MUSLIM VOTERS 1>

MAYANK MISHRA & SAHIL MAKKAR

Begusarai/Supaul (Bihar), 14 April

Resigned to politicalmarginalisation, MohammedMustafa, a resident of Bihar’sBegusarai district, still hopes fora favourable outcome in this

election. His hope springs from efforts bypolitical parties to win over a big chunk ofMuslim votes before every election.

“Call it indifference or therealisation that the chance of successis quite low, but only a few Muslimsare actually interested in becomingpart of the political process. All wewant is that parties put a premiumon securing our votes. And, we votefor parties sensitive to the interestsof our community,” says Mustafawho works for a finance company innearby Supaul district.

The Muslim vote can impact outcomes ina number of constituencies. Around 76districts across India have Muslimpopulations in excess of half a million.Muslims make up more than half thepopulation in 20 districts and more than aquarter in 38 others.

In terms of Lok Sabha seats, there are 15Muslim majority constituencies. In another38, the percentage of Muslim voters rangesfrom 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can decisivelyimpact the outcome in these 53 seats and cantilt the balance in 49 others, where they makeup 20-30 per cent of the electorate. Altogether,102 Lok Sabha constituencies (see chart)haveMuslim populations in excess of 20 per cent;yet the 15th Lok Sabha had no more than 30Muslim members.

The prospect of a decisive edge in over 100constituencies nudges political partiestowards pro-Muslim rhetoric. BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) President Rajnath Singhhas, thus, offered to apologise for any pastmistakes by his party. The Congress keepsharping on the BJP’s communal agenda. Butwhen it comes to nominating candidates,Muslims do not get their share.

In 2009, the Congress nominated 31Muslim candidates (3.73 per cent) and theBJP four. Of the 402 candidates announcedby the Congress for the 2014 polls, 29 areMuslim. The BJP’s scorecard reads six of 400.The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fared better,fielding 37 Muslims in a list of 339.

“The blame should be shared by theleadership, as well as the community. Peopledeserve the leadership they choose,” IshratAziz, a former diplomat, says philosophicallyto explain Muslim under-representation.

Few candidates mean fewer MPs. A studyby Christophe Jaffrelot, a French politicalscientist, concludes that “except in 1980,when the percentage of Muslim MPs in theLok Sabha at nine per cent was roughlycomparable to the percentage of Muslims inthe Indian population (11.4 per cent,according to the 1981 Census), the communityhas always been under-represented in

Parliament”. In the 1990s, the percentage ofMuslim MPs fell to nearly five per cent. Thesituation improved in 2004 with Muslimrepresentation going up to nearly six per centbut dipped to 5.52 per cent in 2009.

Muslims do not vote as a bloc, contrary tothe popular perception. Non-Muslims wonfive of the 16 Muslim-majorityconstituencies in the 2009 Lok Sabhaelections. “There is nothing called theMuslim vote bank. Data clearly show the

community votes very much like anyother electoral group. Who thecommunity votes for depends on ahost of local, regional and nationalfactors,” says Sanjeer Alam of theCentre for the Study of DevelopingSocieties (CSDS). Taking the pointforward, Manindra Nath Thakur ofJawaharlal Nehru University says,“The presence of multiplecandidates in constituencies with a

sizeable presence of Muslims only shows thecommunity, too, has its fair share of divisionalong caste and class lines.”

Under-represented they may be butMuslims are enthusiastic voters. Theirvoting percentage is higher than most othersocial groups. Whom they voted for in the

past can offer hints on how they are likely tovote this time. According to a CSDS analysisof the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, theCongress got more Muslim votes than theSamajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. TheCongress’ vote share among Muslimsclimbed over 10 percentage points and theSamajwadi Party’s share fell almost 16percentage points. That could be a reason forthe Congress’ performance in the state in theprevious elections. Muslims constitute over18 per cent of the electorate of Uttar Pradesh.“There is no Muslim vote bank in thecountry. The data clearlysuggests only 32 per centvoted for the Congress in the2009 elections. It means 68per cent are divided,” sayspolitical analyst andpsephologist Jai Mrug.

In West Bengal, where theCongress in alliance with theTrinamool Congress didwell in 2009, theybagged almost 60per cent of theMuslim vote. TheLeft partieshad less than40 per cent.Almost a fourth

the state’s electorate is Muslim and thecommunity does impact electoral outcomes.In Bihar, too, where the Congress sufferedreverses, the party managed more Muslimvotes in 2009 than Lalu Prasad’s RashtriyaJanata Dal, according to CSDS.

The political marginalisation of Muslimsaccompanies economic deprivation. Datafrom the National Sample SurveyOrganisation (NSSO) and the Sachar panel,set up in 2005 to review the socio-economicdevelopment of Muslims, show thecommunity lags on all indicators.

An average Muslim boy in the 7-16 agebracket is likely to receive three years andfour months mean-years of schooling againstthe national average of four years. A quarterof Muslim children in the 6-14 age brackethave either never attended school or havedropped out. Muslims constituted 1.3 percent of those studying in the Indian Institutesof Management in 2004-05, 1.7 per cent in theIndian Institutes of Technology and a merefour per cent in top medical colleges.

The community had 4.9 per cent of allgovernment jobs, 7.2 per cent in publicundertakings, 2.2 per cent in banking and4.7 per cent in universities. The NSSOestimates an average Muslim spent ~980 a

month in 2009-10, against the nationalaverage of ~1,128.

Some observers feel the deprivationmight need individual, as opposed tocommunal, solutions. “We should neitherseek nor accept reservation. We want a rightto life and property and a level playingfield,” says Aziz. He adds the only wayMuslims, and for that matter any deprivedsection of society can be lifted, is by simplyfollowing the principle that “no talentshould be allowed to be left behind”.

Not everyone share’s Mustafa’s hope fromthis election. “Muslims have voted in large

numbers without being fully aware of thepower of their vote,” says Ijazur Rehman, aresident of Bihar’s Siwan district, who hasstudied at Jawaharlal Nehru University

and supports the Left. Muslim deprivationis a function of the lack of a middle class and

leadership the community has had in thepast, he adds.

The paradox ofcourtship and

marginalisationAs many as 102 Lok Sabha constituencies across 17 stateshave Muslim population in excess of 20 per cent and the15th Lok Sabha has just 30 MPs from the community (itaccounted for 13.4% of India’s population, according tothe 2001 Census). The community, however, may havebeen vastly under-represented, as in 1980, when 48

Muslim MPs were elected to the Lok Sabha, thecommunity constituted 11.4% of the population,

according to the 1981 Census

“THERE IS NOTHING CALLED A MUSLIM VOTE BANK.DATA CLEARLY SHOW THE COMMUNITY VOTES VERYMUCH LIKE ANY OTHER ELECTORAL GROUP”

DECODING THE NUMBERSA lookat the keynumbers which could influence theway the Muslims vote in the LokSabha elections

PROPORTION OFLANDLESSHOUSEHOLDS* (%)

PERCENTAGE OF ILLITERATES

ATTENDANCE RATE* (%)

Rural Urban

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

Rural Urban

Rural Urban

WHO HAVE MUSLIMS VOTED FOR?2009 LokSabha polls, according to CSDS study (in %)

NO. OF CANDIDATESCONTESTING THE LOKSABHA ELECTIONS

TRACKING THE MUSLIM VOTE IN 102 SEATSIndia has 15 Muslim-majority Lok Sabha constituencies; in another 38,the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslimscan tilt the balance in 49 other constituencies, where they make up20-30 per cent of the electorate

ANDHRA PRADESH Muslim populationConstituency (in %)

Secunderabad 41.20Hyderabad 41.20

ASSAM Muslim populationConstituency (in %)

Dhubri 67.40Karimganj 54.20Barpeta 52.00Nowgong 50.10Silchar 36.10Mangaldoi 35.50Gauhati 24.80Kokrajhar 21.30

BIHAR Muslim populationConstituency (in %)

Kishanganj 67.60Katihar 42.50Araria 41.10Purnia 36.80Darbhanga 22.70Valmiki Nagar 21.20Paschim Champaran 21.20Sitamarhi 21.20

CHHATTISGARH Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Raipur 61.00Bastar 24.50Rajnandgaon 23.60Mahasamund 21.40

GUJARAT Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Bharuch 21.40Kachchh 20.80

HARYANA Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Gurgaon 37.20

JAMMU & KASHMIR Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Anantnag 98.20Baramulla 97.50Srinagar 95.80Ladakh 47.40Udhampur 32.00Jammu 29.60

JHARKHAND Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Rajmahal 32Godda 20Giridih 20

KARNATAKA Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Dakshina Kannada 22.10Bidar 20.00

KERALA Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Malappuram 68.50Ponnani 68.50Vadakara 37.50Kozhikode 37.50Kasaragod 34.30Kannur 27.60Wayanad 26.90Palakkad 26.90Alathur 26.90

LAKSHADWEEP Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Lakshadweep 95.50

MADHYA PRADESH Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Bhopal 22.90

MAHARASHTRA Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Mumbai South Central 22.00

Mumbai South 22.00

NCT OF DELHI Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Chandni Chowk 29.90North East Delhi 27.20

UTTARAKHAND Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Haridwar 33.00Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar 20.60

UTTAR PRADESH Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Rampur 49.10Moradabad 45.50Sambhal 45.50Bijnor 41.70Nagina 41.70Amroha 39.40Saharanpur 39.10Kairana 38.10Muzaffarnagar 38.10Shrawasti 36.70Bahraich 34.80Aonla 33.90Bareilly 33.90Meerut 32.60Domariyaganj 29.40Baghpat 24.70

Sant Kabir Nagar 24.00Ghaziabad 23.80Pilibhit 23.80Barabanki 22.00Badaun 21.30Bulandshahr 21.10Mohanlalganj 20.50Lucknow 20.50

WEST BENGAL Muslim population

Constituency (in %)

Jangipur 63.70Baharampur 63.70Murshidabad 63.70Maldaha Uttar 49.70Maldaha Dakshin 49.70Raiganj 47.40Bolpur 35.10Birbhum 35.10Joynagar 33.20Mathurapur 33.20Diamond Harbour 33.20Jadavpur 33.20Krishnanagar 25.40Ranaghat 25.40Howrah 24.40Uluberia 24.40Cooch Behar 24.20Bangaon 24.20Barrackpore 24.20Dum Dum 24.20Barasat 24.20Basirhat 24.20Balurghat 24.00Kolkata Dakshin 20.30Kolkata Uttar 20.30

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“THE NATION FACESDANGER FROMCOMMUNAL FORCES. WE SHOULD ENSURESECULAR VOTES ARE NOT DIVIDED”SYED AHMED BUKHARI

Imam, Jama Masjid

“YOUNG AND EDUCATEDMUSLIMS WILL VOTE FOR AAP.IN THIS ELECTION, THERE WILLBE SURPRISE WINNERS ANDLOSERS, COURTESY TO STRATEGIC

VOTING BY MUSLIMS”JAI MRUG

Psephologist

VOICES

“ACROSS THE BOARD,MUSLIMS WILL UNIFORMLYVOTE AGAINST THE BJP. IN THAT SENSE THEY AREONE BUT OTHERWISE THEYARE DIVIDED”MUSHIRUL HASAN

Former vice-chancellor, Jamia Millia Islamia

*includes households with lessthan 0.001 hectare of land andthose which which reported noinformation on land possessed

*percentage of people below 30 years attending educational institutes

MONTHLY PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (~)

Source: NSSO data and Election Commission

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BATTLEGROUNDELECTIONS

2014

Source: CSDS