Unexpected, high-impact events
40 years of surprises
Concepts used
Weak signals
Wild cards
Black swan events
Weak signals
Weak signals are currently existing
small and seemingly insignificant
issues that can tell us about the
changes in the future.
Means of anticipating future wild cards
Wild cards
Wild cards vs Gradual Changes
Wild card event Gradual change
Types of wild cards
Black swan events
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The event is a surprise (to the
observer).
The event has a major impact.
After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected.
Types of black swan events
Positive: the rise of the Internet, the personal computer;
Negative: World War I, the September 11 attacks.
Can wild cards or back swans be anticipated?
Avoiding blindness for changes is achieved by searching signals of change with the curiosity of a child.
Coping with wild cards and black swans
Future wild cards
A few of the wild card scenarios examined 12 years ago no longer appear so wild: ice cap breaks up, virtual reality moves information instead of people, terrorism swamps government defenses.
Possible future wild cards
Spiritual Paradigm Shift Sweeps the World
Science Is Wrong - It’s Rapid Cooling New Energy Discovery Comparable to
the Control of Fire Cloned Humans Threaten Everything Intelligent Alien Life Confirmed
Andreea TanasoaicaAndreea Vacaru
It is not
certain
that
everything
is
uncertain.
Blaise Pascal