Linwood PendletonSenior Fellow
The Ocean Foundation Adj Associate Professor
UCLA
Dr. Perla Atiyah and Ryan Vaughn
UCLA© Laura Brophy
Determining the Impact of Coastal Restoration on Human Use: Zuma Lagoon
22
Restoration of Zuma Lagoon
Zuma Lagoon Before (1987) and After Restoration (2002)
Source: Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission
© californiacoastline.org © californiacoastline.org
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
Zuma Lagoon: After Restoration
© Perla Atiyah
Can’t Just Look At Policy Site
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Att
enda
nce
(x10
00)
Year
Zuma BeachZuma Beach
Restoration
Does Coastal Restoration Affect Visitation: Zuma Lagoon
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Att
enda
nce
(x10
00)
Zuma Beach All Beaches (excluding Zuma)
PANEL DATA
1)BEFORE2)AFTER3)WITH4)WITHOUT
NEED ENOUGH DATA FORSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS!
26 Beaches, 10 Years of Data
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nicholas Cyn
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Zuma Beach
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Santa Monica (S)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Manhattan Beach
11
Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before and After Diversion
Other Factors: Storm Drain Diversions
12
Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before & After Diversion
Before After
13
Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: Before Diversion
14
Pico-Kenter Storm Drain: After Diversion
Model Affect on Beach Visitation
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance -------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy Interventions1) Restoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 2) Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
Control for Other Factors
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
Control for Other Factors
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
Control for Other Factors
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance-------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -22,108 0.17 Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -13,946 0.07 Warm Days Inland 8,117 0.08 Warm Water Days (>65F) 4,090 0.23
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -64,016 0.29 Wet + Dry HTB Grade 29,064 0.25
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure 35,971 0.86Local Population Growth 83,114 0.94
Policy InterventionsRestoration at Zuma 1,369,263 0.00 Storm Drain Diversion 630,862 0.00
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
The Impact is Statistically > > 0
attendance (# visits/beach/year) Coef. Significance -------------+-----------------------------------------------Weather
Rainy Days at Beach -20,344 79%
Warm Days at Beach (>75f) -12,701 90% Warm Days Inland 7,240 88% Warm Water Days (>65F) 3,584 71%
Water QualityClosed mile-days prior yr -62,361 70% Wet + Dry HTB Grade 31,481 89%
Other FactorsKanan Dume Road Closure -31,834 23%Local Population Growth 251,478 18%
Policy Interventions
Restoration at Zuma 1,200,744
99%Storm Drain Diversion 610,324 99+%
w/in R2 =.21, b/w R2 =.17, 257 observations, 26 groups
Restoration sig with logY =log X and log Y = X
Restoration/Mitigation Increase Visitation
Additional Annual Visits due toRestoration at Zuma 1.2 million
Storm Drain Diversion 600,000
Some Economic ContextAverage spending/visit ~ $27, • $32 million/yr in additional spending at restoration (cost = $158,000 plus in kind contributions and volunteers)
• $16 million/yr in additional spending at storm drain diversion sites (cost <$620,000)
Restoration/Mitigation Increase Visitation
Additional Annual Visits due toRestoration at Zuma 1.2 million
Storm Drain Diversion 600,000
Some economic contextNon-market value/visit ~ $16, • $19 million/yr in additional non-market value at restoration site (cost <$158,000 +)
• $9.6 million/yr in additional non-market value at storm drain diversion site (cost <$620,000 plus maintenance)
Conclusion• Need to demonstrate (empirically) affect of restoration on people.
•Need long term data, at many sites, to understand local impacts of restoration.
•Need to collect a set of consistent human use and environmental/ecological data in estuary and coastal areas
•Restoration•MPAs•Pollution/mitigation•Development, etc.