Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Integrated Assessment through the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Prof. A.H. ZakriUnited Nations University Institute for Advanced Studies
March 2003
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Outline
Rationale for Integrated Assessments
MA Conceptual Framework and Design
Status of Working Groups
Organization, Products and Timing
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
ModelsIntergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) & Ozone Assessment
Assessment
Monitoring Research
Stakeholders: GovernmentsPrivate SectorCivil Society
Science Assessment: A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers
RationaleRationale
Scientific assessments provide valuable information to decision-makers; most focus on single issues or sectors such as climate change, agriculture, or forestry
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Integrated or ‘multi-sectoral’ scientific assessments are a better match with scientific capacity and better meet
decision-makers needs
Capacity doesn’t exist to meet growing demand for assessment information on an issue-by-issue or sector by sector basis.
Unrealistic to expect the global scientific community to undertake IPCC-like assessments for all other global conventions (Biodiversity,Desertification, Wetlands, Migratory Species, etc.)Multiple assessment processes would also place far to great a demand on individual countries for expertise, input and involvement.
Moreover, the major problems and decisions being faced today are increasingly multisectoral.
For example, an assessment addressing only food supply or agriculture production can’t help a decision-maker grapple with trade-offs between agricultural production, clean water, biodiversity conservation and aquaculture production
RationaleRationale
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Integrated assessments are better able to examine the trade-offs involved in resource management decisions
Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.
Freshwater supply and demand
Food supply and demand
Forest product supply and demand
Biodiversityloss
Climatechange
Water availability
Water use and nutrient loss
Erosion andwater flow
Loss
and f
ragmen
tation
of ha
bitat
Redu
ced r
esilie
nce t
o cha
nge
Habit
at los
sHabitat loss
Loss of crop genetic diversityHabitat change
Change in transpiration & albedo
N, C
H 4, N 20
emiss
ions
Hydro
logic
CO2
and
tempe
rature
chan
ges
Precipitation & temperature
Land transformation
RationaleRationale
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
For example, separate assessments of climate, biodiversity or water might yield different priorities for conservation areas. An integrated assessment allows the trade-offs among these goals to be examined.
Climate Assessment- Carbon sequestration
Biodiversity Assessment- Species Richness
Water Assessment- City Watershed
Multiple Benefits
Watershed boundary
RationaleRationale
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Outline
Rationale for Integrated Assessments
MA Conceptual Framework and Design
Status of Working Groups
Organization, Products and Timing
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004:Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of:
- Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), - Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), - Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,- Convention on Migratory Species (CMS)- other partners including the private sector and civil society
Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-beingUndertaken at multiple scales (local to global)Designed to both provide information and build capacity Expected an assessment modeled on the MA will be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it successfully meets needs
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The MA focuses on:
Ecosystem servicesProvisioning: e.g. food, water, fiber, fuel woodRegulating: e.g., flood control, disease controlCultural: e.g. spiritual, recreational, aestheticSupporting: e.g. pollination, soil formation
The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being.
The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from ecosystems
RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of
ecosystem processes
• climate regulation• disease control• flood control• detoxification
ProvisioningGoods produced or
provided by ecosystems
• food • fresh water• fuel wood
• fiber• biochemicals
• genetic resources
CulturalNon-material
benefits obtained from ecosystems
• spiritual • recreational • aesthetic
• inspirational• educational • communal• symbolic
SupportingServices necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services.
• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling
• Primary production
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
SecurityAbility to live in an environmentally clean
and safe shelterAbility to reduce vulnerability to ecological
shocks and stress
Regulating ServicesBenefits obtained from regulation of
ecosystem processesclimate regulationdisease regulationwater regulationwater purification
Cultural ServicesNon-material benefits obtained from
ecosystemsspiritual and religious
recreation and ecotourismaesthetic
inspirationaleducational
sense of placecultural heritage
I i i
Ecosystem Services
Provisioning ServicesProducts obtained from ecosystems
foodfresh waterfuel wood
fiberbiochemicals
genetic resources
Supporting Services
Services necessary for the production of all
other ecosystem services
Soil formationNutrient cycling
Primary Production
Basic Material for a Good LifeAbility to access resources to earn income
and gain a livelihood
Health Ability to be adequately nourishedAbility to be free from avoidable diseaseAbility to have adequate and clean drinking
waterAbility to have clean airAbility to have energy to keep warm and
coolAbility to have access to medicinesGood Social RelationsOpportunity to express aesthetic and
recreational values associated with ecosystems
Opportunity to express cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems
Opportunity to observe, study and learn about ecosystems
Freedoms and
Choice
Ecosystem Services influence multiple constituents of human well-being
Constituents of Well-being
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Conceptual FrameworkLocal
= Strategies and Interventions
Regional
Human Wellbeing & Poverty Reduction
Basic Material for a good lifeHealth Good social relationsSecurityFreedoms and choice
Indirect Drivers of ChangeDemographic ChangeEconomic Change (incl globalization, trade, market, & policy framework)Social and Political Change (incl governance, institutional, & legal framework) Technological changeLifestyle and Behavioral change
Global
Life on Earth
Ecosystem Services
Provisioning (food, water) Regulating (disease control))Cultural (spiritual, aesthetic) Supporting (primary production, soil formation)
Life on Earth: Biodiversity
DesignDesign
Direct Drivers of ChangeChanges in local land use and land coverSpecies introductions or removalsTechnology adaptation and useExternal inputs (e.g., fertilizer use, pest control, irrigation)HarvestClimate changeNatural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes, evolution) uninfluenced by people
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Design
Political legitimacyScientific credibilitySaliency
MA
RamsarRamsarCCDCCDCBDCBDSBSTTA CST STRP
MA
Authorized by three conventions and UN
Good governmental policy must be based on reliable scientific data. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is an outstanding example ofthe sort of international scientific and political cooperation that is needed to further the cause of sustainable development. - UN Secretary General Kofi A. Annan, April 3, 2000, We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century
Based on IPCC Procedures and Structure4 Working Groups~ 500 Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead AuthorsNorth-South, Regional, Disciplinary, and Gender BalanceIndependent Review BoardTwo rounds of peer review (Government and Expert review; > 1500 reviewers)Line-by-line sign-off by “users” (represented on Board)Policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive
Follows IPCC procedures
International Conventions & National Governments
Private Sector
Civil Society
Joint needs of multiple users
Key needs of individual users
Focus strongly shaped by audience
DesignDesign
FCCCFCCC
IPCCIPCC
SBSTA
Research, UN Data, National and International AssessmentsFCCC: Framework Convention on Climate Change SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical AdviceSBSTTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice CST: Committee on Science and TechnologySTRP: Scientific and Technical Review Panel
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The MA is a Multi-scale AssessmentExpect that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other scales
Regional
UsersRegional Development Banks, etc.
NationalGovernment
Local Community
Global Assessment
National
Local
RationaleCharacteristic scale of processes
Greater resolution at smaller scales
Independent validation conclusions
Response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Candidate assessments
Approved assessments
Proposals
PNG islands
SouthernAfrica
multiple local
WesternChina
3 Major Basins
India Local
ASB sites(1)
Sweden Local
Norway
BC coast
Bolivia
Arabia
Sao Paulo
Portugal
Colombian Andes
Altai-Sayan
Vilcanota, Peru
Sinai
Atacama, Chile
Costa Rica
Indonesia/ Arafura Timor
Central Asia
Fiji
Trinidad/ Caribbean
Himalayas
Philippines
Vietnam Mekong
~3-4 SEA regional
MA Sub-global Assessments
(1) ASB: Alternatives to Slash and Burn –multiple local sites worldwide
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA has sought to establish “multi-scale assessments”. Southern Africa assessment involves three scales
SADC region 3 drainage basins Local assessments
Source: Reyers, B., SAfMA Lessons Learned (Panama, June 2002)
Zambezi
Gariep
Okavango
DesignDesign
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Outline
Rationale for Integrated Assessments
MA Conceptual Framework and Design
Scope of Working Groups
Organization, Products and Timing
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Working Groups
Condition Working GroupWhat is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services?What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being?
Scenario Working GroupGiven plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being?Responses Working Group
What can we do about it?
Sub-Global Assessment Working GroupAll of the above… at sub-global scales
Working GroupsWorking Groups
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Examples of questions that the MA is addressing:
Source: Burke et al. 2000 Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, WRI
Biogeochemical cycles: What will be the consequence of the expected 30% increase in human contribution to fixed nitrogen over the next 30 years for ecosystems and human well-being?
Existing Hypoxic Zones
Working GroupsWorking Groups
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
How many species will go extinct over the next three decades? And what impact will that have?
What are the highest priority areas to conserve?
What would it take to achieve targets discussed in the CBD for biodiversity conservation?
Working GroupsWorking Groups
Examples of questions that the MA is addressing:
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
What has been the impact of ecosystem change on human health?
What policies and actions concerning ecosystems can best contribute to the alleviation of poverty?
Working GroupsWorking Groups
Examples of questions that the MA is addressing:
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Outline
Rationale for Integrated Assessments
MA Conceptual Framework and Design
Scope of Working Groups
Organization, Products and Timing
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Ma Organizational Structure
MA BoardMA Board
Assessment PanelWorking Group ChairsAssessment PanelWorking Group Chairs
Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group
Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse
Global Assessment Working Groups
Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,
Logistics, Data Management
Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,
Logistics, Data ManagementOutreach &
EngagementOutreach &
Engagement
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Review Board Chairs
Review Board Chairs
Chapter Review Editors
Chapter Review Editors
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Board
A 40-member Board representing “Users” of the findings of the MA process
Co-chairs: Robert Watson, A.H. Zakri
Institutional Representation- Conventions and UN agencies - Donors (GEF, UN Foundation)- International science organizations (CGIAR, ICSU, IUCN)
At large representation- Private sector, NGOs, scientists, indigenous people
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Assessment Panel
Co-ChairsAngela Cropper, The Cropper Foundation, TrinidadHarold Mooney, Stanford University, USA
Panel MembersDoris Capistrano, Ford Foundation, IndiaSteve Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, USAKanchan Chopra, Institute for Economic Growth, IndiaPartha Dasgupta, Cambridge University, UKRashid Hassan, University of Pretoria, South AfricaRik Leemans, National Institute of Public Health & Environment, The NetherlandsRobert May, Oxford University, UKPrabhu L. Pingali, International Maize & Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), MexicoCristian Samper, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, PanamaBob Scholes, CSIR, South AfricaZhao Shidong, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
OrganizationOrganizationOrganization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Centre
(ICLARM), Malaysia
Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Centre
(ICLARM), MalaysiaSub-Global TSU,
ICLARM, MalaysiaSub-Global TSU,
ICLARM, Malaysia
Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.
(& South Africa)
Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.
(& South Africa)
Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France
(& Mexico, United States)
Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France
(& Mexico, United States)
Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic
Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)
Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic
Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)
GEF, UNF Grant AdminUNEP,Kenya
GEF, UNF Grant AdminUNEP,Kenya
Supported by a Distributed Secretariat
Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,
USA
Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,
USAMeeting Support
Meridian Institute, USAMeeting Support
Meridian Institute, USA
TSU: Technical Support Unit
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Timeline2001 2002 2003 2004
April: 1st technical design meeting (Netherlands)
October: 2nd technical design meeting (Cape Town)
November: Call for nominations for working groups
January: 2nd MA board meeting (Kuala Lumpur)
March –December:CLAs and LAs invited
1st MA working group meetings
Conceptual Framework draft undergoes peer review
Selection of Additional Sub-global Assessments
2nd Working group meetings
Cross-cut Team meetings
Release of “Conceptual Framework Assessment Report”
DecemberBeginning of review process for assessment reports
Review process
November:Release of Assessment Reports and Initial Synthesis Report
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Capacity Building
Sub-Global AssessmentsAccess to Data/InformationTraining MaterialsYoung Fellows ProgramScenarios and Modeling Training CoursePartnerships for Distance Learning etc.
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Assessment Outputs
Conceptual Framework (2003)
Assessment Reports (2004)Sub-global Assessment Condition/Trends AssessmentScenario AssessmentResponse Options AssessmentSummary Volume (SPMs of 4 reports)
Sub-Global Assessment Reports and Products
India Pilot Assessment (2000)SAfMA Pilot Assessment (2002)Norway Pilot Assessment (2002)Assessment Reports (2003 to ??)
Synthesis ReportsBiodiversity (2004)Desertification (2005)Wetlands (2005)Private Sector (2005)Human Well-being (2005)
Other ProductsRadio, documentaries, InternetPartnerships to enable distribution to broader audience
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
How to get involved?
1. Provide input on issues that the MA should addressa. What are the priorities for information and methods as seen from
the perspective of potential users?
2. Participate as experts in the global assessment
3. Participate in the review process (government, academic, private sector, NGOs)
4. Apply MA findings, information and data within country or region
5. Incorporate MA methods in national and sub-national assessments and planning processes
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Mechanisms for Involvement
1. National delegations to Conventions2. MA Affiliated Scientific Organizations and National Academies of
Sciences (ASO)3. Sub-global assessments
a. SGAs are self-generated and self-funded (i.e., MA doesn’t decide where they take place). Opportunity to lay groundwork for assessments that would continue after the MA is concluded
4. MA User Forumsa. Preliminary meetings held in 20 countries involving 700 peopleb. Informal multi-sectoral groups, linked to ongoing national
environmental and sustainable development planning activitiesc. Groups will
1. Help to coordinate input into the MA (e.g., review processes)2. Receive MA information and documents3. Help to ensure outreach to relevant users
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Sponsors
Financial contributions
Sponsors• Global Environment Facility • United Nations Foundation • Packard Foundation • World Bank
Other Donors• United Nations Environment Program • Government of Norway • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia• Rockefeller Foundation• NASA
In-kind contributions
• Government of Norway• Government of China• European Commission• FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP• NASA • ICRAF, ICLARM• Numerous other countries and
institutions are supporting travel costs of experts
Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Use the MA Website and Intranet
www.millenniumassessment.org&
www.millenniumassessment.org/intranet/
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment