01.08.2012 Seite 1 Page 1
RAC NAMA
Importance of RAC sector focusing on ozone depletion and climate change
GIZ Proklima
Bangkok, 31st July 2012
01.08.2012 Seite 2 Page 2
RAC NAMA
Agenda
NAMA Example: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (RAC)
Towards a NAMA in the RAC&FB sector in Thailand
Rational for NAMAs in the Refrigeration, Air Conditioning & Foam Blowing sector
01.08.2012 Seite 3 Page 3
RAC NAMA
Agenda
NAMA Example: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (RAC)
Towards a NAMA in the RAC&FB sector in Thailand
Rational for NAMAs in the Refrigeration, Air Conditioning & Foam Blowing sector
01.08.2012 Seite 4 Page 4
RAC NAMA
Background – Climate Impact Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
Ref
riger
atio
n +
AC
Fo
ams
ODP
Direct Emissions
Indirect Emissions
15-20% of world electricity consumption!!*
CO2eq.
CO2
HFC
CFC, HCFC
*IIR, 2002
01.08.2012 Seite 5 Page 5
RAC NAMA
Background – From CFC, HCFC to HFC U
NE
P/W
MO
Ozo
ne
Ass
essm
ent,
2006
(ODPs) (GWPs)
CO2 = 1 CFC-11 = 1
Climate Ozone
HFCs have no effect on the ozone layer, but are potent greenhouse gases.
HFCs have no effect on the ozone layer, but are potent greenhouse gases.
01.08.2012 Seite 6 Page 6
RAC NAMA
There are climate-friendly alternatives! Refrigerant Group Atmospheric
life ODP GWP
R11 CFC 130 1 4000 R12 CFC 130 1 8500 R22 HCFC 15 .05 1500 R134a HFC 16 0 1300 R404a HFC 16 0 3260 R410a HFC 16 0 1720 R507 HFC 130 1 3300 R717 NH3 - 0 0 R744 CO2 - 0 1 R290 HC < 1 0 8 R600a HC < 1 0 8
High GWP “Drop-Ins” High GWP “Drop-Ins”
Low GWP Natural
Refrigerants
Low GWP Natural
Refrigerants
01.08.2012 Seite 7 Page 7
RAC NAMA
Projected Emissions from ODS (Scenario without Montreal Protocol)
Total CO2 Emissions
Actual ODS Emissions
1987: Montreal Protocol
2010: Completion of CFC Phase-out
Maximum
Minimum
Abated Emissions
Global Warming Potential of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS)
Magnitude of Kyoto Protocol Reduction Target (2012)
Source:
Projected Emissions from ODS (Scenario without Montreal Protocol)
Total CO2 Emissions
Actual ODS Emissions
1987: Montreal Protocol
2010: Completion of CFC Phase-out
Maximum
Minimum
Abated Emissions
Global Warming Potential of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS)
Magnitude of Kyoto Protocol Reduction Target (2012)
Projected Emissions from ODS (Scenario without Montreal Protocol)
Total CO2 Emissions
Actual ODS Emissions
1987: Montreal Protocol
2010: Completion of CFC Phase-out
Maximum
Minimum
Abated Emissions
Global Warming Potential of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS)
Magnitude of Kyoto Protocol Reduction Target (2012)
Magnitude of Kyoto Protocol Reduction Target (2012)
Source:Source:
GWP-weighted emission reductions through the Montreal Protocol
01.08.2012 Seite 8 Page 8
RAC NAMA
Fig A: Predicted Growth of HFCs without constraint Fig B: HFC share of global GHG-emissions (compare HFC high vs. 450 ppm stabilization szenario –> blue dotted line) Source: Velders, Guus J.M. et.al., 2009
Estimated HFC emissions till 2050
01.08.2012 Seite 9 Page 9
RAC NAMA
Worldwide HFC-emissions projection till 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2eq
2050: 43,5% of total CO2eq emissions 2010: 1,3% of total
CO2eq emissions
total CO2 emissions target in order to achieve 450 ppm atmospheric concentration levels (IPCC 3rd Assessment Report)
HFC‐emissions
01.08.2012 Seite 10 Page 10
RAC NAMA
CFC-, HCFC- and HFC-consumption in developing countries: Business as Usual
0
500
1,000
1,500
kt S
ubst
ance
FCKW HFCKW HFKW
Prognosis
CFC HCF HFC
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Mt C
O2e
q.
FCKW HFCKW
Prognosis
CFC HCFC HFC
Source: UNEP and own projections
01.08.2012 Seite 11 Page 11
RAC NAMA
01 08 20
Source: UN Dept. of Public Information, 2009
Total emission reduction potential including banks
01.08.2012 Seite 12 Page 12
RAC NAMA
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt C
O2eq
Other Foam
Stationary AC Mobile AC
Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration
Refrigerated transport Industrial refrigeration
Global demand (mainly for AC) will drive demand for refrigerants (unabated) )
AC demand - more people - moving in cities - warm and humid climates - warmer world - more wealth - more ACs,.....
Similar drivers for - commercial refrigeration - industrial refrigeration - mobile AC and refrig.
01.08.2012 Seite 13 Page 13
RAC NAMA
There are alternatives for (nearly) all applications!
Mobile AC
HC HC
Domestic Ref.
CO2, HC
CO2, HC HC HC
AC
CO2/ HC
CO2/ HC
Foams
NH3 NH3
Industr. Ref.
CO2 CO2
Comm. Ref.
01.08.2012 Seite 14 Page 14
RAC NAMA
AC Multi Split systems A5
AC Multi Split systems A5
AC Split systems A2
AC Split systems A2
AC Split systems A5 AC Split systems A5
Industrial A5
Industrial A5
Industrial A2
Industrial A2
… and often they make better economics!
World 2020 Scenario
01.08.2012 Seite 15 Page 15
RAC NAMA
Strong reduction possible … to a large extent without additional costs to the society
‐
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027
Mt C
O2eq
HFC c
onsump
tion
BAU t CO2e RED t CO2e
01.08.2012 Seite 16 Page 16
RAC NAMA
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt C
O2eq
• Room AC China/ India (HC R290)
• Central Chiller Mauritius (NH3) HPMP XPS Foam Sector Plan China (HC, CO2)
… addressing alternative solutions in key countries and subsectors ..
• Mobile AC – South Africa - trans. Refrigeration (CO2)
• Commercial Refrigeration – SA (NH3, CO2)
• Domestic Refrigeration – Swaziland (HC)
01.08.2012 Seite 17 Page 17
RAC NAMA
NAMA Example: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (RAC)
Towards a NAMA in the RAC&FB sector in Thailand
Rational for NAMAs in the Refrigeration, Air Conditioning & Foam Blowing sector
Agenda
01.08.2012 Seite 18 Page 18
RAC NAMA
Abatement options – supermarkets
Abatement Option Expected result
Reduction of leakages Reduction of direct emissions
Introduce Low-GWP refrigerant Reduction of direct emissions
Improvement of energy efficiency Reduction of indirect emissions
Conventional technology
Centralised pack concept, HCFC-22 High leakage rate, large refrigerant charge
01.08.2012 Seite 19 Page 19
RAC NAMA
Sample NAMA mitigation scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt C
O2e
q
BAU NAMA
• BAU with direct and indirect emissions
• 1% growth of stores p.a.
• 5% of stores are
converted annually (app. 55 p.a.)
• 20% efficiency improvement compared to conv.
• 100% direct
emissions avoided
01.08.2012 Seite 20 Page 20
RAC NAMA
NAMA Example: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (RAC)
Towards a NAMA in the RAC&FB sector in Thailand
Rational for NAMAs in the Refrigeration, Air Conditioning & Foam Blowing sector
Agenda
01.08.2012 Seite 21 Page 21
RAC NAMA
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mt C
O2eqTotal emissions and Reduction potential
BAU
DER
DEREE
RAC Emission pathways for Thailand (preliminary results!)
01.08.2012 Seite 22 Page 22
RAC NAMA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Mt C
O2 eqTotal Direct Emissions
BAUDER
RAC Emission pathways for Thailand (preliminary results!)
01.08.2012 Seite 23 Page 23
RAC NAMA
Working Plan: RAC&FB NAMA in Thailand
Part I: Inventory/ Stakeholder Engagement
Stakeholder (Industry) Engagement
Establishment of Inventory
Step 1
Step 2
Part II: Preparing NAMA Description Document (NAMA-DD)
Step 3 Defining Sector BAU and Mitigation Scenarios
Step 4 Identification of Subsectors for Mitigation Action
Step 5 Alternative Technologies + Barrier Removal
Step 6 Policy and Financing
Step 7 Roadmap
Step 8 Upload NAMA – DD for Registration
Part III: NAMA Implementation
Step 9 Enabling implementation of measures
Step 10 Step 11 NAMA Progress and verification of emission reductions
NAMA support framework
Institutional developm
ent and stakeholder engagem
ent
01.08.2012 Seite 24 Page 24
RAC NAMA
Chemical Substances Manufacturers
Chemical Substances Importers
Car Manufacturers(A/C in Cars, Trucks, Refrigerated Vehicles)
Appliances Manufacturers
Garages (refilling services)
A/C Manufacturers(Chiller Type)
A/C Manufacturers(Packages, Split Types)
Refrigerants/Aerosols
Dealers
Direct Sales
Dealers(Own
Service)
Direct Sales
End users
Likely to have Substances Storages
End users• Retail store,• home• commercial buildings• industries• other general use
Dealers(Own
Service)
Direct Sales
Services Companies (refilling services)
Refrigeration Manufacturers
Recycling Services Companies
Recycling Services Companies
Heat Pump Manufacturers
(Source: Bright Management)
01.08.2012 Seite 25 Page 25
RAC NAMA
Cell type Sub‐application Open cell type PU Flexible Foam Continuous
PU Flexible Foam Discontinuous PU Flexible Moulded Foam
PU Integral Skin Foam Closed cell type PU Continuous Panel
PU Continuous Flexible panel PU Discontinuous Panel PU Appliance Foam PU Continuous Block PU Discontinuous Block PU Spray Foam PU Pipe‐in‐Pipe PU OCF (bottle foam) PU Rigid foam all other applications
XPS Extruded Polystyrene boards
RAC categories
Foam categories
Sector Subsector Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners
Split residential air conditioners Split commercial air conditioners Duct split residential air conditioners Commercial ducted splits Rooftop ducted
Multi‐splits Chillers Air conditioning chillers Process chillers Mobile AC Car air conditioning Large vehicle air conditioning Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment
Condensing units Centralised systems for supermarkets Industrial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment
Condensing units Centralised systems Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers
(UNEP RTOC, 2010, modified)
01.08.2012 Seite 26 Page 26
RAC NAMA
Inventory: Appliance numbers (equipment) in Thailand Estimate of Bank, Demand and Emissions Production of appliances
(First Fill)Stock (=appliances in use) Bank
ManufactureEmissions
ServiceEmissions (Refill)
DisposalEmissions
Total Emissions
Direct Emissions
Energy Consumption
Indirect EmissionsFill Refill
Demand
Following the Tier 2a emission-factor approach (IPCC, 2006)
01.08.2012 Seite 27 Page 27
RAC NAMA
Sales figures Refrigerant DistributionSales figures
Stock figures Refrigerant DistributionStock figures
Sub‐sector Calculations
Domestic Production
Imports & Exports
Initial charge Emission factors Growth rates Energy consumption
Emissions Demand per refrigerant
BankDemand
∑ Sub‐sectors
Total emssions Total Demand Total Bank UNFCCC CRF
Inpu
tCa
lculations
Results
01.08.2012 Seite 28 Page 28
RAC NAMA
Sales figures Refrigerant DistributionSales figures
Stock figures Refrigerant DistributionStock figures
Sub‐sector Calculations
Domestic Production
Imports & Exports
Initial charge Emission factors Growth rates Energy consumption
Emissions Demand per refrigerant
BankDemand
∑ Sub‐sectors
Total emssions Total Demand Total Bank
Inpu
tCa
lculations
Results
Penetration Ratesof different abatement options
UNFCCC CRF
01.08.2012 Seite 29 Page 29
RAC NAMA
Feed vintage bottom-up model with inventory data from Thailand How many units are produced in your country?
Sector Sub‐sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits Chillers Air conditioning chillers Chillers Process chillers Mobile AC Car air conditioning Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets Industrial Refrigeration Integral Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers
How many units are sold in your country? Sector Sub‐sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits Chillers Air conditioning chillers Chillers Process chillers Mobile AC Car air conditioning Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units
Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets
Industrial Refrigeration Integral Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers
Refrigeration and air conditioning How many units are in operation (current use) in your country ? Sector Sub‐sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits Chillers Air conditioning chillers Chillers Process chillers Mobile AC Car air conditioning Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets Industrial Refrigeration Integral Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers
01.08.2012 Seite 30 Page 30
RAC NAMA Technical parameters needed Refrigeration and air conditioning Inital Charge in New units [kg]
Sector Sub‐sector
Please choose the dominant refrigerantfrom the drop‐down list (Therefore clickon the cell below) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits Chillers Air conditioning chillers Chillers Process chillers Mobile AC Car air conditioning Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets Industrial Refrigeration Integral Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers
Manufacture Emission Factors (% of Initial Charge) Sector Sub‐sector Refrigerant 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits 0 Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted 0 Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits 0 Chillers Air conditioning chillers 0 Chillers Process chillers 0 Mobile AC Car air conditioning 0 Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning 0 Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration 0 Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment 0 Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units 0 Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets 0 Industrial Refrigeration Integral 0 Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units 0 Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems 0 Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers 0
Servicing Emission Factors (% ofInitial Charge) Sector Sub‐sector Refrigerant 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits 0 Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted 0 Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits 0 Chillers Air conditioning chillers 0 Chillers Process chillers 0 Mobile AC Car air conditioning 0 Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning 0 Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration 0 Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment 0 Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units 0 Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets 0 Industrial Refrigeration Integral 0 Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units 0 Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems 0 Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers 0
Average cooling capacity per unit[kW] Sector Sub‐sector Refrigerant 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203Unitary air conditioning Self‐contained air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Split residential air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Split commercial air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Duct split residential air conditioners 0 Unitary air conditioning Commercial ducted splits 0 Unitary air conditioning Rooftop ducted 0 Unitary air conditioning Multi‐splits 0 Chillers Air conditioning chillers 0 Chillers Process chillers 0 Mobile AC Car air conditioning 0 Mobile AC Large vehicle air conditioning 0 Domestic refrigeration Domestic refrigeration 0 Commercial Refrigeration Stand‐alone equipment 0 Commercial Refrigeration Condensing units 0 Commercial Refrigeration Centralised systems for supermarkets 0 Industrial Refrigeration Integral 0 Industrial Refrigeration Condensing units 0 Industrial Refrigeration Centralised systems 0 Transport Refrigeration Refrigerated trucks/trailers 0
Initial charge
Manufacture Emission Factors
Servicing Emission Factors
Average cooling capacity
etc.
01.08.2012 Seite 31 Page 31
RAC NAMA
Business as usual (BAU) simulations for Thailand (preliminary results!)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mt C
O2 eq
Total Emissions (Direct + Indirect)
Transport Refrigeration
Industrial Refrigeration
Commercial Refrigeration
Domestic refrigeration
Mobile AC
Chillers
Unitary air conditioning
2010
01.08.2012 Seite 32 Page 32
RAC NAMA
BAU Direct and Indirect Emissions: Commercial Refrigeration Stand alone units (e.g. bottle cooler and ice cream freezers)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Mt C
O2eq
Direct emissions
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
Mt C
O2eq
Indirect emissions
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Mt C
O2eq
Direct emissions
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Mt C
O2eq
Indirect emissions
Centralized systems (large supermarket)
01.08.2012 Seite 33 Page 33
RAC NAMA
BAU and Mitigation Scenarios – Centralized Systems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Metric
tonn
es
Demand BAU
Others
HFC
HCFC
CFC
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Mt C
O2eq
Direct emissions
DER
BAU
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
Mt C
O2eq
Indirect emissions
DEREE
BAU
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Mt C
O2 eq
Demand (Fill + Refill)
DERTO
DEREE
BAU
01.08.2012 Seite 34 Page 34
RAC NAMA
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Mt C
O2eqTotal emissions
DER
DEREE
BAU
BAU and Mitigation Scenarios – Centralized Systems
01.08.2012 Seite 35 Page 35
RAC NAMA
BAU and Mitigation Scenarios – Process Chillers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Mt C
O2eqTotal emissions
DER
DEREE
BAU
01.08.2012 Seite 36 Page 36
RAC NAMA
Reduce 50% of (direct) emissions at negative costs
‐40.0
‐20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
0 10 20 30 40
€/t C
O2 eq
Mt CO2eq
MACC 2030 ‐ Direct emissions
Multi splits Com. Refr. ‐ Condensing Units
Process chiller
AC split residential
01.08.2012 Seite 37 Page 37
RAC NAMA
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mt C
O2eqTotal emissions and Reduction potential
BAU
DER
DEREE
RAC Emission pathways for Thailand (preliminary results!)
01.08.2012 Seite 38 Page 38
RAC NAMA
Thank you for your kind attention!