JEC Biofuels Programme
Overview of Results
A joint study by JRC / EUCAR / CONCAWE
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Presentation Outline
SlidesNote 3
1. Executive Summary 4 – 52. JEC Biofuels Programme 6 – 83. Background to the Study 9 – 114. “Fleet & Fuels” Model 12 – 185. Non-road Transport Sectors 19 – 206. Reference Case 21 – 257. RED Implementation Scenarios 26 – 338. Sensitivity Analysis 34 – 389. Biofuel Supply Outlook 39 – 46 10. Summary 47 – 4811. JEC Biofuels Programme: Contributors 4912. Appendix 50 – 89
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NoteThe JEC Biofuels Program is a technical exercise intended to assess possible biofuelimplementation scenarios for achieving EU renewable energy targets in the transport sector by 2020. These scenarios have been assessed by modelling and other analyses.
The JEC “Fleet & Fuels” (F&F) Model is a simulation tool for scenario assessment
What the model does:The model is a scenario assessment tool that enables the user to simulate the possible development of the European vehicle fleet as well as the total fuel and biofuel demand to 2020. The model is based on a historically reasonable 2010 reference case and assumes trends in the fleet, fuel and market development over the coming decade. It further allows the evaluation of important RED and FQD targets as well as the sensitivity of the results to vehicle fleet, fuels, and biofuels assumptions.
What the model does not do:Due to the assumptions and simplifications selected for this study, the model is not a quantitative tool for predicting the future. No model can truly do this.The model does not lead to a single globally optimized solution but does allow a side-by-side comparison of various scenarios of fleet and fuel development.The model does not assess the cost implications associated with the fleet & fuel scenarios.
Disclaimer
This exercise is not intended to commit the JEC partners to deliver any particular scenario or conclusion included in this study.
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1. Executive Summary: Key Conclusions
The JEC RED scenario analysis is characterized by its objectives:Focus is on the technical feasibility of the 10% energy RED*) target with an associated calculation of FQD**) Article 7a GHG savingsRealistic assumptions made regarding vehicles, fuels and renewablesStudy does not assess viability, costs, or logistics of analyzedscenariosStudy also does not assess commercial readiness of analyzed scenarios“Integrated Approach”, i.e. all transport modes and actors are considered although with a focus on road transport
Overall the RED implementation scenarios should be viewed in light of:RED-% from each scenario depends on the underlying assumptions and should be considered as “theoretically achievable”Scenario results have been further studied by sensitivity analyses
*) RED: EU Renewable Energy Directive (Dir 2009/28/EC)**) FQD: EU Fuel Quality Directive (Dir 2009/30/EC)
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1. Executive Summary: Key Conclusions
Scenarios exist that achieve the RED 10% energy target for renewable energy in the transport sector with the given assumptionsNone of these scenarios achieves the minimum 6% GHG target (FQD Art. 7a) with the given assumptions (ILUC* not considered)
Realization of the scenarios depend on :Biofuel supply, especially the availability of sustainable biofuels to Europe CEN specifications, potential vehicle compatibility and pace of introductionCompatibility of the supply and distribution system for all fuel products Non-road contributions to RED-%, especially HVO/BTL use by the aviation sectorEach scenario would need policy measures (including incentives) to enable a smooth transition from today to the “theoretically achievable” projections
Much more technical work is needed to ensure feasibility of these scenarios and compatibility with upcoming Euro 6 emissions limits
Compatibility of vehicles with higher biofuel blends still to be proven and will require time, testing and investmentMulti-stakeholder coordination and timely decisions will be essentialSeamless transition is important to ensure continued customer confidence
ILUC*: Indirect Land Use Change
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The JEC research collaboration was initiated in 2000 by
JRC: Joint Research Centre of the European CommissionEUCAR: European Council for Automotive R&DCONCAWE: Research Association of the European Oil Refining Industry
2. JEC Biofuels Programme: A Short History
Collaborative Projects2000-2007: Projects Completed
Well-to-Wheels (WTW) Study Versions 1, 2b, and 2c( http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW )WTW Study Version 3: enhancing pathways and vehicles( http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW )Impact of ethanol on vehicle evaporative emissions (SAE 2007-01-1928)Impact of ethanol in petrol on fuel consumption and emissions (report in preparation)
2008-2011: Projects In-progress2009-11: Major revision of WTW Study (Version 4)2008-10: JEC Biofuels Programme for a 2020 time horizon
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2. JEC Biofuels Programme: Objectives
Objectives of the JEC Biofuels Programme:
Clarify the opportunities and barriers to achieve 10% renewable energy (on an energy basis) in the transport sector by 2020
Focus on road transport with the development of an EU27+2 “Fleet & Fuels”Model as the main supporting tool
Focus on conventional and alternative fuels and biofuel blends while accounting for growth in alternative powertrains over decade
Develop biofuel implementation scenarios in which the introduction of biofuel blends to meet the 2020 target is seamless to consumers and results in no detrimental impact on vehicle performance and emissions
Three-year JEC Program initiated in February, 2008 (2008-2010)
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Develop a consensus demand and supply picture of biofuel types and availability needed to meet the 2020 Renewable Energy Directive target
Review and analyze projections and other data for 2008-2020Biodiesel, ethanol, and others, including conventional and advanced productsConsider domestic production and importsInclude most recent updates on WTW energy and GHG implications
Analyze possible biofuel implementation scenarios within the 2010-2020 regulatory framework, including pros and cons
2. JEC Biofuels Programme: Approach
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Vehicles:More advanced engines & aftertreatment, diversification in engines and fleet Fuel consumption of LD vehicles falling, HD diesel demand slightly increasingIncreasing pressure on CO2 emissions with associated higher costCustomer preferences potentially in conflict with mobility policies
Refineries:Increasing diesel/gasoline demand ratioHigher CO2 emissions due to diesel demand and product specificationsIncreasing pressure on CO2 emissions with associated higher cost
Biofuels and other Renewables:Renewables in transport fuels mandated to 10% (energy basis) by 2020Conventional biofuels widely available but with sustainability concernsSlower than expected pace of development for advanced biofuelsPace/priorities differ across Member States, potentially leading to fuel diversityCEN specifications are struggling to keep pace with legislative mandates
3. Background: The Coming Decade for European Road Transport
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Renewable Energy Directive (RED) Requires Member States to meet 10% renewable energy share in the transport sector by 2020Requires sustainable cultivation and production of Biofuels as well as minimum greenhouse gas (GHG) savings per energy unit
Fuels Quality Directive (FQD) Requires fuel suppliers to achieve at least 6% GHG saving from fuels supplied in 2020 with indicative targetsSpecifies an E10 main grade with E5 ‘protection grade’ for older vehicles
Vehicle Regulated EmissionsLight-duty (LD) passenger cars: Euro 5/5b to 2014, Euro 6 from 2015 onwardsHeavy-duty (HD) vehicles: Euro V to 2013; Euro VI from 2014 onwards
Vehicle CO2 EmissionsLD passenger cars: new vehicle fleet average 130g/km by 2015 and review of 2020 targetsLight Commercial Vehicle (LCV) fleet: Commission proposal of new fleet average of 175g/km by January 1st 2016, review of 2020 targets
3. Background: EU Regulatory Environment
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3. Background: Current Projections of Transport Demand EU27+2 Transport Energy Demand: [Mtoe]
2008 EuroStat
2020 JEC F&F Reference Scenario
2020 DG TREN (1)
On-Road 303 281 350
Diesel 188 186
Light Duty 69
Heavy Duty incl. Vans 117
Gasoline 100 66
Biofuels 10 21.5
Other: CNG, LPG, electricity 5 7.8
Rail (Diesel & Electricity) 9.5 10
Aviation 54 73
Inland navigation 6.5 6
Other off-road (Diesel) 14 20 *)
Total 387 390 **) 419
Other studies have been used to base case JEC projections and provide input on non-road energy demand (see Appendix 12.7)
DG TREN: data for non-road transport sectors are used (**)TREMOVE: historical data and methodology, used as basis for fleet development in ‘Fleet & Fuels’ modeliTREN2030: implementation of the economic recession Wood Mackenzie: biofuel supply projections and other off-road diesel demand (*)
“Apples to apples” comparisons for the energy demand projections towards 2020 were not always straightforward amongst the studies 1)
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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Model Overview
A spreadsheet-based model has been developed to simulate the EU27+2 vehicle fleet development and the demand for fossil fuels and biofuels
The model can be used to simulate different combinations of vehicles, fuels, and biofuels to assess different biofuel implementation scenarios
Total fuel demand and diesel/gasoline balance Total biofuels demand, including ethanol and biodiesel, HVO, etcTotal renewable energy demand, including electricity, biogas, etcRenewable energy demand for road transport to be used for RED calculationsGHG emissions reduction according to FQD Article 7a
Parameters relevant to fuel demand included (for example):Passenger car, van, bus and coach and heavy-duty truck demandVehicle efficiency and improvement in efficiency over timePercentage diesel in new car salesIntroduction of alternative vehicles (FFV, LPGV, CNGV, electric vehicle, etc.)Vehicle model year (vintage) assumed compatible with fuel grade
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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Model Overview
TREMOVE data and other sources used to provide historical input on vehicle fleetFleet compositionFleet fuel economyActivity (km driven)Per vintageSeparate diesel and gasoline vehicles
Forward-looking input for the development of the fleet to 2020New sales, total population, and total activity (km driven)% diesel of new car salesVehicle scrappage rate assumed to follow a typical S-curveAlternative vehicle fleets (e.g. CNGV, FFV, EV)Fuel economy of new cars is based on NEDC
‘Real world’ factor included to estimate total fuel demand
Impact of the 2008-2009 economic recession factored in: Model incorporates latest HD sales data (ACEA) and iTREN methodology
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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Vehicle and Fuel Options
Seven LD passenger car types (and fuel type options)Gasoline, Diesel, Flex-Fuel Vehicle (FFV)Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Liquefied Propane Gas (LPG)Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Three Van classes (and fuel type options)Gasoline (Gasoline, CNG, LPG, xEV) Small Diesel <2.5 tonnes (Diesel, CNG, LPG, xEV)Large Diesel >2.5 tonnes (Diesel, CNG, LPG, xEV)
Five Heavy-duty vehicle classes (and fuel type options)3.5 to 7.5 tonnes (Diesel, CNG)7.5 to 16 tonnes (Diesel, CNG)16 to 32 tonnes (Diesel, CNG, E95, DME)> 32 tonnes (Diesel)Buses and coaches (Diesel, CNG, E95)
xEV: represents the various electrified vehicles as BEV, PHEV, FCEV
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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Vehicle and Fuel OptionsAdjustable parameters that can be changed individually for each vehicle type
Sales and stock annual growth rateVehicle activity: annual km driven (LD, LCV), annual t-km (HD)Vehicle fuel efficiency Alternative vehicle 2020 sales shareAlternative vehicle sales start year% replacement of gasoline or diesel cars by alternative vehicle% use of alternative fuel in alternative fuel vehicles (e.g. E85 take-up rate for FFV)
Fuels implementationOptimistic assumption for biofuel blending at max allowed specification (e.g., 10% v/vethanol minus 0.1% v/v blending tolerance) Up to 3 different gasoline grades: ‘protection grade’, main grade, and E85Up to 2 different diesel grades: ‘protection grade’ and main grade
For the main diesel grade, market uptake by HD, LCV, LD vehicle and vehicle vintage compatibility can be independently set
Vehicle vintage compatible with each fuel gradeHVO or BTL are included in diesel pool assuming full backward compatibilityAdvanced Ethanol (lignocellulose based) is replacing/added to gasolineOther Oxygenates (e.g. ETBE): not specifically modeled but would be allowed up to the maximum oxygen specification
Renewable Energy Directive specifics are implemented including “extra credits” for advanced biofuels and renewable electricity
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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Example Model Outputs
Vehicle fleet development for the
Reference Scenario (1)
LD new car sales showing the growth of alternative vehicles
LD vehicle fleet showing the impact of new car sales on the overall fleetNote growth in the LD diesel fraction over the decade
Car: Share of powertrain types in new sales
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020
BEVPHEVFFVLPGCNGGasolineDiesel
Car: Share of powertrain types in total stock
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020
BEVPHEVFFVLPGCNGGasolineDiesel
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4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Example Model Outputs
Road transport fuel demands
Reference Scenario (1) including the impact of the economic recession
Reference Scenario excludingthe impact of the economic recession
Energy demand by fuel type in road transport sector
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2005 2010 2015 2020
Roa
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toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG to HD
LPG to LD
CNG to HD
CNG to LD
Gasoline to LD
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Energy demand by fuel type in road transport sector
50
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300
350
Roa
d fu
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02005 2010 2015 2020
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG to HD
LPG to LD
CNG to HD
CNG to LD
Gasoline to LD
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
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Calculation of the overall RED-% of renewable energy in transport (Art. 3(4) of the RED):
All types of energy from renewable sources consumed in all forms of transport1)
RED-% = Petrol, diesel, biofuels consumed in road and rail transport, and electricity (in transport) but excluding off-road 2)
4. ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Renewable Energy Calculations
Focus of the JEC Biofuel Programme: Model renewable energy in road transport. Use RED methodology to calculate ROAD-% contributions. These ROAD-% must be combined with assumptions for other transport sectors to calculate the RED-%.
1) Renewable energy in Road, Rail, Aviation, Inland Navigation and Pipeline Transport2a) Off-road means mobile machinery (forestry, agriculture, and construction) ~20Mtoe2b) CNG & LPG in road transport are not included, BUT: Biogas ( = biofuel) is includedApplication of factors:
“Advanced Biofuels” count 2 times in numerator (support)- Definition: biofuel from waste, residue and non-food cellulosic material, Article 21(2)
“Green Electricity“ for road transport counts 2.5 times in numerator & denominator (efficiency factor)- Definition: electricity from renewable sources, Article 3(4)
All types of energy from renewable sources consumed in road transportROAD-% =
Petrol, diesel, biofuels consumed in road and rail transport and electricity (in transport) but excluding off-road 2)
Calculation of the contribution of road transport to the RED 10% target:
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5. Non-road Transport Sectors: Outlook
AviationProjections range from 562) - 731) Mtoe consumption by 2020Jet fuel specification likely to allow only HVO or BTL in this decadeHVO/BTL or ETS certificates are options to offset GHG emissionsAviation fuel consumption excluded from FQD but included in RED
Rail~10 Mtoe consumption by 2020 1) 2)
Fuel by 2020: ~70% electricity, ~30% Diesel (DG TREN1) )Rail Diesel: likely shifts to road diesel quality fuel by 2020Diesel will likely contain FAME, HVO, BTL, the same as road diesel (i.e. B7 = reference blend)
Inland navigation~6 Mtoe consumption by 2020 1) 2)
Likely shifts to road diesel quality fuel by 2020Diesel will likely contain FAME, HVO, BTL, the same as road diesel (i.e. B7 = reference blend)
Other off-road diesel~20 Mtoe consumption by 2020 (JEC estimate)Diesel will likely contain FAME, HVO, BTL, the same as road diesel (i.e. B7 = reference blend)Other off-road fuel consumption excluded from RED but included in FQD
1) DG TREN: "European Energy and transport trends to 2030, Update 2007“2) iTREN 2030, 2009
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Fuel demand non-road sectors (Mtoe)Rail fuel "fossil" Electricity 4,6Renewable Electricity 2,5Fossil Diesel 2,8FAME 0,2Sum rail 10,0
Aviation fuel Gasoline 0,15Kerosene 72,9Sum aviation 73,0
Inland navigation fuel Fossil Diesel 5,6FAME 0,4Sum inl. nav. 6,0
Other off-road fuel Fossil Diesel 18,7FAME 1,3Sum other off-road 20,0
RED Contributions non-road (%)Rail 0,9%Water 0,1%Aviation 0,0%Other off-road 0,0%Sum RED-% non-road 1,0%
5. Non-road Transport Sectors: 2020 OutlookRED denominator 2020:
Road transport energy demand: 281 Mtoe, RED: 275 MtoeRail transport energy demand: 10 Mtoe, RED: 10 MtoeInland navigation energy demand: 6 Mtoe, RED: 6 MtoeSum denominator RED methodology: 291 Mtoe*
Rail 2020: ~70% of rail fuel demand by electricity: 7 Mtoe
Assuming 35% RES: 2.45 Mtoe: ~0.85% RED*~30% of rail fuel demand by diesel: 3 Mtoe
Assuming B7: 0.2 Mtoe: ~0.07% RED*
Inland navigation 2020:6 Mtoe diesel, B7 in total sector 0.4 Mtoe: ~0.1% RED*
Aviation 2020: second largest energy share, ~73 MtoeAssumption: no contribution
Other off-road 2020: 20 Mtoe, assumption: B7 in total sector: 1.3 MtoeNo RED-contribution as other off-road fuel consumption excluded from RED *: applied in RED calculations for all scenarios
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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Fleet ParametersPassenger cars
New car average CO2 target in 2020: 95g/km (used for calculation purpose, figure is proposal for 2020 but subject to review) Diesel / gasoline sales share 2020: 50% / 50%Sales in 2020: 20 mil/a; Fleet in 2020: 270 milAlternative fuel vehicles enter the market Financial crisis impacts miles travelled, however fleet mileage increases to 2020
VansNew van average CO2 target in 2020: 175g/km (used for calculation purpose,legislation under negotiation)Sales in 2020: 1.5 mil/a; Fleet in 2020: 28 milAlternative fuel vehicles enter the marketFinancial crisis impacts miles travelled, however fleet mileage increases to 2020
HD trucksNew truck average YoY efficiency improvement: ~1.5%Sales in 2020: 0.8 mil/a; Fleet in 2010: 15 milFinancial crisis impacts tkm and sales, but dynamic growth to 2020Alternative fuel vehicles enter the market in specific HD classes (and MS markets)
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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Alternative Fleet Parameters
1: Cars in 2020 from TREMOVE baseline: 270 million in vehicle fleet; 20 million in new car sales
Alternative Fuel Passenger Cars In 2020 New Sales In 2020 Vehicle Fleet1
Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV) 1% 0.5%
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV) 4%0.8 Million
2%~5 Million
Liquefied Propane Gas Vehicles (LPGV) 2%0.4 Million
2%~5 Million
Electric VehiclesBattery Electric (BEV) & Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV)
3%0.6 Million
1%2.7 Million
Alternative Fuel Vans In 2020 New Sales In 2020 Vehicle Fleet1
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV) 4% 1.7%
Liquefied Propane Gas Vehicles (LPGV) 1% 0.4%
Flex Fuel Vehicles (FFV) 1% 0.3%
Electric VehiclesBattery Electric (BEV) & Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV)
2%24 Thousand
0.4%90 Thousand
In 2020 New Sales
Alternative Fuel Heavy Duty Vehicles 3.5t to 7.5t 7.5t to 16t 16t to 32t Bus-Coach
Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV) 2% 1% 1% 5%
Di-Methyl Ether Vehicles (DMEV) == == 0.5% ==
95% Ethanol (E95) Vehicles == == 1% 2%
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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 – Fuel Parameters
Biofuel gradesRamping up to E5 by 2011
• No vehicle compatibility restriction (protection grade)
New E10 (main) grade from 2011• Vehicle compatibility with E10 from 2005+
model yearRamping up to B7 by 2010
• No vehicle compatibility restrictionAssumes 1 Mtoe FAME/HVO coming from waste oils
• RED-factor of two, source: DG ENER• High quality of FAME required
Additional biofuelsRamping up of HVO, BTL, Adv. Ethanol
Biomass-to-Liquids(BTL)
Hydrogenated Vegetable Oils (HVO)
Advanced Ethanol
Start year 2012 2009 2012
Production simulation Linear ramp to 2020+ 1.6 Mtoe step to 2012
+ 1.4 Mtoe linear ramp from 2012 to 2020
Linear ramp to 2020
Availability in 2020 [Mtoe] 0.25 3.0 0.64
Biofuel blends in EU market
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2005 2010 2015 2020
%vol
Gasoline Grade 1 (E5)Gasoline Grade 2 (E10)Diesel Grade 1 (B7)Diesel Grade 2
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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Results
Results comparing 2010 and 2020:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases by 24%Diesel demand increases by 6%Diesel demand increases 13% for LD and 3% for HDDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.8
Large biofuel volumes will be needed, increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED: 9.7% with 1.0% contribution from non-road sectorsFQD: -4.4% GHG emissions savings reached
Energy demand by fuel type in road transport sector
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Roa
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LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 117Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 186Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 12,80HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 5,32EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 4,68EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 8,6%Sum RED-% 9,7%
FQD GHG saving -4,4%
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6. Reference Case: Scenario 1 - Results
Alternative fuel demand results:FAME dominates biofuel marketFAME demand increasing to 2010 driven by B7 specificationEthanol demand increasing to 2010 driven by E5 specificationEthanol demand increasing beyond 2010 driven by E10 introductionHVO and BTL demand follow availability assumptions (backward compatible - not grade dependent)CNG/CBG demand driven by introduction of CNGV mainly in LD but also in HD
FAME / Ethanol demand by 2020, RED developmentFAME demand in all transport sectors will be ~15 Mtoe/a, increasing from 1.5 Mtoe (2005), 7.9 Mtoe (2008)Ethanol demand will be ~5 Mtoe, increasing from 0.7 Mtoe (2005), 1.8 Mtoe (2008)
RED renewable content: 9.7% with 1.0% contribution from non-road sectors
Alternative fuel demand in all transport sectors
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EtOH adv.
Electricity0
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7,5%
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15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Biofuel ScenariosScenario 1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
Scenario 2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
Scenario 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
Scenario 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
Scenario 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
B10 (all)
B10 (all)
B15 (HD)B7
E10 E20
E5
E10 E20
E5E10
E10
B7
B7
E5 E10
B7
E5
B7
E10
E5 E10
Scenario 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
B7
E5 E10E10 E20
B10 (HD)
Scenario 1: Reference Case
Scenarios 2 - 4:High Biofuel Grades all vehicles
Scenarios 5 - 6: High Biodiesel Grades HD only
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Scenario 7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
Scenario 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
Scenario 9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Gasoline Grade 1Gasoline Grade 2Gasoline Grade 3Diesel Grade 1Diesel Grade 2
E20
E5E10
E5 E10
E85B7
B7B10 (HD)
E10E85
E85
B7
E5E10
7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Biofuel Scenarios
Scenarios 7 - 9: Additional Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV)
The FFV scenarios feature a sales share of 4.5%, which results in a 2.5% FFV-stock (6.5 mil) in 2020.
Scenario 7:The FFV fleet requires a comparable Ethanol supply as in scenario 2 (B7, E20) and leads to the same RED-% as in scenario 2.
Scenario 8:E20 and FFVs increase the Ethanol demand and the RED-%.
Scenario 9:The FFV fleet requires a comparable Ethanol supply as in scenario 2 & 7.
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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Grades & vintage years
Grade E5 E10 E20 B7 B10 B15Year of grade introduction now-2011 2011 2017 now-2011 2017 2017
Cars & Vans compatible from All 2005 2017 All 2017 None
HD vehicles compatible from All 2017 2017
Grade E5 E10 E20 B7 B10 B15Year of introduction 2015 2015 2015
Cars & Vans compatible from 2015 2015 None
HD vehicles compatible from 2015 & All2015 & All
Grades in Scenarios:
Sensitivity cases:
All scenarios: actual biofuels content is 0.1%v/v less than the maximum specification limit
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FAME demand: 14.6 to 17.2 Mtoe (compared to 5.7 Mtoe in 2007 as per “EurObserv’ER Biofuels Barometer”)Ethanol demand: 5.3 to 9.0 Mtoe (compared to 1.2 Mtoe in 2007 as per “EurObserv’ER Biofuels Barometer”)
ROAD-% contribution: 8.6% to 9.8% RED-% (all sectors according to Directive): 9.7% to 10.9%
7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Scenario Summary
0
5
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15
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25
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
E10, B7 E20, B7 E10, B10 E20, B10 E10, B7, B15H E20, B7, B10H E10, E85, B7 E20, E85, B7 E10, E85, B7, B10H
EU27
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2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
RED
-%
FAME
Total Ethanol
RED: Road
RED: all sectors
For further details of these scenarios refer to section 12.3
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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Scenario Summary
Scenario1
( Ref ) 2 3 4 5 6 78 9
Blends in 2020
E5, E10,
B7
E10, E20,
B7
E5, E10,
B7, B10
E10, E20,
B7, B10
E5, E10, B7,
B15 (HD)
E10, E20, B7,
B10 (HD)
E5, E10, E85,B7
E10, E20,E85,B7
E5, E10, E85,B7,
B10 (HD)
1st Gen Biofuels 6.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.6% 7.2% 7.3% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7%
HVO, BTL, Adv. Ethanol 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%RED
Contri-bution by Alt. vehicles
LD: CNGV, EV, FFV
HD: CNGV, E95V, DMEV
0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
RED: Road contribution *) 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.6%
RED-% calculations using energy consumptions in 2020 by rail and inland water transport as discussed in Section 5. Calculation methodology described on page 20.
RED
contributions
Road 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.6%
Rail 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Water 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Aviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other off-road 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
RED-% *) 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.5% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6%
*) might show rounding effects
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Impact of Renewable Fuels on Fuel Quality Directive Article 7a (2009/30/EC):GHG savings includes fuels used in on-road vehicles, non-road mobile machinery (including rail and inland marine), agricultural and forestry tractors and recreational craft
GHG savings assumptions for biofuels and alternative fuels (vs. 2010 fossil fuel baseline):
2010 fossil fuel baseline emissions per unit energy = 86.7g CO2/MJ 1)
GHG savings do not assume potential improvements in biofuel production higher than 60% GHG reduction♦ 50% GHG reduction for existing biofuel plants up to 1/1/2017
♦ 60% GHG reduction for new biofuel plants from 1/1/2017
Reductions apply uniformly to all ethanol, FAME, HVO, BTL, DME, road electricity, and biogas component in CNG
CNG is assumed to contain 20% biogas in 2020
Road electricity receives a 2.5 times credit; Rail electricity is excluded
7. RED Implementation Scenarios: FQD Article 7a
1) Source: JEC WTW Version 2c fossil fuel default values and 2010 fossil fuel demand
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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: RED vs. FQD
Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Gasoline 1 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5Gasoline 2 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10Gasoline 3 E85 E85 E85
Diesel 1 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7
BiofuelBlendsIn 2020
Diesel 2 B10(ALL)
B10(ALL)
B15 (HD)
B10 (HD)
B10 (HD)
ROAD-% Road only 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 9.6%
RED-% All modes 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.5% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6%
GHG SavingsFQD Art 7a -4.4% -4.7% -4.7% -5.1% -4.9% -4.9% -4.7% -5.0% -4.9%
Contribution of renewable fuels is sufficient to achieve the RED target but not enough to meet the FQD Article 7a target for the scenarios evaluated in this study
To achieve the 6% GHG saving target (FQD Art.7a), average GHG savings for allbiofuels assumed in these scenarios would need to be in the range of 63 - 73%
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7. RED Implementation Scenarios: Pros and ConsScenario 1
(Reference)2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Petrol 1 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5 E10 E5Petrol 2 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10 E20 E10
E85 E85 E85 E85Diesel 1 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7 B7
Blendsin 2020
Diesel 2 B10 (ALL) B10 (ALL) B15 (HD) B10 (HD) B10 (HD)10% RED Target Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible Possible
Vehicle compatibility
Compatiblewith existing
fleet
Optimisation to E20
possible
Optimisation to E20
possible
B15 compatibilitywith current
HD fleet
B10 compatibilitywith current
HD fleet
Compatiblewith existing
fleet
Optimisation to E20
possible
B10 compatibilitywith current
HD fleetFuel
grades and infrastructure
Existing logistics
One diesel grade
One diesel grade
One diesel grade
Pros
Others B10 standard in preparation
B10 standard in preparation
FFV is known technology
FFV is known technology
FFV is known technology
6% CO2 target No No No No No No No No
Petrol Vehicle Compatibility
DedicatedE20 vehicle
DedicatedE20 vehicle
DedicatedE20 vehicle
Customer acceptance of
FFV?
Customer acceptance of
FFV ?
Customer acceptance of
FFV?
Diesel Vehicle Compatibility
B10 compatibility
withLD fleet & new
HD fleet
B10 compatibility
withLD fleet & new
HD fleet
B15 compatibility
withnew HD fleet
B10 compatibility
withnew HD fleet
B10 compatibility
withnew HD fleet
E85 refuelling infrastructure
E85 refuelling infrastructure
E85 refuelling infrastructureFuel
grades and infrastructure
Cons
Two diesel grades
Two diesel grades
Two diesel grades
Two diesel grades
Two diesel grades
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
Sustainable supply?
CEN standard for E20
CEN standard for E20
CEN standard for B15
CEN standard for E20
CEN standard for E20Others
Potential air quality and human health concerns associated with higher biofuel grades
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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Reference Scenario 1
The Fleet & Fuel Model has many adjustable parameters that influence the 2020 projections. These parameters can be grouped into three types:
Passenger CarVans and Heavy DutyFuels
Some parameters are linked to an introduction year or can be modelled by a ramp-up function, resulting in additional sensitivity of the model projections.
Current calculations assume an immediate uptake by compatible vehicles upon first introduction of a higher blend maximum
The next pages display the sensitivity of Reference Scenario 1 to changes in these adjustable parameters. Sensitivities are displayed as %-changes in renewable energy demand in transport (using the RED methodology).
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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Reference Case Scenario 1 – Pass Cars
Passenger Cars Parameter reference min maxSales M cars/a in 2020 20,20 16,2 24,2
Total fleet M cars in 2020 270 216 324
Total Mileage % yoy growth (2011+) 2,25% 1,8% 2,7%
CO2 sales avg 2020 g/km 95 95 120
Diesel reg. 2020 % of G+D 50% 30% 70%
CNGV sales 4,0% 2,0% 6,0%sales start year 2006
LPGV sales 0,40% 0,0% 2,6%
FFV sales 1,00% 0,0% 4,0%sales start year 2005
Electric vehicle sales 3,00% 1,5% 10,0%sales start year 2011
Sales assumptions for some alternative vehicles impact the RED-%
Parameter impact to RED-%
-0,6%
-0,4%
-0,2%
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%ca
r sal
es
car s
tock
car v
km
car C
O2
car d
iese
l reg
.
car C
NG
car L
PG
car F
FV
car E
VImpa
ct to
RED
-%
Parameter minParameter max
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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Reference Case Scenario 1 – Vans & HD
Sensitivity assumptions for vans and HD do not make a significant difference to the RED-%
Vans Parameters reference min maxCO2 sales avg 2020 g/km 175 160 175
vkm YoY growth 2011-2020 1,00% 0,8% 1,2%
CNGV sales share 2020 4,0% 2,0% 6,0%
FFV sales share 2020 1,0% 0,0% 4,0%
HD ParametersEfficiency 2011+ ALL HD classesYOY improvement 2011 - 2020 -1,45% -1,00% -1,45%Load factor ALL HD classes w/o bus&coachLoad YOY growth 2005-2020 0,080% 0,06% 0,10%Transport demand ALL HD classes w/o bus&coachtkm YoY growth 2011-2020 2,250% 1,8% 2,70%
HDV Vehicles 3.5-7.5 TonnesCNGV sales share 2020 2,0% 0,00% 4,00%
HDV Vehicles 7.5-16 TonnesCNGV sales share 2020 1,0% 0,00% 2,00%
HDV Vehicles 16-32 TonnesDME sales share 2020 0,50% 0,00% 1,00%
E95 sales share 2020 1,00% 0,00% 2,00%
CNGV sales share 2020 1,00% 0,00% 2,00%
HDV Vehicles bus&coachE95 sales share 2020 2,00% 1,00% 4,00%
CNGV sales share 2020 5,0% 0,00% 10,00%
Parameter impact to RED-%
-0,6%
-0,4%
-0,2%
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%va
n ef
f.
van
vkm
van
CN
G
van
FFV
HD
eff.
HD
load
fact
or
HD
tkm
HD
3.5
t-7.5
t CN
G
HD
7.5
t-16t
CN
G
HD
16t
-32
CN
G
HD
16t
-32
DM
E
HD
16t
-32
E95
HD
Bus
&C
. CN
G
HD
Bus
&C
. E95Im
pact
to R
ED-%
Parameter minParameter max
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8. Sensitivity Analysis: All Scenarios - Fuels
Pace of development of advanced biofuels significantly impacts RED-%
Biofuels availability 2020 reference min maxHVO [Mtoe/a] 3,0 1,5 4,5
BTL [Mtoe/a] 0,25 0,0 0,5
Adv. Ethanol [Mtoe/a] 0,64 0,00 1,28
Parameter impact to RED-%
-0,6%
-0,4%
-0,2%
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
HV
O
BTL
Adv
.E
than
ol
Impa
ct to
RE
D-%
Parameter minParameter max
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8. Sensitivity Analysis: Selected Scenarios
Impacts of sensitivity:
Timely implementation of higher biofuel levels significantly impacts RED-%; For example, a 50% reduction in uptake of the E10 grade in Reference Scenario 1 would decrease the RED-% from 9.7% to 9.3%Implementing higher biodiesel levels in non-road sectors significantly impacts RED-%Renewable electricity in rail can contribute significantly to RED-%
E20 MY2015+: requires add. 0.7 Mtoe Ethanol in 2020B10 MY2015+: requires add. 0.8 Mtoe FAME in 2020B10 MY2015+(cars)/all(HD): requires 2.3 Mtoe FAME in 2020HD B15 all: requires add. 5.2 Mtoe FAME in 2020B30 for Inl. Nav. requires add. 1.3 Mtoe FAME in 2020
Parameter impact to RED-%
-2,0%
-1,6%
-1,2%
-0,8%
-0,4%
0,0%
0,4%
0,8%
1,2%
1,6%
2,0%H
VO
car F
FV
E20
MY2
015+
B10
MY2
015+
B10
MY2
015+
(car
) / a
ll (H
D)
B15
HD
MY2
015+
B15
HD
all
Biog
as in
CN
G
Ren
ew. E
lec.
in R
oad
B30
in In
land
Nav
.
Ren
ew. E
lec.
in R
ail
Impa
ct to
RED
-%
Parameter minParameter max
Additional sensitivities Reference min maxHVO availability in 2020 [Mtoe/a] 3,0 1,5 4,5
FFV sales% 2020 1,0% 0% 4,0%
E20 MY 2015+ first model year 2017 2015
B10 MY2015+ first model year 2017 2015
B10 MY2015+ (cars) & all (HD) first model year 2017 2015/all
B15 HD MY2015+ first model year 2017 2015
B15 HD all first model year 2017 all
Biogas in CNG Share e/e [%] 20% 0% 40%
Renewable electricity in road trans. Share e/e [%] 35% 100%
B30 for Inland Navigation FAME blend B7 B30
Renewable electricity in rail trans. Share e/e [%] 35% 100%
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Demand from scenarios
Will these quantities of bio-components be available for European use through 2020:
From domestic production and from imports?From sustainable sources meeting GHG reduction targets?Primary focus on availability, not costs and investments
Biofuel Type Demand Outlook(Scenarios)
Demand Outlook(Scenarios &
parameter variation)Conventional
BiofuelsBio-ethanol from fermentation Up to 8.5 Mtoe Up to 12 Mtoe
FAME (and FAEE) Up to 17.5 Mtoe Up to 19 Mtoe
Advanced Biofuels Bio-ethanol from lignocellulose 0.6 Mtoe 1.3 Mtoe
Hydrogenated Natural Oils (HVO) 3.0 Mtoe 4.5 Mtoe
Biomass to Liquids (BTL) 0.25 Mtoe 0.5 Mtoe
Other Renewables Biogas Up to 0.7 Mtoe Up to 1.0 Mtoe
Electric from renewables Up to 0.5 Mtoe Up to 1.0 Mtoe
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Current situation in Europe
European domestic biofuel production:
Biodiesel (EU27)
Production capacity installed (2009) 20.9 Metric-tonnes(276 plants)
18.4 Mtoe
Actual production (2008) 7.8 Metric-tonnes 6.9 Mtoe
Installed capacity utilized (2008) 37%
Bioethanol (EU27)
Production capacity installed 6.8 M-liters(68 plants)
3.4 Mtoe
Actual production 2.9 M-liters 1.5 Mtoe
Installed capacity utilized 43%
Production capacity under construction
1.8 M-liters(13 plants)
0.9 Mtoe
Source: European Biodiesel Board ( www.ebb-eu.org)European Bioethanol Fuels Association (www.ebio.org)
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook : HVO
HVO capacity (Mt/a) HVO capacity (Mtoe/a)
Neste Oil Porvoo (running) 0.38 0.40
Neste Oil Rotterdam (2010) 0.80 0.84
ENI/UOP, Livorno, IT (2010) 0.35 0.37
Neste Oil Singapore (2011) 0.80 0.84
Galp Energia, Portugal (2015) 0.25 0.26
PREEM Oil (co-processing) 0.1 0.1
Others / co-processing ? ?
Sum (EU sites only) 1.88 1.97Sum 2.68 +? 2.81 + ?
Assumptions used for 2020 Reference case: 3 Mtoe +/- 1.5 Mtoe1. All announced commercial projects are realized2. All plants at 100% capacity (usual assumption is 80%)3. All global HVO production comes to Europe
Neste Oil announced projects account for the largest commercial production of HVODemand for HVO from other regions exists and may change in the future
Sour
ce: J
EC
ana
lysi
sG
loba
l Bio
fuel
sC
ente
r: N
ext G
ener
atio
n B
iofu
els
Faci
litie
s (2
010)
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: FAME Supply
Supply projection for FAME: domestically produced and imported
Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: FAME and HVO
Supply Projection: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
Supply of total HVO and FAME limited by total availability of natural & waste oilsImports are essential to fully utilize higher biodiesel blends
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Conventional Ethanol
Supply projection for ethanol: domestically produced and imported
• Conventional ethanol supply projected to be less than half the volume of FAME supply through 2020 without a major increase in imported ethanol
Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Ethanol
Ethanol demand (max) = highest ethanol demand in all scenariosImports and development of advanced ethanol are key to meeting demand
Supply Projection Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
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9. Biofuel Supply Outlook: Conclusions
Although there are many uncertainties:Ethanol: likely to be available in volumes needed to cover EU demand given lower gasoline volumes and availability of imported ethanolFAME: possibly available in needed volumes with questions regarding domestic development, global demand, and competition for natural and waste oils from HVO productionAdvanced Ethanol: growing global supply but uncertainties remain about European production through 2020 HVO: competition with demand from global aviation sector; competition for natural and waste oils from FAME productionBTL: scale-up to world-class plant size difficult due to technical issues
Other related issues that could affect supply:Sustainability and certification criteria not yet definedImpact of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) on GHG targetsImpact of taxation and tariffs on imports/exports
More information on biogas and renewable electricity can be found in App.12
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10. Summary: Key Conclusions
Scenarios exist that achieve the RED 10% energy target for renewable energy in the transport sector with the given assumptionsNone of these scenarios achieves the minimum 6% GHG target (FQD Art. 7a) with the given assumptions (ILUC * not considered)
Realization of the scenarios depend on :Biofuel supply, especially the availability of sustainable biofuels to Europe CEN specifications, potential vehicle compatibility and pace of introductionCompatibility of the supply and distribution system for all fuel products Non-road contributions to RED-%, especially HVO/BTL use by the aviation sectorEach scenario would need policy measures (including incentives) to enable a smooth transition from today to the “theoretically achievable” projections
Much more technical work is needed to ensure feasibility of these scenarios and compatibility with upcoming Euro 6 emissions limits
Multi-stakeholder coordination and timely decisions will be essentialSeamless transition is important to ensure continued customer confidence
ILUC*: Indirect Land Use Change
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10. Summary: Key ConclusionsVehicles:
Today’s vehicles are E10 (from MY2005) and B7 compatibleCompatibility of vehicles with higher biofuel blends still to be proven and will require time, testing and investment
Fuels:Compatibility of existing logistics infrastructure with higher grades is uncertainFQD Article 7a GHG target was not achieved in the chosen scenariosCoordinated development of CEN specifications is needed for higher gradesHigher blends must be fully utilized in order to approach RED/FQD targets
Biofuels:Significant questions regarding sustainability, pace of development, and importsGiven uncertainties, ethanol/FAME are in the range needed for the RED-% targetPace of non-conventional biofuel production and HVO/BTL uptake by aviation sector are especially important
Other Issues:Attractiveness of different scenarios will vary by Member StateNon-road contributions to RED-% are importantPotential exists for higher biodiesel blends to be used in non-road transport to meet targets but will require time, testing and investmentHigher biodiesel blends could also be used in non-road transport to meet targetsCosts and investments could be significant and were not evaluated in studyMaintaining consumer confidence in fuel and biofuel strategy is critical
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11. JEC Biofuels Programme: Contributors
CONCAWE
José BARONigel ELLIOTT
Benoit ENGELENGerd HAGENOW
Alain HEILBRUNNLiesbeth JANSEN
Baudouin KELECOMMichael LANE
Jean-François LARIVÉSeppo MIKKONEN
Alan REIDJohn ROGERSON
Ken ROSEPirjo SAIKKONEN
Antonella SOPRANZETTIJRC
Covadonga ASTORGA-LLORENSRobert EDWARDS
Laura LONZAVincent MAHIEUGiorgio MARTINI
EUCAR
Renato ANDORFThomas BECKER
Jean-Christophe BEZIATAlessandro CODAIngo DRESCHERAndrea GERINISimon GODWIN
Heinz HASSEckart HEINL
Eberhard HOLDERGünther KLEINSCHEK
Heiko MAASHakan MALMSTADBeatrice PERRIERWillibald PRESTL
Anders RÖJAnn SEGERBORG-FICK
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12. Appendix
1. Web-site Information & Background2. Fleet & Fuel Model3. Road Transport Biofuel Scenarios4. Biofuel Information5. Biofuel Supply6. Non-road Transport Sectors: Renewable Energy Outlook7. Other Studies
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The study report will be available on the WEB:http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/JEC
For questions / inquiries / requests / notesto the JEC Consortium,
please use the centralised mail address:[email protected]
12.1 Web site
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12.1 Background: Industry Perspective on Biofuels Implementation
Both industries strongly support the CEN process as the preferred mechanism to ensure consistent product quality throughout the EUmarketplace as history has shown.
There is considerable debate around what are achievable and sustainable biofuel levels and political pressure to move forward even without EU/CEN fuel specifications.
Fuel manufacturers are required to blend biofuel components to levels needed to satisfy Member State ambitions.
Timing and blending levels are fragmented and uncoordinated between Member StatesNear-term biofuel targets are higher than allowed by existing CEN standards
Vehicle fleets must be compatible with biofuels standards
All stakeholders have an interest in generating relevant and scientifically sound data on these issues and have a demonstrated track record of working together on important problems.
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150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
40 60 80 100 120 140
Gasoline Demand / Mtoe
Die
sel D
eman
d / M
toe
12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Current Projections of Transport Demand
Large variability amongst the different studies
Diesel / Gasoline ratioTotal amountAviation
2005EuroStat
F & F
DG TREN
iTREN-2030
EU Transport Energy Demand: [Mtoe]
2008 EuroStat
2020 iTREN2030
2020 JEC F&F
Road 303 300 285
Diesel 188 155 185
Gasoline 100 105 66
Other: Biofuels, CNG, LPG 15 40 34
Rail 10
Aviation 54 50
Inland navigation 6.5
Other Off-road 20
Total 373.5
W M
1)D
G T
RE
N: "
Eur
opea
n E
nerg
y an
d tra
nspo
rt tre
nds
to 2
030,
Upd
ate
2007
“2)
iTR
EN
2030
, 200
9
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12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Simplified Flow ChartFlow chart applies for all vehicle types in the model: Vij
i = Passenger Cars, Vans, HD, Bussesj = propulsion system (Diesel, Gasoline, CNG, LPG, FFV, xEV)
Circles: Input informationRectangles: Model calculators
FC: fuel consumptionPT: powertrainGHG: greenhouse gas
salesi PT sharej Salesi,j
Stock sizej
stocki,j
New vehicle FCi
stock FCi,j
On-road factori
Fleet mileagej
Fuel demandi,j
Grades / blends
Grade compatibilityj,j
Annual mileage per
typej
Alt. Fuel availability
Renewable content
scrappagei,j
FQD methodology
RED-%RED
methodology
GHG emission
factor by fuel
FQD GHG saving (%)
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12.2 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scrappage function
The scrappage function has been defined to ensure alignment with fleet turn-over in TREMOVE and ANFAC dataIt impacts the number of vehicles that are affected by a loss of a protection grade, e.g. E5 by E10/E20
Update: scrappage / survival of MY2005 cars
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
rem
aini
ng M
Y200
5 po
pula
tion
(200
5 sa
les
= 1)
F&F model update 27APR2010STEERS / TREMOVE
Effect in F&F model: By 2020, all vehicles older than MY2005 have a fleet share of 10% ( ~ TREMOVE / ANFAC)By 2020, gasoline cars older than MY2005 have a gasoline car fleet share of 13% (~17 mil. cars)
Effect in F&F model: By 2020, all vehicles older than MY2000 have a fleet share of 1.5%By 2020, gasoline cars older than MY2000 have a gasoline car fleet share of 2.5%
F&F car fleet 2005 - 2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020
num
ber o
f veh
icle
s [m
il.]
MY2020MY2019MY2018MY2017MY2016MY2015MY2014MY2013MY2012MY2011MY2010MY2009MY2008MY2007MY2006MY2005MY2004MY2003MY2002MY2001MY2000MY1999 + older
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12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Recession impact on HD sales
Considers -20% to -50% sales changes 2008 to 2009Assumes that recovery back to 2008 sales levels takes until 2013
HD sales (with crisis impact)
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
mil/
a
B&C>32t16t-32t7.5t-16t3.5t-7.5t
HD sales (TREMOVE base)
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
mil/
a
Q1/06 =100 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010LCV upto 3.5t 100 105 106 62 68HD 3.5t-16t 100 96 112 69 60HD >16t 100 110 125 69 47HD Bus+coach 100 95 139 91 103
source: ACEA: New Commercial vehicle registrations, Dec 2009
Vehicle type 2008 2009 YoY changeLCV upto 3.5t 2,039,557 1,421,770 -30.3%HD 3.5t-16t 121,414 81,270 -33.1%HD 16t and over 316,030 164,645 -47.9%HD Bus+coach 48,835 39,311 -19.5%
Sum 2,525,836 1,706,996 -32.4%
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.2 Fleet & Fuel Model: Actions contributing 1% to the RED-%
Biofuels:Impact toAction RED
stepfuel tech veh. tech
Remark
Add 2.9 Mtoe HVO to diesel pool 1% yes no 2-3 Mtoe announced capacities (~3 Mtoe assumed by Concawe) in 2020
Add 1.5 Mtoe BTL to diesel pool 1% yes no ~0.25 Mtoe announced capacities in 2020
E10 to E16 1% yes yes Vehicle Capability impacted
B7 to B8.4 1% Limited yes Vehicle Capability impacted
Alternative Vehicles:Car CNGV by 2020: 11% sales, 6% stock (~15 mil.) 1% yes Limited 20% biogas in CNG (1/2 is advanced biogas)
Car FFV by 2020: 5% sales, 2.7% stock (~7.5 mil.) 1% yes Limited 90% E85 take rate
Car EV by 2020: 13% sales, 3% stock (~8 mil.) 1% no yes 100% renewable electricity / 1/3 BEV, 2/3 PHEV (90% el. drive)
HD16t-32t E95 vehicles: ~20% sales 1% yes yes 100% E95 take rate. Vehicle capability? 3Mtoe E95 available?
Aviation: 4% to 5% bio-kerosene in kerosene 1% yes No First gen. kerosene by 2020
Rail: Approx. 45% renewable electricity 1% no No 45% share is slightly above expected 2020 EU grid average renew. target
For comparison: Other transport sectors
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 2 (E20, B7) resultsRoad fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 64Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 117Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 186Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,9CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 12,80HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 7,09EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 6,45EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,2%Sum RED-% 10,3%
FQD GHG saving -4,7%
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.9
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.3%) with given assumptions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B7, E20
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 3 (B10, E10) resultsRoad fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 116Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 184Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 14,61HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 5,32EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 4,68EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,2%Sum RED-% 10,3%
FQD GHG saving -4,7%
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.8
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.3%) with given assumptions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B10, E10
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 4 (B10, E20) resultsRoad fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 64Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 116Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 184Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,9CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 14,61HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 7,09EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 6,45EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,8%Sum RED-% 10,9%
FQD GHG saving -5,1%
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases, Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.9
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Additional 1.8 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.9%) with given assumptions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B10, E20
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 5 (E10, B7, B15H) results
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.8
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 2.6 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.5%) with given assumptions
Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 115Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 184Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 15,35HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 5,32EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 4,68EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,5%Sum RED-% 10,5%
FQD GHG saving -4,9%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B7, B15H, E10
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
06 July 2010
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12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 6 (E20, B7, B10H) results
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases, Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.9
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.8 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Additional 1.0 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.6%) with given assumptions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B7, B10H, E20
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 64Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 69Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 116Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 185Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,9CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,90 13,75HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,47 7,09EtOH conv. 0,72 2,47 6,45EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,5%Sum RED-% 10,6%
FQD GHG saving -4,9%
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 7 (E10, E85, B7) results
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases, Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.8
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.9 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Less 0.1 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.3%) with given assumptions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B7, E10, E85
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 68Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 117Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 185Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,88 12,70HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,83 7,23EtOH conv. 0,72 2,83 6,59EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,2%Sum RED-% 10,3%
FQD GHG saving -4,7%
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
06 July 2010
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12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 8 (E20, E85, B7) results
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B7, E20, E85
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 64Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 68Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 117Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 185Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,9CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,88 12,70HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,83 8,98EtOH conv. 0,72 2,83 8,34EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,8%Sum RED-% 10,9%
FQD GHG saving -5,0%
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases, Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.9
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 3.7 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Less 0.1 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.9%) with given assumptions
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 ‘Fleet & Fuels’ Model: Scenario 9 (E10, E85, B7, B10H) results
Results:Fossil demand changes:
Gasoline demand decreases, Diesel demand increasesDiesel/gasoline ratio increases from 2.0 to 2.8
Large biofuel volumes will be neededAdditional 1.9 Mtoe Ethanol over scenario 1 in 2020Additional 0.8 Mtoe FAME over scenario 1 in 2020
Increasing demand for CNG & CBGRED target reached (10.6%) with given assumptions0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 B7, B10H, E10, E85
Mto
e/a
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
% R
ED
FAME Total EthanolRED: roadRED: all sectors
Road fuel (Mtoe) 2005 2010 2020Fossil Gasoline to car 118 87 66Fossil Diesel to car 58 61 68Fossil Diesel to HD 123 114 116Sum fossil Diesel 181 175 184Diesel to Gasoline ratio (road only) 1,5 2,0 2,8CNG 0,42 0,85 3,26CBG 0,82LPG 4,17 3,32 3,24FAME 1,50 11,88 13,65HVO 0,00 1,00 3,00BTL 0,00 0,00 0,25DME 0,00 0,00 0,09Total Ethanol 0,72 2,83 7,23EtOH conv. 0,72 2,83 6,59EtOH Adv. 0,00 0,00 0,64"Fossil" Electricity 0,00 0,00 0,28Renewable Electricity 0,15Sum road fuel demand 306 281 281
RED ContributionsNon-road 1,0%Road 9,6%Sum RED-% 10,6%
FQD GHG saving -4,9%
Fuel demand in road transport sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2020
Fuel
dem
and
by fu
el ty
pe [M
toe]
Electricity
Biofuel
LPG
CNG
Diesel to HD
Diesel to LD
Gasoline
Alternative fuel demand in road transport
0
4
8
12
16
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mto
e/a
CNG
LPG
FAME
HVO
BTL
EtOH conv.
EtOH adv.
Electricity
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.3 RED Implementation Scenarios: Scenario Summary
Scenario1
( Ref ) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Blends in 2020
E5, E10,
B7
E10, E20,
B7
E5, E10,
B7, B10
E10, E20,
B7, B10
E5, E10,
B7, B15 (HD)
E10, E20,
B7, B10 (HD)
E5, E10, E85,
(FFV ~5% sales ‘20)
B7
E10, E20,E85,
(FFV ~5% sales ‘20)
B7
E5, E10, E85,(FFV ~5% sales ‘20)
B7, B10 (HD)
1st Gen Biofuels 18.5 Mtoe 20.3 Mtoe 20.3 Mtoe 22.1 Mtoe 21.0 Mtoe 21.2 Mtoe 18.5 Mtoe 20.2 Mtoe 21.2 Mtoe
Adv. Biofuels
HVO, BTL, Adv. Ethanol
4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 Mtoe 4.8 MtoeRoad
Alt. vehicles LD: CNGV,
EV, FFV
HD: CNGV, E95V, DMEV
1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe 3.6 Mtoe 3.6 Mtoe 3.6 Mtoe
Renew. Electricity 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe 2.5 Mtoe
RailB7 in Diesel 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe 0.2 Mtoe
Water B7 in Diesel 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe 0.4 Mtoe
Air -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/- -/-
Sum renewable 28.1 Mtoe 29.8 Mtoe 29.9 Mtoe 31.7 Mtoe 30.6 Mtoe 30.8 Mtoe 29.9 Mtoe 31.6 Mtoe 30.8 MtoeDenominator (road & rail) according to RED
290.9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
290,9 Mtoe
290.9 Mtoe
RED-% 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.9% 10.5% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 10.6%
Not
e: ro
undi
ng m
ight
lead
to il
logi
c su
ms
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.4 Biofuel Information: Conversion FactorsTonne of Oil Equivalent (toe):
A unit of energy corresponding to the amount of energy released by burning 1 tonne of crude oilBecause different crude oils have different calorific values, the exact value of one toe is defined by conventionDifferent organizations have adopted slightly different valuesThis study has adopted a value of 41.85 PetaJoules (PJ)
Barrel of Oil Equivalent (boe):Approximately 0.146 toe (i.e. there are approximately 6.841 boe in a toe)
Sou
rce:
Wik
iped
ia a
nd s
tudy
mod
el
1 Mt of: Equals how many PJs of energy?
Equals how many Mtoe?
Petrol (2010) 43.2 1.032Ethanol 26.8 0.640
Diesel (2010) 43.1 1.030FAME 36.8 0.879HVO 44.0 1.051
BTL Diesel 44.0 1.051CNG 45.1 1.078LPG 46.0 1.100
Electricity (1 TW-h) 3.6 0.086
06 July 2010
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Current European CEN Specifications:For pure bio-components:
Ethanol: EN15376 (for blending up to 5% in gasoline)Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME): EN14214
For gasoline: 5% v/v (E5) ethanol and 2.7% oxygen (EN228)For diesel: 7% v/v (B7) FAME in diesel fuel (EN590)Generally no limits on addition of 2nd Generation renewable diesel
Hydrogenated vegetable oils (HVO) and animal fatsBiomass-to-Liquids (BTL)
Member State Initiatives:France: E10 (2009); B7 (2008) and B30 for captive fleetsGermany: B7 plus 3% renewable diesel (2008), B100 for specially adapted vehiclesOther Countries:
B20 (Poland) and B30 (Czech Republic) for captive fleetsE85 in Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden
Standardization of high quality fuels containing bio-components is essential to ensure trouble-free performance in the current/future fleet
12.4 Biofuel Information: Biofuel Blends in EU27
06 July 2010
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12.4 Biofuel Information: Pace of Bio-component Developments
Defined ByFeedstock Utilisation
Defined ByTechnology Maturity
“1st
Generation”Ethanol from
sugar cane, grains, sugar beets, etc.
FAME from:vegetable oilsanimal, waste oils
Widely available commercial technology:FermentationEtherificationEsterification
“2nd
Generation”Ethanol from
biomassDi-Methyl Ether
(DME) from black liquor
Biomass to LiquidsHydrogenated oilsFAME from:
non-edible seeds (jatropha, karanja)
new seed oils (cuphea, crambe, cotton seed)
Being implemented orat pilot plant stage:
Gasification/synthesisHydrotreatingHydrogenationLignocellulose process
“3rd
Generation”Biogas from
wasteBiohydrogen
Biodiesel from algae At research stage:PyrolysisHydrothermal upgrade
Defined ByFeedstock Utilisation
Defined ByTechnology Maturity
“1st
Generation”Ethanol from
sugar cane, grains, sugar beets, etc.
FAME from:vegetable oilsanimal, waste oils
Widely available commercial technology:FermentationEtherificationEsterification
“2nd
Generation”Ethanol from
biomassDi-Methyl Ether
(DME) from black liquor
Biomass to LiquidsHydrogenated oilsFAME from:
non-edible seeds (jatropha, karanja)
new seed oils (cuphea, crambe, cotton seed)
Being implemented orat pilot plant stage:
Gasification/synthesisHydrotreatingHydrogenationLignocellulose process
“3rd
Generation”Biogas from
wasteBiohydrogen
Biodiesel from algae At research stage:PyrolysisHydrothermal upgrade
06 July 2010
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Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement
12.5 Biofuel Supply: Primary References
Wood Mackenzie: Conventional Biofuels“Food and Fuel: The Outlook for Biofuels to 2020”Released July, 2009
Global Biofuels Center: Advanced Biofuels“Special Report: Status of Next Generation Biofuels Facilities”Released April, 2010
Plus publicly available reports and websites
Focus has been on availability of different biofuel types through 2020, not on biofuel costs
06 July 2010
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Outlook for Biofuels to 2020Wood Mackenzie partnered with Céleres in 2008-9 to merge oil product demand data with agricultural supply and trade data
Céleres is a Brazilian-based consulting company focused on global agribusinessThe Wood Mackenzie-Céleres Outlook has been used as a primary source in this study to evaluate likely biofuel supply volumes through 2020 because:
Recent update on a 2008 comprehensive study from a credible and independent sourcePublicly available (upon purchase)
Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
• Biofuel demand initially derived from Wood Mackenize’s road transport fuel demand, incentives to promote biofuels, and constraints on biofuel demand
• Demand output provided as input to Céleres agricultural model
• Demand for crops for food, fuel, and other uses included
• Assumptions included for crop yields and available land area
• Céleres model evaluated supply and demand for major crop types
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Sources: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)Global Biofuels Center ‘Next Generation Facilities’ (2010)
12.5 Biofuel Supply: Key Messages
Significant growth in biofuels consumption over the coming decade driven by ambitious renewable fuels policies in spite of concerns regarding sustainability.
Conventional Biofuels:Surplus of biodiesel conversion capacity will persist over the long-term, putting pressure on biodiesel producer margins.Additional ethanol capacity will be required to meet demand within a few years.Biofuels will remain overwhelmingly reliant on food crops as feedstocks which will continue to present risks in terms of public opinion and pricing.Biofuel demand will remain reliant on subsidies or mandates due to their high cost of production. An exception will be Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, which could become increasingly attractive as a relatively cheap liquid fuel in export markets. Latin America production will continue to grow with exports of biofuels and feedstock crops increasing rapidly.
Advanced Biofuels:Most advanced technology is renewable diesel, particularly hydrogenation of
vegetable oil, even though LC ethanol has more announced pilot/demo facilities.Although most announced projects indicate a 2010 or 2011 production timeline, commercial operations are being delayed.Asia is the region with the most next generation biofuels capacity while the U.S. has the most facilities.Next generation biofuels demand cannot be met in the near term.
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: FAME Feedstocks
Rapeseed and soybean dominate vegetable oils used for domestic FAME productionSignificant volumes of jatropha, algae, and BTL not expected through 2020
Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: EtOH Feedstocks
Lignocellulose ethanol not expected to provide significant volumes of domestically produced ethanol by 2020
Source: Wood Mackenzie ‘Global Biofuels Outlook’ (2009)
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Global biodiesel production
Global Biodiesel production capacity and utilisation, 2008
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Global ethanol production
Global Ethanol production capacity and utilisation, 2008
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12.5 Biofuel Supply
Major global Biodiesel trade flows
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12.5 Biofuel Supply
Major global Ethanol trade flows
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: FAME and HVO from Waste Oils
Used cooking oils and animal fats are the main resourcesIt has been estimated that potentially available quantities are 0.95 Mtoe and 2.25 Mtoe respectivelyTotal volume not expected to grow dramatically in the coming decadeIt is assumed that about 1/3 of the available resource, or 1 Mtoe is used in transport in 2020Biofuels from this resource count double, i.e. 2 Mtoe, towards the 10% RED targetSource: information received from European Commission’s DG ENER
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Biogas
Current supply picture for biogas supply in 2020:2007 EU production of biogas: 5.9 Mtoe, sources: landfill gas (~50%), sewage sludge (~15% ) , "gas, others" (incl. energy crops) (~35%); applications: electricity generation, injection in grid (then fuel; domestic, industrial application)2020 AEBIOM "realistic“ outlook: ~40 Mtoe2020 theoretical potential: 166 Mtoe (IE Leipzig 2007; see AEBIOM publ., page 16)
Biogas availability does not limit the modelled demand in the F&F model (~4Mtoe). However, both CNG and biogas road fuel potential varies by EU member states (in terms of natural gas infrastructure, CNG filling stations, biogas availability, biogas sources, etc.)
Sources:http://www.aebiom.org/?p=231#more-231http://www.eurobserv-er.org/pdf/baro186_a.pdfhttp://www.ngvaeurope.eu/downloads/statistics/20100406/1-ngvs-and-stations-in-europe-dec-2009-update.xls
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12.5 Biofuel Supply: Renewable ElectricityJRC Report (March 2009) http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/pdf/RE%20Snapshots%202009.pdf
35 to 40% of the total electricity (3,200 – 3,500 TWh) has to come from Renewable Energy Sources in 2020 to meet the [20-20-20] target.In 2005 14% (460 TWh) of the Gross Electricity Generation (3,300 TWh) came from Renewable Energy sources.
European Renewable Energy Council Roadmap to 2020 (2008) http://www.erec.org/fileadmin/erec_docs/Documents/Publications/Renewable_Energy_Technology_Roadmap.pdf
Depending on the development of the total electricity generation, renewable energies will be able to contribute between 33% and 40% to total electricity production. Assuming that the EU will fulfill its ambitious energy efficiency roadmap, a share of over 40% of renewables in electricity production by 2020 is realistic.
Energy transport and environment indicators (2009 edition) http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-DK-09-001/EN/KS-DK-09-001-EN.PDF
Roadmap 2050 (April 2010) http://www.roadmap2050.euBy 2020 EU reaches the production of electricity from RES roughly implied by the 2020 targets (34%). In the baseline, RES penetration in electricity by 2020 reaches the level forecasted in the baseline scenario of the IEA WEO 2009 of 29%.
100% renewable electricity (March 2010) (PWC) http://www.supersmartgrid.net/2010/03/policy-roadmap-to-2050-a-100-renewable-electricity-supply-for-europe-and-north-africa-is-possible/
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12.6 Non-road Transport Sectors: Renewable Energy Outlook
The following sources have been used to estimate the renewable energy demand in 2020 for the sector rail:
Deutsche Bahn strives to increase renewable electricity from 16% to 30% by 2020 (Jan. 2010)
http://www.co2-handel.de/article341_13418.html
SNCF tests B30, B100http://www.francerailpass.com/frp/Eco-Mobilityhttp://www.sncf.com/resources/en_EN/medias/MD0305_20070803/template/RF/2006/rf2006.pdf
UK’s renewable energy strategy: Biofuels & renewable electricity for rail
http://www.opinionsuite.com/berr/download?filename=uk-renewable-energy-strategy-consultation-document
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12.6 Non-road Transport Sectors: Renewable Energy Outlook
The following sources have been used to estimate the renewable energy demand in 2020 for inland navigation:
“Inland Navigation Europe”:Uptake road quality diesel fuel with 10ppm Sulfur: as of 2011 it will be for the entire fleet available – bunkering stations are obliged to make it available.This means a small % could be biofuel.Potential for hybridisation, fuel cells and full electric for small vessels
GREENPEACE: Biodiesel in inland navigation could ease environmental burden
http://www.greenpeace.de/themen/sonstige_themen/feinstaub/artikel/biodiesel_mogelpackung_auf_kosten_der_umwelt/
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12.6 Non-road Transport Sectors: Renewable Energy Outlook
The following sources have been used to estimate the renewable energy demand in 2020 for aviation:
IATA has set a target of using 10% alternative fuels by 2017 together with an average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year from 2009 to 2020 building on the Technology Roadmap of May 2009 taking into account the Strategic Research Agenda produced by ACARE (air transport technology platform)
http://www.iata.org/SiteCollectionDocuments/AviationClimateChange_PathwayTo2020_email.pdfhttp://www.iata.org/SiteCollectionDocuments/Documents/Technology_Roadmap_May2009.pdf
British Airways has set out plans to build a biofuel production facility in London, where biogas will be produced from waste and then converted into synthetic kerosene via the Fischer Tropsch method. Announced capacity by 2014: 16 mil imperial gallons/a -> 73 mil. L/a -> 0.06Mtoe/a
http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2257855/pioneers-east-london-waste-jet
Several test flight with and activities around biofuelsKLM, North Sea Petroleum, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF): "join forces to ensure that we
quickly gain access to a continuous supply of biofuel" Air New Zealand's Boeing 747-400 powered by Rolls-Royce turbines: HVO based on JatrophaContinental Airlines, Boeing, GE Aviation/CFM International, Honeywell: Second gen biofuels
derived from algae and Jatropha plants
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12.7 Other Studies: DG TREN
DG TREN: "European Energy and transport trends to 2030, Update 2007“1) 2005 EuroStat statistics2) 2020 baseline scenario
Energy demand EU-27+2 Transport
2005 1)
[Mtoe]2020 2)
[Mtoe]Road 306.5 350
Rail 9.5 10
Aviation 52.4 73
Inland navigation 6.7 6
Sum 375.2 439
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12.7 Other Studies: iTREN2030
New “Integrated Scenario”:Lower energy demand for road transportNo major changes in the other sectors
iTREN-2030 Final Conference, Oct. 21st 2009http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi/projects/itren-2030/
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12.7 Other Studies: iTREN2030
Decrease of diesel and gasoline consumptionIncrease of kerosene, biofuels, gas and electricity
iTREN-2030 Final Conference, Oct. 21st 2009http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi/projects/itren-2030/
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12.7 Other Studies: Wood Mackenzie (2009)
Road fuel demand continuing steady shift from gasoline to dieselJet/kero demand expected to increaseRatio of diesel to gasoline continuing to grow through decade
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Tota
l die
sel /
gaso
line
Dem
and
Mt/a
Gasoline Jet/Kero On-road Diesel Of f -road Diesel (incl. rail)
Source: IEA/ Wood Mackenzie 2009
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12.7 Other Studies: Wood Mackenzie (2009)
Europe is short on diesel production and long on gasoline providing a market opportunity for biodiesel blendstocks
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
LPG NaphthaGasolineJet/Kero Diesel Gasoil LSFO HSFO
Bal
ance
s (M
t/a)
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025
Surplus
Deficit
Greater Europe
Source: Wood Mackenzie (2009)