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H1N1 Global Update: Where are we now?
Emergency Management & Safety Solutions
Emergency Management & Safety Solutions
October 2009
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Obama Declares National Emergency – October 23
• Allows medical officials to bypass certain federal requirements. – Officials described
the move as similar to a declaration ahead of a hurricane making landfall.
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Novel H1N1 Virus • A triple reassortment -
three different flu viruses: – North American avian
influenza – Human influenza – Swine influenza virus
– Typically found in Asia and Europe
• Very little change in virus since its inception.
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191 Countries Infected
• World Health Organization (WHO) is no longer reporting the number of cases globally as of July 16, 2009
– “At this point, further spread of the pandemic, within affected countries and to new countries, is considered inevitable.”
– Now in 191+ countries (out of a possible 194).
• October 17 world death toll at least 5,000+
• Numbers vary greatly by different agencies around the world
– Due to the change in testing, case numbers no longer meaningful.
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Flu Season • Southern Hemisphere – minimal activity now
• Tropical Asia increasing rates of illness as they enter the monsoon season – increasing cases in India,
Thailand, Malaysia, and Hong Kong.
• Northern Hemisphere began October 4, 2009 – Widespread disease
reported in 46 states
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The Net Global Picture • Remains a mild disease • H1N1 now the dominant
virus strain • Large populations
susceptible to infection • Monitoring for drug
resistance (36 cases of Tamiflu resistance to date)
• No significant mutations noted to date
• Not the same as seasonal influenza – likes younger people < 25 yrs
• Severe respiratory failure – 40% have been healthy individuals
• Humans infecting animals (pigs, birds & ferrets)
• Developing world will suffer the most (WHO)
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Who is at greatest risk?
• Vulnerable groups – Preferentially infects younger people (0
year to 25 years) – Pregnant women – Preexisting conditions – asthma, lung
conditions, obesity, cardiovascular disease
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Novel H1N1 Confirmed & Probable Case Rate in the US
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Novel H1N1 U.S. Hospitalization Rate per 100,000 Population, By Age
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Clinical Characteristics
Epidemiology/Surveillance Pandemic H1N1 Hospitalizations Reported to CDC as of 19 JUN 2009 August 11, 2009 19 www.ems-solutionsinc.com
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H1N1 Vaccine Current Status
• 45 million doses are the first “likely” shipment
• Effective at producing an immune response in 10 days • Only one shot • Kids under 10 get two shots
• Limited supply • Distribution challenging
• A priority list was established as the original list had 159 million
Priority List (42 million) • Pregnant women • People who live with or care
for children younger than 6 months of age
• Health care and emergency medical services personnel with direct patient contact
• Children 6 months through 4 years of age
• Children 5 through 18 years of age who have chronic medical conditions
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AMA New Online Assessment Tool
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www.AMAfluhelp.org
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Your Challenge
• Remain vigilant – no one knows what will happen next.
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Even Dilbert is into Pandemic Planning
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Regina Phelps, CEM, RN, BSN, MPA Emergency Management & Safety Solutions San Francisco, California 415-643-4300 www.ems-solutionsinc.com H1N1 pandemic flu blog - http://emssolutionsinc.wordpress.com
Thank you
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