Održivi razvoj, što je to, da li je moguć i kako ga mjerimo?
Neven DuićFakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje
Sveučilište u Zagrebuhttp://powerlab.fsb.hr/nduic
Radionica – Šolta, 14.10.2006
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra voda fosilna goriva, električna
energija
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra voda fosilna goriva električna
energija
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra vatra životinje voda fosilna
goriva električna energija
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra voda fosilna goriva električna
energija
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra voda fosilna goriva električna
energija
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra voda fosilna goriva električna
energija
skupljanje lov ratarstvo/ stočarstvo hidraulička
civilizacija industrija informatika
prije 40000 g. prije
10000 g. prije 6000 g. prije
200 g. prije 50 g.
luk i strijela
izumiranje mega-faune;
irigacija parni stroj računalo
100000 1 mil. 10 mil. 100 mil. 1000 mil. 10000 mil.
vatra voda fosilna goriva, električna
energija
• Čovjek je potekao iz prirode, ali je ona izgubila kontrolu nad njim
• Čovječanstvo nezadrživo buja
• Kada bismo Zemlju predstavili kao višestanični organizam, što bi onda bio čovjek?
• Stanica raka?
0
- 0.6
1950
2000
1000
1050
Izgaranje fosilnih gorivaPromjena načina korištenja zemljišta
Emisija ugljika / *109 t
012345678
280
320340360
- 0.4- 0.2
Promjena temperature / °C
0.20.40.60.81
Koncentracija CO2 / PPMv
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
Godine / A.D.
1100
1150
Brojnost ljudskepopulacije / *109
10
32
54
6
370
Kisele kiše
Geografska distribucija SOX, utjecaj na sunčevo zračenje, W/m2
Od 1979 sjeverna polarna kapa smanjila se za 20%, NASA
1928.
2004.
ARGENTINA, PATAGONIA
Što se čini s malignim tumorom?
• Odstranjivanje? • Da li je moguće odstranjivanje malignog
tumora bez smrti pacijenta u ovome slučaju?
• A tko bi bio kirurg?• Da li je uopće moguća izlazna strategija?
Npr. smanjenje ekonomskog rasta?• Ili kontrolirani pad ekonomije?
Regres ili progres?
• Pad ekonomske djelatnosti – ekonomska kriza, manje dobara na isti broj ljudi –pauperizacija – radikalizacija – gubitak konsenzusa
• Svakoga dana u svakom pogledu sve više napredujem
Modeli razvoja, Malthus vs. Harris?• Malthusov “model razvoja” - diminishing returns
– demografski pritisak (povećanje broja ljudi) – geometrijska progresija• I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the
existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.
• Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. (Malthus 1798, Chapter 1, online [1])
– apsolutna ograničenost rasta resursa - linerarni porast
Modeli razvoja, Malthus vs. Harris?
• model razvoja Marvina Harrisa – “Cannibals and Kings: The Origins of Cultures” – dvije sile utječu na čovjeka:– demografski pritisak (povećanje broja ljudi)– ograničenost resursa na datom tehnološkom nivou
• Kada se civilizacija nađe na točki kada su resursi istrošeni ili je njihova obnovljivost manja nego što je potrebna stopa korištenja izbor je:– civilizacija će implodirati– civilizacija će uspješno skočiti na viši tehnološki nivo čime će se količina sada dostupnih resursa povećati
Modeli razvoja, Malthus vs. Harris?
• Primjeri implodiranih civilizacija:– civilizacija Maja oko 800. g. – civilizacija Rapa Nui oko 1500. g.
• Civilizacija Rapa Nui– Hotu Matu'a + 50, oko 400 god.– oko 10000 stanovnika na vrhuncu– deforestacija– rat– kanibalizam
Modeli razvoja, Malthus vs. Harris?
• Civilizacija Maja– počeci u 1. stoljeću pr.n.e. u području današnjeg Belizea– širenje dolinama rijeka prema unutrašnjosti – naseljavanje područja Peten i Yucatana– gradovi države, oko 750. g. oko 2 miliona ljudi živi u Petenu– slash and burn agriculture– zbog demografskog pritiska smanjuje se trajanje slash and burn
ciklusa sa 20 na desetak godina, što uzrokuje desertifikaciju i nagli gubitak hrane
– rat svih protiv svih, ekonomska aktivnost staje, nestaje hrane, potpuna implozija oko 800.g.
– danas u području Petena živi oko 20000 ljudi, i mnogo gradova duhova (Tikal)
Rast stanovništva?
Efekt staklenika
Bez efekta staklenika, temperatura na Zemlji bila bi 30oC niža
• Ako ne učinimo ništa
• Koncentracija CO2 se stabilizira na 750 ppm
• Koncentracija CO2 se stabilizira na 550 ppm
Promjena temperature do 2080.
Stabilizacija CO2Ako odlučimo
stabilizirati koncentraciju CO2 na 450 ppm!
• Razvijene zemlje trebale bi smanjiti emisije na 10% današnjih do 2060.
• Zemlje u razvoju trebale bi početi smanji vati emisije iza 2050.
Definicije održivog razvoja?a.) for the World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland
Commission) • " development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs "b.) for the Agenda 21, Chapter 35 • " the development requires taking long-term perspectives, integrating
local and regional effects of global change into the developmentprocess, and using the best scientific and traditional knowledgeavailable"
c.) for the Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences:
• " It means the balancing of economic, social environmental and technological considerations, as well as the incorporation of a set of ethic values"
d.) for the Earth Chapter• " The protection of the environment is essential for human well-being
and the enjoyment of fundamental rights, and as such requires the exercise of corresponding fundamental duties"
e.) Thomas Jefferson, Sept.6 1789• " Then I say the earth belongs to each generation during its course, fully
and in its right no generation can contract debts greater than may be paid during the course of its existence"
Metode usporedbe održivosti
• metoda eksternog troška• multikriterijalna analiza• eksergija i eksergoekonomija• emergija
Damage Cost Estimates for Energy Fuel Cycles(UK Specific Results)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Wind Biomass
Global warmingNoiseMaterialsCropsOccup. HealthPublic healthEU
cent
Source DG XII
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
HY
GE
BM
Average Cost in 98 : PV : 30 HY : 8.25 GE : 7.00 WE : 5.33 BM : 5.30 Coal: 3.7 Gas:4.0
WE
ECU
cent
/kW
h
Gas
Coal
RES vs Conventional Power Plants Production Cost
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
HY
GE
BM Average Cost in 98 PV : 30.0 HY : 8.25 GE : 7.00 WE : 5.33+ 0.25 BM : 5.30+0.60 Gas : 4.00+1.70
WE
Gas
Gas + Ext. cost
BM+Ext cost
WE+ Ext. cost
ECU
cent
/kW
h
(Combined cycle Gas Turbines)
Gas vs RES Power Plants Production costIncluding External cost
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
HY
GE
BM Average Cost in 98 PV : 30 HY : 8.25 GE : 7.00 WE : 5.33+0.25 BM : 5.30+0.6 Coal : 3.70+5.4
WE
Coal
Coal + Ext. cost
BM+Ext cost
WE+ Ext. cost
ECU
cent
/kW
h
(Pulverised fuel combustion plants with gas treatment)
Coal vs RES Power Plants Production costIncluding External cost
RES cost – supply curve for 2010
Cost of electricity (c€/kWh) with the energy produced (annual GWh) from a specific energy source (wind, biomass, geothermal and hydro)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
123456789
10
Small Hydro Geothermal Biomass Big Hydro Wind
Annual Supply (GWh)
Cost(c€/kWh)
0-22-44-6
8-106-8
18-2016-1814-1612-1410-12
410410192192
154154173173
210210
8686
8888
RES cost – supply curve for 2010
Cost of electricity (c€/kWh) with the energy produced (annual GWh) from a specific energy source (wind, biomass, geothermal and hydro)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
123456789
10
Small Hydro Geothermal Biomass Big Hydro Wind
Annual Supply (GWh)
Cost(c€/kWh)
0-22-44-6
8-106-8
18-2016-1814-1612-1410-12
average generation cost 3.55 c€/kWh
economic and external cost of new conventional PP
new PP generation cost
Metode usporedbe održivosti
• metoda eksternog troška• multikriterijalna analiza
• eksergija i eksergoekonomija• emergija
Multikriterijalna analiza
• Indikatori opisuju pojedini sustav• Environmental indicators
– Carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and particulate emissions
• Social indicators– Health Indicator, Social Acceptance, Employment
• Economic indicators– Capital Investment Cost indicator and the Fuel Cost
indicator
LIFE LIFE CRO CHPCRO CHPScenariosScenarios
• Three scenarios to be taken into consideration
– ProCHP scenario• most beneficial for development of CHP; based on
scenario developed by Energy Institute “Hrvoje Požar”
– Business as Usual scenario• considered as a most probable case if no changes of the
present situation happen in the future
– ContraCHP scenario• case when cogeneration doesn’t develop in Croatia and
existing district heating network is being slowly replaced with other energy providing solutions
ctt
Scenarios
490
820
913
490
1008
1095
490
611
721739
683657657
757
891
596631657
0,00
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1000,00
1200,00
2000 (base) 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Cap
acity
[MW
]
Business as usualProCHPContraCHP
Scenariji razvoja kogeneracije u RH
Cogeneration sustainability indicators
Indicator UnitProCHP scenario Business as Usual
scenarioContraCHP
scenario
Carbon dioxide emissions indicator
[kg/kW he] 0,7068 0,7634 0,8109
Sulphur dioxide emissions indicator
[kg/kW he] 0,003326 0,003221 0,003131
Particles emissions indicator
[kg/kW he] 0,0002334 0,0002354 0,0002369
Health Social Indicator [$/kW he] 0,00881 0,00855 0,00835
Public acceptance social indicator
- 356 482 181
Specific Investment Cost
[€/kW ] 761,39 783,35 1163,86
Specific Fuel Cost [€/kW hel] 0,0444 0,0515 0,0556
Table 1. Sustainability indicatorsTable 1. Sustainability indicators
Sustainability assessment procedure
• Multicriteria decision making procedure was used for sustainability assessment
• The sustainability assessment procedure was based on Decision Support System’s Shell (DSSS) program ASPID3W – a computer realisation of the ASPID method (ASPID – Analysis and Synthesis of Parameters under Information Deficiency)
• The assessment procedure can be described as a series of steps
1) Selection of environmental, social and economic indicators and their calculation
Sustainability assessment procedure
2) Formation of particular membership function – aggregation of sets of indicators and normalization of indicators values
– Environmental, social and economic indicators are aggregated into one indicator for each scenario considered.
– After the aggregation, indicator sets are normalized - each indicator obtains the value between 0 and 1 depending on the mutual relationship between indicator’s values
Scenario Environmental Indicator (EI)
Social indicator (SI)
Economic Indicator (EcI)
ProCHP 0,727 0,279 0,941
Business as Usual 0,557 0,776 0,607
ContraCHP 0,162 0,500 0,000
Table 2. Values of normalized sustainability indicators for eacTable 2. Values of normalized sustainability indicators for each of the scenariosh of the scenarios
3) Selection of different cases – definition of constraints which are imposed as regarded preference of the specific criteria
– Different criteria (in this case environmental, social and economic criteria) can have different preference from the decision maker point of view. In the decision making procedure that reflects in the different weighting coefficients assigned to specific scenario.
– Three different cases were taken into consideration, reflecting the difference in mutual relation in weighting factors on the decision making procedure.
– Cases:
1) Priority is given to the environmental criteria
1) Priority is given to the social criteria
2) Priority is given to economic criteria
Sustainability assessment procedure
4) Formation of an aggregative function for each of the cases and General Index of Sustainability (GIS) rating
• For each case, the General Index of Sustainability is obtained by aggregation of before normalized sustainability indicators into one general index.
• The results of analysis, thus General Index of Sustainability rating as well as weighting coefficients rating are presented on so called ASPID diagram.
• In the following slides the ASPID diagram representing the weighting coefficients rating and General Index of Sustainability rating are presented for each of the cases.
• Each ASPID diagram presents the value of specific variable (weighting factor or GIS), the standard deviation and probability of dominancy between options under consideration.
Sustainability assessment procedure
General Index of Sustainability• Case 1: EI>SI=EcI
EI=Environmental Indicator weightingSI=Social Indicator weightingEcI=Economic Indicator weighting
Figure 3. Weighting coefficients rating in case 1
Figure 4. General Index of Sustainability rating for case 1
General Index of Sustainability• Case 2: SI>EI=EcI
EI=Environmental Indicator weightingSI=Social Indicator weightingEcI=Economic Indicator weighting
Figure 5. Weighting coefficients rating in case 2
Figure 6. General Index of Sustainability rating for case 2
General Index of Sustainability• Case 3: EcI>EI=SI
EI=Environmental Indicator weightingSI=Social Indicator weightingEcI=Economic Indicator weighting
Figure 7. Weighting coefficients rating in case 3
Figure 8. General Index of Sustainability rating for case 3
• električna energija
• toplina
• transport
• obnovljivi izvori?
• nuklearna energija?
• energetska efikasnost?
• fuzija?
• neka sasvim nova tehnologija?
ElectricityDemand
37,0 TWh
62,3 TWh
Biomass49,4 TWh
FuelTotal49,4TWh
14,7 TWh
53,5 TWh
District HeatingGrid loss
25 % HeatDemand
56,8 TWh
Transport(50,7 TWh)equivalent
CHP, HP andPower plants
WindPower
37,0 TWh
42,8 TWh
14,0 TWh18,0 TWh
31,4TWh
Household &Industry
Danska alternativa 20?0
Solar thermal2,1 TWh
PhotoVoltaic
17,8 TWh
H2
H2Electrolyser
Solar panels
COMMODITIES
Gasification
Heat
Electricity
Cold
HydrogenStorage
Water
Wastewater
Biogas
Solar
Wind
Sustainable Community
RESOURCES TECHNOLOGIES
PV panels
Electrolysis
Fuel cellTrigeneration
Hydrogen
Desalination
Reforming
Sea
Biomass
Hydro Fresh water
Reversible hydro p.p.
Waste
Biofuels
EsterificationFermentation
Geothermal
Biomass p.p.
Wind turbines
Geothermal p.p.
Wastewater treatment
Hvala!