www.drewry.co.uk
Multipurpose & Heavylift Shipping Market Outlook
Susan Oatway - Senior Analyst for Multipurpose & Breakbulk Shipping
Breakbulk Europe 2019Bremen 23rd May 2019
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Agenda
• Vessel Supply‒ Vessel classification‒ Fleet composition‒ Newbuildings – orders and deliveries‒ Demolitions‒ Fleet development
• Cargo Demand‒ Dry cargo demand‒ MPV market share‒ Pressures on demand
• Market Outlook‒ Challenges and conclusions
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Vessel Supply
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Vessel Supply
Drewry classification of the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet
• Multipurpose (no gear): An MPV with TEU and grain capacity but no cranes.
• Multipurpose (geared): An MPV with TEU and grain capacity and cranes with a maximum combinable lift of less than 100t SWL.
• Project carrier: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 100t SWL built after 1989.
• Heavylift vessel: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 100t SWL built before1989.
• Premium Project carrier: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 250t SWL built after 1989.
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Vessel SupplyFleet by sector by dwt segment, 1 May 2019
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyMultipurpose vessel (no gear) fleet age profile, 1 May 2019
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyMultipurpose vessel (geared) fleet age profile, 1 May 2019
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyProject carrier & Heavylift vessel fleet age profile, 1 May 2019
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyPremium project carrier fleet age profile, 1 May 2019
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyMaximum lift by vessel sector
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
Maximum average lift of Crane #1is 50t in the 20-35,000 dwt sector
Maximum average lift of Crane #1is 193t in the 15-20,000 dwt sector
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Vessel Supply
Orderbook schedule as at 1 May 2019
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel Supply
Fleet slippage data, 2012 - 2018
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel Supply
Demolition by segment
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyFleet development
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
Multipurpose (no gear & geared) deliveries
Project carrier and Heavylift deliveries
Multipurpose (no gear & geared) demolitions
Project carrier and Heavylift demolitions
Multipurpose (no gear & geared) fleet (right axis)
Project carrier and Heavylift fleet (right axis)
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Cargo demand
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Cargo demand
Development of dry cargo demand
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Cargo demand
Development of MPV market share
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Cargo demand
Competition for market share
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Pressures on demand – Flagging global trade
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
Cargo demand
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Global Trade
Geopolitical Risk
Economic Growth
Tariff barrier and trade war
Regulatory Uncertainty
Product Miniaturisation
3D/4D Printing
Digital Disrupters
Nearshoring / regionalisation
Pressures on demand - Drivers of trade deceleration
Cargo demand
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Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
Cargo demandPressures on demand – Crude oil price
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Cargo demandEffective demand for the multipurpose sector
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Outlook
ConsolidationConsolidation events against average TC rate
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Market outlook Multipurpose freight market Index, based on timecharter rates received from brokers
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Conclusions
• Outlook• Low demolition candidates over 2018, led to slight
improvement in fleet numbers but expectation is for contraction over longer term. Project carrier fleet expecting strong growth against decline of the simple multipurpose vessel.
• Global GDP and investor confidence are positive drivers for this sector. However the uncertainty surrounding these will dampen any market improvements.
• Challenges and Opportunities• The ongoing US / China trade war has the potential
to severely damage competing markets, prompting increased competition for these cargoes.
• Of growing importance to shippers is the financial health of the carriers – a robust due diligence procedure is necessary in today’s climate
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