LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
1 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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International Mine Production LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012
Hong Kong | November 2012
2
Certain information contained or incorporated by reference in this presentation, including any information as to our strategy, project plans or future financial or operating performance, constitutes "forward-looking statements". All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "contemplate", "target", "plan", "intend", "continue", "budget", "estimate", "may", "will", "schedule" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by the company, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Known and unknown factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the market and forward price of gold and copper or certain other commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel and electricity); the impact of global liquidity and credit availability on the timing of cash flows and the values of assets and liabilities based on projected future cash flows; fluctuations in the currency markets (such as Canadian and Australian dollars, Chilean and Argentinean peso, British pound, Peruvian sol, Zambian kwacha and Papua New Guinean kina versus US dollar); changes in US dollar interest rates that could impact the mark-to-market value of outstanding derivative instruments and ongoing payments/receipts under interest rate swaps and variable rate debt obligations; risks arising from holding derivative instruments (such as credit risk, market liquidity risk and mark-to-market risk); changes in national and local government legislation, taxation, controls, regulations and political or economic developments in Canada, the United States, Dominican Republic, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Tanzania, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, Pakistan or Barbados or other countries in which we do or may carry on business in the future; acts of war, terrorism, sabotage and civil disturbances; business opportunities that may be presented to, or pursued by, the company; our ability to successfully integrate acquisitions; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or development activities; employee relations; availability and increased costs associated with mining inputs; increased costs and technical challenges associated with the construction of capital projects; inflation; litigation; the speculative nature of exploration and development, including the risks of obtaining necessary licenses and permits; diminishing quantities or reserve grades; adverse changes in our credit rating; contests over title to properties, particularly title to undeveloped properties; and the organization of our previously held African gold operations and properties under a separate listed company. In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the business of exploration, development and mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold bullion or copper cathode losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance, or inability to obtain insurance, to cover these risks). Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can affect our actual results and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, us. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. All of the forward-looking statements made in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements. Specific reference is made to the most recent Form 40-F/Annual Information Form on file with the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities for a discussion of some of the factors underlying forward-looking statements. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by applicable law.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
2 Session 6 – Sokalsky
3
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mine Supply Moz
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Mine Supply Inelasticity
Supply has not kept pace with the rising gold price
Production declines in mature areas
Reserve replacement challenges
Increasing cash costs and capital costs
Political risk
Higher environmental standards
Sources: Thomson Reuters GFMS, Bloomberg
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mo
z
US
$/
Mo
z
US
$/
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
Gold Price US$/oz
4
Scarcity of Large Operations
Source: Metals Economics Group
Total Global Gold Mines by Size (2011 gold production)
156 mines >100,000 ounces
21 mines >500,000 ounces
6 mines >1,000,000 ounces
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
3 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Changing of the Guard
Moz 2004
11.0 South Africa
8.4 United States
8.3 Australia
7.0 China
5.9 Russia
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
2011 Moz
China 11.9
Australia 8.3
United States 7.5
Russia 6.8
South Africa 6.4
Annual Gold Production
6
The bar is getting higher
Global Exploration Trends
Focus on big deposits
Discovery rates: down
Supergiants: rare
Mine maturity: up
Discovery costs: up
Development time: up
Technical risk: up
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
4 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Endowment (Moz)(1)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Discovery Year
Declining Discovery Rates
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Go
ld a
nd
Co
pp
er-G
old
Exp
lora
tio
n S
pen
din
g (U
S$M
)
End
ow
men
t (M
oz)
Discovery Year
Gold and copper-gold 3 year average
Sources: Metals Economics Group, Intierra and Barrick
Exploration spending
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gold
Explo
ration S
pendin
g (
US$M
)
Endow
ment (M
oz)
Discovery Year
Gold Exploration Spending (US$B)
0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
8
Declining Supergiant Discoveries
Number of Gold Discoveries Per Decade Over 20Moz (Supergiant)
18
4
1 1
3 3
5 6
14
11
5
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
? Source: Barrick
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
5 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Declining Discoveries
4
2
3
4
3
4 4
5
3
1
4
1
2
3
1
4
6
1 1
3
1
7
2
4
7
6 5
1
2
3
4
1
2 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Not Operating Operating
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Discovery Year
Number of Gold Discoveries Per Year Over 5Moz
Sources: Intierra, Barrick
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Declining Grades
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Annual G
old Price (U
S$/oz)
Wei
ghte
d-av
erag
e G
old
Gra
de (
g/m
t)
Weighted-average Headgrade Gold Price
© Metals Economics Group, 2012
Gold Price
Source: Metals Economics Group
Annual Gold Price
Weighted Avg. Head Grade
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$/oz
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
g/mt
22%
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
6 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Industry Cash Costs
Higher gold prices and lower cutoff grades have contributed to cash cost escalation
$/oz $/oz
250
350
450
550
650
750
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Q4 Q4 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008
Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4
2009 2010 2011 2012
2006
+26%
+23%
2007
+28%
+30%
2008
+1%
+7%
2009
+38%
+12%
2010
+24%
+16%
2011
+23%
+12%
2012
-5%
+12%
Total for the period Q4 2005 – Q2 2012
Gold Price +270% Cash Costs +187%
Q2
250
350
450
550
650
750
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Q4-05
Q1-06
Q2-06
Q3-06
Q4-06
Q1-07
Q2-07
Q3-07
Q4-07
Q1-08
Q2-08
Q3-08
Q4-08
Q1-09
Q2-09
Q3-09
Q4-09
Q1-10
Q2-10
Q3-10
Q4-10
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
12
Cash Cost Inflation
Gold Non-Gold
2.3 2.3
Gold Non-Gold
4.3 4.3
Gold Non-Gold
2.8 2.8
Gold Non-Gold
3.5 2.0
Gold Non-Gold
1.0 1.0
Gold Non-Gold
1.4 1.5
Gold Non-Gold
~16.0 ~14.5
CPI
Mine Site factor costs
USD decline
Grade decline
Recovery decline
Mine conditions decline
Gold Non-Gold
9.7 9.7
Gold Non-Gold
6.0 4.6
Factor price inflation
Geological inflation
Total cost inflation nominal
Source: McKinsey Mining Practice
Compound Annual Growth Rate 2001-2011 (percent)
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
7 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Production Costs
Column1
Wages (includingcontract)
Energy
OtherConsumables
Maitenance andOther
~40% Wages
(including contract)
~25% Other
Consumables
~15% Energy
~20% Maintenance
(and other)
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Laborers and related workers
Semiskilled workers
Trades persons
Professionals
Technicians
Managers and administrators
Sources: McKinsey Analysis, Minerals Council of Australia
Increasing Labor Scarcity
Skilled Labor - Supply and Demand Australian minerals sector CAGR 2005-2015 (percent)
6.1
-0.2
5.7
0.2
5.7
0.8
6.5
2.5
5.9
1.9
5.4
2.3
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
8 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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+7-10% PER ANNUM
Sustaining Capital
Higher labor costs
Higher energy costs
Less experienced personnel
Other inflationary pressures
+7-10% PER ANNUM
$300/oz UNDERGROUND
$200/oz OPEN PIT
Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.
16
Project Cost Overruns
Source: Ernst & Young
Projected Cost Variances (for selected over-running capital infrastructure projects)
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
9 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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“All-In” Costs
Increasing capital expenditures are leading to higher all-in costs
All-in Co-Product Cash Costs
US$ per ounce
$/oz
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Source: UBS
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
$1,498
18
0
20
40
60
80
GLD ETF introduced
12-31
2004 12-31
2005 12-31
2006 12-31
2007 12-31
2008 12-31
2009 12-31
2010 12-31
2011 12-31
2012E 12-31
2013E
Contracting Multiples
Source: Bloomberg
13 S&P 500 11 XAU
P/E Multiples
Gold equity P/E multiples have been compressed to below S&P levels
0
20
40
60
80
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Source: Bloomberg
P/E multiples 2004-2013E XAU Index vs. S&P 500
GLD ETF introduced
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
10 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Shrinking Junior Miners
Market Cap of Top 100 Junior Miners Listed on TSX-V
20.6
11.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
June 30, 2011 June 30, 2012
$B
Market Cap of Top 100 Junior Miners Listed on TSX-V
-43%
Other findings:
61% decrease in +$200M market cap entities
41% decrease in equity funds raised
Spending cuts and delays
$20.6B JUNE 30, 2011
$11.7B JUNE 30, 2012
-43%
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers
20
Business Risks
Source: Ernst & Young
Top Business Risks for Mining and Metals (2012-2013)
1) Resource Nationalism
2) Skills Shortage
3) Infrastructure Access
4) Cost Inflation
5) Capital Project Execution
6) Maintaining a Social License to Operate
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
11 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Greater Responsibilities
Growing number of responsibilities
Rising investor and NGO pressure
22
Environmental Impacts
– Water and land management
– Low trust in the private sector
– Competing for shared and scarce resources
Energy
– Reliability of energy sources
– Volatile policy and price environment
Sharing Benefits
– Managing high expectations
– Ensuring all stakeholders benefit
Challenges in Common
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
12 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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Managing in this Environment
Industry association established to facilitate member companies’ efforts toward sustainable development
Multi-sector initiative focused on safety, security, and protection & respect for human rights
Industry association that has recently launched Conflict Free Gold Standard
Multi-sector initiative to improve transparency of industry’s payments to governments
24
Industry shift from production growth at any cost
Renewed market focus on disciplined capital allocation, higher returns and free cash flow
Producers shelving/deferring marginal mines and projects or downsizing to smaller development scenarios
Industry response may result in lower mine supply, but this will also be supportive for the gold price and create a healthier industry
Industry Shift in Focus
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012 13 November 2012
13 Session 6 – Sokalsky
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International Mine Production LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2012
Hong Kong | November 2012