Make use of already existing information!
S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM
INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
Comments and questions?
www.eia.fi/[email protected] & [email protected] INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM
DISCUSSION