Investment in the Chilean mining
industry
Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
DEPP 05/2018
Intellectual Property Register © N° 295.314
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
I
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Executive Summary
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
II
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Executive Summary
For private companies and the government, it is important to have a projection of the future development of mining activity in the country, based on information about investment over the next ten years, including not only copper but also gold, silver, iron, lithium and industrial minerals. For over 12 years, this has, therefore, been a fundamental line of work of the Chilean Copper Commission (COCHILCO).
In its 2018 version, this survey of mining investment considers projects with start-up dates in the decade from 2018 to 2027 of which there are 44, valued at a total of US$65,747 million.
This figure is the result of adjustments to reflect the start-up in 2017 of seven initiatives out of the 47 considered in the previous survey, an investment reduction of US$1,948 million due to CAPEX optimizations in some projects, the exit from the portfolio of two industrial minerals projects that are seeking to improve their engineering and the entry of six new projects valued at US$5,902 million. These cautious changes in mining investment are an unequivocal signal of a year of stabilization in the industry, with a view to growing in the coming years in line with substantial improvements in world market conditions and our country’s economic development.
2017 portfolio vs. 2018 portfolio
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
This is best seen when comparing projects with a higher probability of materialization within the
expected timeframe and those where this probability is lower. The first group, which corresponds
to base and probable initiatives, totals US$36,257 million, with 25 projects that represent 55.1% of
the total portfolio.
64,85647 projects
- 7762 projects
- 2,2867 projects
- 1,9487 projects
+5,9026 projects
65,74744 projects
0,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2017 portfolio Restructured Start operation Investmentadjust.
New projects 2018 PORTFOLIO
MUS$
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
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Comisión Chilena del Cobre
The second group of possible and potential projects, which are more prone to be affected by
changes in market conditions, corresponds to 19 initiatives valued at US$29,490 million and
represents 44.9% of the total portfolio.
Out of six new projects incorporated this year, three are in copper mining: the Collahuasi
Complementary Installations 170 ktpd project for US$302 million; the Zaldívar Operational
Continuity project for US$100 million; and the NuevaUnión Phases II and III projects for US$3,700
million. The others are the Salares Norte gold project of Gold Fields, valued at US$1,000 million, and
two lithium projects: SQM Salar’s brownfield Lithium Carbonate Expansion to 180 ktpy project for
US$450 million (which would complement the Salar del Carmen Expansion project included in the
2017 portfolio) and Maricunga Salts Production, a greenfield project by SIMCO SpA, a company in
the Errázuriz Group, for US$350 million.
Copper mining continues to predominate in the 2018 portfolio, with 32 projects that, at US$59,103
million, account for 89.9% of the total investment. Although this is down on the 2017 portfolio (36
projects for US$59,235 million), the contribution that these projects would make in terms of output
is larger than in 2017 and, indeed, the largest in the last three years, following the sharp drop in
investment seen in 2014.
Historical copper portfolios and their contribution to output
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Along with copper, investment in lithium stands out this year, with four projects valued at US$1,280
million and representing 1.9% of the portfolio.
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Investment in copper Contribution to copper output
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
IV
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Contents
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027
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Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... II
Contents ............................................................................................................................................ V
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. VIII
List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. VIII
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 2
1. Investment in the Chilean mining industry, 2018-2027 ............................................................. 4
1.1. Conditionality of investment.............................................................................................. 5
1.1.2. Indirect determinants of conditionality ................................................................... 7
1.2. Investment by region ......................................................................................................... 8
1.3. Origin of investment ........................................................................................................ 12
2. Estimate of annual distribution of investment in portfolio projects ........................................ 15
2.1. Distribution of investment in copper mining ................................................................... 16
2.2. Distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals ...................................... 17
3.1. Contribution to copper output ......................................................................................... 20
3.2. Contribution to output of molybdenum, gold, silver and iron .......................................... 21
3.3. Contribution to output of lithium and other industrial minerals ...................................... 22
4. Comparison of mining investment portfolios to 2018 ................................................................. 24
4.1. Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios ......................................................................... 24
4.2. Historical comparison of portfolios .................................................................................. 29
5. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 34
Origin of investment ........................................................................................................ 34
Purpose of investment ..................................................................................................... 34
Region of Chile ................................................................................................................. 35
Maximum contribution to output .................................................................................... 35
Conditionality of investment............................................................................................ 36
APPENDIX 1: Methodology .............................................................................................................. 38
1. Coverage .................................................................................................................................. 38
2. Attributes of projects and condition of materialization .......................................................... 38
2.1. Condition of materialization ............................................................................................ 38
2.2. Type of project ................................................................................................................. 39
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2.3. Stage of advance .............................................................................................................. 40
2.4. Environmental permits (SEA) ........................................................................................... 40
2.5. Start-up date .................................................................................................................... 40
3. Investment by Codelco and sources of information ................................................................ 41
4. Private-sector investment and sources of information ........................................................... 42
5. Methodological criteria for estimating start-up date .............................................................. 42
APPENDIX 2: Description of investment projects in copper mining ................................................ 44
1. State copper mining ................................................................................................................ 44
1.1. Codelco structural projects - www.codelco.cl .................................................................. 44
2. Large-scale private copper mining sector ................................................................................ 48
2.1. Antofagasta Minerals - www.antofagasta.co.uk .............................................................. 48
2.2. BHP - www.bhp.com ........................................................................................................ 50
2.3. Capstone Mining - www.capstonemining.com ................................................................ 51
2.4. Doña Inés de Collahuasi - www.collahuasi.cl ................................................................... 52
2.5. Freeport McMoRan - www.fcx.com ................................................................................. 53
2.6. Goldcorp / Teck - www.nuevaunion.cl ............................................................................. 54
2.7. KGHM - www.sgscm.cl ..................................................................................................... 55
2.8. Lundin Mining - www.sgscm.cl ........................................................................................ 56
2.9. Mantos Copper ................................................................................................................ 57
2.10. Teck - www.teck.com .......................................................................................... 58
3. Medium-scale copper mining sector ....................................................................................... 59
3.1. Central Asia Metals PLC - www.centralasiametals.com ................................................... 59
3.2. COPEC - www.empresascopec.cl ..................................................................................... 60
3.3. Hot Chili - www.hotchili.net.au ........................................................................................ 61
3.4. Pucobre - www.pucobre.cl ............................................................................................... 61
4. Metallurgical plants ................................................................................................................. 62
4.1. Ecometales - www.ecometales.cl .................................................................................... 62
4.2. ENAMI – www.enami.cl ................................................................................................... 63
4.3. Molymet – www.molymet.cl ........................................................................................... 64
APPENDIX 3: Description of investment projects in gold and silver mining .................................... 65
1. Rio2 Limited - www.rio2.com .................................................................................................. 65
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2. Gold Fields – www.goldfields.com........................................................................................... 66
3. Kingsgate Consolidate Ltd. - www.kingsgate.com.au .............................................................. 67
4. Kinross - www.kinross.com ..................................................................................................... 68
APPENDIX 4: Description of investment projects in iron mining ..................................................... 69
1. Admiralty Resources ................................................................................................................ 69
2. Andes Iron - www.conocedominga.cl ...................................................................................... 70
APPENDIX 5: Description of investment projects in industrial minerals .......................................... 71
1. Albemarle ................................................................................................................................ 71
2. SQM S.A. - www.sqm.cl ........................................................................................................... 72
3. SIMCO SpA ............................................................................................................................... 75
APPENDIX 6: Units of measurement and abbreviations .................................................................. 76
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by condition ..................................................... 5
Figure 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by probability of materialization ...................... 6
Figure 3: Investment portfolio by region, copper mining and other mining ...................................... 9
Figure 4: Investment portfolio by region and condition of projects ................................................. 10
Figure 5: Investment portfolio by country of origin (MMUS$ and %) .............................................. 12
Figure 6: Annualized investment, materialized and pending, by type of mining .............................. 15
Figure 7: 2017 portfolio vs. 2018 portfolio ....................................................................................... 25
Figure 8: Investment portfolios surveyed by COCHILCO, 2006-2018 ............................................... 29
Figure 9: Projects starting operation between 2006 and 2017 ........................................................ 30
Figure 10: New projects entering the portfolio between 2007 and 2018 ........................................ 30
Figure 11: Historical copper portfolios and their contribution to output ......................................... 31
Figure 12: Capital intensity per copper project vs. capital intensity per ton of fine Cu contributed 31
List of Tables
Table 1: Portfolio of mining projects in Chile, 2018-2027 .................................................................. 4
Table 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by sector and condition of projects................... 5
Table 3: Investment portfolio by determinants of conditionality....................................................... 7
Table 4: Investment portfolio by type of project and end product .................................................... 8
Table 5: Investment in copper mining by region and condition of projects ..................................... 11
Table 6: Investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals by region and condition of projects ....... 12
Table 7: Investment in copper mining by country of origin and condition (MMUS$) ...................... 13
Table 8: Investment in gold, iron lithium and industrial minerals by country of origin and condition
(MMUS$) .......................................................................................................................................... 13
Table 9: Annualized mining investment in Chile, 2018-2027, by probability of materialization and
sector ............................................................................................................................................... 16
Table 10: Annual distribution of investment in copper mining by condition of projects (MMUS$) . 17
Table 11: Annual distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals by condition of
projects (MMUS$) ............................................................................................................................ 18
Table 12: Copper projects and maximum output ............................................................................. 20
Table 13: Projects contributing to molybdenum, gold, silver and iron output by 2028 ................... 21
Table 14: Projects contributing to output of lithium and other industrial minerals ......................... 22
Table 15: Principal changes in investment portfolio, 2018 vs. 2017 ................................................ 26
Table 16: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by condition of projects ................................... 26
Table 17: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by mining sector .............................................. 26
Table 18: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by mining sector and condition of projects ..... 27
Table 19: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by region.......................................................... 28
Table 20: Conditions of materialization of a project ........................................................................ 39
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018 -2027 1
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Introduction
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018 -2027 2
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Introduction
This study, which corresponds to an update of the annual report on investment in the Chilean mining
industry over the next decade, seeks to provide relevant information about the mining projects that
currently exist in Chile, together with a new forecast for investment during the next decade, based
on information disclosed by the projects’ owners.
The structure of the study is as follows:
a) Analysis of the investment required for the portfolio of projects in copper mining, gold and
silver mining, iron mining and some industrial minerals, with respect to the conditionality of
the initiatives and their purpose, the regional distribution of the investment and its country of
origin. A description of each of the projects can be found in Appendix 2 (copper mining),
Appendix 3 (gold and silver mining) and Appendix 4 (industrial minerals: lithium, iodine,
nitrates, potassium salts and titanium oxide).
b) An estimate of the investment flow represented by the portfolio, indicating the amounts
already invested, the annualized flow for the next five years and the amount to be invested
subsequently. This forecast is, however, only a reference and does not represent a commitment
on the part of the projects’ owners.
c) An estimate of the portfolio’s maximum contribution to output of copper, molybdenum,
gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals. A more detailed analysis of the outlook for copper
production is part of a different line of work of COCHILCO.
d) A comparison of the changes between the present and previous portfolios with respect to
the amount of investment, number of projects, conditionality of the projects, purpose of the
investment and the regional distribution of projects. In addition, earlier surveys and their
evolution to date are reviewed as regards the materialization of the projects, the new projects
that entered each portfolio and their relation with the price of copper, the main commodity
considered here.
Finally, the study sets out the main conclusions that can be drawn from the information presented.
It should be noted that a project’s inclusion in the portfolio, after fulfilling the necessary conditions,
is not a guarantee of its materialization on the terms and in the timeframe planned by the company,
but does show the interest of the state and the large and medium-scale private mining sectors in
our geological resources, our mining market and our long-term mining policy.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 3
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Chapter 1:
Investment in the Chilean mining industry
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 4
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
1. Investment in the Chilean mining industry, 2018-2027
This section provides general information about the projects considered in the 2018-2027 portfolio.
It comprises 44 initiatives valued at US$65,747 million as shown in Table 1, which also includes the
amount of the investment, its conditionality, its purpose and the region in which it would be located,
among other information.
Table 1: Portfolio of mining projects in Chile, 2018-2027
Start-up date
Project Operator Mining sector
Region Type of project
Condition Stage of advance
Environ. permits
Investment (MMUS$)
2018-2022 OTHER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS Codelco Chile State - Cu Several Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 2,907 2018-2022 FURE PROJECTS Codelco Chile Met. plants Several Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 1,972 2018-2022 TAILINGS DAMS Codelco Chile State - Cu Several Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 1,380 2018-2022 INFORMATION PROJECTS Codelco Chile State - Cu Several New POSSIBLE Feasibility N/A 1,375
2018 MOLYNOR EXPANSION Molynor Met. plants Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 240 2018 CANDELARIA 2030 CCM Candelaria Large min. - Cu Atacama Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 460
2019 MARIPOSA Admiralty Minerals Chile PTY LTD Iron Atacama New BASE Implementation EIA approved 70 2019 LA NEGRA PLANT EXPANSION - PHASE 3 Rockwood Litio Ltda. Lithium Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 300 2019 PEDRO DE VALDIVIA DIS. & REF. PLANT SQM Nitratos S.A. Ind. min. Antofagasta Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 140 2019 CHUQUICAMATA SUBTERRÁNEA Codelco Chuquicamata Div. State - Cu Antofagasta Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 5,554 2019 ORCOMA SQM Ind. min. Tarapacá New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 230 2019 COLLAHUASI COMPL. INST. 170 KTPD Doña Inés de Collahuasi Large min. - Cu Tarapacá Expansion PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 302 2019 PLAYA VERDE Copper Bay Med. min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA submitted 95
2020 SALAR DEL CARMEN EXPANSION SQM Salar S.A. Lithium Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 180 2020 SPENCE GROWTH OPTION Pampa Norte Large min. - Cu Antofagasta New BASE Implementation EIA approved 3,300 2020 MANTOS BLANCOS CONC. DE-BOTTLE Mantos Copper Large min. - Cu Antofagasta Expansion BASE Implementation EIA approved 181 2022 DIEGO DE ALMAGRO CM Sierra Norte S.A. Med. min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 597 2020 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXPAN. PHASE I Minera Los Pelambres Large min. - Cu Coquimbo Expansion PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 1,050 2020 CONCENTRATE LEACHING Ecometales Limited Met. plants Antofagasta New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 370 2020 SALARES NORTE Gold Fields Salares Norte SpA Gold Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 1,000 2020 MARICUNGA SALTS PRODUCTION SIMCO SpA Lithium Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 350
2021 MINE-PLANT TRANSPORT Codelco Andina Div. State - Cu Valparaíso Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 1,321 2021 MANTOVERDE DEVELOPMENT Mantos Copper Large min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 832 2021 NUEVA ESPERANZA – ARQUEROS Laguna Resources Chile Gold Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 250 2021 CERRO MARICUNGA Atacama Pacific Gold Gold Atacama New POSSIBLE Feasibility Without EIA 587 2021 RAJO INCA Codelco Salvador Div. State - Cu Atacama Expansion POTENTIAL Prefeasibility Without EIA 817 2021 PRODUCTORA SM El Águila Ltda. Med. min. - Cu Atacama New POTENTIAL Prefeasibility Without EIA 725
2022 CENTINELA DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT (*) Minera Centinela Large min. - Cu Antofagasta New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 4,350 2022 ZALDÍVAR OPERATIONAL CONTINUITY CM Zaldívar SpA Large min. - Cu Antofagasta Replacement PROBABLE Feasibility EIA submitted 100 2022 SANTO DOMINGO Santo Domingo SCM Large min. - Cu Atacama New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 1,700 2022 QUEBRADA BLANCA HYPOGENE CM Teck Quebrada Blanca Large min. - Cu Tarapacá New PROBABLE Feasibility EIA approved 4,700 2022 LITHIUM CARBONATE EXP. 180 KTPY SQM Salar S.A. Lithium Antofagasta Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA submitted 450 2022 LA COIPA PHASE 7 Kinross Minera Chile Ltda. Gold Atacama Replacement POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 200 2022 SIERRA GORDA EXPANSION 230 KTPD Sierra Gorda SCM Large min. - Cu Antofagasta Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 2,000 2022 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXP. PHASE II Minera Los Pelambres Large min. - Cu Coquimbo Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility Without EIA 500 2022 EL ESPINO Pucobre Med. min. - Cu Coquimbo New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 624 2022 NUEVA PAIPOTE Fundición Hernan Videla Lira Met. plants Atacama Expansion POSSIBLE Feasibility Without EIA 646
2023 NEW MINE LEVEL Codelco Div. El Teniente State - Cu O'Higgins Replacement BASE Implementation EIA approved 3,926 2023 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASE I NuevaUnión SpA Large min. - Cu Atacama New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 3,500 2023 DOMINGA Andes Iron SpA Iron Coquimbo New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 2,888
2024 RT SULFIDES PHASE II Codelco Radomiro Tomic Div. State - Cu Antofagasta New POSSIBLE Feasibility EIA approved 2,154
2026 EL ABRA CONCENTRATOR (e) CCM El Abra Large min. - Cu Antofagasta New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 5,000 2026 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASES II & III NuevaUnión SpA Large min. - Cu Atacama New POTENTIAL Feasibility Without EIA 3,700 2026 ANDINA EXPANSION Codelco Andina Div. State - Cu Valparaíso Expansion POTENTIAL Prefeasibility Without EIA 2,725
Total investment in 2018-2027 portfolio (MMUS$) 65,747
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
This information is used for a more detailed analysis of the portfolio as follows: Section 1.1 reviews
the conditionality of projects; Section 1.2 looks at investment by region, analyzed according to the
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 5
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
target mining sector and the projects’ conditionality; and Section 1.3 analyzes the investment by
country of origin.
1.1. Conditionality of investment
Using the concept of conditionality of the investment, developed by COCHILCO on the basis of the
association and interaction between different variables that affect the development of investment
projects1, it is possible to assess with a little more accuracy the likelihood of implementation within
the timeframe estimated by their owners and respective engineering teams. Figure 1 shows the
distribution of investment by condition while Table 2 shows its distribution by mining sector and
condition.
Figure 1: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by condition
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Table 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by sector and condition of projects
SECTOR TOTAL BASE PROBABLE POSSIBLE POTENTIAL
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
CODELCO 9 22,159 5 15,088 0 0 2 3,529 2 3,542
Large-scale private 15 31,675 3 3,941 7 13,034 2 2,500 3 12,200
Medium-scale private 4 2,041 0 0 2 692 1 624 1 725
Industrial plants 4 3,228 2 2,212 1 370 1 646 0 0
Subtotal copper 32 59,103 10 21,241 10 14,096 6 7,299 6 16,467
Gold and silver 4 2,037 0 0 0 0 4 2,037 0 0
Iron 2 2,958 1 70 0 0 0 0 1 2,888
Lithium 4 1,280 2 480 0 0 2 800 0 0
Industrial minerals 2 370 1 140 1 230 0 0 0 0
Subtotal other minerals 12 6,645 4 690 1 230 6 2,837 1 2,888
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
1 For more information about the methodology, see Appendix 1, “Attributes of projects and condition of materialization”.
BASEMMUS$ 21,931
33.4%14 projects
PROBABLEMMUS$ 14,326
21.8%11 projects
POSSIBLEMMUS$ 10,135
15.4%12 projects
POTENTIALMMUS$ 19,355
29.4%7 projects
Probability of materialization
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Based on the likelihood that the projects can or cannot be implemented in the timeframe estimated
by the mining company, it is possible to classify them as base or probable in a subgroup referred to
as “with a higher probability of materialization” or as possible or potential in a subgroup referred to
as “with a lower probability of materialization”.
Figure 2: Investment in the Chilean mining industry by probability of materialization
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
The first subgroup of projects “with a higher probability of materialization” includes 25 base or
probable projects, representing an investment of US$36,257 million:
- 14 base projects with an investment of US$21,931 million in which Codelco continues to be
the predominant player, accounting for 68.8% of this investment;
- 11 probable projects valued at US$14,326 million of which the large-scale private mining
sector accounts for 91%.
The second subgroup of projects “with a lower probability of materialization” includes 19 projects
for a total of US$29,490 million:
- 12 possible projects valued at US$10,135 million of which Codelco and large-scale private
companies together account for 59.5% while copper mining as a whole accounts for 72%;
- 6 potential projects valued at US$19,355 million of which large-scale copper mining accounts
for 63%.
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITYMUS$ 36,257
55%25 projects
WITH LOWER PROBABILITYMUS$ 29,490
45%19 projects
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1.1.1. Determinants of investment conditionality
For the sake of a better understanding of the classification of projects by conditionality, the table
below shows the variables affecting a project’s probability of materialization.
Table 3: Investment portfolio by determinants of conditionality
Variable
2018-2027
Investment (MMUS$)
% of total N° projects
Type of project
New 34,697 52.8% 21
Replacement 17,960 27.3% 10
Expansion 13,091 19.9% 13
Stage of project
Implementation 21,931 33.4% 14
Feasibility 39,549 60.2% 27
Prefeasibility 4,267 6.5% 3
Environmental permits
RCA approved 41,040 62.4% 27
EIA/DIA suspended 2,888 4.4% 1
EIA/DIA submitted 2,245 3.4% 6
Without EIA/DIA 19,574 29.8% 10
Investment and materialization period
2018-2022 41,854 63.7% 37
After 2022 23,893 36.3% 7
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As can be observed, 52.8% of the initiatives correspond to new projects and the remaining 47.2% to
replacement or expansion projects. In addition, 60.2% are at the feasibility stage while 33.4% are
already being implemented.
Environmental permits are required for the construction phase and 62.4% of the portfolio has
completed this stage. When compared to projects in implementation, it can be seen that there is a
remnant of 13 projects that have not yet begun construction. These projects are the group that
requires more attention and analysis on the part of the authorities.
Finally, 63.7% of the portfolio will be implemented within the next five years, leaving only
seveninitiatives for the following five years.
1.1.2. Indirect determinants of conditionality
The other variables that it is useful to consider, although they do not have a direct bearing on
conditionality, are whether a project is brownfield or greenfield and the end product sought by the
initiative (Table 4).
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Table 4: Investment portfolio by type of project and end product
Variable
2018-2027
Investment (MMUS$)
% of total N° projects
Type of project
Brownfield 40,290 61.3% 25
Greenfield 25,458 38.7% 19
End product
Copper concentrate 48,177 73.3% 21
SX-EW cathodes 470 0.7% 2
Mixed 7,598 11.6% 6
Molybdenum 240 0.4% 1
Gold and silver 2,037 3.1% 4
FURE (ER anodes/cathodes) 2,618 4.0% 2
Iron concentrate and pellet feed 2,958 4.5% 2
Lithium carbonate/hydroxide 1,280 1.9% 4
Iodine/nitrates 370 0.6% 2
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
A lack of greenfield projects is apparent in the table above, which shows that only 38.7% of initiatives
are of this type. This is in line with the thesis that most current projects are geared to operational
continuity, rather than to increasing output. This is the case not only for copper, but also gold,
lithium and industrial minerals.
The table also shows that 73.3% of projects would produce copper concentrate, rather than SX-EW
cathodes via leaching, highlighting the change in the production structure of Chile’s copper industry
(without considering the 11.6% of mixed oxide and sulfide projects). In the case of industrial
minerals, production of nitrates and iodine has been displaced by lithium carbonate and hydroxide
projects, reflecting the boom in electromobility and the use of lithium in batteries. In all, thanks to
the development of copper sulfide deposits, copper continues to be the most important sector in
the portfolio.
1.2. Investment by region
Figure 3 shows the regional distribution of investment in the copper, gold, silver, iron and industrial
minerals sectors.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 9
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Figure 3: Investment portfolio by region, copper mining and other mining
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
The Antofagasta Region continues to lead mining investment, accounting for 42.6% of the portfolio.
Out of investment in this region, 96.2% corresponds to copper. The Antofagasta Region is followed
by the Atacama Region, with 24.7% of the portfolio. Here, copper is also important, accounting for
84.9% of investment. The O’Higgins Region takes third place, with a 9.1% share of investment, all of
MUS$ 5,232
MUS$ 28,025
MUS$ 16,247
MUS$ 5,062
MUS$ 5,190
MMUS$ 5,992
0,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Arica y Parinacota
Tarapacá
Antofagasta
Atacama
Coquimbo
Valparaíso
Santiago
O'Higgins
Copper Other minerals
0
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 10
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which corresponds to copper. It is important to note that 75.3% of investment corresponds to
northern Chile where 92.4% of it would be in copper.
A more detailed analysis can be seen in the distribution of investment by region and conditionality
(Figure 4).
Figure 4: Investment portfolio by region and condition of projects
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
ProbableMUS$ 5,232
100%
Tarapacá
BaseMUS$ 13,037
47%
ProbableMUS$ 4,820
17%
PossibleMUS$ 5,168
18%
PotentialMUS$ 5,000
18%
Antofagasta
BaseMUS$ 740
4%
ProbableMUS$ 3,224
20%Possible
MUS$ 3,54122%
PotentialMUS$ 8,742
54%
AtacamaProbable
MUS$ 1,05021%
PossibleMUS$ 1,124
22%
PotentialMUS$ 2,888
57%
Coquimbo
BaseMUS$ 2,329
45%
PossibleMUS$ 135
3%
PotentialMUS$ 2,725
52%
Valparaíso
BaseMUS$ 5,825
97%
PossibleMUS$ 167
3%
O'Higgins
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According to the data collected, copper mining accounts for 89.9% of the portfolio, with 28 projects
corresponding to Codelco, large and medium-scale private copper mining companies and state and
private metallurgical plants.
Table 5: Investment in copper mining by region and condition of projects
REGION Total Base Probable Possible Potential
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
% of total investment
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Tarapacá 5,002 2 7.6% 0 0 5,002 2 0 0 0 0
Antofagasta 26,955 10 41.0% 12,417 4 4,820 3 4,718 2 5,000 1
Atacama 13,790 10 21.0% 670 1 3,224 4 1,155 1 8,742 4
Coquimbo 2,174 3 3.3% 0 0 1,050 1 1,124 2 0 0
Valparaíso 5,190 2 7.9% 2,329 1 0 0 135 0 2,725 1
O'Higgins 5,992 1 9.1% 5,825 1 0 0 167 0 0 0
TOTAL 59,103 28 89.9% 21,241 7 14,096 10 7,299 5 12,767 6
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
As shown in Figure 3, most investment in copper mining corresponds to the Antofagasta Region and
63.9% of this investment has a higher probability of materialization in the timeframe estimated by
the projects’ owners (base + probable projects), with seven initiatives valued as shown in Table 5.
The Atacama Region is the second most important destination for investment in copper mining.
However, 71.8% of this investment has a lower probability of materialization in the expected
timeframe (possible + potential projects).
The O’Higgins and Valparaíso Regions take third and fourth place in copper investment, respectively.
In the former, 97.2% of the investment has a higher probability of materialization while, in the latter,
the figure drops to 44.9%. In both regions, Codelco, with its divisional growth and environmental
improvement projects, plays a key role.
The Tarapacá Region takes fifth place, thanks to the Quebrada Blanca Hypogene Project and the
Collahuasi Complementary Installations 170 ktpd project, both of which are probable and poised to
begin construction work. The Coquimbo Region also has a portfolio of projects but this is still at the
stage of engineering studies and has a lower probability of materialization within the expected
timeframe (51.7% of projects are possible or potential).
Table 6 shows the regional distribution of investment in the gold, iron, lithium and industrial
minerals sectors.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 12
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Table 6: Investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals sectors by region and condition of projects
REGION
Total Base Probable Possible Potential
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
% of total investment
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
N° projects
Tarapacá 230 1 0.4% 0 0 230 1 0 0 0 0
Antofagasta 1,070 4 1.7% 620 3 0 0 450 1 0 0
Atacama 2,457 6 4.0% 70 1 0 0 2,387 5 0 0
Coquimbo 2,888 1 4.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,888 1
TOTAL 6,645 12 10.7% 690 4 230 1 2,837 6 2,888 1
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
Investment in other mining sectors accounts for 10.7% of the 2018-2027 portfolio with 12 projects,
located between the Tarapacá and Coquimbo Regions.
Projects in sectors such as gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals are mostly possible or potential
(86.2% and seven projects), indicating that sectors other than copper still represent a higher risk of
projects not being implemented in the timeframe envisaged in their engineering studies.
1.3. Origin of investment
Chile stands out as a mining country in which local public and private investment in the industry is
important. However, Chile has an open economy and, as discussed in the next chapter, there is an
important group of international companies that invest in Chile, either as the direct owners of an
operation or as partners of the operators of new initiatives.
Figure 5: Investment portfolio by country of origin (MMUS$ and %)
(*) United Kingdom, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan and Switzerland.
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
The investment in the 2018-2027 portfolio has its origin in 11 countries, led by Chile where Codelco
and Antofagasta Minerals together account for 82% of investment. Chile is followed by Canada, with
Teck, Goldcorp and Capstone Mining accounting for 84.5% of the inflow from this country.
ChileMUS$ 39,385
60%
CanadaMUS$ 13,510
21%
AustraliaMUS$ 4,200
6%
USMUS$ 2,850
4%
JapanMUS$ 1,669
3%
Others*MUS$ 4,134
6%
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 13
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The third most important source of investment is Australia, represented principally by BHP which,
through its Spence Growth Option project, accounts for 78.6% of Australian investment.
Australia is followed by the United States, with Freeport McMoRan and its El Abra Mill project
(89.5% of US investment). Japan is in fifth place, with Sumitomo accounting for 59.4% of investment
from that country.
Finally, the group of “others” comprises the United Kingdom, Poland, South Africa, South Korea,
Taiwan and Switzerland, which together account for 5% of the investment envisaged in the portfolio.
Table 7 and 8 show a breakdown of the figures in Figure 5, separating copper from other minerals.
Table 7: Investment in copper mining by country of origin and condition (MMUS$)
Country of origin
Amount % of
investment Base Probable Possible Potential
Chile 35,645 54.22% 17,300 7,109 5,099 6,137
Canada 12,404 18.87% 368 4,836 0 7,200
Australia 3,880 5.90% 3,300 0 0 580
US 2,550 3.88% 0 0 0 2,550
Japan 1,648 2.51% 92 456 1,100 0
United Kingdom 1,233 1.88% 181 1,052 0 0
Poland 1,100 1.67% 0 0 1,100 0
South Korea 510 0.78% 0 510 0 0
Switzerland 133 0.20% 0 133 0 0
TOTAL 59,103 89.9% 21,241 14,096 7,299 16,467
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
Table 8: Investment in gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals by country of origin and condition (MMUS$)
Country of origin
Amount % of
investment Base Probable Possible Potential
Chile 3,740 5.69% 211 152 489 2,888
Canada 1,107 1.68% 102 74 931 0
South Africa 1,000 1.52% 0 0 1,000 0
Australia 320 0.49% 70 0 250 0
US 300 0.46% 300 0 0 0
Taiwan 158 0.24% 0 0 158 0
Japan 21 0.03% 7 5 9 0
TOTAL 6,645 10.1% 690 230 2,837 2,888
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
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Chapter 2:
Estimate of annual distribution of investment in
portfolio projects
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 15
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2. Estimate of annual distribution of investment in portfolio projects
This chapter provides a breakdown by year of the investment to be materialized over the next ten
years. For reasons of clarity, the information is grouped according to when the investment would
be materialized defining three principal periods:
- Before 2018: US$10,501 million, equivalent to 16% of the portfolio, corresponds to projects
materialized before 2018 but which have yet to start operation.
- Short and medium-term: US$42,748 million, or 65% of the portfolio, would be materialized
in 2018-2022 when 37 of the 43 projects that make up the portfolio would start operation.
- Long-term: US$12,498 million, or 19% of the portfolio, would be materialized in 2023-2027
when the last seven projects in the portfolio would start operation.
Figure 6 shows the annual flow of the investment estimated for 2018-2027, separating copper from
“other minerals” (gold, iron, lithium and industrial minerals).
Figure 6: Annualized investment, materialized and pending, by type of mining
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Estimating the investment likely in each particular year provides a clearer picture of the outlook.
However, in order to increase the robustness of the analysis, it is necessary to contrast the annual
amounts with the investment’s conditionality, based on the public information available. Table 9
shows a first estimate of annualized investment according to probability of materialization for the
state mining sector (copper) and the private sector (copper, gold, iron, lithium and industrial
minerals).
87%
92%
88% 85%83% 95%
100%
13%
8%
12% 15%
17%5%
10,501
5,568
10,515 10,382
8,782
7,500
12,498
0,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Before 2018 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 - 2027
MU
S$
Copper Other minerals
0
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Table 9: Annualized mining investment in Chile, 2018-2027, by probability of materialization and sector
SECTOR AND CONDITION Before 2018
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Subtotal
2018-2022 2023-2027
TOTAL % of
investment
TOTAL 10,501 5,568 10,515 10,382 8,782 7,500 42,747 12,498 65,747 100%
Base + Probable 8,413 4,859 8,302 6,436 3,857 3,355 26,809 1,034 36,256 55.1%
Possible + Potential 2,088 709 2,213 3,946 4,925 4,145 15,938 11,464 29,491 44.9%
STATE MINING 5,233 3,238 3,765 3,408 2,274 2,875 15,560 3,983 24,777 100%
Base + Probable 4,879 2,918 3,007 2,512 1,650 1,920 12,007 174 17,060 68.9%
Possible + Potential 354 320 758 896 624 955 3,553 3,809 7,717 31.1%
PRIVATE MINING 5,268 2,330 6,750 6,974 6,509 4,625 27,187 8,515 40,970 100%
Base + Probable 3,534 1,941 5,295 3,924 2,207 1,435 14,802 860 19,196 46.9%
Possible + Potential 1,734 389 1,455 3,050 4,302 3,190 12,385 7,655 21,774 53.1%
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
As shown in Figure 2, 55% of the total portfolio corresponds to investment with a higher probability
of materialization. However, analysis of annualized investment profiles by sector indicates that,
although the private mining sector makes the largest contribution to total investment, investment
by the state sector has a higher probability of materialization in the next decade (68.9% of the base
+ probable portfolio), highlighting its importance in national investment.
Moreover, it can be seen that 23.2% of the investment more likely to materialize has already been
implemented and 73.9% will materialize within the next five years.
2.1. Distribution of investment in copper mining
Table 10 shows the annual flow of investment in copper mining by sector: Codelco, large-scale and
medium-scale private mining and metallurgical plants, ranking the investment from greater to lesser
probability of materialization within the timeframe indicated by the projects’ owners.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 17
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Table 10: Annual distribution of investment in copper mining by condition of projects (MMUS$)
COPPER MINING AND CONDITION
Before 2018
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Subtotal
2018-2022 2023 - 2027
TOTAL % of
investment
TOTAL 9,115 5,097 9,206 8,784 7,286 7,116 37,489 12,498 59,102 100%
Base 5,786 3,542 4,687 3,482 1,650 1,920 15,281 174 21,241 35.9%
Probable 2,506 1,030 3,141 2,916 2,207 1,435 10,729 860 14,095 23.8%
Possible 515 386 780 1,181 1,799 1,115 5,261 1,523 7,299 12%
Potential 308 139 598 1,205 1,630 2,646 6,218 9,941 16,467 28%
CODELCO 5,201 2,411 3,065 2,986 1,930 2,583 12,975 3,983 22,159 100%
Base 4,879 2,115 2,431 2,377 1,425 1,687 10,035 174 15,088 68.1%
Possible 239 252 381 334 250 550 1,767 1,523 3,529 15.9%
Potential 83 44 253 275 255 346 1,173 2,286 3,542 16.0%
LARGE-SCALE MINING 3,257 1,669 4,816 4,545 4,707 4,166 19,903 8,515 31,675 100%
Base 742 549 1,680 970 0 0 3,199 0 3,941 12.4%
Probable 2,326 950 2,711 2,545 2,207 1,435 9,848 860 13,034 41.1%
Possible 55 95 220 450 1,250 431 2,446 0 2,500 7.9%
Potential 135 75 205 580 1,250 2,300 4,410 7,655 12,200 38.5%
MEDIUM-SCALE MINING 436 90 385 750 305 75 1,605 0 2,041 100%
Probable 157 55 190 290 0 0 535 0 692 33.9%
Possible 189 15 55 110 180 75 435 0 624 30.6%
Potential 90 20 140 350 125 0 635 0 725 35.5%
MET./IND. PLANTS 221 927 940 503 344 292 3,006 0 3,228 100%
Base 165 878 576 135 225 233 2,047 0 2,212 68.5%
Probable 24 25 240 81 0 0 346 0 370 11.5%
Possible 32 24 124 287 119 59 613 0 646 20.0%
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
The table above indicates that copper projects for US$9,115 million have already been
implemented, leaving US$37,489 million for implementation over the next five years and US$12,498
million for 2023 onwards.
Out of the US$35,336 million in initiatives more likely to be implemented within the timeframe
anticipated by their owners, around 23.5% has already been implemented and around US$26,010
million is scheduled for 2018-2022, leaving US$1,034 million for 2023 onwards.
The projects with a lower probability of materialization within the expected timeframe represent an
investment of US$11,479 million over the next five years, leaving US$11,464 million for
materialization as from 2023. Only 3.5% of the total investment envisaged in this group has already
been implemented, reflecting the fact that projects are still at an early stage.
2.2. Distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals
Table 11 summarizes annual investment in the gold, iron and industrial minerals sectors.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 18
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Table 11: Annual distribution of investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals by condition of projects (MMUS$)
TYPE OF MINING AND CONDITION
Before 2018
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Subtotal
2018-2022 2023 - 2027
TOTAL % of
investment
TOTAL 1,386 471 1,309 1,598 1,497 384 5,259 0 6,645 100%
Base 98 234 320 38 0 0 592 0 690 10.4%
Probable 23 53 154 0 0 0 207 0 230 3.5%
Possible 292 164 655 1,180 447 100 2,546 0 2,837 42.7%
Potential 374 20 180 380 1,050 284 1,914 0 2,888 43.5%
GOLD 265 129 515 860 247 22 1,773 0 2,037 100%
Possible 265 129 515 860 247 22 1,773 0 2,037 100.0%
IRON 988 36 220 380 1,050 284 1,970 0 2,958 100%
Base 14 16 40 0 0 0 56 0 70 2.4%
Potential 974 20 180 380 1,050 284 1,914 0 2,888 97.6%
INDUST. MINERALS 134 306 574 358 200 78 1,516 0 1,650 100%
Base 84 218 280 38 0 0 536 0 620 37.6%
Probable 23 53 154 0 0 0 207 0 230 13.9%
Possible 27 35 140 320 200 78 773 0 800 48.5%
Source: Compiled by COCHILCO using public information about each project.
In the case of gold and iron mining, a trend seen over the past three years persists and projects are
concentrated in the subgroup with a lower probability of materialization within the expected
timeframe. For gold, investment of US$2,037 million is expected, divided into four projects of which
the last would be implemented in 2022. For iron, there are two projects worth a total of US$2,958
million of which one would be implemented in 2019 and the other not before 2023.
In the case of industrial minerals, 51.5% of the investment is base or probable. In recent years, this
sector has been driven by lithium mining, which accounts for 77.6% of the investment expected in
this subgroup.
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Chapter 3:
Portfolio’s maximum contribution to output,
2018
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 20
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3. Portfolio’s maximum contribution to output, 2018
The amount of investment involved in the portfolio of mining projects surveyed annually by
COCHILCO is important. However, the investment’s impact on future output, with the resulting
supply chain development, is of even greater importance.
Based on the information available for the different projects, this chapter seeks to estimate the
maximum contribution they could make to the country’s mining output.
3.1. Contribution to copper output
The initiatives related to copper production are shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Copper projects and maximum output
Start-up date
Project Sector Condition Operator Product Annual Cu production
capacity (ton)2
2018 CANDELARIA 2030 Large min. - Cu BASE Lundin Mining Cu in conc. 33,000
2019 CHUQUICAMATA SUBTERRÁNEA State - Cu BASE Codelco Cu in conc. 360,000
2019 COLLAHUASI COMP. INSTAL. 170 KTPD Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Doña Inés de Collahuasi Cu in conc. 94,000
2019 PLAYA VERDE Med. min. - Cu PROBABLE Copper Bay Cu in conc. & SX-EW cathodes 8,640
2020 SPENCE GROWTH OPTION Large min. - Cu BASE BHP Cu in conc. 198,000
2020 MANTOS BLANCOS CONC. DE-BOTTLE. Large min. - Cu BASE Mantos Copper Cu in conc. 19,000
2020 DIEGO DE ALMAGRO Med. min. - Cu PROBABLE Copec Cu in conc. & SX-EW cathodes 43,600
2020 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXPAN. PHASE I Large min. - Cu PROBABLE AMSA Cu in conc. 66,000
2020 LEACHING OF CONCENTRATE Met. plants PROBABLE Codelco Fine Cu in PLS 60,000
2021 MANTOVERDE DEVELOPMENT Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Mantos Copper Cu in conc. 87,000
2021 RAJO INCA State - Cu POTENTIAL Codelco Cu in conc. 70,000
2021 PRODUCTORA Med. min. - Cu POTENTIAL Hot Chili Cu in conc. & SX-EW cathodes 59,200
2022 CENTINELA DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT (*) Large min. - Cu PROBABLE AMSA Cu in conc. 270,000
2022 ZALDÍVAR OPERATIONAL CONTINUITY Large min. - Cu PROBABLE AMSA SX-EW cathodes 126,000
2022 SANTO DOMINGO Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Capstone Mining Cu in conc. 168,300
2022 QUEBRADA BLANCA HYPOGENE Large min. - Cu PROBABLE Teck Cu in conc. 270,000
2022 SIERRA GORDA EXPANSION 230 KTPD Large min. - Cu POSSIBLE KGHM International Cu in conc. 120,000
2022 LOS PELAMBRES MARG. EXPAN. PHASE II Large min. - Cu POSSIBLE AMSA Cu in conc. 44,000
2022 EL ESPINO Med. min. - Cu POSSIBLE Pucobre Cu in conc. 35,000
2022 NUEVA PAIPOTE Met. plants POSSIBLE ENAMI Cu anodes 70,000
2023 NEW MINE LEVEL State - Cu BASE Codelco Cu in conc. 330,000
2023 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASE I Large min. - Cu POTENTIAL NuevaUnión SpA Cu-Mo-Au in conc. 175,000
2023 DOMINGA Iron POTENTIAL Andes Iron Pellet Feed (Fe) / Cu in conc. 21,000
2024 RT SULFIDES PHASE II State - Cu POSSIBLE Codelco Cu in conc. 250,000
2026 EL ABRA CONCENTRATOR (Ex EL ABRA MILL) Large min. - Cu POTENTIAL Freeport McMoRan Cu in conc. 300,000
2026 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASES II & III Large min. - Cu POTENTIAL NuevaUnión SpA Cu-Au in conc. 75,000
2026 ANDINA EXPANSION State - Cu POTENTIAL Codelco Cu in conc. 150,000
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As shown in the table above, production of copper concentrate predominates. As a result, out of
the estimated maximum of 3.53 million tons of fine copper that the projects included in the portfolio
2 Reference production capacity based on public information; corresponds to the maximum achievable by the operation, not an estimate
of constant output.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 21
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would contribute by 2028, 95.8% would correspond to concentrate. This contribution from
concentrate would also be associated with other minerals such as molybdenum, gold and silver.
It should be borne in mind that this new output cannot simply be added to existing production
because it is necessary to take into account the natural decline in output at existing operations. In
other words, an important part of the portfolio corresponds to replacement projects or “new”
projects that completely redesign the production method of an existing operation.
3.2. Contribution to output of molybdenum, gold, silver and iron
The change in the production matrix of copper projects discussed above implies that they would
also have an impact on output of minerals such as molybdenum, gold and silver and, in some cases,
iron. A summary of their contribution, in the form of primary and secondary production, is shown
in Table 13.
Table 13: Projects contributing to molybdenum, gold, silver and iron output by 2028
Start-up date
Project Sector Region Condition Operator Product Annual
production capacity
Unit
2018 MOLYNOR EXPANSION Met. plants Antofagasta BASE Molymet Mo oxide 50,600 ton Mo
2019 MARIPOSA Iron Atacama BASE Admiralty Resources Fe conc. 64,260 ton Fe conc.
2020 SALARES NORTE Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Gold Fields Dore 7,860 kg Au
2020 SPENCE GROWTH OPTION Gran Min. - Cu Antofagasta BASE BHP Mo Conc. 7,500 ton Mo
2021 NUEVA ESPERANZA - ARQUEROS Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Kingsgate Consolidate Ltd. Doré 250 / 100 kg Au / ton Ag
2021 CERRO MARICUNGA Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Rio2 Limited Doré 8,900 kg Au
2022 LA COIPA PHASE 7 Gold Atacama POSSIBLE Kinross Doré 6,200 kg Au
2023 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASE I Gran Min. - Cu Atacama POTENTIAL NuevaUnion SpA Mo-Au in conc. 1,700 / 4,800 ton Mo / kg Au
2023 DOMINGA Iron Coquimbo POTENTIAL Andes Iron Pellet feed 7,200,000 ton Fe
2026 NUEVAUNIÓN PHASES II & III Gran Min. - Cu Atacama POTENTIAL NuevaUnion SpA Au in conc. 2,850 kg Au
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As seen in the table above, the largest contribution to molybdenum production would come from
the Spence Growth Option project and NuevaUnión Phase I project, which together would account
for a maximum contribution of 9,200 tons by 2028. The Molynor expansion project is not included
because it would only contribute capacity for refining molybdenum concentrate.
In the case of iron, the contribution of the projects included in the portfolio would reach 64,260
tons of Fe concentrate and 11 million tons of Fe mineral in pellet feed, giving a total of some 7.24
million tons of fine iron, assuming a grade of 65% at both operations.
Finally, in the case of gold, the maximum contribution of primary production from the three
initiatives included in the portfolio is estimated to reach 23,210 kg by 2028 while secondary
production from the NuevaUnión Phases I, II and III projects would reach 7,650 kg, giving a total
maximum contribution of 30,860 kg towards the end of the decade. Only the Nueva Esperanza
project indicates that it would produce silver, contributing around 100 tons contained in doré by
2028.
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3.3. Contribution to output of lithium and other industrial minerals
The portfolio includes six projects of this type of which four correspond to lithium, highlighting the
importance acquired recently by this segment as compared to the iodine and nitrates more
traditionally produced in Chile.
Table 14: Projects contributing to output of lithium and other industrial minerals
Start-up date
Project
Sector Region Condition Operator Product Annual production
capacity Unit
2019 LA NEGRA PLANT EXPANSION – PHASE 3
Lithium Antofagasta BASE
Rockwood (Albemarle)
Carbonate 42,700 ton Li2CO3
2019 PEDRO DE VALDIVIA DIS. & REF. PLANT
Ind. Min. Antofagasta BASE SQM Refined NO3 420,000 ton
2019 ORCOMA
Ind. Min. Tarapacá PROBABLE SQM Iodine and NO3 salts 2,500 / 320,325 ton I / ton NO3
2020 SALAR DEL CARMEN EXPANSION
Lithium Antofagasta BASE SQM Lithium carbonate/hydroxide
22,000 / 26,000 ton Li2CO3 / ton LiOH
2020 MARICUNGA SALTS PRODUCTION
Lithium Atacama POSSIBLE SIMCO Lithium carbonate/ hydroxide/K chloride
5,700 / 9,100 / 38,900 ton Li2CO3 / ton LiOH / ton KCL
2022 LITHIUM CARBONATE EXPANSION 180 KTPY
Lithium Antofagasta POSSIBLE SQM Lithium carbonate 110,000 ton Li2CO3
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
As shown in Table 14, the contribution to lithium output would consist in some 180,400 tons of
Li2CO3 and 35,100 tons of LiOH by 2028, with SQM accounting for 73% and 74% of the increase in
lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, respectively.
In the case of other industrial minerals, contribution to output is estimated at 2,500 tons for iodine,
320,325 tones for nitrates and 38,900 tons for potassium chloride.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 23
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Chapter 4:
Comparison of mining investment portfolios to
2018
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 24
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4. Comparison of mining investment portfolios to 2018
This chapter examines the evolution of the investment portfolio and compares the current portfolio
with previous ones. It is first analyzed with respect to the 2017 portfolio (section 4.1) before going
on to review the evolution of earlier portfolios, examining the growth of the investment volume of
portfolios since 2006 compared to other variables (section 4.2).
As indicated in Chapter 1, the portfolio of mining projects in Chile as updated to August 2018
includes 44 initiatives, down from the 47 projects in the portfolio reported in July 2017,3 4 but with
an increase of US$892 million in the amount of investment involved.
4.1. Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios
The changes between the 2017 and 2018 portfolios as regards the projects’ likelihood of
materialization and timeframe and the investment involved are shown in Figure 7 and Table 15.
They include:
a) Seven projects valued at US$2,286 million, which were part of the 2017 portfolio, are
excluded in 2018 because they started operation in the intervening period.
b) Two projects included in 2017 are excluded in 2018 due to their restructuring. One of these
is the Cerro Blanco rutile and feldspar project, valued last year at US$380 million, which,
however, is likely to be reincorporated following its sale by US-based White Mountain
Titanium to an overseas financial group. The other initiative is the locally-owned iodine
Arbiodo project, valued at US$396 million, which has been postponed due to problems with
its concessions and land use.
c) Six new projects worth US$5,902 million are incorporated into the portfolio. Three are
copper mining projects: the Collahuasi Complementary Installations 170 ktpd project for
US$302 million, the Zaldívar Operational Continuity project for US$100 million and the
NuevaUnión project Phases II and III for US$3,700 million. The others are the Salares Norte
gold project of Gold Fields, valued at US$1,000 million, and two lithium projects: SQM
Salar’s brownfield Lithium Carbonate Expansion 180 ktpy project for US$450 million (which
would complement the Salar del Carmen Expansion project included in the 2017 portfolio)
and the Maricunga Salts Production greenfield project of SIMCO SpA, a member of the
Errázuriz Group, for US$350 million.
d) 18 initiatives, valued at US$21,898 million show no change with respect to 2017.
3 Considering Codelco’s “Other development projects” and “Information projects” in both cases.
4 See “Inversión en la minería chilena - Cartera de proyectos 2017-2026” (DEPP 14/2017).
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 25
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e) In the case of Codelco’s four structural projects, the dates and likelihood of materialization
have not changed but the investment involved has been reduced by US$1,790 million.
However, the group of projects classified as “other Codelco investments” mean a net
increase of US$1,039 million over the next five years as compared to the 2017 portfolio.
f) The expected start-up of seven projects valued at US$9,916 million has been put back by
between one and two years, either because the owners have indicated that this will be the
case or because, based on the methodology explained in this report, COCHILCO estimates
that it will occur. None of these changes of start-up date affect the project’s likelihood of
materialization or the estimated investment.
g) In the case of five projects, the likelihood of materialization, value and/or start-up date have
changed, implying a net drop in investment of US$1,197 million.
Figure 7: 2017 portfolio vs. 2018 portfolio
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
64,85647 projects
- 7762 projects
- 2,2867 projects
- 1,9487 projects
+5,9026 projects
65,74744 projects
0,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2017 portfolio Restructured Start operation Investmentadjust.
New projects 2018 PORTFOLIO
MUS$
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Table 15: Principal changes in investment portfolio, 2018 vs. 2017
ITEM N° projects
Investment portfolio
2017 (MMUS$)
Investment portfolio
2018 (MMUS$)
Difference 2018 vs. 2017 (MMUS$)
Projects that started operation 7 2,286 0 -2,286
Projects that were restructured 2 776 0 -776
New projects incorporated into portfolio 6 0 5,902 5,902
Projects without changes 18 21,898 21,898 0
Projects with change only in value 4 11,636 9,846 -1,790
Projects only with delay of start-up date 7 9,916 9,916 0
Projects redefined changing likelihood of materialization/value and/or start-up date
5 11,749 10,552 -1,197
Other Codelco investments* 4 6,595 7,634 1,039
DIFFERENCE MMUS$ 64,856 65,747 892
(*) Includes “other development projects”, “information projects”, “FURE projects” and “tailings dams”.
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
The most important differences between the two portfolios by likelihood of materialization, mining sector and these two variables together as well as by region are shown in the tables below.
Table 16: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by condition of projects
Condition of materialization
2017 – 2026 2018 - 2027
Investment (MMUS$)
% of total N° projects Investment (MMUS$)
% of total N° projects
BASE 19,825 30.6% 15 21,931 33.4% 14
PROBABLE 12,573 19.4% 13 14,326 21.8% 11
POSSIBLE 13,951 21.5% 12 10,135 15.4% 12
POTENTIAL 18,506 28.5% 7 19,355 29.4% 7
BASE + PROBABLE 32,398 50.0% 28 36,257 55.1% 25
POSSIBLE + POTENTIAL 32,457 50.0% 19 29,490 44.9% 19
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
In 2017, projects with a higher probability of materialization (base + probable) in the timeframe
envisaged by their owners and those with a lower probability (possible + potential) were very similar
in amount. By comparison, in 2018, the group with a higher probability shows an increase of 5
percentage points, indicating the robustness of the investment portfolio for the next decade.
Table 17 shows that the importance of the copper sector is a result of the sum of the investments
of Codelco and large and medium-scale private companies and in metallurgical plants, included in
the portfolio as from 2014. It also shows that the portfolio of copper projects drops by almost 34.4%,
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 27
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partly due to the start-up of the three initiatives indicated above as well as the three restructured
copper projects.
Table 17: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by mining sector
Mining sector 2017 - 2026 2018 – 2027
Difference in investment Investment
(MMUS$) % of total N° projects
Investment (MMUS$)
% of total N° projects
CODELCO 23,524 36.3% 9 22,159 33.7% 9 -5.8%
Large min. - Cu 29,763 45.9% 18 31,675 48.2% 15 6.4%
Med. min. - Cu 2,041 3.1% 4 2,041 3.1% 4 0.0%
Gold 1,037 1.6% 3 2,037 3.1% 4 96.5%
Metallurgical plants 3,907 6.0% 5 3,228 4.9% 4 -17.4%
Iron 2,958 4.6% 2 2,958 4.5% 2 0.0%
Lithium 480 0.7% 2 1,280 1.9% 4 166.7%
Industrial minerals 1,146 1.8% 4 370 0.6% 2 -67.7%
Copper 59,235 91.3% 36 59,103 89.9% 32 -0.2%
Gold 1,037 1.6% 3 2,037 3.1% 4 96.5%
Lithium 480 0.7% 2 1,280 1.9% 4 166.7%
Others* 4,104 6.3% 6 3,328 5.1% 4 -18.9%
(*) Corresponds to the sum of iron and industrial minerals.
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
In contrast to previous years, gold mining shows a certain reactivation while, in the case of industrial
minerals, there is a drop explained mostly by the exclusion of the Arbiodo and Cerro Blanco projects
from the portfolio. The case of Codelco is important because, while the value of some of its
structural projects increases, most of the company’s other projects decreases without affecting their
principal objectives, indicating that the concept of productivity also applies to the state’s mining
investments. In Table 18, projects are shown by both sector and likelihood of materialization.
Table 18: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by mining sector and condition of projects
Type of mining 2017-2026 2018-2027
BASE PROBABLE POSSIBLE POTENTIAL BASE PROBABLE POSSIBLE POTENTIAL
CODELCO 14,284 - 5,491 3,749 15,088 - 3,529 3,542
Large min. - Cu 2,650 10,581 2,500 14,032 3,941 13,034 2,500 12,200
Med. min. - Cu - 692 624 725 - 692 624 725
Gold 2,891 - 1,016 - 2,212 370 646 -
Metallurgical plants - - 1,037 - - - 2,037 -
Iron - 70 2,888 - 70 - - 2,888
Lithium - 480 - - 480 - 800 -
Ind. minerals - 750 396 - 140 230 - -
Copper 19,825 11,273 9,631 18,506 21,241 14,096 7,299 16,467
Gold - - 1,037 - - - 2,037 -
Lithium - 480 - - 480 - 800 -
Others* - 1,300 3,284 - 690 230 800 2,888
(*) Corresponds to the sum of iron and industrial minerals.
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
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Table 19 shows that, in the 2018 portfolio, investment in the north of the country5 increases by 4.3%,
led by the Atacama Region (+48%).
Table 19: Comparison of 2017 and 2018 portfolios by region
Region 2016 - 2025 2017 - 2026 Difference
in investment
Investment (MMUS$)
% of total N° projects Investment (MMUS$)
% of total
N° projects
Tarapacá 5,562 8.6% 4 5,232 8.0% 3 -5.9%
Antofagasta 30,699 47.3% 18 28,025 42.6% 15 -8.7%
Atacama 10,977 16.9% 15 16,247 24.7% 17 48.0%
Coquimbo 5,062 7.8% 4 5,062 7.7% 4 0.0%
Valparaíso 5,336 8.2% 3 5,190 7.9% 3 -2.7%
Santiago 616 0.9% 1 0 0.0% 0 -100.0%
O'Higgins 6,603 10.2% 2 5,992 9.1% 2 -9.2%
Northern Chile 52,301 80.6% 41 54,566 83.0% 39 4.3%
Central-southern Chile
12,555 19.4% 6 11,182 17.0% 5 -10.9%
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
5 Northern Chile comprises the Tarapacá to Coquimbo Regions and central-southern Chile comprises the Valparaíso, Santiago and
O’Higgins Regions.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 29
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4.2. Historical comparison of portfolios
The net increase in the 2018-2027 portfolio is not in itself very significant but does indicate a
strengthening of mining activity. However, despite improved world market conditions, this remains
cautious. Figure 8 shows the relationship between mining companies’ investment plans and the
nominal and real price of copper.
Figure 8: Investment portfolios surveyed by COCHILCO, 2006-2018
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Since 2006, 46 projects valued at US$36,159 million have been implemented, with 92.3%
corresponding to copper projects, 0.2% to gold and silver and 7.5% to iron (Figure 9).
18,925 21,941
29,695
43,23151,063
66,890
104,300
112,556104,851
77,290
49,208 64,856
65,747
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0,000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Copper Gold and silver
Iron and industrial minerals Nominal Cu price (cUS/lb)
Real Cu price (cUS/lb)
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 30
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Figure 9: Projects starting operation between 2006 and 2017
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
Two projects, representing an investment of US$700 million, are expected to start operation in 2018. 2018 differs from previous years in that there is a greater diversification of the type of projects entering the portfolio, with gold making a reappearance through the Salares Norte project and industrial minerals boosted by two lithium projects (Figure 10).
Figure 10: New projects entering the portfolio between 2007 and 2018
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
7 projectsMUS$ 2,859
3 projectsMUS$ 71
3 projectsMUS$ 1,873
1 projectMUS$ 172
5 projectsMUS$ 2,838
3 projectsMUS$ 3,609
4 projectsMUS$ 1.667
2 projectsMUS$ 6,435
6 projectsMUS$ 7,587
3 projectsMUS$ 6,251
2 projectsMUS$ 511
7 projectsMUS$ 2,286
0,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MU
S$
Copper Gold and silver Iron and industrial minerals
8 projectsMUS$ 4,327
1 projectMUS$ 2,500
8 projectsMUS$ 6,388
7 projectsMUS$ 7,822
5 projectsMUS$ 10,281
8 projectsMUS$ 32,689
19 projectsMUS$ 13,110
9 projectsMUS$ 8,961
5 projectsMUS$ 5,580
6 projectsMUS$ 4,601
4 projectsMUS$ 7,210
6 projectsMUS$ 5,902
0,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MU
S$
Copper Gold and silver Iron and industrial minerals
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Given that copper mining accounts for 89.9% of the portfolio, it is interesting to note the recovery in the maximum contribution to copper output of projects included in the portfolios of the last three years. This is highest in 2018 after the drop in investment in 2014 and 2015.
Figure 11: Historical copper portfolios and their contribution to output
Source: Estimated by COCHILCO.
This growth in copper projects’ contribution to output is in marked contrast to the amounts invested
in copper. As shown in the figure below, capital intensity per copper project has been increasing
since 2016 but, when measured in terms of the fine copper contributed, has dropped from almost
US$20,000/ton to US$15,800/ton. Figure 72: Capital intensity per copper project vs. capital intensity per ton of fine Cu contributed
43,2
13
55,3
28
55,8
75
2.2
3.33.5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
0,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Mt
fin
e co
pp
er
MU
S$
Investment in copper Contribution to copper output
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 32
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
8161,036
1,294
1,791 1,6582,013
2,6802,891
2,5042,294
1,662 1,7851,996
8.19.0
10.2
13.0 11.0
16.6
20.519.0
16.517.7
19.6
16.6 15.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
0,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
kUS$
/mt
fin
e C
u
MU
S$/p
roje
ct
Capital intensity per copper project Capital intensity per ton of fine Cu produced
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 33
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Chapter 5:
Conclusions
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 34
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5. Conclusions
This survey of mining investments for 2018-2027 detected 44 initiatives, with a net increase of
US$892 million on the previous year’s portfolio, indicating a stabilization of the mining industry,
with a view to growing in the coming years in line with substantial improvements in world market
conditions and our country’s economic development.
It is interesting to see how, despite the swings of the market, mining investment in Chile has
remained active, with 46 projects totaling an outlay of US$36,159 million materialized since 2006,
of which 92.3% corresponded to copper. In recent years, however, a certain diversification of
investment to other segments of the industry has become apparent in what could prove a sign of a
modernization of the focus of mining investment in Chile.
The main results of analysis of the investment portfolio can be summarized as follows:
Origin of investment
The investment represented by the 2018-2027 portfolio has its origin mainly in 11 countries, led by
Chile. Here, the main players are Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals which together account for 82%
of local investment. Chile is followed by Canada, with Teck, Goldcorp and Capstone Mining as the
main investors and accounting for 84.5% of Canadian investment.
In third position, Australia is represented mainly by BHP which, with its Spence Growth Option
project, accounts for 78.6% of Australian investment.
The United States is the fourth most important source of investment, with Freeport McMoRan and
its El Abra Mill project accounting for 89.5% of US investment. In the case of Japan, in fifth place,
Sumitomo accounts for 59.4% of Japanese investment.
The “others” group includes the United Kingdom, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan and
Switzerland, which together account for 5% of the total investment in the portfolio.
State mining, represented by Codelco and ENAMI, is responsible for 37.7% of the investment in the
portfolio while the private sector, including large and medium-scale copper mining as well as gold,
silver, iron and industrial minerals, is responsible for the remaining 62.3%, with copper mining
predominating (83.8% of private-sector investment).
Purpose of investment
Out of the 44 initiatives that make up the portfolio, 52.8% are new projects and the remaining 47.2%
are replacement or expansion projects. In the case of the stage of the project, 60.2% are at the
feasibility stage and 33.4% are already being implemented.
For the construction phase, environmental permits must be obtained and 59.9% of the portfolio has
completed this stage. When comparing with projects under construction, it can be seen that there
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 35
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are 12 projects that have yet to start construction. These are the projects that require more
attention and analysis on the part of the authorities. The analysis also shows that 63.7% of the
portfolio will be implemented within the next five years, leaving only seven projects for the
subsequent five years.
The survey found that 73.3% of the projects correspond to the production of copper concentrate at
the expense of production of SX-EW cathodes via leaching. This points to a change in the production
structure of copper mining in Chile (without considering the 11.6% of mixed oxide and sulfide
projects). In the case of industrial minerals, the production of nitrates and iodine has been displaced
by lithium carbonate and hydroxide projects, reflecting the boom in electromobility and the use of
lithium in batteries.
Only 38.7% of the projects in the portfolio are greenfield, indicating that most current projects are
geared to operational continuity, rather than increasing output. This is the case for gold, lithium and
industrial minerals as well as copper.
Region of Chile
The Antofagasta Region continues to lead mining investment, accounting for 42.6% of the portfolio.
Out of investment in this region, 96.2% corresponds to copper. The Antofagasta Region is followed
by the Atacama Region, with 24.7% of the portfolio. Here, copper is also important, accounting for
84.9% of investment. The O’Higgins Region takes third place, with a 9.1% share of investment, all of
which corresponds to copper.
It is important to note that 75.3% of investment corresponds to northern Chile where 92.4% would
be in copper.
Maximum contribution to output
In contribution to output, the production of concentrates predominates and, based on analysis of
the maximum production capacity of the projects included in the portfolio, it can be concluded that,
out of the estimated maximum of 3.53 million tons of fine copper they would contribute by 2028,
95.8% would correspond to concentrate. This would also imply a contribution in the form of other
minerals such as molybdenum (9,200 tons) and gold (7,650 kg).
In addition to the contribution of copper mining projects to gold output, the projects in the survey
would contribute primary production of around 23,210 kg of gold and 100 tons of silver. In addition,
iron projects could contribute some 7.24 million tons of iron by around 2028.
In the case of industrial minerals, additional production would comprise 180,400 tons of lithium
carbonate, 35,100 tons of lithium hydroxide, 2,500 tons of iodine, 320,325 tons of nitrates and
38,900 tons of potassium chloride.
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Conditionality of investment
Projects with a higher probability of materialization in the expected timeframe have gained ground
as compared to those with a lower probability of materialization, with the former increasing by 5
percentage points in a sign of the robustness of the investment portfolio for the next decade.
There are 25 base and probable projects totaling US$36,257 million and representing 55.1% of the
portfolio while possible and potential projects, which are more prone to be affected by changes in
market conditions (19 projects) total US$29,490 million, equivalent to 44.9% of the portfolio.
Analysis of annual investment by sector shows that, although the private sector contributes more
in terms of amount of investment, state projects have a higher probability of materialization over
the next decade, accounting for 68.9% of base and probable projects and highlighting this sector’s
importance for investment.
Out of the investment with a higher probability of materialization, 23.2% has already been
implemented and 73.9% would be implemented in the next five years.
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Appendices
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APPENDIX 1: Methodology
The methodology used to prepare this report is based on the following criteria:
1. Coverage
The survey covers investments for the purpose of production (replacement or expansion of
production or new projects) envisaged by Codelco and large and medium-scale private companies
in the metallic and non-metallic mining sectors, excluding energy minerals. Only those projects
representing an investment of more than US$70 million are included. The portfolio includes projects
under implementation and those which companies are studying with a declared intention of starting
their implementation within the next five years.
For the purposes of the annual distribution of each project’s estimated investment, the sum of the
investments already materialized from the beginning of the project until the end of the year prior
to this report is included under the concept of “ Before xxxx”, where “xxxx” is the year of the report’s
publication. The estimated investment for each of the years of the next five-year period is then
indicated. In the case of projects that will start operations after the end of the five-year period,
investment through to their start-up is presented as “Investment after xxxx”, where “xxxx” is the
year subsequent to the last year of the current five-year period.
The information presented in this report is the best known approximation to the evolution of the
projects considered. In some cases, in the absence of public information, the annual distribution of
the investment is the authors’ estimate and in no way represents a commitment on the part of the
project’s owners.
Information about the projects includes an estimate of the metal production they would contribute,
when appropriate, as well as an indication of the projects’ current status.
2. Attributes of projects and condition of materialization
The reliability of the information presented depends on the quantity and quality of information
available about the projects which, in turn, depends on their attributes at the time of preparing the
report.
2.1. Condition of materialization
Each of the attributes is of a gradual nature that can be associated with greater or lesser certainty
and, together, they provide an idea of the likelihood of a project’s materialization, defined as base,
probable, possible or potential, associated with the specific attributes set out in Table 20.
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Table 20: Conditions of materialization of a project
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environmental permits
Start-up date
BASE Any Implementation RCA approved Within the period
PROBABLE
Any Implementation suspended
RCA approved or before courts
Within the period
Any Feasibility RCA approved Within the period
Replacement or expansion
Feasibility EIA or DIA submitted to SEA
Within the period
POSSIBLE
Replacement or expansion
Feasibility suspended EIA or DIA submitted to SEA
Within the period
Replacement or expansion
Feasibility EIA or DIA not submitted Within the period
New Feasibility EIA or DIA submitted to SEA or not submitted
Within the period
Any Feasibility RCA approved After the period
Replacement or expansion
Feasibility EIA or DIA submitted to SEA or not submitted
After the period
POTENTIAL
Any Feasibility suspended Any After the period
New Feasibility EIA or DIA submitted to SEA or not submitted
After the period
Any Prefeasibility Any Any
Source: Calculated by COCHILCO.
In Table 20, “within the period” indicates that a project will be materialized in 2018-2022 and “after
the period” that it would be materialized in the subsequent five years or, in other words, 2023-2027.
A project’s attributes are related to its type, stage of advance, its situation as regards environmental
permits and its estimated start-up date, which are defined as explained below.
2.2. Type of project
This attribute provides information about the certainty or otherwise of a project’s materialization
since it is related to the company’s strategic purpose and the project’s complexity. The types of
project are:
a) Replacement project. These are brownfield projects in which the objective is to maintain the production capacity of an existing operation by developing new areas of it as a means of addressing a drop in ore grades and/or the exhaustion of sectors already being worked. These projects extend the useful life of a mine and its installations.
b) Expansion project. These brownfield projects seek to increase a mine’s operational capacity in order to raise its scale of production and reduce unit costs, particularly in the face of a drop in ore grades.
c) New projects. These greenfield projects involve the construction of a new mine, with the need to obtain environmental and sector permits, develop infrastructure and establish the
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 40
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company in a new location. This category also includes brownfield projects at existing operations that imply a complete change of process (for example, from leaching to concentration) since they are virtually equivalent to the development of a new mine.
2.3. Stage of advance
As a project advances, certainty about its materialization also increases. Projects are, therefore,
classified in this report according to their stage of advance:
a) Implementation. In these projects, the investment has been approved and the necessary permits for their development have been obtained and they have reached a phase between detailed engineering, construction and ramp-up.
b) Feasibility study. This category includes those projects at a stage between having begun to prepare feasibility studies and submissions for environmental permits - an Environmental Impact Study (EIA) or an Environmental Impact Declaration (DIA) - and having completed this stage, but without a final decision on the investment having been taken.
c) Prefeasibility study. Projects included in this category are at a stage between the start of prefeasibility studies and a decision to move on to the next stage.
Most projects follow their normal course, barring the modifications that may be introduced.
However, a project may also be suspended for internal or external reasons. In some cases, a project
that has been suspended may have to return to an earlier stage to repeat studies in order to resolve
questions raised from within the company or externally.
2.4. Environmental permits (SEA)
All projects must obtain a Resolution of Environmental Approval (RCA) from the Environmental
Evaluation Service (SEA). This is awarded only after an exhaustive technical-administrative process
that involves citizen participation and during which the project’s Environmental Impact Study (EIA)
or Environmental Impact Declaration (DIA) is analyzed. Here, projects are classified in three stages
from greater to lesser certainty:
a) RCA approved b) EIA or DIA submitted c) EIA or DIA not submitted.
2.5. Start-up date
The reliability of the information about a project also increases as the date of its start of operation
approaches. The following timeframes are used, from greater to lesser certainty:
a) Within the period: Date within the period of analysis or, in other words, within the five-year period
b) Long term: Date after the period of analysis or, in other words, outside the five-year period.
Investment in the Chilean mining industry – Portfolio of projects, 2018-2027 41
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3. Investment by Codelco and sources of information
The information presented for Codelco’s projects is based on the public information available on
the company’s website and/or in presentations by its authorities, complemented principally by the
information included in its Business and Development Plan and other official company information.
It should be understood only as a forecasting tool and in no way represents a commitment on the
part of the public bodies that will intervene in the evaluation of the investment projects that may
or may not be included in this forecast.
The Codelco investments included in the portfolio are those envisaged in the company’s 2018
Business and Development Plan (PND 2018), justified as development projects or in order to
increase the information needed for future developments.
Development projects are directly related to the future production capacity of Codelco’s different
divisions and must comply with the corresponding profitability norms for their approval. They
include:
a) Structural projects. These development projects are designed to allow the company to take full advantage of its mineral resources and as the foundations for the company’s long-term development. This report provides explicit information about the characteristics of each of these projects and the investment involved in their implementation stage.
b) Other development projects. Codelco’s investment portfolio includes a number of projects with shorter-term objectives whose implementation is essential for the operational continuity of its divisions, complementing the company’s plans for its structural projects. This report provides an overall investment figure for this group of projects.
c) Information projects. The purpose of these projects is to obtain new information that is relevant for the company’s development. They are, however, not identified as individual projects. This category includes studies for future development projects (prefeasibility, feasibility, environmental impact studies, etc.) and investment in basic and generative exploration and R&D. Given the diversity of objectives involved, only an overall figure for investment in these projects is provided.
d) Smelting and Refining Area (FURE) projects. These projects involve environmental and operational improvements at Codelco’s smelting-refinery complexes in order to comply with new environmental regulation in force as from 2018.
e) Tailings dams. This category comprises projects to improve the infrastructure of the tailings dams of Codelco’s different divisions.
The projects considered in this report do not include investments under the 2018 Business and
Development Plan that have other objectives such as the replacement of equipment, the repair of
installations and projects related to decontamination, workplace safety and welfare, although they
also require an Investment Project Report (API). They are excluded for the sake of comparability
with private mining companies for which information of this type is not available.
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Those Codelco investments that, because of their nature, do not require an API are also excluded as
outside the scope of this report. However, Codelco’s investments in companies to build
metallurgical plants for processing byproducts as a means of obtaining end products of greater value
are included. In the portfolio, these do not appear as part of Codelco’s investments but as
“Metallurgical Plants” in copper mining.
4. Private-sector investment and sources of information
Information about the projects of private mining companies is taken principally from the
announcements they make through different media (their own websites, newspapers, articles in
specialized magazines, etc.) and their submissions to the Environmental Evaluation Service (SEA).
The portfolio includes all those projects already under construction. In the case of projects still being
studied, their stage of advance was reviewed and the investment forecast, start-up date and
estimated output were updated in the light of the most recent public information available.
This implied at least the following updates:
a) Identification of owners as a result of a change of ownership
b) Production capacity and types of product
c) Amount of investment, start-up date and timeline for implementation
d) Inclusion of new projects
e) Elimination of projects that had recently started operation
f) New requirements such as the use of seawater, either directly or through desalination.
In the case of the amount of the investment, it is assumed that this corresponds principally to the
implementation stage, without ruling out that some projects may include earlier investments during
their study phases.
Given that generally only an overall investment figure and the expected start-up date are known,
the annual distribution of the investment is estimated assuming a tentative timeline for a project’s
development, based principally on presentations to the Environmental Evaluation Service (SEA) or
empirical estimates of timelines for similar projects.
In the case of projects for which a precise start-up date was not available in public information,
COCHILCO estimated this on the basis of the context of the information available. This does not
imply any commitment on the part of the company in question.
5. Methodological criteria for estimating start-up date
Different internal and/or external circumstances can affect a project’s development. External
factors include the need to secure electricity supply at less than current prices, to improve the
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project’s environmental impact study and/or obtain permits for the construction of the necessary
infrastructure.
Internal factors include the project’s alignment with the company’s overall strategy, securing
financing, the need to improve the cost indicators for the investment and/or operation as
determined by the project’s engineering studies.
In the absence of public information about a project’s start-up date, COCHILCO applied the following
methodological criteria:
a) A year’s delay is incorporated if a project is affected only by external factors,
notwithstanding the possibility that the company reviews a project’s feasibility study in
order to resolve pending issues, which could imply minor modifications to the study.
b) A delay of two years is incorporated if a reformulation of a project’s prefeasibility or
feasibility study is required since this is the time typically required for studies of this type.
If insufficient information was available to estimate a clear start-up date, the project was excluded
from the portfolio as a “project under restructuring”.
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APPENDIX 2: Description of investment projects in copper mining
1. State copper mining
1.1. Codelco structural projects - www.codelco.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2024
RT SULFIDES PHASE II
(Radomiro Tomic Div.)
Resources: 37,372 Mt @ 0.41% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 115 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$2,154.
Use of seawater: Supply through Codelco'sNorth District Desalination Plant project, dueto be completed in 2021.
Job creation: 12,100 jobs in constructionstage and 2,200 when operational.
Current status: Redesign of project as a single115-ktpd module, instead of two 100-ktpdmodules.
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Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit
Start-up
BASE Replacement Implementation EIA approved 2023
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Replacement Implementation EIA approved 2019
NEW MINE LEVEL
(El Teniente Div.)
Resources: 14,923 Mt @ 0.56% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 137 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$3,926.
Use of seawater: Not applicable.
Job creation: 2,400 jobs in construction stageand 2,650 when operational.
Current status: Start of Recursos Norteproject in 2020, with production of 30 ktpdwhen in full operation. Start-up of New MineLevel project in 2023.
CHUQUICAMATA SUBTERRÁNEA
(Chuquicamata Div.)
Resources: 14,652 Mt @ 0.44% Cu.
Treatment capacity: Up to 140 ktpd of sulfide mineral, achievable in 2025.
Estimated investment: MMUS$5,554.
Use of seawater: Not applicable.
Job creation: 3,736 jobs in construction stageand a maximum of 4,856 when operational.
Current status: Tchitack electricity substationto supply project built and awaiting start-up;as of first half of 2018, 105 km of tunnels alsobuilt.
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Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POTENTIAL Expansion Prefeasibility Without EIA 2026
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Replacement Implementation EIA approved 2021
ANDINA EXPANSION
(Andina Div.)
Resources: 22,271 Mt @ 0.62% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 56 ktpd of sulfidemineral additional to current 94 ktpd.
Estimated investment: MMUS$2,725.
Use of seawater: Not applicable.
Job creation: Information not available.
Current status: Awaiting start of feasibilitystudy in 2018. Delayed until 2026 to continuestudies of best way to take advantage ofproject's resources.
MINE-PLANT TRANSPORT
(Andina Div.)
Resources: Not applicable.
Treatment capacity: Not applicable.
Estimated investment: MMUS$1,321.
Use of seawater: Not applicable.
Job creation: Average of 200 jobs inconstruction stage and average of 60 whenoperational.
Current status: Underground work related toexcavation of mineral distribution center inCordillera Plant began in 2017; excavation ofHaulage III tunnel and halls - crushing,regenerative and electricity room - continueson schedule.
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Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POTENTIAL New Prefeasibility Without EIA 2021
RAJO INCA
( Salvador Div.)
Resources: 3,564 Mt @ 0.42% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 37 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$817.
Use of seawater: Not applicable.
Job creation: Approximately 2,000 jobs inconstruction stage and 400 when operational.
Current status: Information from the completed prefeasibility study being updated, including oxide resources, with view to starting feasibility study.
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2. Large-scale private copper mining sector
2.1. Antofagasta Minerals - www.antofagasta.co.uk
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2022
CENTINELA DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT -ENCUENTRO SULFIDES AND ESPERANZA SUR
(Minera Centinela)
Resources: 3,178 Mt @ 0.38% Cu; 0.011%Mo; 0.12 gpt Au (sulfides); 308 Mt @ 0.38%Cu (oxides).
Treatment capacity: 95 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$4,350.
Use of seawater: From exising Esperanzaplant.
Job creation: 9,000 jobs in construction stageand 2,890 when operational.
Current status: Project includes operationalcontinuity of oxides line.
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Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE Expansion Feasibility EIA approved 2020
POSSIBLE Expansion Feasibility Without EIA 2022
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE Replacement Feasibility EIA submitted 2022
LOS PELAMBRES MARGINAL EXPANSION -PHASES I AND II
(Minera Los Pelambres)
Resources: 4,831 Mt @ 0.48% Cu; 0.015%Mo; 0.057 gpt Au.
Treatment capacity: +20 ktpd in Phase I and+15 ktpd in Phase II of sulfide mineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$1,050 inPhase I and MMUS$500 in Phase II(estimated).
Use of seawater: 450-l/s desalination plantand pumping system.
Job creation: 2,300 jobs in construction stageand 241 when operational.
Current status: Update of investment inPhase I underway. Desalination plant withapproximate investment of MMUS$520.
ZALDÍVAR OPERATIONAL CONTINUITY
(Cía. Minera Zaldívar)
Resources: 613 Mt @ 0.48% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 260 ktpd.
Estimated investment: MMUS$100.
Use of seawater: Does not use.
Job creation: 476 jobs in construction stageand 1,700 when operational.
Current status: EIA submitted in June 2018,with view to extending life of mine to 2031.
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2.2. BHP - www.bhp.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE New Implementation EIA approved 2020
SPENCE GROWTH OPTION
(Pampa Norte)
Resources: 2,440 Mt @ 0.43% Cu; 0.012%Mo.
Treatment capacity: 95-100 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$3,300(includes MMUS$800 for desalination plant).
Use of seawater: 800-l/s desalination plant,expandable to 1,600 l/s.
Job creation: 1,380 and 1,550 jobs inconstruction stage and 26 and 220 whenoperational for desalination plant and mine,respectively.
Current status: Under construction, withstart-up scheduled for mid-2020.
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2.3. Capstone Mining - www.capstonemining.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2022
SANTO DOMINGO
(Santo Domingo SCM)
Resources: 572 Mt @ 0.30% Cu; 25.6% Fe;0.039 gpt Au.
Treatment capacity: 70 ktpd
Estimated investment: MMUS$1,700 (to beupdated).
Use of seawater: 12.5-l/s desalination plant(2.5 l/s for washing concentrate andconsumption of workforce and 10 l/s forDiego de Almagro community) and 112-kmpipeline with nominal flow of 389 l/s.
Job creation: 4,050 jobs in construction stageand 1,165 when operational.
Current status: Closing potential associationwith third parties for project's development,which would imply update of amount ofinvestment.
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2.4. Doña Inés de Collahuasi - www.collahuasi.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE Expansion Feasibility EIA approved 2019
COMPLEMENTARY INSTALLATIONS TO 170 KTPDCOLLAHUASI
(Cía. Minera Doña Inés de Collahuasi)
Resources: 6,630 Mt @ 0.72% Cu; 0.011%Mo.
Treatment capacity: 35 ktpd.
Estimated investment: MMUS$302.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 599 jobs in constructionstage; when operational, no change incurrent workforce.
Current status: EIA submitted inSeptember 2017 and approved atbeginning of 2018. Seeking additionalpermits with view to starting definitiveconstruction by end-2018 at latest.
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2.5. Freeport McMoRan - www.fcx.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POTENTIAL New Feasibility Without EIA 2026
EL ABRA CONCENTRATORFORMERLY EL ABRA MILL
(CCM El Abra)
Resources: 1,999 Mt @ 0.45% Cu; 0.020 gptAu; 0.010% Mo; 1.4 gpt Ag.
Treatment capacity: 150 ktpd.
Estimated investment: MMUS$5,000.
Use of seawater: Envisages a desalinationproject of approximately 800 l/s andpumping system.
Job creation: Approximately 4,000 jobs inconstruction stage and 1,200 whenoperational.
Current status: The company is currently inthe process of socialization of project andpreparation of environmental baseline;both the investment and start-up date areestimated based on previous informationfor the project.
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2.6. Goldcorp / Teck - www.nuevaunion.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POTENTIAL New Feasibility Without EIA 2023
POTENTIAL New Feasibility Without EIA 2026*
(*) Corresponds to start-up of Phase II of the project; Phase III would be implemented gradually through to 2041.
NUEVAUNIÓN
PHASES I, II AND III
(NuevaUnión SpA)
Resources: 1,481.6 Mt @ 0.388% Cu; 0.171gpt Au; 0.009% Mo.
Treatment capacity: 104 ktpd (Phase I), 12ktpd (Phase II) and 92 ktpd (Phase III) ofsulfide mineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$3,500 inPhase I; MMUS$3,700 in Phases II and III.
Use of seawater: Envisages a seawaterdesalination project of around 700 l/s andpumping system.
Job creation: 4,000 jobs in construction stageand 2,600 when operational.
Current status: Starting feasibility study inmid-September 2018; currently preparing theenvironmental baseline for 3 phases forpresentation of EIA in the medium term.
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2.7. KGHM - www.sgscm.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE Expansion Feasibility EIA approved 2022
SIERRA GORDA EXPANSION 230 KTPD
(Sierra Gorda SCM)
Resources: 1,607 Mt @ 0.40% Cu; 0.060 gptAu; 0.020% Mo.
Treatment capacity: +40 ktpd.
Estimated investment: MMUS$2,000.
Use of seawater: Mantains current supply ofseawater and desalinated water.
Job creation: 6,000 jobs in construction stage and 2,900 when operational.
Current status: The project not only seeks toexpand the approved capacity of the originalproject (190 ktpd) and process oxidizedresources in stock (additional 55 kt fine Cu)but also to adjust the operation of the tailingsdam to ensure its environmentalsustainability as well as its stability andoperational continuity and to change thedestination of part or all of the concentrate toMejillones Bay. EIA approved at end of August2018 with official communication to thecompany pending.
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2.8. Lundin Mining - www.sgscm.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Replacement Implementation EIA approved 2018
CANDELARIA 2030
(CCM Candelaria)
Resources: 268 Mt @ 0.86% Cu; 0.203 gpt Au;2.416 gpt Ag.
Treatment capacity: +9.8 ktpd to +24.2 ktpdof sulfide mineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$460.
Use of seawater: New 500-l/s aqueduct,parallel to the existing one and with samecharacteristics, to provide the operation withdesalinated water.
Job creation: 970 jobs in construction stageand 2,600 when operational.
Current status: Project poised to start fulloperation.
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2.9. Mantos Copper
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2021
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Expansion Implementation EIA approved 2020
MANTOVERDE DEVELOPMENT
Resources: 153 Mt @ 0.45% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 35.6 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$832.
Use of seawater: Considers increase of 260l/s in consumption from existing desalinationplant (current capacity of 380 l/s andconsumption of 120 l/s).
Job creation: 1,500 jobs in construction stageand 1,512 when operational.
Estado actual: EIA approved in mid-2018 andproject poised to start construction.
MANTOS BLANCOS CONC. DE-BOTTLE
Resources: 456.7 Mt @ 0.53% Cu.
Treatment capacity: +8 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$181.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 566 jobs in construction stageand 106 when operational.
Current status: EIA approved andconstruction underway to start ramp-up atend-2019.
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2.10. Teck - www.teck.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2022
QUEBRADA BLANCA PHASE II - HYPOGENE PROJECT
(Cía. Minera Teck Quebrada Blanca)
Resources: 1,324 Mt @ 0.38% Cu; 0.016%Mo.
Treatment capacity: 135 ktpd of sulfides.
Estimated investment: MMUS$4,700.
Use of seawater: Envisages a seawaterdesalination plant in Punta Patache Port, witha pumping system with a 170-km pipeline andestimated flow of 1,300 l/s.
Job creation: Average of 7,000 and maximumof 9,200 jobs in construction stage andaverage of 1,787 and maximum of 2,053when operational.
Current status: The project's EIA wasapproved at end-July 2018 and the companyestimates that investment decision will betaken and construction start at end-November 2018, with start-up in mid-2022.
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3. Medium-scale copper mining sector
3.1. Central Asia Metals PLC - www.centralasiametals.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA submitted 2019
PLAYA VERDE
(Copper Bay Chile)
Resources: 53.4 Mt @ 0.24% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 13.5 ktpd.
Estimated investment: MMUS$95.
Use of seawater: Use of seawater fromdredging of tailings and a 12.5-l/s reverseosmosis plant.
Job creation: Maximum of 317 jobs inconstruction stage and of 96 whenoperational.
Current status: The project consists indredging to remove old tailings deposited onthe Playa Grande beach in Chañaral,processing them in a metallurgical plant toextract copper and produce cathodes andconcentrate (7.08 ktpy and 1.56 ktpy,respectively) and restore the beach damagedby landslides and the deposit of tailings formore than 40 years.
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3.2. COPEC - www.empresascopec.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2020
DIEGO DE ALMAGRO
(Cía. Minera Sierra Norte)
Resources: 85 Mt @ 0.60% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 24 ktpd of sulfidemineral and 2 ktpd of oxide mineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$597.
Use of seawater: Desalination plant locatednear the concentrator, with a flow of 1,865m3/day, to supply desalinated water for minorprocesses; most consumption will be in theform of non-desalinated seawater.
Job creation: Maximum of 595 jobs inconstruction stage and of 178 whenoperational.
Current status: Reactivation of the project atthe beginning of 2018 suggests start-up inaround 2020.
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3.3. Hot Chili - www.hotchili.net.au
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POTENTIAL New Prefeasibility Without EIA 2021
3.4. Pucobre - www.pucobre.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PRODUCTORA
(Soc. Minera El Águila)
Resources: 288 Mt @ 0.26% Cu; 0.057 gpt Au;0.007% Mo.
Treatment capacity: 30 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$725.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: Information not available.
Current status: Company is continuing withexploration campaigns to update the project'sresources.
EL ESPINO Resources: 230.3 Mt @ 0.45% Cu; 0.191 gptAu.
Treatment capacity: 20 ktpd of sulfidemineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$624.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 2,900 jobs in construction stageand 700 when operational.
Current status: Engineeering studies beingupdated, ruling out the oxides line for themoment.
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POSSIBLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2022
4. Metallurgical plants
4.1. Ecometales - www.ecometales.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2020
LEACHING OF CONCENTRATE
Resources: Not applicable.
Treatment capacity: 200 ktpy of concentrate.
Estimated investment: MMUS$370.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 378 jobs in construction stageand 120 when operational.
Current status: Construction of a high-pressure copper concentrate leaching plant toremove impurities, principally arsenic, andgenerate stable waste; project awaitinginvestment decision after obtaining RCA atbeginning of August 2017.
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4.2. ENAMI – www.enami.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE Expansion Feasibility Without EIA 2022
NUEVA PAIPOTE -Stages 1 and 2
(Hernán Videla Lira Smelter)
Resources: Not applicable.
Treatment capacity: 200 ktpy of concentrate.
Estimated investment: MMUS$646
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: Information not available.
Current status: The project to modernize thesmelter has been divided into 2 stages. Stage1 corresponds to a transition project tocomply with Supreme Decree 28 and isdesigned to cover the period between 2018and 2021, the estimated start-up date ofStage 2. The principal modernization project(Stage 2) consists in the implementation ofChinese BBR-BCC fusion-conversiontechnology. ENAMI is currently analyzingStage 2 without having taken the investmentdecision.
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4.3. Molymet – www.molymet.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE New Implementation EIA approved 2018
MOLYNOR EXPANSION
(Molynor)
Resources: Not applicable.
Treatment capacity: +40 ktpy of molybdenumconcentrate.
Estimated investment: MMUS$240.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: Between 150 and 300 jobs inconstruction stage and 300 when operational.
Current status: Under construction with start-up at end-2018.
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APPENDIX 3: Description of investment projects in gold and silver mining
1. Rio2 Limited - www.rio2.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE New Feasibility Without EIA 2021
CERRO MARICUNGA
Resources: 252 Mt @ 0.434 gpt Au.
Treatment capacity: 40-80 ktpd of oxidemineral for cyanidation.
Estimated investment: MMUS$587.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 200 jobs in construction stageand 60 when operational.
Current status: Project owner was acquiredby Rio2, which would accelerate the project'sdevelopment.
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2. Gold Fields – www.goldfields.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE New Feasibility EIA submitted 2021
SALARES NORTE Resources: 23.3 Mt @ 4.89 gpt Au; 66.03 gpt Ag.
Treatment capacity: 5.5 ktpd of oxide mineral for cyanidation.
Estimated investment: MMUS$1,000.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 1,700 jobs in construction stageand 600 when operational.
Current status: EIA submitted in July 2018,indicating that project consists in open-pitmining of gold and silver mineral, itsprocessing with a crushing system, a millingsystem, extraction of the mineral using ahybrid system of conventional cynaideleaching, Merrill-Crowe and carbon in pulp torecover the gold and silver and deposit infiltered tailings. Useful life of 13 years withestimated output of 7,860 kg of gold in theform of doré.
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3. Kingsgate Consolidate Ltd. - www.kingsgate.com.au
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE New Feasibility EIA submitted 2021
NUEVA ESPERANZA -ARQUEROS
Resources: 39.4 Mt @ 0.39 gpt Au; 66 gpt Ag.
Treatment capacity: 8 ktpd of oxide mineral for cyanidation.
Estimated investment: MMUS$250.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 800 jobs in construction stageand 200 when operational.
Current status: EIA submitted in July 2018,which would replace DIA submitted in July2017 on which no decision issued. The EIA,entitled "Update of Arqueros", seeks tointegrate Chimberos and Teterita deposits,along with modifications to waste dump,mineral stockpiling areas, camps, location ofprimary crusher and conveyor belts,processing plant and technological change indisposal of the leaching gravel, using filteringrather than thickeners. The amount of theinvestment remains unchanged.
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4. Kinross - www.kinross.com
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE Replacement Feasibility EIA approved 2022
LA COIPA PHASE 7
Resources: 17.28 Mt @ 1.85 gpt Au; 59.15 gpt Ag.
Treatment capacity: 15 ktpd of oxide mineral for cyanidation.
.Estimated investment: MMUS$200.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 600 jobs in construction stageand 929 when operational.
Current status: Pompeya and Catalina depositsunder analysis, apart from so-called Purén 2. Atpresent, working on feasibility study scheduledfor completion in mid-2019 before startingconstruction once the investment cost hasbeen updated and approved by investors. Inparallel, start of studies for reactivation of LoboMarte, once useful life of La Coipa Phase 7 endsin around 2030.
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APPENDIX 4: Description of investment projects in iron mining
1. Admiralty Resources
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE New Implementation EIA approved 2019
MARIPOSA Resources: 66.6 Mt @ 33.1% Fe.
Treatment capacity: 5.6 ktpd of iron mineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$70.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 99 jobs in construction stageand 265 when operational.
Current status: The project, which seeks tomine minerals and produce iron concentrateat a maximum rate of 771,000 tpy duringapproximately 18 years, including transport toPunta Totoralillo Port, was submitted to SEAin May 2017. Under construction with start-up in mid-2019.
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2. Andes Iron - www.conocedominga.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POTENTIAL New Feasibility Without EIA 2023
DOMINGA Resources: 2,082 Mt @ 23.3% FeT; 0.07% Cu.
Treatment capacity: 95 ktpd of mineral.
Estimated investment: MMUS$2,888.
Use of seawater: 450-l/s desalination plant inTotoralillo Norte sector.
Job creation: 9,800 jobs in construction stageand 1,450 when operational.
Current status: This mining-port project was rejected in appeal to Committee of Ministers and is currently planning to submit a new EIA so start-up not estimated to be before 2023.
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APPENDIX 5: Description of investment projects in industrial minerals
1. Albemarle
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Expansion Implementation EIA approved 2019
LA NEGRA PLANT EXPANSION -PHASE 3
Resources: Information not available.
Production capacity: +42.7 ktpy of lithiumcarbonate.
Estimated investment: MMUS$300.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 690 jobs in construction stageand 225 when operational.
Current status: Obtained environmentalapproval in July 2017 and under constructionwith start-up scheduled for end-2019.
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2. SQM S.A. - www.sqm.cl
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
PROBABLE New Feasibility EIA approved 2019
ORCOMA Resources: Information not available.
Treatment/production: 11 Mtpy of caliche toproduce 2,500 tpy of iodine and 320,325 tpyof salts rich in nitrates.
Estimated investment: MMUS$230.
Use of seawater: 200 l/s of non-desalinatedseawater through withdrawal pipe located inCaleta Buenara sector.
Job creation: 600-950 jobs in constructionstage and 450 when operational.
Current status: Has obtained environmentalapproval and is awaiting start of construction,with process of obtaining permits underway.Start-up at end-2019.
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Comisión Chilena del Cobre
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Replacement Implementation EIA approved 2019
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
BASE Expansion Implementation EIA approved 2020
PEDRO DE VALDIVIA DISSOLUTION AND REFINING PLANT
(SQM Nitratos S.A.)
Resources: Information not available.
Production capacity: 420,000 tpy of refinedsolar-quality nitrates.
Estimated investment: MMUS$140.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 300 jobs in construction stageand 40 when operational.
Current status: EIA approved andconstruction underway.
SALAR DEL CARMEN EXPANSION
(SQM Salar S.A.)
Resources: Information not available.
Production capacity: Lithium carbonate: +10ktpy (Phase I) and +12 ktpy (Phase II); lithiumhydroxide: +10 ktpy (Phase I) and 2 newplants of +8 ktpy (Phases II and III).
Estimated investment: MMUS$180.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 450 jobs in construction stageand 60 when operational.
Current status: EIA approved andconstruction underway.
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Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE Expansion Feasibility EIA submitted 2022
LITHIUM CARBONATE EXPANSION 180 KTPY
(SQM Salar S.A.)
Resources: Information not available.
Production capacity: +110 ktpy of lithiumcarbonate.
Estimated investment: MMUS$450.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 600 jobs in construction stageand 240 when operational.
Current status: EIA submitted and awaitingapproval. Project complements the Salar delCarmen Expansion project which already hasenvironmental approval and is underconstruction.
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3. SIMCO SpA
Condition Type of project Stage of advance Environ. permit Start-up
POSSIBLE New Feasibility EIA submitted 2020
MARICUNGA SALTS PRODUCTION
Resources: Information not available.
Production capacity: 5,700 tons of lithiumcarbonate, 9,100 tons of lithium hydroxideand 38,900 tons of potassium chloride.
Estimated investment: MMUS$350.
Use of seawater: Not considered.
Job creation: 271 jobs in construction stageand 205 when operational.
Current status: Consists in the exploitation offresh brine from the northeast sector of theMaricunga Salt Flat at an extraction rate of275 l/s; processing of brine using solarevaporation and subsequent precipitation in alithium carbonate plant, using solventextraction to produce lithium hydroxide andpotassium chloride as byproducts. Start-upscheduled for 2020.
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Comisión Chilena del Cobre
APPENDIX 6: Units of measurement and abbreviations
Weight and measurement
g Gram
kg Kilogram
t Metric ton
kt Thousands of metric tons
Mt Millions of metric tons
oz Troy ounce
koz Thousands of troy ounces
Moz Millions of troy ounces
lb Pound
Mlb Millions of pounds
m Meter
km Kilometer
m2 Square meter
m3 Cubic meter
Chemical and mineral elements
Ag Silver
Au Gold
Cu Copper
Cu cath. Copper cathodes
Cu conc. Copper content in concentrate
CuEq Copper equivalent
Fe Iron
Fsp Feldspar
H3BO3 Boric acid
H2SO4 Sulfuric acid
KCl Potassium chloride
KNO3 Potassium nitrate
LiCl Lithium chloride
NaNO3 Sodium nitrate
Mo Molybdenum
TiO2 Titanium dioxide (rutile)
Concentrations and production rates
gpt Grams per ton
ppm Parts per million
oz/y Troy ounces per year
koz/y Thousands of troy ounces per year
Moz/y Millions of troy ounces per year
kg/y Kilograms per year
tph Metric tons per hour
tpd Metric tons per day
tpm Metric tons per month
tpy Metric tons per year
ktpy Thousands of metric tons per year
Mtpy Millions of metric tons per year
Processes and inputs
g/L Grams per liter
kg/L Kilograms per liter
l/s Liters per second
l/m Liters per month
kV Kilovolt
kVA Kilovolt-ampere
GWh Gigawatt-hour
MWh Megawatt-hour
Production processes
Flot Flotation
Lix Leaching
SX Solvent extraction
EW Electrowinning
Currencies and prices
US$ US dollar
MUS$ Thousands of US dollars
MMUS$ Millions of US dollars
US$/lb Dollars per pound
cUS$/lb Cents of the dollar per pound
US$/oz Dollars per troy ounce
Geographical abbreviations
m.a.s.l. Meters above sea level
UTM Universal Transversal Mercator
Types of company
Cía. Company
Inc. Incorporated
Int. International
Ltda. Limited
Ltd. Limited
S.A. Listed company
SCM Contractual mining society
CCM Contractual mining company
Others
Ind. Industrial
Min. Mineral
RCA Resolution of Environmental Approval
DIA Environmental Impact Declaration
EIA Environmental Impact Study
SAG Semi-autogenous
API Investment Project Report
PND Business and Development Plan
Comisión Chilena del Cobre
This report was prepared by the Research and Public Policy Department
Cristian Cifuentes González
Strategy and Public Policy Analyst
Jorge Cantallopts Araya
Director of Research and Public Policy
September 2018