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Measuring Environmental Impacts
David MellKnowledge Manager – NERIP
Conversation with NERIP, 7 November 2007
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70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
ind
ex19
90
=10
0
GDP
Greenhouse gasemissions
Kyoto target
Measuring Environmental Impacts
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Problem? What Problem? …
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
ind
ex19
90
=10
0
GDP
Greenhouse gasemissions
Kyoto target
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… the shape of the regional economy is changing
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Man
ufac
turin
g
Pub
lic S
ecto
r
Bus
ines
sS
ervi
ces
Tou
rism
,T
rans
port
and
Dis
trib
utio
n
Con
stru
ctio
n
Prim
ary
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of G
VA
by
Se
cto
r
1992
1997
2002Percentageof North EastGVA
Manu-facturing
Public Sector
BusinessServices
Tourism,Transport, Distribution
Con-struction
Primary
Manufacturing accounting for less
Services accounting for more
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Production and Consumption Perspectives
Place of Production
Pla
ce o
f C
on
sum
pti
on
UK Abroad
UK
Ab
roa
d
Goods and services produced and consumed in UK
Imports: consumed in UK, produced elsewhere
Exports: produced in UK, consumed elsewhere
Rest of the World
Consumption Focus
Pro
du
ctio
n F
ocu
s
Complementary perspectives
Production: Efficiency, technology, etc
Consumption: Behaviour, lifestyles, etc
REAP: Addresses the consumption perspective
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UK CO2 Emissions
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Household
Capital investment
Government
Other
Emissions fromproduction
Emissions fromconsumption
10.76 t/cap 11.81 t/cap
CO
em
iss
ion
s t/
ca
p2
Understanding whether numbers are quoted from a production or consumption perspective is vital
Understanding whether numbers are quoted from a production or consumption perspective is vital
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Ecological Footprint
The land area required to provide continuously all the natural resources and services for the consumption of a given population wherever that land might be
Measured in global hectares per capita(gha/cap)
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Comparative Ecological Footprints
W Europe 5.1gha/cap
UK: 5.4gha/cap
USA: 9.5gha/cap
China: 1.5gha/cap
World:
• Supply 1.8gha/cap
• Demand 2.2gha/cap
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The challenge for regional development
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Overview of
Resources and Energy Analysis Program Key outputs
• Ecological Footprint (gha/capita)
• Carbon Footprint (tonnes CO2/capita)
Based on detailed analysis of how the UK economy works
Has a consumption focus Can be used to make environmental assessments
of policy Developed by the Stockholm Environment
Institute• WWF and SCP-Net are key partners
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REAP User InterfaceNE Footprint = 5.185 gha/cap
Final demands of the economy
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Footprints can be disaggregated by type of consumption
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Using REAP as an interactive database
Explore footprints by geography Explore components of footprints
4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6
casttyne
newcdurhberwalnwnortteesdarlblyt
chesstocsoutgateredcmiddsundderwwanssedghart
weareasi
EFP (gha/cap)
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North East Household Footprint: Top 10 Sources
Food
Domestic fuel and landconsumption
Catering services
Electricity and gasdistribution
Private transport (car fuel)
Transport services
Other recreational items &equipment
UK resident holidays abroad
Purchase of vehicles
Household appliances
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Consumption behaviour is measured using over 100 separate variables
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We can explore policy options by creating scenarios ….
Modify one or more consumption behaviour variables
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… and looking at the impacts
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Key points
REAP measures impact of consumption behaviour
• Outputs: footprint measures (CO2, ecological)
• Inputs: consumption behaviour (~100 variables)
Policy scenarios• Views of how consumption behaviour might change in
response to policy interventions
• Effect of such changes on footprint measures
The holy alliance• Policy wonks and modelling nerds
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But does this mean anything in the real world ?
Examples of REAP in action• Evaluation of housing policy: Leeds City Region
• Tees Valley Footprint Report
• Evaluation of impact of regional strategies on climate change: Y&H Assembly
• Up and coming: evaluation of sustainable transport policy
Consumption perspective (REAP)• Influencing individual behaviour
• Regional vs local roles
Production perspective• Other tools: REEIO, development of regional
environmental accounts (DUBS Model)
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Measuring Environmental Impact Regional stages of development
Stage 1: Awareness
• Aware of need to engage with tools like REAP and REEIO
• Cautious policy users, sometimes frustrated technical users
• Evaluations contracted out
Stage 2: Stepping Forward
• Policy and technical users starting to work together
• Developing evidence base that is influencing key regional documents
• Clear home for the evidence base agreed
Stage 3: The confidently capable region
• Policy users can frame ideas in terms of “evidence base”
• Technical users extending/developing the “evidence base”