Hawaii: 2020

Presented by Alex Waegelfor Team Cake B

Current Energy Production and Use

• Most of the energy for both electricity and transportation comes from fossil fuels, primarily petroleum.

• Hawaii generates 11.0 TWh electricity each year (30 TWh of fossil fuels are burned)– 9.0 TWh comes from petroleum– 1.5 TWh comes from coal– 0.5 TWh comes from a mix of renewables

(Geothermal, hydroelectric, wind)

• Hawaii uses 17.4 TWh of energy on personal vehicle transportation– This all comes from petroleum

Electrical Generation by Source (MWh / year)

9,063,258

1,548,598

82,000

212,000

80,000

Petroleum Coal Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind

Cost of Current Energy System

• Hawaiians spend a total of $5.4 billion to meet their energy needs– $0.35/kWh for electricity, $3.8 billion total– $0.088/kWh for gasoline (~$3/gal), $1.4

billion total

• These costs are prohibitively high compared to the continental U.S. – This makes all renewable options cost

competetive

CO2 Emissions in Current System

• Total Emissions = 28.7 million tons CO2– 18.5 million tons for electrical generation

• 15 million tons from petroleum• 3.5 million tons from coal

– 10.2 million tons for transportation• All from petroleum

Energy Production in 2020

• Due to the high cost of conventional energy on Hawaii and the abundance of renewable energy, a great deal of renewable energy sources are added– 1,850 MW of Solar PV– 1,000 MW of Wind Turbines (Offshore,

Floating)– 500 MW of Geothermal– 100 MW of Wave / Tidal

Production and Cost of New Capacity

• Solar– Size: 1,850 MW– Initial Cost: $6.5 billion– Generates: 2.7 TWh / year– Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.10 / kWh– Estimated Annual Cost: $270 million

• Wind– Size: 1,000 MW– Initial Cost: $1.0 billion– Generates: 4.2 TWh / year– Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.06 / kWh– Estimated Annual Cost: $252 million

Production and Cost of New Capacity

• Geothermal– Size: 500 MW– Initial Cost: $2.3 billion– Generates: 3.9 TWh / year– Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.03 / kWh– Estimated Annual Cost: $117 million

• Wave / Tidal– Size: 100 MW– Initial Cost: $0.25 billion– Generates: 0.45 TWh / year– Estimated Cost of Elec: $0.05 / kWh– Estimated Annual Cost: $23 million

Two 2020 Scenarios

• Given the inability of grids to handle > 20% intermittent electrical generation the wind will be primarily devoted to meeting transportation needs.– Scenario 1: Hydrogen Generation via

Electrolysis– Scenario 2: Battery Charging of Electric

Vehicles

• These lead to different energy breakdowns and costs

Hydrogen Generation Via Electrolysis

• Wind Generates 4.2 TWh / year– This becomes 110 million kg of H2– The efficiency of creating the H2 and using it

in the FCV is 40.5%– This displaces 59% of the petroleum used in

the transport sector for personal vehicles– The hydrogen is estimated to cost $4.50/kg

• Still Rely on 7.1 TWh of petroleum to supply the remainder of the personal transportation needs

Electrical Generation by Source in 2020 (Hydrogen)

1,206,672

1,548,598

82,000

3,900,000

2,700,000

450,000

Petroleum Coal Hydroelectric Geothermal Solar Wave/Tidal

Additional Cost of Hydrogen System

• Assumptions– Will use on site electrolyzers– Will store hydrogen as compressed gas– There will be 45 stations converted to carry H2– Very low cost of $30,000 / fuel cell for vehicle– 720,000 vehicles will be FCV

• Costs– Electrolyzer: $2.53 million / station – Compresser: $2.00 million / station– Storage Tank: $9.00 million / station– Total Costs for all Stations: $609 million– Total Cost for FCVs: $21.6 BILLION

CO2 Emissions in Hydrogen System

• Total Emissions = 9.7 million tons CO2– 5.5 million tons for electrical generation

• 2.0 million tons from petroleum• 3.5 million tons from coal

– 4.2 million tons for transportation• All from petroleum

Battery Charging of Electric Vehicles

• Wind Generates 4.2 TWh / year– Due to the much higher overall efficiency

(81%) of the cycle of charging and discharging the batteries, this amount of wind energy is more than enough to displace all of the petroleum needs for transport

– 3.87 TWh goes to battery charging– 0.35 TWh goes to the grid

Electric Generation by Source in 2020 (Electric Vehicles)

868,623

1,548,598

82,000

3,900,000

2,700,000

450,000

338,049

Petroleum Coal Hydroelectric Geothermal Solar Wave/Tidal Wind

Additional Cost of Electric Vehicle System

• Costing this scenario presents difficulties due to uncertain costs of the vehicles

• Just looking at the cost of battery systems for the vehicles, which we assume have twice the capacity of the Chevy Volt (32kWh)

• Cost for 1.2 million cars (total number in HI)

• $300/kWh cost for batteries (future cost)

• $11.5 billion for all vehicles

CO2 Emissions in Electric Car System

• Total Emissions = 4.9 million tons CO2– 4.9 million tons for electrical generation

• 1.4 million tons from petroleum• 3.5 million tons from coal

– 0.0 million tons for transportation• All transportation energy comes from wind

Final Costs and Emissions

Initial Cost(billions)

% Renewable Electricity

Annual CO2 Emissions(million tons)

Current System N/A 3.4% 28.7

Hydrogen Scenario(2020)

$32.25 72.1% 9.7

Electric CarScenario(2020)

$21.55 75.6% 4.9

Conclusions

• Renewable energy sources can significantly reduce Hawaii’s dependence on foreign oil without excessive cost

• Hydrogen from renewables has potential, but requires significant capital investment in infrastructure for statewide implementation

• Hawaii’s high cost of electricity makes it the ideal place for the application hydrogen and other renewable alternatives as they are all comparatively economical.

Conclusions

• Of the two choices for 2020, using wind power to charge electric vehicles superior– Costs less– Reduces emission to a greater extent– Due to being on islands, trip distances are by

default relatively short, and will not exceed the range of the electric vehicles

– Allows for a zero emission transportation system

– Using the intermittent power source to charge vehicles keeps the share of intermittent sources providing electrical power to a minimum

Conclusions

• Cons to Electric Vehicle System– Relies on development of a smart grid– This would be an advantageous development

for other reasons, but represents a significant infrastructure improvement and potentially high costs

Thank You! The End!

Questions?