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Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover
Hels, Tove
Publication date:2011
Document VersionOgså kaldet Forlagets PDF
Link back to DTU Orbit
Citation (APA):Hels, T. (2011). Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover [Lyd og/eller billed produktion (digital)].,01/01/2011
Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport – nu og fremover
Tove Hels, [email protected]
Workshop om uheldsmodeller Trafitec 29. november 2011
Emner
• ’Deskriptiv’ modellering
• Modellering af hastighed og uheld
• Disaggregeret modellering, trafikanten i centrum
• Vejtypemodellering, vejtypen i centrum
• Tidsseriemodellering, det aggregerede antal uheld pr. tidsenhed er i centrum
Uheldsmodeller Tove Hels © DTU Transport
’Deskriptiv’ modellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
1 Jan 2003
1 Jan 2004
1 Jan 2005
1 Jan 2006
1 Jan 2007
1 Jan 2008
1 Jan 2009
1 Jan 2010
studyperiod
speed limit raised
demerit point system introduced
beforeperiod initial
period
first afterperiod second after
period
time
130 km/t på motorvejene
’Deskriptiv’ modellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
Model Variable Value Estimate Significance Y: mean speed (km/h)
X:
intercept 111.84 P<0.0001
road type
110-road: 5.72 P<0.0001 130-road: 6.70
Cph-road: ref.
month 0.04 P<0.0001
season
winter: ref. P<0.0001 spring: 1.76
summer: 1.16 autumn: 1.05
period + (road type * period)
110 road before: ref. P<0.0001 (period) P<0.0001 (road type* period)
110 road initial: -5.27 110 road after 1: -4.23 110 road after 2: -4.56
130 road before: ref. 130 road initial: -1.19 130 road after 1: -0.45 130 road after 2: -0.35
Cph road before: ref. Cph road initial: -4.37 Cph road after 1: -3.54 Cph road after 2: -4.52
F-value= 545.56, R-square= 0.97, N=275.
Deskriptiv modellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
Hastighedsudvikling på 110 motorveje 130 motorveje
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
01-0
1-20
02
30-0
6-20
02
27-1
2-20
02
25-0
6-20
03
22-1
2-20
03
19-0
6-20
04
16-1
2-20
04
14-0
6-20
05
11-1
2-20
05
09-0
6-20
06
06-1
2-20
06
04-0
6-20
07
01-1
2-20
07
29-0
5-20
08
25-1
1-20
08
24-0
5-20
09
20-1
1-20
09
Mea
n sp
eed
(km
/h)
Time
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
01-0
1-20
02
30-0
6-20
02
27-1
2-20
02
25-0
6-20
03
22-1
2-20
03
19-0
6-20
04
16-1
2-20
04
14-0
6-20
05
11-1
2-20
05
09-0
6-20
06
06-1
2-20
06
04-0
6-20
07
01-1
2-20
07
29-0
5-20
08
25-1
1-20
08
24-0
5-20
09
20-1
1-20
09
Mea
n sp
eed
(km
/h)
Time
før initial efter1 efter2 før initial efter1 efter2
Hastighed-uheld modellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
Hastighed-uheld modellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
Exponent in the power model Road type Variables Exponent from
Elvik (2009) Exponent without a control group
Exponent with a control group
130 motorways
PIA-1 1.6 -31.2 -71.5 PIA-2 28.0 -79.3 Injuries-1 2.2 -15.7 -61.2 Injuries-2 32.9 -83.3
110 motorways
PIA-1 1.6 10.5 6.2 PIA-2 10.2 2.4 Injuries-1 2.2 18.1 6.7 Injuries-2 -1.5 5.9
x
før
efter
før
efter
hastighedhastighed
uhelduheld
)(=
Potensmodellen
Hastighed-uheld modellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
Antal uheld
Vejrlig
Uheldsrisiko
Hastighed Trafikarbejde
Politikontrol
+
÷
+ +
+
÷
÷
+
÷
Uheldsmodellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
WP1Variables for accidents modelling
WP2Road user attitudes and
behaviour
WP4Assessing the value of accident
consequences
WP3Accidents modelling
WP5Future traffic safety policies
WP0Management
IMPROSA
Uheldsmodellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
IMPROSA
• Disaggregeret modellering, trafikanten i centrum
• Vejtypemodellering, vejtypen i centrum
• Aggregeret modellering (tidsserier), det aggregerede antal uheld pr. tidsenhed er i centrum
Uheldsmodellering unikke data
• Uheldsdata • politiregistrerede uheld • skadestuedata - Odense • Landpatientregistret
• Transportvaneundersøgelsen - eksponeringsdata
• Socioøkonomiske og demografiske data på individniveau (Danmarks Statistik)
Uheldsmodellering
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller
Aggregeret modellering
Disaggregeret modellering
Eksponerings- og risikotendenser som funktion af samfundstendenser: • brændstofpriser, BNP, billetpriser til kollektiv trafik,… • længde og kvalitet af vejnettet • større ændringer i lovgivning og politikontrol
Eksponerings- og risikotendenser som funktion af individuelle variable: • trafikantadfærd (acceptans af risiko, hastighedsvalg, biltypevalg, etc.) • trafikantens alder, erfaring, uddannelse, etc.
Trafikmængde
Vejtype Predikteret antal uheld
Vejtypemodellering
Andet
Tove Hels © DTU Transport Sociale Karakteristika
Tove Hels, [email protected] DTU Transport
Tak for opmærksomheden…