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Page 1: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

1 Session 6 – Sokalsky

1

International Mine Production LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012

Hong Kong | November 2012

2

Certain information contained or incorporated by reference in this presentation, including any information as to our strategy, project plans or future financial or operating performance, constitutes "forward-looking statements". All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "contemplate", "target", "plan", "intend", "continue", "budget", "estimate", "may", "will", "schedule" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by the company, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Known and unknown factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the market and forward price of gold and copper or certain other commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel and electricity); the impact of global liquidity and credit availability on the timing of cash flows and the values of assets and liabilities based on projected future cash flows; fluctuations in the currency markets (such as Canadian and Australian dollars, Chilean and Argentinean peso, British pound, Peruvian sol, Zambian kwacha and Papua New Guinean kina versus US dollar); changes in US dollar interest rates that could impact the mark-to-market value of outstanding derivative instruments and ongoing payments/receipts under interest rate swaps and variable rate debt obligations; risks arising from holding derivative instruments (such as credit risk, market liquidity risk and mark-to-market risk); changes in national and local government legislation, taxation, controls, regulations and political or economic developments in Canada, the United States, Dominican Republic, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Tanzania, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, Pakistan or Barbados or other countries in which we do or may carry on business in the future; acts of war, terrorism, sabotage and civil disturbances; business opportunities that may be presented to, or pursued by, the company; our ability to successfully integrate acquisitions; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or development activities; employee relations; availability and increased costs associated with mining inputs; increased costs and technical challenges associated with the construction of capital projects; inflation; litigation; the speculative nature of exploration and development, including the risks of obtaining necessary licenses and permits; diminishing quantities or reserve grades; adverse changes in our credit rating; contests over title to properties, particularly title to undeveloped properties; and the organization of our previously held African gold operations and properties under a separate listed company. In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the business of exploration, development and mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold bullion or copper cathode losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance, or inability to obtain insurance, to cover these risks). Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can affect our actual results and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, us. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. All of the forward-looking statements made in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements. Specific reference is made to the most recent Form 40-F/Annual Information Form on file with the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities for a discussion of some of the factors underlying forward-looking statements. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by applicable law.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Page 2: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

2 Session 6 – Sokalsky

3

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mine Supply Moz

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Mine Supply Inelasticity

Supply has not kept pace with the rising gold price

Production declines in mature areas

Reserve replacement challenges

Increasing cash costs and capital costs

Political risk

Higher environmental standards

Sources: Thomson Reuters GFMS, Bloomberg

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

$1,800

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mo

z

US

$/

Mo

z

US

$/

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

Gold Price US$/oz

4

Scarcity of Large Operations

Source: Metals Economics Group

Total Global Gold Mines by Size (2011 gold production)

156 mines >100,000 ounces

21 mines >500,000 ounces

6 mines >1,000,000 ounces

Page 3: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

3 Session 6 – Sokalsky

5

Changing of the Guard

Moz 2004

11.0 South Africa

8.4 United States

8.3 Australia

7.0 China

5.9 Russia

Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

2011 Moz

China 11.9

Australia 8.3

United States 7.5

Russia 6.8

South Africa 6.4

Annual Gold Production

6

The bar is getting higher

Global Exploration Trends

Focus on big deposits

Discovery rates: down

Supergiants: rare

Mine maturity: up

Discovery costs: up

Development time: up

Technical risk: up

Page 4: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

4 Session 6 – Sokalsky

7

Endowment (Moz)(1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Discovery Year

Declining Discovery Rates

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Go

ld a

nd

Co

pp

er-G

old

Exp

lora

tio

n S

pen

din

g (U

S$M

)

End

ow

men

t (M

oz)

Discovery Year

Gold and copper-gold 3 year average

Sources: Metals Economics Group, Intierra and Barrick

Exploration spending

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Gold

Explo

ration S

pendin

g (

US$M

)

Endow

ment (M

oz)

Discovery Year

Gold Exploration Spending (US$B)

0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

8

Declining Supergiant Discoveries

Number of Gold Discoveries Per Decade Over 20Moz (Supergiant)

18

4

1 1

3 3

5 6

14

11

5

1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

? Source: Barrick

Page 5: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

5 Session 6 – Sokalsky

9

Declining Discoveries

4

2

3

4

3

4 4

5

3

1

4

1

2

3

1

4

6

1 1

3

1

7

2

4

7

6 5

1

2

3

4

1

2 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Not Operating Operating

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Discovery Year

Number of Gold Discoveries Per Year Over 5Moz

Sources: Intierra, Barrick

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Declining Grades

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual G

old Price (U

S$/oz)

Wei

ghte

d-av

erag

e G

old

Gra

de (

g/m

t)

Weighted-average Headgrade Gold Price

© Metals Economics Group, 2012

Gold Price

Source: Metals Economics Group

Annual Gold Price

Weighted Avg. Head Grade

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$/oz

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

g/mt

22%

Page 6: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

6 Session 6 – Sokalsky

11

Industry Cash Costs

Higher gold prices and lower cutoff grades have contributed to cash cost escalation

$/oz $/oz

250

350

450

550

650

750

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

Q4 Q4 Q4

2005 2006 2007 2008

Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4

2009 2010 2011 2012

2006

+26%

+23%

2007

+28%

+30%

2008

+1%

+7%

2009

+38%

+12%

2010

+24%

+16%

2011

+23%

+12%

2012

-5%

+12%

Total for the period Q4 2005 – Q2 2012

Gold Price +270% Cash Costs +187%

Q2

250

350

450

550

650

750

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

Q4-05

Q1-06

Q2-06

Q3-06

Q4-06

Q1-07

Q2-07

Q3-07

Q4-07

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

12

Cash Cost Inflation

Gold Non-Gold

2.3 2.3

Gold Non-Gold

4.3 4.3

Gold Non-Gold

2.8 2.8

Gold Non-Gold

3.5 2.0

Gold Non-Gold

1.0 1.0

Gold Non-Gold

1.4 1.5

Gold Non-Gold

~16.0 ~14.5

CPI

Mine Site factor costs

USD decline

Grade decline

Recovery decline

Mine conditions decline

Gold Non-Gold

9.7 9.7

Gold Non-Gold

6.0 4.6

Factor price inflation

Geological inflation

Total cost inflation nominal

Source: McKinsey Mining Practice

Compound Annual Growth Rate 2001-2011 (percent)

Page 7: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

7 Session 6 – Sokalsky

13

Production Costs

Column1

Wages (includingcontract)

Energy

OtherConsumables

Maitenance andOther

~40% Wages

(including contract)

~25% Other

Consumables

~15% Energy

~20% Maintenance

(and other)

14

Laborers and related workers

Semiskilled workers

Trades persons

Professionals

Technicians

Managers and administrators

Sources: McKinsey Analysis, Minerals Council of Australia

Increasing Labor Scarcity

Skilled Labor - Supply and Demand Australian minerals sector CAGR 2005-2015 (percent)

6.1

-0.2

5.7

0.2

5.7

0.8

6.5

2.5

5.9

1.9

5.4

2.3

Page 8: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

8 Session 6 – Sokalsky

15

+7-10% PER ANNUM

Sustaining Capital

Higher labor costs

Higher energy costs

Less experienced personnel

Other inflationary pressures

+7-10% PER ANNUM

$300/oz UNDERGROUND

$200/oz OPEN PIT

Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.

16

Project Cost Overruns

Source: Ernst & Young

Projected Cost Variances (for selected over-running capital infrastructure projects)

Page 9: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

9 Session 6 – Sokalsky

17

“All-In” Costs

Increasing capital expenditures are leading to higher all-in costs

All-in Co-Product Cash Costs

US$ per ounce

$/oz

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Source: UBS

Q3 08

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

Q1 11

Q2 11

Q3 11

Q4 11

Q1 12

Q2 12

$1,498

18

0

20

40

60

80

GLD ETF introduced

12-31

2004 12-31

2005 12-31

2006 12-31

2007 12-31

2008 12-31

2009 12-31

2010 12-31

2011 12-31

2012E 12-31

2013E

Contracting Multiples

Source: Bloomberg

13 S&P 500 11 XAU

P/E Multiples

Gold equity P/E multiples have been compressed to below S&P levels

0

20

40

60

80

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013E

Source: Bloomberg

P/E multiples 2004-2013E XAU Index vs. S&P 500

GLD ETF introduced

Page 10: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

10 Session 6 – Sokalsky

19

Shrinking Junior Miners

Market Cap of Top 100 Junior Miners Listed on TSX-V

20.6

11.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

June 30, 2011 June 30, 2012

$B

Market Cap of Top 100 Junior Miners Listed on TSX-V

-43%

Other findings:

61% decrease in +$200M market cap entities

41% decrease in equity funds raised

Spending cuts and delays

$20.6B JUNE 30, 2011

$11.7B JUNE 30, 2012

-43%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

20

Business Risks

Source: Ernst & Young

Top Business Risks for Mining and Metals (2012-2013)

1) Resource Nationalism

2) Skills Shortage

3) Infrastructure Access

4) Cost Inflation

5) Capital Project Execution

6) Maintaining a Social License to Operate

Page 11: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

11 Session 6 – Sokalsky

21

Greater Responsibilities

Growing number of responsibilities

Rising investor and NGO pressure

22

Environmental Impacts

– Water and land management

– Low trust in the private sector

– Competing for shared and scarce resources

Energy

– Reliability of energy sources

– Volatile policy and price environment

Sharing Benefits

– Managing high expectations

– Ensuring all stakeholders benefit

Challenges in Common

Page 12: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

12 Session 6 – Sokalsky

23

Managing in this Environment

Industry association established to facilitate member companies’ efforts toward sustainable development

Multi-sector initiative focused on safety, security, and protection & respect for human rights

Industry association that has recently launched Conflict Free Gold Standard

Multi-sector initiative to improve transparency of industry’s payments to governments

24

Industry shift from production growth at any cost

Renewed market focus on disciplined capital allocation, higher returns and free cash flow

Producers shelving/deferring marginal mines and projects or downsizing to smaller development scenarios

Industry response may result in lower mine supply, but this will also be supportive for the gold price and create a healthier industry

Industry Shift in Focus

Page 13: International Mine ProductionLBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012 Session 6 – Sokalsky 2 3 50$0 60 7070 80 90$1,200 100100 Mine Supply Moz 01 02 03 04 05 06

LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012

13 Session 6 – Sokalsky

25

International Mine Production LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012

Hong Kong | November 2012


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