Kjell Aleklett
Kjell AleklettUppsala University, Sweden
Kyoto, Japan, November 2006
Kjell Aleklett
Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère
1998 March
Kjell Aleklett
Victor Hugo
The French author Victor Hugo wrote the last night in his life:
"More powerful than all the armies in the world is an idea whose time has come."
(Il y a une chose plus forte que toutes les armées du monde, c'est une idée dont le temps est venu).
Kjell Aleklett
ASPO – The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas
“Peak oil isn't about the economics of oil but the geology of it.”
"The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration,
recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."
Kjell Aleklett
The oil era started 1859
in Pennsylvania,
USA
Kjell Aleklett
Jack 2 and Himalaya
Jack 2
8.588 meter
8.848 meter
2.100 meter
Kjell Aleklett
When will we run out of oil?
Not in our lifetime as there always will be a tiny production. For the crude oil from the oldest producing
oil well in the world I paid $10.000 per barrel
Kjell Aleklett
An Inconvenient Truth
Kjell Aleklett
“An Inconvenient Truth About Oil”
Kjell Aleklett
Oil and natural gas
are produced in petroleum systems
Kjell Aleklett
There must be places where we can find more oil
Oil endowment - USGS
Kjell Aleklett
Extrapolation into the future
150 billion barrels
Kjell Aleklett
3.3000 Gb in year 2025Forecast by USGS
Kjell Aleklett
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A World Addicted to Oil
"We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world,"
Kjell Aleklett
How much energy is bound in oil?
100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh
What can you do with 1 kWh?
You can move a small car to the
top of the Eiffel tower! Filling you car with 50 liter is equal to the energy you need to move 500 cars to top of the Tower. If you drive an SUV for one mile you use oil with the same energy content as pulling the SUV to top of the Eiffel Tower.
Kjell Aleklett
Before the oil age, Sweden 1945
When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedishvillage used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: wehad replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle,and tractors were seen in the fields.
Kjell Aleklett
Energy in Sweden during 100 years
TWh
From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich.
BioCoal
Hydro
Oil and gas
Nuclear
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1900 1920 1940 1960 1974 1982 1990 1998
A factor of five
Kjell Aleklett
Olja föder välfärd
Kjell Aleklett
Oil consumption per capita for some developing
countriesPer capita petroleum consumption (index 1980=1)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
China
India
Indonesia
SSA
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Vol 104 Issue 31 Aug 21, 2006
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Vol 104 Issue 31 Aug 21, 2006
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Energy consumption in USA
2030: 27,7 mbpd
2004: 20,7 mbpd
Increase: 7,0 mbpd
Kjell Aleklett
Energy production in USA
2030: 4,6 mbpd
2004: 5,4 mbpd
Decline: 0,8 mbpd
Kjell Aleklett
Numbers for ChinaPercentage of global population: 21%,
Percentage of global oil production: 4,5 %, 3,6 Mbpd
Percentage of global oil consumption: 8,5%, 7,0 Mbpd
Average increase in GDP last 5 years: 8 – 10 %
Average increase in oil consumption last 5 years: 8 %
China will reach Peak Oil production in 2009
Question:
Is it OK that China consume 21% of the global oil production, today 18 mbpd but in year 2030 25 mbpd?
Kjell Aleklett
China: Discovery and Production
Production will start to decline within 5 years
Oil Discovery and Production of China
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
Pro
du
cti
on
[G
b]
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
Dis
co
very [
Gb
]
Production
Discovery
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Asia Pacific Dependency of Middle East Oil
Data presented at the APERC Energy Outlook Workshop, 16 September 2004, Tokyo, Japan, by Yoshiki Ogawa
14 mbpd
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New discoveries from 1995 till 2025 is 100 billion barrels found and 100 billion barrels expected to be found. USGS mean prediction for the same time period is 649 billion barrels.
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US Lower 48
US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr
deepwater
Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003
depression
oil price
proration
35 years
Kjell Aleklett
Drill for oil when the price is right!
Kjell Aleklett
USA oil wells
Kjell Aleklett
US Lower 48
US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr
deepwater
Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003
depression
oil price
proration
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Jeroen van der Veer
January 24 2006
My view is that “easy” oil has probably passed its peak.
…..
.. But we have deep water and oil sand.
Kjell Aleklett
Harry Longwell, ExxonMobil
"Contrary to some widely held beliefs, discovered volumes, over a long period of time, have not been closely related to price fluctuations. They have been driven more by the evolution of technology and geopolitical developments that improve access." - ExxonMobil Executive Vice President, Harry Longwell
Kjell Aleklett
Deepwater Discoveries and the Largest Field per Region
•
Roncador (Brazil) 2.6 Gb Dalia (Angola) 0.94 Gb
Bonga (Nigeria) 1.0 Gb
Thunder Horse (US GoM) 1.0 Gb
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Mil
lio
n B
arre
ls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US
Do
llar
per
Bar
rel
Other AfricaAsia-PacificUS Gulf of MexicoNigeriaAngolaBrazilNominell Price
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Deepwater Production Forecast
•
Deepwater Production
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Dai
ly P
rod
uct
ion
(b
pd
)Other Africa
Asia-Pacific
US Gulf of Mexico
Nigeria
Angola
Brazil Jack???
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Vol 104 Issue 31 Aug 21, 2006
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The Middle East
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Saudi Arabia
Official numbers:
Oil in place: 720 billion barrels
Produced so far: 105 bb, 15%
Reserves to produce: 260 bb, 36%
Recovery factor: 15%+36%=51%
Oil in place to find: 200 bb
Kjell Aleklett
Recovery of the world
Saudi recovery factor
Kjell Aleklett
Saudi Arabia
Oil in place: 720 billion barrels
Produced so far: 105 bb, 15%
Reserves with 29% IOR: 104 bb
Reserves with 38% IOR: 169 bb
Years of world consumption: ~4 to 5
Kjell Aleklett
Total 115 bb in 2033
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Russia
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Oil Discovery and Production of Russia
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year
Pro
duct
ion
[Gb]
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dis
cove
ry [G
b]
Production
Discovery
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Found and produced oil in Norway
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Pro
du
cti
on
per
year
[Gb
]
0.0
1.8
3.6
5.4
7.2
Dis
co
very
per
year
[Gb
]
Discovery
Hubbert Curve of Discovery
Production
Production Forecast
The time between tops is 27 years
Kjell Aleklett
Norway official numbersOljeproduksjon, Norsk kontinentalsokkel
Alle ressurskategorier
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
MS
m3
Uoppdagede ressurserRessurser i funnRessurser i feltReserverFaktisk
Produsert per 31.12.2005: 3,0 GSm3Gjenværende reserver: 1,2 GSm3Ressurser i felt: 0,4 GSm3Ressurser i funn: 0,1 GSm3Uoppdagede ressurser: 1,2 GSm3
M:\Lag\D-RessAnalyse\EKM\Totalprod.xls
Kjell Aleklett
These countries can not export an extra 30 million
barrels per day!
Kjell Aleklett
Vol 104 Issue 31 Aug 21, 2006
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The world needs new oil fields
ExxonMobil:
In other words, by 2015, we will
need to find, develop and produce a
volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being
produced today.
Kjell Aleklett
A Producer’s Perspective on the Oil Industry
London 2004
Sadad I. Al-Husseini
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
Kjell Aleklett
2025201520051995
120 mm b/d
80 mm b/d
100 mm b/d
60 mm b/d
40 mm b/d
+ 38.6 mmbd82 +/-
120.6Reservoir capabilitydeclines: the leaking bucket syndrome
3-5 % capabilitydecline rateExxonMobil: 4-6 %
20 mm b/d
97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025
- 59 mmbd97.6mmbd
2% increase
Kjell Aleklett
Kjell Aleklett
The first field in the North Sea was discovered in year 1969. The oil production peaked 30 years later with a maximum production of 6 mbpd. Is it possible to make new discoveries within 25 years that will yield a production of 25 mbpd in year 2030?
Kjell Aleklett
Jeroen van der Veer
January 24 2006
My view is that “easy” oil has probably passed its peak.
…..
.. But we have deep water and oil sand.
Kjell Aleklett
Oil sand and crude oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
300B
illio
n B
bls
Saudi Arabia
IranIraqUnited Arab EmiratesKuwaitVenezualaRussiaLibyaNigeriaU.S.Canada´s Oil Sands
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Oil from oil sand i Canada, (Energy Policy, in print)
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1000
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7000
2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Year
Th
ou
san
d B
bls
Pe
r D
ay
Total Mining, Crash Program Total In Situ, Crash Program
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Production of Oil from Canada, the North Sea and Oil Sand in
Canada
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
Th
ou
sa
nd
BB
ls P
er
Da
y
Conventional Oil Production, Canada + The North Sea Canadian Oil Sands, Crash Program Production
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Statement by the Swedish Prime Minister Göran Persson
“The oil might be in decline? We have someone here in Uppsala named Aleklett that claims that.”
The Swedish government has appoint a commission that just has suggested what to do to make Sweden less dependent on oil by 2020.
Kjell Aleklett
Statements on oil by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
WWW.KVA.SE
Kjell Aleklett
Phasing out dependency on oil in Sweden
The Commission on Oil Independence sees five strong reasons for phasing out Sweden’s dependency on oil:
1. We will reduce Sweden’s climate impact.
2. We will secure Sweden’s supply of energy in the long term.
3. We can be a leading nation in the development of new technology for sustainable use of energy and more efficient use of energy.
4. We will strengthen our international economic competitiveness.
5. We will use and develop the energy resources from forest and fields, “Sweden’s green gold”.
Kjell Aleklett
The commission proposes the following national objectives
for more efficient use of energy and reduce
dependence on oil by 2020 Swedish society as a whole should be able to make 20 per cent more efficient use of energy by 2020 and thereby at the same time create intensified, cost-efficient prosperity that is sustainable in the long term.
By 2020 in principle no oil should be used for heating residential and commercial buildings.
Road transport, including transport in agricultural, forestry, fisheries, and building sectors, should reduce use of petrol and diesel by 40-50 per cent by 2020.
Industry should reduce its use of oil by 25-40 per cent by2020.
Kjell Aleklett
Energy is running the world
Money is not running the world, money is used to buy energy
NYMEX
Kjell Aleklett
My grandchildren Olivia and Olof will face Peak Oil before they are 20 years
old
Kjell Aleklett
God to Noah: Build the Ark now as it is hard to do it under the water.
Kjell Aleklett