Umweltzerstörung, Ressourcengrenzen, Biodiversität und Klimawandel
Jürgen Scheffran
Universität Hamburg
Biologische Grundlagen der Friedensforschung17. Juni 2015
ErnteKonsum
ProduktionRessourceEmission
Technologie
Politik
Mensch-Umwelt Interaktion
Mensch undSoziale Systeme
NatürlicheSysteme
adaptive capacity
Climate system
temperatureprecipitation
extreme weatherice cover
ocean currentssea level
Natural resources
waterland
ecosystemsbiodiversity
marine resourcesnon-renewables
Human security
waterfood
energyhealthincome
livelihood
Societal stability
political eventsmigrationviolenceconflict
cooperationinstitutions
mitigation
risk
sust
aina
bilit
y
stre
ss
impact
response
framing
adaptation
resilience
development
Komplexe Kopplungen
Source: Scheffran et al, Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 18 May 2012
Probleme der Mensch-Umwelt Interaktion
Environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources
Resource scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty
Global warming and climate change
Tragedy of the Commons
Individual vs. collective rationality
Resource conflicts
Implications for society?
Was sind natürliche Ressourcen?
Natural processes, materials and systems that can be used to serve human needs, values and goals.
Anthropogenic interpretation of natural resources?
Inherent value of nature?
Examples of natural resources:
Energy
Water
Food
Organisms
Biodiversity
Minerals
Other raw materials
Environmental tolerance and viability
Viab
ility
/ Pr
oduc
tivity
V
Tolerance T
V
Environmentalchange
Optimum
V = 0
X- X+ EnvironmentalFactor X
Vulnerablearea
Tragödie der Allmende
Tragedy of the commons: depletion of a shared resource by multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally according to their self-interest, leading to collective undesirable outcomes because depleting the common resource is contrary to the group's long-term interests.
Thomas Malthus (1789) An Essay on the Principle of Population:expected population break down due to famine and disease (Malthusian catastrophe).
William Forster Lloyd (1833): hypothetical situation of herders sharing common land to let cows graze. Each cow gives additional benefits until overgrazing damages the common land for all. Individually rational economic decision results in collective destruction of the environmental commons.
Garrett Hardin (1968) "The Tragedy of the Commons", (Science)social dilemma of human population growth, the use of the Earth's natural resources, and the welfare state
Elinor Ostrom (1999): tragedy of the commons not prevalent or difficult to solve, since locals often have found cooperative solutions to the commons problem.
Grenzen des Wachstums
Studie für den Club of Rome
Einsatz von Systemdynamik und Computermodellierung
12 Szenarien zeigen verschiedene Muster und Umweltergebnisse von 1900 bis 2100.
Bevölkerungswachstum und Ressourcennutzung führen zu Grenzen des Wachstums.
Es gibt noch Wachstumspotentiale.
Das komplexe Computermodell
Source: Meadows et al. 1972, The Limits to Growth
Standardsimulation des Weltmodells
Source: Meadows et al. 1972, The Limits to Growth
Stabilisiertes Weltmodell
Source: Meadows et al. 1972, The Limits to Growth
adaptive capacity
Climate system
temperatureprecipitation
extreme weatherice cover
ocean currentssea level
Natural resources
waterland
ecosystemsbiodiversity
marine resourcesnon-renewables
Human security
waterfood
energyhealthincome
livelihood
Societal stability
political eventsmigrationviolenceconflict
cooperationinstitutions
mitigation
risk
sust
aina
bilit
y
stre
ss
impact
response
framing
adaptation
resilience
development
Komplexe Kopplungen
Source: Scheffran et al, Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 18 May 2012
Globales Wachstum der Anthroposphäre
Steffen W, Crutzen PJ and McNeill JR (2007) Ambio 36(8), p. 617.
Globales Wachstum der Anthroposphäre
Steffen W, Crutzen PJ and McNeill JR (2007) Ambio 36(8), p. 617.
Alterations of the earth system as a result of the dramatic increase of human activities
Steffen et al. (2004)
Steffen et al. (2004)
Änderungen des Erdystems durch menschliche Aktivitäten
Years ago
Bevölkerungswachstum
Foto: McIntyre
UNEP
1804: 1 billion12.10.1999: „Day of six billion people“
04.12.2012, 9:08 a.m.: 7.090.808.233 people
Weltbevölkerung
Source: Vital Signs 2012
Source: Vital Signs 2012
GEO-5 (2012)
UN-Szenarien der Weltbevölkerung bis 2150
Struck (2000)
Bohle (2002)
Änderungen im globalen Wassersektor
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal 2002, based on Shiklomanovand UNESCO 1999Source: GEO-4
Ackerland
Source: GEO-4
Living Planet Index, 1970–2007 Red List Indices of species survival 1980–2010
Living Planet Indexmeasures trends in the abundance of species for which data is available around the world.
Ausbeutung mariner Fischbestände
Source: GEO-4
Industrielle Fischerei an Küsten
Alternative ökonomische und ökologische Indikatoren
Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI): measure that provides a better analysis of economic progress by subtracting out pollution and resource degradation, crime, and other economic ills while adding in unmeasured benefits like volunteer work and parenting.
Ecological footprint: measure of human demand on the Earth's ecosystems. It compares human demand with planet Earth's ecological capacity to regenerate. It represents the amount of biologically productive land and sea area needed to regenerate consumed resources and to absorb the waste.
Source: Vital Signs 2009
(SEF 2003)
Human Development Index (HDI): globaler Vergleich
Where the rich people live
Le Monde diplomatique (2006)
Human Development Index (HDI): combines normalized measures of life expectancy, educational attainment, and standard of living (logarithm
of GDP per capita) for countries worldwide.
Globale Extraktion von Rohstoffen1900–2005
GEO-5 (2012)
Erde bei Nacht: Zunehmende Urbanisierung
www.gsfc.nasa.gov
Wachstum der Bevölkerung, BSP, Handel und CO2-Emissionen, 1990–2008
GEO-5 (2012)
The net emission transfers represent the CO2 emissions in each country to produce exported goods and services minus the emissions in other countries to produce imported goods and services, and are sometimes called the “balance of emissions embodied in trade”
Interaktionen zwischen Mensch und Umwelt im
historischen Kontext
Source: Costanza et al. 2007
Das Erd-Atmosphären-System
(Source: http://co2now.org/Know-the-Changing-Climate)
Energiezyklus der Erde
From: Rose (1986) Learning about Energy,Plenum Press, New York.
Trockenzonen der Erde
Note: Drylands are defined by the long-term mean of the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Drylands include hyperarid areas, while the definition of
desertification relates to arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas only (excluding hyperarid), sometimes also referred to as “susceptible drylands.”Source: UNEP 1992
Vegetation: Indikator für anthropogene
Umweltänderung
Degradierungs der Steppe durch Übergrasung in der Mongolei
Ausbeutung von Bergwäldern in Nordpakistan
Quelle: Schickhoff
Regionen extensiver Konversion in kultivierte Gebiete
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Entwaldung tropischer Wälder
Source: Schickhoff
Hot spots der Entwaldung
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
FAO(2011)
Waldfläche nach Region
Source: GEO-4
Vital Signs 2012
Kohlenstoff in lebender Biomasse und Waldfläche
Source: FAO 2006a
Source: GEO-4
Status terrestrischer Ökoregionen
Note: An ecoregion is a large unit of land containing a geographically distinct assemblage of species, natural communities, and environmental conditions. (Source: GEO-4)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Natürliche vs. anthropogene Aussterberaten
Treiber von Biodiversitätsänderungen
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Land use Climate N deposition Biotic Exchange Atmos CO2
Rela
tive
effe
cts
of d
river
s
(Source: Schickhoff, after Sala et al. 2000)
Globale Pflanzendiversität
Barthlott et al. (1999)
34.000 plant species globally threatened
= c. 13 % of the entire flora
Sala et al. (2000)
Relative Änderung der Biodiversität
Ökosystem-Dienstleistungen
Source: GEO-4
Ursachen und Folgen des Klimawandels
CO2 Emissionen
CO2-Konzentration in der Atmosphäre
Globale Mitteltemperatur
Natürliche Ressourcen
Soziale Instabilität und Konflikte
Energie in Produktion und Konsum
Risiken für menschliche Sicherheit
Wechselwirkungen des Klimawandels
CO2 Emissionen
CO2-Konzentration in der Atmosphäre
Globale Mitteltemperatur
Natürliche Ressourcen
Soziale Instabilität und Konflikte
Energie in Produktion und Konsum
Risiken für menschliche Sicherheit
Der fossile Peak
Source: Hubbert 1969
Lücke zwischen Ölförderung und -Entdeckung
Source: Campbell, 2003
Fossile Energieproduktion
Vital Signs 2010
Globale CO2 Emissionen
CO2 emissions by fuel
Source: Gregor MacDonald, 2010.
Steigende CO2-Emissionen
Strahlungshaushalt und Treibhauseffekt
Strahlungsantrieb & Klimasensitivität
Wärmebilanz und Strahlungsantrieb Anstieg des Strahlungsantries der Erde durch menschliche Aktivitäten um
etwa 1,6 W/m2
Anstieg der CO2-Konzentration: +1,7 W/m2
Anstieg anderer Treibhausgase: weitere +1,3 W/m2
Abkühlung v.a. durch Luftverschmutzung mit Schwefelpartikeln –1,4 W/m2 .
Kühlende Stoffe kurzlebig, Treibhausgase langlebig.
Klimasensitivität 0,8 °C/W/m2 : Erwärmung um 3 °C bei Verdoppelung der atmosphärischen
CO2-Konzentration.
Der jetzige Strahlungsantrieb führt auf Dauer zu Erwärmung um 1,3 °C.
Thermische Trägheit der Ozeane. Bislang Erwärmung um 0,8 °C beobachtet.
Rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past few centuries
Ice-age cycle of the past
400,000 years
Global Cooling over 60 million years
Geschichte der globalen Mitteltemperatur
AGCI 2005
Temperatur in Grönland
Source: Anderson/Strahler, Visualizing Weather and Climate
Eiszeit vor 18,000 Jahren
Source: www.geologieinfo.de
Tarasov and Peltier, Nature, 2005
Eisbedeckung in Nordamerika (Younger-Dryas)
Letzte Eiszeit in Europa
Source: http://www2.klett.de
Changes of averaged air temperatures in the northern hemisphere in the last 10.000 years (GEBHARDT et al. 2007: 250)
T [°C] OH = Holocene Optimum
OJ = Medieval Optimum
PJ = Little Ice Age
OK = Modern Optimum
= Stein des Anstoßes
10.000 Years
1.000 Years
Time b.p. [yr]
Temperatur im Holozän
T [°C] OH = Holozänes Optimum
OJ = Mittelalterliches Optimum
PJ = Kleine Eiszeit
OK = Modernes Optimum
= Stein des Anstoßes
?
Anomalies of air temperature in the northern hemisphere in the last 1000 years –deviations from the mean value of the climate period 1961-1990 (IPCC 2007)
Temperatur-Variationen im letzten Jahrtausend
Anomalies and trends of global air temperature (1856–2004) – deviations from the reference period 1961-1990 (JONES et al. 2005)
Tem
pera
ture
-Ano
mal
ies
[°C
]
Trend-Analyses:1856-2000: +0,6°C (0,004°C/yr)1901-2000: +0,7°C (0,007°C/yr)1981-2000: +0,3°C (0,017°C/yr)
Temperatur-Trends
Anomalies and trends of global air temperature (1856–2004) – deviations from the reference period 1961-1990 (JONES et al. 2005)
Tem
pera
ture
-Ano
mal
ies
[°C
]
Trend-Analyses:1856-2000: +0,6°C (0,004°C/yr)1901-2000: +0,7°C (0,007°C/yr)1981-2000: +0,3°C (0,017°C/yr)
Observed linear trends of ground level air temperature in the period 1891 to 1990 –global map in 5° Lat./Long. resolution (JONES et al. 2005)
Regionale Temperatur-Trends des letzten Jahrhunderts
Precipitation trends in the period from 1900 to 1999 – right hand scale shows latitudinal averages of land surface areas (IPCC 2001)
Regionale Niederschlags-Trends des letzten Jahrhunderts
Absorptivity of selected gases of the atmosphere (www.ees.rochester.edu/fehnlab)
solar window
atmosph. window
Der natürliche Treibhauseffekt
Absorptivity of selected gases of the atmosphere (www.ees.rochester.edu/fehnlab)
solar window
atmosph. window
On the Influence of Carbon Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground
Svante ArrheniusPhilosophical Magazine and Journal of Science
Series 5 – Volume 41 (4/1896): 237-276 Arrhenius’s paper is the first to quantify the contribution of carbon dioxide to the green-house effect and to speculate about whether variations in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide have contributed to long-term variations in climate. Arrhenius refers
to carbon dioxide as “carbonic acid” in accordance with the convention at the time
he was writing.Arrhenius does not explicitly suggest in this
paper that the burning of fossil fuels will cause global warming, though it is clear that he is aware that fossil fuels are a potentially signifi-cant source of carbon dioxide, and he does explicitly suggest this outcome in
later work.
Der natürliche Treibhauseffekt
Pre-industrial period: Extensive utilization of firewood for energy supply (Energy from Space)
Industrial period: Intensive utilization of fossil fuels for
energy supply (Energy for Space)
Der menschliche Einfluss auf das Klima
The atmospheric CO2 concentration of the last 1000 years (GEBHARDT et al. 2007)
CO2 Concentration according toice core analyses (Antarctic)CO2 Concentration observed
at Mauna Loa (Hawaii)
Der menschliche Einfluss auf das Klima
adaptive capacity
Climate system
temperatureprecipitation
extreme weatherice cover
ocean currentssea level
Natural resources
waterland
ecosystemsbiodiversity
marine resourcesnon-renewables
Human security
waterfood
energyhealthincome
livelihood
Societal stability
political eventsmigrationviolenceconflict
cooperationinstitutions
mitigation
risk
sust
aina
bilit
y
stre
ss
impact
response
framing
adaptation
resilience
development
Komplexe Kopplungen
Source: Scheffran et al, Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 18 May 2012
Der globale Kohlenstoff-Zyklus
Global Carbon Cycle: All storages in 1015 g carbon and all fluxes in 1015 g carbon per year [1015 = 1 peta-gramm = 1.000.000.000 tonns = 1 bil. tonns] � average value according to the
Global Carbon Project 2010 (GEBHARDT et al. 2011)
consumptionof fossil fuels
volcanism 5. atmosphere
flux
2. oceans
1. sediments
4. soils and peat3. fossil fuels
6. vegetation
1,1
4,1
7,7
Der globale Kohlenstoff-Zyklus