Socio-economic implications of climate change for tea producing countries
OutlineIntroductionImplication of climate change for teaSocio-economic implications
◦The estate sector◦The smallholder sector
Impact of climate change on the world tea market
Adaptation measures for tea cultivationConclusions
Introduction
Document CCP:TE 14/4 uses information to assess some socio-economic implications for tea producing countries
Mitigation = attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at their source
Adaptation = attempts to reduce vulnerability to climate change
Implication of climate change for teaTea is:• Important cash crop• Plays a significant role in • Rural development• Poverty alleviation• Food security
• Planted in 58 countries3.36 million hectares under tea
cultivation (2012)4.78 million tonnes produced (2012)
Implication of climate change for tea (cont’d)
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Comparative growth rates in area and yield in Sri Lanka (1985-2013)
area yield
perc
ent
Implication of climate change for tea (cont’d)
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Comparative growth rates in area and yield in Kenya (1985-2013)
area yield
perc
ent
Implication of climate change for tea (cont’d)
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Comparative growth rates in area and yield in China (1985-2013)
area yield
perc
ent
Implication of climate change for tea (cont’d)Implications of climate change:
Dry soil top if mulching is not applied • Increased incidence of new pests and diseases • More carbon dioxide being released into the
atmosphere through deforestation• Reduced or uncertain rainfall patterns and
limited ground and river waterMain issues include of tea’s environmental
footprint:• Reduced biodiversity and ecosystem function• High energy consumption• High application of pesticides in some countries.
Implication of climate change for tea (cont’d)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
Nominal and real prices of tea
Nominal Prices
Real Prices
Year
FA
O C
om
posit
e P
rice
(U
S c
ents
)
Socio-economic implications: the estate sectorIssues estates are facing:•Erosion of top soil• Increased use of fertilizers• Increased usage of pesticides•Addressing longer dry seasons and heavier rains
Socio-economic implications: the estate sectorIncreasing costs of mitigating
climate change raise serious socio-economic issues:• Low wages and low-quality housing• Health and safety• Declining workforce• Casual or short-term employment• Gender discrimination• Diminishing workers’ representation
Socio-economic implications: the smallholder sector Change in supply structure from large plantations to
smallholders Smallholders in Sri Lanka responsible for 76% of
total production Smallholders in Kenya responsible for 62% of total
production Issues constraining smallholders:• Low farm gate prices• Poor extension services• Limited market channels• Little or no access to credit • Low level of farmer organization.
Changes in weather patterns:◦ Possible income loss due to decrease in plucking days (G.
Boriah, Tea Board of India).
Impact of climate change on the world tea market
Blending, packing and marketing of tea are the most profitable and controlled by a handful of multinational tea packers and brokers
Real prices for tea on the shop shelves have not increased over time but have in nominal terms.
Average real auction prices between 2000-2008 roughly half of those in the 1980s
Auction prices have increased somewhat since 2008.
Challenges for most producing countries:• Capturing value addition in tea supply chain • Increasing quality• Rising costs to meet food safety standards
Sri Lanka, India and Kenya successful in capturing value addition
Impact of climate change on the world tea market (cont’d)
Table 1. Climate change scenario Impact at the world level
Average percentage change between baseline and simulation
Price 26.3
Consumption -3.3
Production -3.4
Export 2.3
Impact of climate change on the world tea market (cont’d)
Impact of climate change on the world tea prices (USD/kg)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Simulation
Baseline
Adaptation measures for tea cultivationAdaptation measures
recommended by the Working Group on Climate Change:• Planting drought and stress tolerant
tea cultivars• Diversifying production• Intercropping tea with other tree
crops• Organic cultivation• Water conservation
Conclusions Evidence that GHGs are causing global warming and climate
change Climate change will have a significant impact on future tea
production Several uncertainties are not yet fully understood:
◦ Frequency of natural disasters◦ The proliferation of certain pests and diseases◦ Higher infrastructure cost.
Recommendations:◦ Agricultural and socio-economic adaptation strategies are required in
the short term◦ Tea producing areas should be evaluated against climate projections◦ Comparative studies are necessary◦ Possibility of breeding special tea hybrids that cope better with climate
change should be considered A competitive environment for tea production and processing
safeguarded by governments could create long-term socio-economic and environmental sustainability that will help mitigate the impact of climate change
Thank you!