WHAT NEXT FOR NEPAL? Evidence on What Matters for Building
Resilience After the Gorkha Earthquake
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
RESILIENCE & MEASUREMENTAT MERCY CORPS
The capacity of communities in complex socio-ecological systems
to learn, cope, adapt, and transform in the face of shocks
and stresses.
Resilience:
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
FOUR COMPONENTS OF RESILIENCE
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
THE FOUR FRAMING QUESTIONS of RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
Outcome-Based Measurement Approach
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
CAPACITIES
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
RESOURCES
PRE-SHOCK
STRATEGIES
POST-SHOCK
• Ability of people and systems to achieve improved well-being in the face of shocks and stresses
MEASURING RESILIENCE AFTER THE GORKHA EARTHQUAKE
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Sindhupalchowk
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesResearch Questions
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
What role did the following factors play in supporting households to cope with and recover from the earthquake?:• Disaster preparedness and response• Social relationships and networks• Access to and use of financial services• Access to and use of economic options
Which pre-shock capacities predicted more effective and less effective responses following the earthquake?
What groups were most and least likely to possess or have access to important resilience capacities?
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
Philippines
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
EARTHQUAKE SEVERITY
WELLBEING / WELFARE OUTCOMES
PRE-SHOCK CAPACITIES
POST-SHOCK CAPACITIES/RESPONSES
Analytical Framework
HOUSEHOLD CONTROLS & WARD FIXED EFFECTS
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E : W H AT N E X T F O R N E PA L ?
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Philippines
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICSModel 2: PRE-SHOCK
CAPACITIES
WELFARE OUTCOMESModel 1:
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
PRE-SHOCK CAPACITIES
POST-SHOCK CAPACITIES
Model 3:HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS +
Model 4: PRE-SHOCK CAPACITIES
POST-SHOCK CAPACITIES+
WELFARE OUTCOMES
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS +
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
Household Characteristics
•Caste•Women Decision-Maker•Female HOH
Pre-Shock Capacities
• Disaster Preparedness + Locus of Control
• Social Capital• Access to Finance• Access to Economic
Options
Post-Shock Capacities
• Disaster Response• Drawing on Social
Capital• Drawing on
Financial Resources• Maintaining or
Drawing on Economic Options
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
Earthquake Severity
• Earthquake ward severity index
• Self-reported damage to home
Welfare Measures
• Coping Strategies Index (CSI)• Human Dietary Diversity
Index (HDDI)• Maintaining or Regaining
Livelihoods• Shelter Quality• Asset Investment• Progress out of Poverty (PPI)
Short-Term Coping
Recovery
Development
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesMethods:
Qualitative Rapid Assessment
Quantitative Survey – 10 weeks post
Follow-up surveys:Post- MonsoonPeriodic – every six months
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesSample:
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesDisaster Preparedness and Response
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Key Findings: • Timeliness of aid is a critical determinant of coping and
recovery. • Common disaster preparedness capacities appear insufficient
in contexts of weak governance and institutions.
Recommendation: To be effective, DRR must be supported by functioning institutions, and reach to the household level.
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesSocial Identity and Social Capital
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Key Finding: Who you are – including caste and gender – can limit access to resources and strategies critical for resilience, and undermine welfare after crisis.
Recommendation: Humanitarian and development actors must do more to reduce social barriers to services that support coping and recovery.
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesFinancial Inclusion
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Key Finding: Financial Services in the right form matter, but credit can also do harm.
Recommendation: Humanitarian cash transfers must reach communities faster, while recovery and development interventions must tailor financial products, services and skills to best support resilience.
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesEconomic Options
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Key Findings: • Ability to maintain or regain livelihoods post-shock is a critical
response• Livelihood independence seems to support disaster resilience,
while access to markets and remittances appear insufficient.• Proximity/access to market alone post-earthquake insufficient.
Recommendation: Humanitarian interventions must support households to regain livelihood as part of response interventions, while working actively to restore market functions for resilience.
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesCross-Cutting
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Key Finding: Trade-offs exist between investments in short-term coping and longer-term recovery interventions.
Recommendation: Follow-up research must be done to understand which investments by households upfront yield the most positive results over time.
R E S I L I E N C E M E A S U R E M E N T A N D E V I D E N C E
PhilippinesStrengths and Limitations
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S
Limitations
•Single Cross-Section•Isolated v. combined effects•Assessment v. evaluation
Strengths
• Set-up for follow-up research
• Examined multiple resilience pathways
• Defined and tested effects of responses
• Informed recovery
Thank You
R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S | 2 0 1 5 R E S I L I E N C E A T M E R C Y C O R P S