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Toll Traffic and Revenue ForecastsToll Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
David R. DanforthVice PresidentWilbur Smith Associates
Turnpike 101
November 21, 2006
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TodayToday’’s Presentations Presentation
•• What is a toll road financial feasibility study?What is a toll road financial feasibility study?•• Why is it necessary?Why is it necessary?
•• What is the forecasting process?What is the forecasting process?•• What are the next steps?What are the next steps?
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Levels of Toll StudiesLevels of Toll Studies
•• Level 1Level 1 – – Sketch levelSketch level
−−Project screeningProject screening
•• Level 2Level 2 – – Preliminary StudyPreliminary Study
−−Indicative toll traffic, revenue, and feasibilityIndicative toll traffic, revenue, and feasibility
•• Level 3Level 3 – – Investment GradeInvestment Grade
−−““CertifiedCertified”” revenue, used by bond rating agencies andrevenue, used by bond rating agencies andinvestors to evaluate financial return on the projectinvestors to evaluate financial return on the project
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Level “0”
Initial
Screening
Process
Level 1
Screening
Level 2
Screening
Project
Finance
and
Implementation
Level 3
Investment
Grade
Studies
Toll Candidate Screening and Study ProcessToll Candidate Screening and Study ProcessToll Candidate Screening and Study Process
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Level 1Level 1 – – Sketch Level Traffic & Revenue StudySketch Level Traffic & Revenue Study
•• 11 – – 2 months2 months
•• Existing Data SourcesExisting Data Sources – – traffic counts,traffic counts,socioeconomic parameterssocioeconomic parameters
•• Limited Travel Demand Modeling using ExistingLimited Travel Demand Modeling using ExistingModelsModels
•• Used for ScreeningUsed for Screening
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Level 2 Preliminary Traffic & Revenue StudyLevel 2 Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Study
•• 33 – – 6 months6 months
•• Existing Travel Demand ModelsExisting Travel Demand Models – – limited refinementslimited refinements
•• New Traffic CountsNew Traffic Counts•• Speed & Delay StudiesSpeed & Delay Studies
•• Model Calibration in the Corridor Model Calibration in the Corridor
•• Socioeconomic Review with Limited AdjustmentsSocioeconomic Review with Limited Adjustments•• Value of Time from Census StatisticsValue of Time from Census Statistics•• Toll SensitivityToll Sensitivity
•• Total Corridor DemandTotal Corridor Demand•• Diversion to Toll FacilityDiversion to Toll Facility – – Toll RevenueToll Revenue
•• Input to Preliminary Financial AnalysisInput to Preliminary Financial Analysis
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Level 3Level 3 – – Investment Grade Traffic & Revenue StudyInvestment Grade Traffic & Revenue Study
•• 88 – – 12 months12 months•• Study cost around $1 millionStudy cost around $1 million
•• Existing Travel Demand Models with AdjustmentsExisting Travel Demand Models with Adjustments
•• New Counts and Speed/Delay StudiesNew Counts and Speed/Delay Studies•• OriginOrigin--Destination SurveysDestination Surveys
•• Stated Preference SurveysStated Preference Surveys•• Independent Economic Review and AdjustmentsIndependent Economic Review and Adjustments
•• Operational Analysis and Toll TechnologyOperational Analysis and Toll Technology
•• New Travel Demand Forecasts Including TransitNew Travel Demand Forecasts Including Transit•• Toll SensitivityToll Sensitivity
•• External Sensitivity TestsExternal Sensitivity Tests
•• ““CertifiedCertified”” Revenue Forecasts to Bond Rating AgenciesRevenue Forecasts to Bond Rating Agenciesand Investorsand Investors
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Toll Facility Traffic & Revenue ModelingToll Facility Traffic & Revenue Modeling
•• How much travel demand is in the corridor?How much travel demand is in the corridor?−−
Passenger vehiclesPassenger vehicles Cars, HOV, TransitCars, HOV, Transit
−− Commercial vehiclesCommercial vehicles
Light, medium, heavyLight, medium, heavy•• How much are people willing to pay to use the tollHow much are people willing to pay to use the toll
facility?facility?
•• How much will total demand grow?How much will total demand grow?
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Toll Modeling OverviewToll Modeling OverviewToll Modeling Overview
DATA COLLECTION
• Traffic Counts•
•
Corridor Growth
SIMULATION MODELING
Assess Future Delays
MarketShare
Micromodel
GLOBAL DEMANDTRIP TABLES
• SOV
• HOV 2
• HOV 3+
• A.M. Peak• A.M. Shoulder
• Midday• P.M. Peak
• P.M. Shoulders• Night
TYPICAL OUTPUT
• Toll Sensitivity
• Traffic• Revenue• VMT General Purpose Lanes
• VMT Managed Lanes• Average Speed General
Purpose Lanes• Average Speed Managed
Lanes
DATA COLLECTION
• Traffic Counts• Travel Time Surveys
• Vehicle OccupancyCounts
REGIONAL TRAVEL
DEMAND TRIP
TABLES
INDEPENDENT
ECONOMIC
INPUTS
STATED PREFERENCE
SURVEYS:
TollsTollsOther FactorsOther Factors
Corridor Growth
SIMULATION MODELING
Assess Future Delays
MarketShare
Micromodel
GLOBAL DEMANDTRIP TABLES
• SOV
• HOV 2
• HOV 3+
• A.M. Peak• A.M. Shoulder
• Midday• P.M. Peak• P.M. Shoulders• Night
GLOBAL DEMANDTRIP TABLES
• SOV
• HOV 2
• HOV 3+
• A.M. Peak• A.M. Shoulder
• Midday• P.M. Peak• P.M. Shoulders• Night
TYPICAL OUTPUT
• Toll Sensitivity
• Traffic• Revenue• VMT General Purpose Lanes
• VMT Managed Lanes• Average Speed General
Purpose Lanes
• Average Speed ManagedLanes
How Much Will Demand Grow?How Much Will Demand Grow?
How Much Demand Exists?How Much Demand Exists? How Much Are People Willing To Pay?How Much Are People Willing To Pay?
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Example Toll SensitivityExample Toll Sensitivity
Per Mile Toll Rate in Cents Per Mile Per Mile Toll Rate in Cents Per Mile
HOV 2+ Free
AM Peak Southbound
R e v e
n u e
( T h o u s
a n d s )
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 6055
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
T o l l e d
T r a n s a c t i o n
s
( T h o u s a n d s
)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 6055
54
3
2
1
0
A v e r a g e T r a v e l S p e e
d s
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 6055
80
7060
50
40
30
20
10
0General Purpose Lanes
Managed Lanes
60
60
60
HOV 3+ Free
AM Peak Southbound
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
80
7060
50
40
30
20
10
0General Purpose Lanes
Managed Lanes
R e v e
n u e
( T h o u s
a n d s )
T o l l e d
T r a n s a c t i o n
s
( T h o u s a n d s )
A v e r a g e T r a v e l S p e e
d s
6
7
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
54
3
2
1
0
6
7
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$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Year
G r o s s T o l l R e
v e n u e ( M i l l i o n s )
Scenario 1
Scenario 1AScenario 1B
LEGEND
Example Toll Revenue ForecastExample Toll Revenue Forecast
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Triangle TurnpikeTriangle Turnpike
•• First Project to Move to Investment Grade StudyFirst Project to Move to Investment Grade Study
•• Important New Access to RTP and Other EmploymentImportant New Access to RTP and Other EmploymentSitesSites
••
Preliminary Studies Show Strong Revenue PotentialPreliminary Studies Show Strong Revenue Potential
−− But additional funding beyond tolls will be neededBut additional funding beyond tolls will be needed
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For More Information:For More Information:
David R. DanforthDavid R. DanforthVice PresidentVice PresidentWilbur Smith AssociatesWilbur Smith Associates900 Chapel Street, Suite 1400900 Chapel Street, Suite 1400
New Haven, CT 06510New Haven, CT 06510--28022802
Phone:Phone: (203) 865(203) 865--21912191
Fax:Fax: (203) 624(203) 624--0048400484EE--mail:mail: [email protected]@wilbursmith.comWeb:Web: www.wilbursmith.comwww.wilbursmith.com