Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship Program
Annual Report
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
April 28, 2011
2Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Program Overview
3
Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship (TELS) Program
• Merit-based, lottery-funded scholarship program;
• Implemented in 2004;• Program reached maturity in 2008-09; • Mostly for traditional-aged students; • Unique in that it has a need-based
component; and• Awarded a cumulative $1.6 billion to 532,000
students (unduplicated) over time.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
4
Total State Grant Aid (Merit plus Need) per Undergraduate FTE at Public and Private
Institutions (2008-09)
Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (NASSGAP)
$1
,916
$1
,712
$1
,362
$1
,120
$1
,089
$1
,041
$9
24
$9
23
$8
55
$6
60
$5
88
$5
69
$4
89
$4
69
$3
23
$1
87
$1
13
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500S
ou
th C
aro
lin
a
Geo
rgia
Ten
nes
see
Wes
t Vir
gin
ia
Ken
tuck
y
Nor
th C
aro
lin
a
Flo
rid
a
Lou
isia
na
SR
EB
AV
ER
AG
E
US
AV
ER
AG
E
Vir
gin
ia
Okla
hom
a
Mary
lan
d
Del
aw
are
Ark
ansa
s
Mis
siss
ippi
Ala
bam
a
State Need Based and Merit Grant Aid per Undergraduate FTE Public and Private Institutions (2007-08)
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tennessee Education Lottery ScholarshipEligibility Criteria, 2010-11
5
HOPE (base) GAMSASPIRE (HOPE
with need supplment)
Access AwardWilder-Naifeh
Technical Skills Grant
Amount (4-yr.) $4,000 $5,000 $5,500 $2,750 N/ A
Amount (2-yr.) $2,000 $3,000 $3,500 $1,750 $2,000
Minimum High School GPA
3.00 3.75 3.00 2.75-2.99 N/ A
Minimum ACT Composite
or 21 and 29 or 21 and 18-20 N/ A
Family Adjusted Gross Income
N/ A N/ A $36,000 or less $36,000 or less N/ A
College Retention GPA
Traditional Path - Cumulative 2.75 at 24 & 48 hours, cumulative 3.0 at 72, 96, 120 hours
Cumulative 2.75 at 24 hours
allows qualification for
HOPE
Satisfactory academic progressProvisional Path - Cumulative 2.75-2.99 at 72, 96,
120 hours with 3.0 prior semester
6
Scholarship Renewal Requirement
2.75
3.00
24 48 72 96
Cu
mula
tive C
olle
ge G
PA
Cumulative Credit Hours (Attempted)
Provisional Track(3.0 Term GPA also
required)
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
7Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Program Expenditures and Revenue
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000 4
0,1
95
56,0
58
67,0
53
76,2
92
88,3
94
97,0
22
107,9
00
110,4
00
110,5
00
110,6
00
110,6
00
Recip
ien
ts
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Scholarship Recipients 2004-05 through 2009-10 (Actual) and 2010-11 through 2014-15(Projected)
8
Projected
Source: TSAC. Projection data as reported to the State Funding Board on April 12, 2011.
2003-0
4
2004-0
5
2005-0
6
2006-0
7
2007-0
8
2008-0
9
2009-1
0
2010-1
1
2011-1
2
2012-1
3
2013-1
4
2014-1
5
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2
100
167
221
266
295 293313 320 320 320 320
123
231
281 291 290
285 294 297 298 300 301 302
ExpendituresRevenue
Dollars
in
Million
s
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TELS Expenditures and Revenue Trends:
2004-05 through 2009-10 (Actual) and 2010-11 through 2014-15(Projected)
9
Projected
Source: Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationNote: Assumes no change in current policy
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Net Available Current Revenue of TELS Program: 2003-04 through 2009-10 (Actual) and 2010-11 through 2014-15 (Projected)
2003-0
4
2004-0
5
2005-0
6
2006-0
7
2007-0
8
2008-0
9
2009-1
0
2010-1
1
2011-1
2
2012-1
3
2013-1
4
2014-1
5
-$40
-$20
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
121
131113
70
24
-9
1.16153907
-15.5-21.5-20.4-19.6-18.3
Bala
nce a
t Ju
ne 3
0
(Dollars
in
Million
s)
10
Projected
Source: Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationNote: Assumes no change in current policy.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Lottery for Education Reserve: 2003-04 through 2009-10 (Actual) and
2010-11 through 2014-15 (Projected) 2003-0
4
2004-0
5
2005-0
6
2006-0
7
2007-0
8
2008-0
9
2009-1
0
2010-1
1
2011-1
2
2012-1
3
2013-1
4
2014-1
5
$0$50
$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450$500
122
255
371
444471
372373357336315296277
Tota
l R
eserv
e a
t Ju
ne 3
0
(Dollars
in
Million
s)
11
Projected
Source: Tennessee Department of Finance and AdministrationNote: Assumes no change in current policy.
12Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Purchasing Power of Lottery Scholarship
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Historical Trend in Base HOPE Maximum Award Amount
2004-0
5
2005-0
6
2006-0
7
2007-0
8
2008-0
9
2009-1
0
2010-1
1
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$3,000$3,300
$3,800$4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000
$1,500 $1,650$1,900 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000
4-year 2-year
Maxim
um
Aw
ard
Am
ou
nt
13Source: TSAC
14
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-1150%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
71% 71%
78%77%
72%
67%
63%
68% 69%
77%76%
72%
67%
62%Public 4-yearPublic 2-year
Maxim
um
Aw
ard
Am
ou
nt
as a
% o
f A
vera
ge T
uit
ion
an
d F
ees a
t P
ub
lic I
nsti
-tu
tion
s
Purchasing Power of Lottery Scholarship(HOPE Maximum Award Amount Relative to Tuition and Fees*)
* Unweighted average tuition and fees at public institutions.Source: THEC
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
15Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Recipient Demographics and Academic Background
74%
21%
5%
All First-time Freshmen
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Fall 2010 Freshmen by Race/Ethnicity
Note: Data include public institutions only; First-time freshmen were defined as Tennessee residents age 19 or younger enrolled in Fall 2010 as first-time freshmen. TELS recipients are limited to HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, or Access awardees only.Source: THEC SIS
81%
14%5%
First-time Freshmen on Lottery Scholarship
CaucasianAfrican-AmericanOther
16
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2010 Lottery Scholarship Receipt by Family Income
17
$1
2,0
00
or
less
12
,00
1-2
4,0
00
24
,00
1-3
6,0
00
36
,00
1-4
8,0
00
48
,00
1-6
0,0
00
60
,00
1-7
2,0
00
72
,00
1-8
4,0
00
84
,00
1-9
6,0
00
ab
ove
$9
6,0
00
8%11% 11% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7%
28%
8%10% 10%
9% 9% 9% 8% 8%
31%
TELS Freshmen All TELS Recipients
Source: TSAC Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) Data
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Percent of Eligible First-time Freshmen Attending on a Lottery Scholarship
Notes: Tennessee resident first-time freshmen who were 19 or younger; public institutions only. HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access awards only.Source: THEC SIS
65 percent of Fall 2010 traditional-age Tennessee resident first-time freshmen in public institutions attended on a lottery scholarship.
TN Public Higher Ed Total UT TBR Universities Community Colleges
63%
91%
79%
38%
65%
91%
78%
39%Fall2009Fall2010
18
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Percent of Eligible First-time Freshmen Attending on a Lottery Scholarship by
Institution, Fall 2010
Notes: Tennessee resident first-time freshmen who were 19 or younger; public institutions only. HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access awards only.Source: THEC SIS
UTK
UTC
TTU
MTSU
UTM
ETSU
APSU
UM
Walters
Colu
mbia
Roane
Volu
nte
er
Nort
heast
Cle
vela
nd
Pelli
ssip
pi
Motlow
Jack
son
TSU
Dye
rsburg
Chat-
tanooga
Nash
ville
South
west
96%
91%89%85%
80%79%79%75%
56%51%49%47%45%43%43%42%42%
37%32%31%
21%
12%
19
4-yr public
2-yr public
Academic PreparationQualification Standards Met by Fall 2010 First-Time Freshman
TELS Recipients
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Se-ries1
56%
28%
16% Met ACT Standard Only
Met High School GPA Standard Only
Met ACT & GPA Standards
20
This analysis concerned HOPE and ASPIRE recipients only. Only students for whom both ACT and HS GPA were reported were included in this analysis. Both public and private institutions are included in the analysis.
Source: THEC SIS
21Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Scholarship Renewal
22
Renewal Criteria• First 24 and 48 Credit Hour Benchmarks:
Cumulative 2.75 GPA• 72 and thereafter: Cumulative 3.0 GPA • Provisional Track: Cumulative 2.75 GPA and
Term 3.0 GPA (Applicable to students with 72 or above credit hours only)
Scholarship Terminating Events:• 5 years of scholarship; or• Earn a baccalaureate degree(whichever comes first)
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
23
HOPE GAMS ASPIRE ACCESS TOTAL0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 Fall FTF 2005 Fall FTF 2006 Fall FTF 2007 Fall FTF2008 Fall FTF 2009 Fall FTF
Notes: FTF = first time freshmen; Both public and private institutions are included.Source: THEC SIS
2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Rates by TELS Award Type
2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Ratesby High School Standards Met
Fall 2009 First-Time Freshman TELS Recipients*
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
This analysis concerned HOPE and ASPIRE recipients in public and private institutions. Only students for whom both ACT and HS GPA were reported were included in this analysis.
Source: THEC SIS
Series1
63%
45%
22%Met ACT Standard OnlyMet High School GPA Standard OnlyMet Both ACT & GPA Standards
24
2nd Year Scholarship Renewal Ratesby Income Level
Fall 2009 First-Time Freshman TELS Recipients
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
This analysis concerned HOPE and ASPIRE recipients in public and private institutions as these two programs require the same academic standards. Only students for whom income were reported were included in this analysis. Sources: THEC SIS and TSAC FAFSA Data 25
$1
2,0
00
an
d b
elo
w
12
,00
1-2
4,0
00
24
,00
1-3
6,0
00
36
,00
1-4
8,0
00
48
,00
1-6
0,0
00
60
,00
1-7
2,0
00
72
,00
1-8
4,0
00
84
,00
1-9
6,0
00
Ove
r $
96
,00
0
To
tal0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
44% 46%50% 48% 51%
55% 54% 56%60%
55%
Fall 2006 First-time Freshmen Longitudinal Scholarship Renewal Rates
(All Award Types*)
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
*HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE and Access. Fall 2010 does not reflect students who graduated.
Source: THEC SIS
Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
52%44%
38%
16%
26
27Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Retention and Graduation
College Retention Rates*Fall 2005 Lottery Recipients ** vs. Non Recipients
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
*Public institutions only; **HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access awards
Source: THEC SIS
Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 60%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 84%
75%
69%
49%
27%
60%
46%
37%30%
21%
2005 TELS Freshmen 2005 Non TELS Freshmen
28
6-year Graduation Rate for TELS Recipients by Postsecondary Sector
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Note: The graduation rates concerned HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access recipients, regardless of whether they lost the scholarship before graduation. Vanderbilt University is excluded from Independent Institutions. Source: THEC SIS
TBR Universi-ties
TBR Com-munity Col-
leges
University of Tennessee
Independent Institutions
Total0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
52%
39%
65% 67%
55%
Fall 2004 Cohort
29
6-year Graduation Rate for TELS Recipients by Scholarship Type
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Note: The graduation rates concerned HOPE, GAMS, ASPIRE, and Access recipients, regardless of whether they lost the scholarship before graduation. Data include TICUA institutions. . Vanderbilt University is excluded from Independent Institutions. Source: THEC SIS
HOPE GAMS ASPIRE ACCESS Total0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
58%
86%
42%
28%
55%
Fall 2004 Cohort
30
Graduation Rate with TELS Intact by Postsecondary Sector
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Note: Graduation rate on TELS = # of TELS recipients who received associate’s or bachelor degree with their scholarships intact/TELS first-time freshmen. Vanderbilt University is excluded from Independent Institutions. Source: THEC SIS
TBR Universi-ties
TBR Com-munity Col-
leges
University of Tennessee
Independent Institutions
Total0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
27%
22%
36%39%
30%32%
25%
42%44%
35%
Fall 2004 Cohort Fall 2005 Cohort
31
Graduation Rate with TELS Intact by Scholarship Type
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Note: Graduation rate on TELS = # of TELS recipients who received associate’s or bachelor degree with their scholarships intact/TELS first-time freshmen. Includes both public and private institutions.
Source: THEC SIS
HOPE GAMS ASPIRE ACCESS Total0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
31%
71%
21%
8%
30%
36%
74%
27%
5%
35%
Fall 2004 Cohort Fall 2005 Cohort
32
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
33
Summary of Findings
• Holding current policy constant, annual TELS program expenditures will continuously exceed annual revenues;
• The lottery reserve fund will continue to decline by $16 to $20 million every year;
• The most recent scholarship renewal rate in the second year was 54 percent, almost the same level as the previous year’s renewal rate;
• The 6-year graduation rate for TELS recipients was 54 percent; and
• 35 percent of TELS freshmen graduated with their scholarships intact.