University Lands Solar Resource Discussion
Thomas F. Edgar, PhDMarch 24, 2016
Austin, TX
Universitylandsquickstats
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• Therearealmost3200sectionsofULlands.• 3,654totalsquaremilesor2,338,171acres.• 1,709blockshaveOilandGasleases.
• Theaverageblockis1.14squaremilesor732acres.
• Theaveragedistancetoasubstationis7miles(manyareless).• Thehigher thekVArating,thebetter.
• Youcanbuildabout1MWofsolarcapacityon8-10acres.• Theaveragesectioncouldsupporta70-90MWarray.• Multiple sectionscouldbeusedforabiggerarray.
Universitylandsarenotco-locatedwithcampuses
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• MostcampusesareinCentral,East,andSouthTexas.
• UniversitylandsareinWestTexas.
• Locationisnotcriticaltobusinessmodel.
• Mostcampusespurchasepowerthrough GeneralLandOffice.
University landscanpotentiallyexploredevelopmentinallthreeinterconnects
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• Assetsdonothavetophysicallybeinaninterconnecttoselltoit.
• Multipleoptionstowardgettingthemaximumreturn.
Thetwomostimportantvariables forgoodsolarsitesare1)solarradiation
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• MostofUniversitylandsareinexcellentsolarresources.
• Thefurther west,thebetter.
• Latelyinstallationsarereportingbetterthanmodeled resultsforcapacityfactor:FirstSolarBarilla:30%
And2)availabletransmissioninfrastructure
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• Closenesstotransmission linesubstationsispreferred.
• Linesbecomemoresparsefurtherwest.• Asingle345kVAcircuit
cancarryabout850MW• Asingle138kVAcircuit
cancarryabout175MW• Asingle69kVAcircuitcan
carryabout75MW
SummaryofourUniversitylandgrades
•WesummarizetheUniversitylandsattractivenessforsolardevelopmentasfollows:
• >25%solarcapacityfactor,<10milestoasubstation, and<2degreeaverageslopeofland, noOil&Gaslease
• >22%solarcapacityfactor,<25milestoasubstation, and<5degreeaverageslopeofland, noOil&Gaslease
• <25milestoasubstation, and<5degreeaverageslopeofland,noOil&Gaslease
• >25milestoasubstation, >5degreeaverageslope,Oil&Gaslease
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AllUniversity landsarelessthan30milesfromasubstation
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Histogram of distance from all University lands to nearest substation
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Miles to nearest substation
Freq
uenc
y
62: 345 kVA sub846: 138 kVA sub454: 115 kVA sub1832: 69 kVA sub
MostUniversity landsareinareaswithgoodsolarresources
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Histogram of average capacity factors of all University lands
22 23 24 25 26
0
100
200
300
400
500
Capacity factor of University lands
Freq
uenc
y
EachregionofUniversitylandhasdifferentattributes
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• ElPasoandHudspethCounty• CulbersonCounty• Loving,Ward,andWinklerCounty• PecosCounty• TerrellCounty• Crockett,Reagan,Schleicher,andUptonCounty• CraneandEctorCounty• Andrews,Gaines,andMartinCounty
ElPasoandHudspethCounty
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• Totalacres:577,109• Totalsections:732
• Verygood:90• Good:593• Fair:0• Poor:49
• Closestto69and115kVAtransformers
• MostlyinWECC• ElPasoElectric
• Oil&Gasactivity:No
CulbersonCounty
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• Totalacres:52,502• Totalsections:72
• Verygood:7• Good:62• Fair:0• Poor:3
• Closestto69and138kVAtransformers
• MostlyinERCOT• ElPasoElectric
(WECC)• TXUEnergy
• Oil&Gas:No
Loving,Ward,andWinklerCounty
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• Totalacres:173,433• Totalsections:245
• Verygood:0• Good:23• Fair:0• Poor:222
• Closestto69and138kVAtransformers
• ERCOT• TXUEnergy• TNPEnterprises
• Oil&Gas:Yes
PecosCounty
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• Totalacres:209,173• Totalsections:295
• Verygood:0• Good:274• Fair:0• Poor:21
• Closestto69and138kVAtransformers
• ERCOT• TNPEnterprises• AEPTexasNorth
• Oil&Gas:No
TerrellCounty
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• Totalacres:68,381• Totalsections:96
• Verygood:0• Good:54• Fair:0• Poor:42
• Closestto69,138,and345kVAtransformers
• ERCOT• AEPNorth• ETT• TNP
• Oil&Gas:No
Crockett,Reagan,Schleicher,andUptonCounty
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• Totalacres:806,395• Totalsections:1,118
• Verygood:0• Good:122• Fair:73• Poor:923
• Closestto69,138,and345kVAtransformers
• ERCOT• LCRA,TXU,Oncor,
CapRock,AEP,ETT
• Oil&Gas:Yes
CraneandEctorCounty
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• Totalacres:77,573• Totalsections:111
• Verygood:0• Good:5• Fair:0• Poor:106
• Closestto69and138kVAtransformers
• ERCOT• TXU,AEPNorth
• Oil&Gas:Yes
Andrews,Gaines,andMartinCounty
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• Totalacres:345,900• Totalsections:486
• Verygood:0• Good:0• Fair:0• Poor:486
• Closestto69and138kVAtransformers
• MostlyERCOT,butpossible toEasternInterconnect(SPP)
• TXU• Oil&Gas:Yes
Theremightbesomeleasedlandw/omuchoil&gasactivitywecouldconsider
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• WardCounty• <1miletomultiple
138kVAsubstations• Evenhighly-
developedsectionscouldhaveroomfordevelopment.
• ImageryfromGoogleMaps
SomeareclosetoCREZ(red)lines
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• ReaganCounty - BigLake,TX
• Notmuchactivityonleasedland
• FewmilestoCREZlines
• CompetitiveRenewableEnergyZones
• Highercapacitylines(345kVA)
Spatialpricingwillalsoneedtobetakenintoaccountforrevenueprojections
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• Powerplantsarecompensatedbasedonthepriceattheirlocationatagiventime.
• PowerPurchaseAgreements(PPAs)cancreatepricefloorsand/orceilings
• Futurecongestionstudiesofpotentialsiteswillbeneeded.
Therearemanyfactorsthatgointoconsideringsitingsolar1. Therearemultiplesitesthatofferplacementsratedverygoodandgood.
2. Thepriceofelectricitypaidbyeachcampusisdecoupledfrompricesforsellingtothegrid.
3. Recentcoststogeneratesolarpowerare3.8-5.5cents/kWh.
4. Revenueisafunctionoflocal grid prices,drivenbycongestion.Locationsfurthereastlikelywillhavelesscongestion.
5. Solarcanproducemultiplerevenuestreams,bulkpower,tradingRenewableEnergyCertificates(RECS),andtheInvestmentTaxCredit.
6. Financingwillrequireasitestudytopredictlocalhubpricesfor5yearsormore.
7. ULmightwanttofirstpursuealandleasewithasolardevelopertolearnhowtheprojectworks.
8. IfULwantstoowncapital,partneringwithataxableentityforatleastthefirst6yearswillbenecessarytotakeadvantageoftheInvestmentTaxCredit(ITC).
9. RiceandSMUhaverecentlyenteredintoagreementsforacquiringsolarpower.
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