Texas and Commercial Space Presentation to 31st Texas Aviation
Conference 14 May 2013
Chip Hill, Director Space Engineering Research Center
Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station 979.845.8768
Virgin Galactic Spaceship Two
Courtesy Virgin Galactic
Presentation Objective
Describe the Commercial Space industry and discuss areas of interest for Texas Aviation
– Introductions – Definitions – Aviation and other thoughts
Space Engineering Research Center
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• Originally chartered as a NASA Commercial Space Center (mid 80’s) to support technology (space) testing and commercialization
• Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) Center pursuing interdisciplinary aerospace activities
• Expertise/programs in thermal control, visible cameras (star trackers), energy storage, solar power, two phase flow, image processing, zero gravity testing, power beaming
• Industry, government and university associations to compete for government/industry contracts and grants
Testing on NASA Zero Gravity aircraft
Student space group
Some Definitions… • Let’s consider altitude regimes –
“Near Space”, Orbital, and beyond Orbital
• Near Space is area between “airspace” and Outer Space, ~20 km (12 miles) to 100 km (62 miles)
• Traditional Low Earth Orbit altitude starts at 160 km (99 miles)
• Near Space traversed by high altitude balloons and suborbital vehicles
• Outer Space (including beyond Orbital) typically the province of Government and Civil (satellite) programs (Satellites $170B/year)
View of Space from 30 km
What is Commercial Space?
• Means many things to many people, but recommend:
1. Derives most/all its funding from Non-governmental sources
2. Pursues a business model based on delivering cargo or humans to space (orbital or suborbital)
3. For the purposes of this talk, focused on commercial human spaceflight
• Typically Non (space)-traditional players • First really new stimulus to space imagination since Apollo
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Suborbital flight profile for XCOR Lynx space plane
The Business Opportunities… • Suborbital launch of payloads (experiments) and humans (tourists)
— Several providers, operations probably in the next year or two — Virgin Galactic order backlog – 500+ at $200,000 per person — Ballistic trajectories… but also “ricochet” trajectories? (point to point) — Technology doable… risks manageable?
• Orbital transportation of payloads and humans NASA funded Commercial Crew Program already exists “Grow to” business model for several/most launch providers Numerous concepts… Bigelow Aerospace inflatable space hotel Technology more daunting… large risk increase
• Beyond Orbital missions being discussed — Asteroid mining (Planetary Resources), Lunar transportation/habitation
(Golden Spike), Mars mission (Mars One – 78,000 respondents) • Potential new industries, facilities, jobs (one estimate, $3.3B
suborbital launch market by 2020)*
*XCOR research
Who’s Involved… • Billionaires who have started or invested in space enterprise/
tourism ventures* – Paul Allen, Co-founder of Microsoft – Larry Page, Co-founder and CEO Google, Inc. – Eric E. Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Google, Inc. – Ram Shriram, Founding board member of Google, Inc. – Jeff Bezos, Founder of Amazon.com – Sir Richard Branson, Founder of the Virgin Companies – Elon Musk, Co-founder of PayPal – Robert Bigelow, Founder of the Budget Suites hotel chain – Charles Simonyi, Ph.D., Chairman and CTO, International Software – Ross Perot, Jr., Chairman of the Perot Group
Producer/director/explorer James Cameron, advisor to some of these ventures
*From Space Tourism Society
The Business Case…
• Operations have to be sustainable without Government funds
• Sustainable means profitable • Profitable possibly depends on
the “Virtuous Cycle”* • Tipping point for Venture Capital? • Safety/risk unknown, especially orbital transportation (insurance
model?) • Role of Government and Government regulation
– Experimental airworthiness certificate versus commercial launch license – Space Coast Guard?*
*DSER Strategy Group *Commercial Spaceflight Federation
Commercial Space in Texas • First-rate Texas aerospace industry,
military, & university research • Resources/facilities (NASA/JSC, SWRI) • Commercial space company activity
SpaceX – McGregor engine plant, vertical ascent/descent launch pad
XCOR – starting R&D and HQ facility in Midland Armadillo Aerospace – HQ in Heath Blue Origin – launch facility in Van Horn Texas presence – Boeing, Sierra
Nevada, etc. Spaceport proposals
SpaceX Falcon 9
Armadillo Aerospace Stig B
Blue Origin New Shepard
XCOR Lynx/Payload Pod
Commercial Space Status – Industry is forming
—National & State advocacy groups, National conferences —~ 20 companies exploring launch or related services —Variety of business models (SpaceX servicing the
International Space Station - to zero-gravity tourist flights) – Other States got a head start on Texas (California, Florida,
New Mexico, etc.), but… —Industry reps met with Gov. Perry last July —Office of Economic Development & Tourism
and Texas Workforce Commission engaged —Various legislative agendas —Regional economic development activities —Houston-centered activities involving NASA
Gov. Perry examining Lynx space plane
Relationship to Aviation • Commercial space commonalities with aviation industry
—Spaceports/airports, flight safety, workforce training, legal, flight testing
—Operations are similar for much of the flight profile, airspace integration more similar than for Unmanned Aerial Systems
—Transportation profit metric (payload/frequency/safety) – like when aviation went from carrying mail to passengers?
• Similar feeder industries • Leverage existing aviation network/infrastructure to
work commercial space advocacy and growth
Virgin Galactic White Knight Two/Spaceship Two XCOR Lynx Mark 1 Sierra Nevada Dream Chaser
FAA is Involved
• FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation (CST) • Industry “self-regulating” until 2015 • Centers of Excellence for CST (UT Medical Branch) • FAA Aviation R&D Research Grant (Commercial Space
Transportation) – Safety and Orbital Debris – Coordination of reusable launch vehicle operations within the air
traffic control system – Human Factors and Aviation Medicine (space planes) – Aircraft Safety Technology (space planes) – Aviation Weather
SERC & Commercial Space • Marketing useful space skills (e.g. zero gravity testing) • Connecting dots (e.g. Shuttle Mission Simulator
at Texas A&M) • Supporting Commercial Space initiatives (we are
not an economic development group) • NASA/Johnson fluids test cassette planned
for suborbital test (likely launch provider Virgin Galactic)
• Payload carrier development for XCOR Lynx • International Space Station Implementation
Partner • Payload integrator for XCOR Lynx • Technical support for student space science
and engineering flight opportunities*
Shuttle Mission Simulator
Lynx Cub Carrier Student Team
*Space Education and Innovation Center
Anticipating Commercial Space Needs • Difficult to define space growth areas and timing • Need to bring Texas Commercial Space interests together to
discuss relevant issues and create an environment for success and opportunities
• Proposing a one day workshop – presentations/panels, moderated topical breakout sessions, discussion on Way Forward
• Desired Outcome: Identify interest groups that have highest likelihood of continuing to contribute value, develop plans for ongoing activities
• Role for Aviation community
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Texas Commercial Space Workshop • Establish Working Panels in specific areas to continue the
dialog and shape the agenda for future workshops • Suggested Topic Areas/Panels
– Research & New Initiatives – Education & Workforce Development – Economic Development & Infrastructure – Government & Policy
• Conference tentatively Fall (September) 2013, College Station • If you have input: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JMQT5NX • Updates on my website, http://serc.tamu.edu
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Here are some Space Tourists
Courtesy Space Adventures
Summary
• Commercial Space emerging as a recognizable, potentially viable industry
• Significant base of support in Texas • Aviation community awareness could help
identify and facilitate regional, economic, educational, and political activities to grow this in Texas
• Questions?