16 April 2015
Global Power Synergy
High voltage
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
IPO Report | GPSC
IPO
12 month Target Price Bt33
Price (IPO) N/A
CG Rating N/A
Sector ENERG
SHARE SUMMARY
Stock data:
Issued shares (pre-IPO): 374.58m
Issued shares (post-IPO): 1,498.30m
Par value: Bt10.0
Foreign Limit: n.a.
Foreign Ownership: 0%
Free Float: < 25%
Major Shareholders (Pre-IPO):
PTT 30.1%
PTTGC 30.3%
TOP 11.9%
Thaioil Power 27.7%
Major Shareholders (Post-IPO):
PTT 22.6%
PTTGC 22.7%
TOP 8.9%
Thaioil Power 20.8%
Public 25.0%
GPSC is a growth utility stock
Unlike other utility stocks in the Thai market, GPSC has an exceptional growth
outlook. We expect GPSC to raise its capacity by 41% by 2019, the highest in the
sector. GPSC also has a uniquely positive outlook as its major IPP power plant is still
in a flat earnings period while it is ramping up four projects which will contribute to
higher earnings in 2015-17F. With expected earnings growth of 14% p.a. (CAGR) in
2015-17F, GPSC is a prime growth utility stock in the sector.
Expanding capacity by 16% over the next 2 years
Over the next two years, or by the end of 2017, GPSC will raise its operating MW
capacity by 16% with the startups of 1) 125MW Nava Nakorn Electricity Generating
(NNEG) in 2016; 2) 240MW IRPC Clean Power (IRPCCP) in 2017 (Phase 1 for 40MW to
reach COD in 2015); 3) 65MW Nam Lik 1 Power (NL1PC) in 2017 and; 4) 117MW
Bangpa-in Cogeneration 2 (BIC2) in 2017. The above four projects combined are
215MW (+16%) net equity contribution to GPSC and will be the major driver for
earnings.
Most of the growth will be in 2019
Despite sizable expansion in the medium-term, most of GPSC’s capacity addition will
be in 2019 when the 1,285MW Xayaburi hydropower project is completed in Laos
PDR. This project is an IPP project, selling 1,220MW to EGAT and the other 60MW to
Electricite du Laos (EDL), and will add the other 321MW (+24%) to GPSC portfolio (as
GPSC, via Natee Synergy, owns 25% of the project). We expect GPSC to more than
double its 2020F earnings from its 2014 level (see Figure 8).
Our target price is based on DCF
We value GPSC at Bt33/shr, based on discounted cash flow method to reflect its PPA
contract-based cash flows. Assuming cost of equity (ke) of 9.9%, and no terminal
value for all of its power plants, we derive an enterprise value of Bt37bn for GPSC.
We also incorporate GPSC’s cash on hand (including assumed IPO proceeds) into our
target price, as we believe this is not captured in our DCF calculation (as we have not
assumed additional investments from this IPO proceeds). Note that we believe the
market is also likely to price-in the company's robust cash reserves.
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Year 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Sales (Bt, m) 26,328 23,755 23,816 24,368 26,558
EBITDA (Bt, m) 2,907 2,858 3,101 3,370 3,161
Net profit (Bt, m) 1,161 1,578 1,961 1,952 2,313
Net profit (YoY%) n.a. 35.9 24.3 (0.5) 18.5
Basic EPS (Bt) 1.03 1.40 1.31 1.30 1.54
EPS (YoY%) n.a. 35.9 (6.8) (0.5) 18.5
PER (X) 29.0 21.4 22.9 23.0 19.4
PBV (X) 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0
Yield (%) 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 1.5
ROE (%) 9.7 6.4 5.8 4.5 5.1
Source: TISCO Research Note: use average price for historical PER, PBV, yield
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
2
16 April 2015
High voltage
The biggest expansion in the Thai power sector
GPSC has a plan to expand its capacity by 41% over the next 4 years (see Figure 4). When
compared to the current plans of other listed power generation (powergen) companies, GPSC’s
target represents the highest growth in the sector. Based on company filings, GPSC currently has
1,351MW of electricity generation, excluding steam, chilled, and industrial water. By 2019, new
power plant startups should raise this number to 1,851MW. Over the next few years starting
2015, we expect to see a steady rampup of new projects which will show in company’s earnings
and dividends.
Figure 1. GPSC’s committed projects
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
MW
Current NNEG IRPCCP NL1PC BIC2 XPCL
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
Expanding capacity by 16% over the next 2 years
Over the next two years, or by the end of 2017, GPSC will raise its operating MW capacity by 16%
with the startups of 1) 125MW Nava Nakorn Electricity Generating (NNEG) in 2016; 2) 240MW
IRPC Clean Power (IRPCCP) in 2017 (Phase 1 for 40MW to reach COD in 2015); 3) 65MW Nam Lik 1
Power (NL1PC) in 2017 and; 4) 117MW Bangpa-in Cogeneration 2 (BIC2) in 2017– for more
detailed overview of each project, see Figure 18. In May 2015, IRPCCP will reach its first phase of
commercial operation by supplying 45MW and 180 ton/hr of steam to IRPC (who will complete its
UHV project in 3Q15). The above four projects combined offer 215MW (+16%) net equity
contribution to GPSC (i.e. GPSC doesn’t hold 100% in each of these projects).
Most of the growth will be in 2019
Despite sizable expansion in the medium-term, most of GPSC’s capacity addition will be in 2019
when the 1,285MW Xayaburi hydropower project (under Natee Synergy) is completed in Laos
PDR. This project is an IPP project, selling 1,220MW to EGAT and the other 60MW to Electricite du
Laos (EDL), and will add the other 321MW (+24%) to GPSC portfolio (as GPSC, via Natee Synergy,
owns 25% of the project).
Expect earnings rampup over the next 3 years
Even though the majority of the capacity expansion should be coming online in 2019, we believe
GPSC will see earnings improvement well before that, thanks to improving profitability in its
current portfolio of power plants. We expect the higher contribution from subsidiaries will help
offset the declining trend of IPT income (due to its front-loaded contract). In 2015, we forecast
income from subsidiary to rise to Bt764m (from Bt268m) thanks to 1) Bt250m higher dividend
income from RPCL (GPSC did not recognize this income last year) and; 2) Bt200m higher
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
3
16 April 2015
contribution from the steady rampup at BIC (117MW) and TSE (80MW solar), while the earnings
contribution from the partial (phase I) startup of IRPCCP would still be subdued. In 2017,
normalization of NNEG operations and the full IRPCCP startup would raise subsidiary income to
Bt1,251m.
Figure 2. GPSC’s revenue and EBITDA forecasts Figure 3. GPSC’s earnings forecasts
22
23
24
25
26
27
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bt, bn
(0.5)
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Bt, bnRevenues EBITDA (RHS)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bt, bn
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
Expansion strategy on top of the committed projects
64-67MW projects near reality before others to go
On top of its committed projects, GPSC expects some 600-1000MW of additional opportunities to
arise domestically (new IPP bidding rounds, renewable energy projects) and regionally (solar
power in Japan and coal-fired power plant in Myanmar). The specific projects under study include
1) 6-9MW Waste-to-Energy projects in Rayong; 2) 40MW Central Utility Plant 4 (CUP4) plant in
Asia Industrial Estate, Rayong; 3) 18MW solar farm in Japan. In our view, since these projects are
either already in contracting or environmental permitting stage, the combined 64-67MW projects
under study are potential projects which could materialize over the next 1-2 years. We have not
valued these projects in our valuation section as we only value confirmed projects.
The advantage of being a PTT flagship
Given the group’s sizable planned expansions within the region, PTT has positioned GPSC as its
flagship power company and expects to leverage on GPSC’s current partners to accommodate the
group’s needs. For example, PTT is currently studying building a 660kbd refinery in Vietnam
(US$22bn investment) while PTTGC has petrochemical project ambitions in the US, Indonesia and
China.
Figure 4. GPSC’s investment plan
2,451-2,851
1,851
1,315
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Existing Projects in
pipeline
New projects Others Others
Equity MW
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
4
16 April 2015
GPSC should be able to raise dividends
The IPO and the lower Capex burden should turn GPSC’s net debt position to negative (i.e. net
cash position) and allow GPSC to raise dividends this year. By assuming IPO proceeds based on our
fair value analysis, we estimate GPSC’s net debt position will turn to negative Bt9.6bn in 2015F
(Figure 5). This implies that the company has ample room to raise borrowing to fund its Capex
and/or raise dividends. Nevertheless, given our expectation that GPSC’s Capex burden will be
light, amounting to only Bt5bn over the next 3 years, hence allowing its free cash flow to turn
positive from this year onwards, we believe the company has ample room to raise dividends. In
Figure 7, we have assumed GPSC will raise its dividend payout ratio to 30% from 2015F, in line
with management guidance, and we believe this is rather conservative.
Figure 5. GPSC net debt should turn negative
(net cash) in 2015F
Figure 6. GPSC’s free cash flow should turn
positive in 2015F
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Bt, bn
(0.4)
(0.2)
0.0
0.2
0.4
xNet interest bearing debt Net gearing
(8.0)
(4.0)
0.0
4.0
8.0
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Bt, bn CFO CFI Free cash flow
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
Figure 7. Thailand’s electricity generation by scheme
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Bt/shr
0
10
20
30
40
%DPS Payout ratio (RHS)
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
5
16 April 2015
Figure 8. Key financial projections
Income statement (Bt, m) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Net sales 26,328 23,755 23,816 24,368 26,558 27,612 34,298 36,884
Cost of sales 23,321 20,622 20,513 20,791 23,171 24,261 30,624 33,373
Depreciation 1,016 1,043 1,385 1,415 1,442 1,477 1,503 1,537
SG&A 289 410 356 364 397 412 513 551
Other Income 189 135 153 157 171 178 221 237
Other Expense 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT 1,891 1,815 1,716 1,954 1,719 1,639 1,880 1,661
Associates 2 268 764 508 1,251 1,408 1,324 2,478
Interest Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Expense 618 470 519 509 552 479 406 333
Pretax profit 1,275 1,613 1,961 1,952 2,417 2,568 2,798 3,806
Tax 4 27 0 0 104 236 289 291
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net extraordinary items (110) (8) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reported net income 1,161 1,578 1,961 1,952 2,313 2,332 2,509 3,515
Balance sheet (Bt, m) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Cash and marketable securities 6,390 3,421 25,299 23,126 26,088 29,898 33,047 35,393
Investment 906 182 182 182 182 182 182 182
Accounts receivable 4,999 3,013 3,021 3,091 3,368 3,502 4,350 4,678
Inventory 389 359 357 362 403 422 534 582
Total other current assets 1,808 1,170 731 753 776 799 823 848
Total current assets 14,492 8,145 29,590 27,513 30,817 34,804 38,936 41,682
LT Investment 1 2,687 2,687 2,687 2,687 2,687 2,687 2,687
Net tangible fixed assets 25,568 26,977 25,768 27,512 27,590 27,634 26,132 24,595
Net Intangible 27 73 73 73 73 73 73 73
Total other non-current assets 3,257 5,050 5,062 5,074 5,087 5,100 5,113 5,127
Total Non-current assets 28,853 34,787 33,590 35,346 35,437 35,494 34,005 32,482
Total assets 43,345 42,932 63,180 62,859 66,254 70,298 72,941 74,164
Accounts payable 4,769 3,483 3,520 3,570 3,957 4,138 5,165 5,612
Short-term debt 2,254 1,595 1,743 1,743 1,743 1,743 1,743 1,743
Total other current liabilities 673 127 131 135 1,702 3,689 4,491 4,522
Total current liabilities 8,056 5,205 5,395 5,448 7,402 9,570 11,400 11,877
Long-term debt 10,384 11,197 14,113 12,370 10,627 8,883 7,140 5,397
Total obligations 23 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Total other non-current liabilities 520 486 82 85 1,650 3,636 4,437 4,465
Total Non-current Liabilities 10,927 11,710 14,223 12,482 12,304 12,547 11,604 9,889
Total liabilities 18,983 16,915 19,617 17,930 19,706 22,117 23,004 21,766
Issued and paid-up share capital 11,237 11,237 14,983 14,983 14,983 14,983 14,983 14,983
Share premium 3,393 3,393 14,622 14,622 14,622 14,622 14,622 14,622
Retained earnings 9,297 10,655 13,225 14,591 16,211 17,843 19,599 22,060
Shareholders' equity 23,927 25,285 42,830 44,196 45,816 47,448 49,204 51,665
Liabilities and shareholders' equity*
(incl. minority interest) 43,344 42,933 63,180 62,859 66,254 70,298 72,941 74,164
Cash flow statement (Bt, m) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Depreciation and amortization 1,161 1,578 1,961 1,952 2,313 2,332 2,509 3,515
Add back fx 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total other operating cash flow 522 1,171 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net change in working capital (200) 803 465 (53) 1,602 1,982 835 66
Capital expenditure 0 (5,619) (176) (3,159) (1,521) (1,521) 0 0
Net acquisitions/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total other investing cash flows (2,589) (2,058) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in borrowings 2,560 1,765 2,757 (1,743) (1,743) (1,743) (1,743) (1,743)
Equity raised/share buybacks 3,393 0 11,229 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 (112) (588) (586) (694) (700) (753) (1,055)
Total other financing cash flows (2,606) (2,272) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
6
16 April 2015
Stagnant industry growth
No near-term industry catalyst; but this doesn’t bother GPSC
We don’t expect to see significant growth in the power sector any time soon as a result of
demand flattening out and near-term oversupply. In our view, this could help GPSC stand out
from its peers whose growth is constrained by capacity limitations. While Thailand’s power
demand grew at almost 5% p.a. from 2002-12 (see Figure 9), economic slowdown and political
turmoil have lowered power consumption growth to only 2% in 2015F (based on official
estimates). This is becoming an issue as powergen capacities have also expanded significantly
over the period (see Figure 10). As a result, the industry saw reserve margins climb to 23% (the
portion of powergen capacity not being utilized) in 2014, based on our estimates.
Figure 9. Thai power demand has grown 4.9% p.a. over the past 10 years
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GWh Residential Small General Service
Business Industrial
Government and Non-Profit Agriculture
Other Free of Charge 10-yr CAGR: 4.9%
Source: TISCO Research, EPPO
Figure 10. Thailand’s power generation capacity has grown by 3.2% p.a. (Cagr)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
MW Purchase Gas Turbine Diesel
Renewable Energy Hydropower Thermal
10-yr CAGR: 3.2%
Source: TISCO Research, EPPO
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
7
16 April 2015
Expect the next IPP bidding in 2016
We believe the next round of IPP bidding, a historically significant industry event which adds
material capacity and is also a major catalyst to share prices, will still happen as the government
continues to support IPPs (see Figure 8) and its policy commands diversification into new fuel
sources. That said, we believe the likelihood of the event happening in 2015 is low. We believe
the new Power Development Plan (PDP), which we expect to be announced this year (dubbed
PDP2015), will result in a new coal-fired IPP bidding round sometime next year. This would create
an opportunity for GPSC to participate. While we believe this will be the single most important
share driver for GPSC, the actual income contribution from any such project is unlikely to
materialize in the next few years (or until the project is scheduled to begin operations). We also
believe competition for the project from contenders like EGCO and GLOW will be fierce.
Figure 11. Thailand’s electricity generation by scheme
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
GWh Hydro Fuel oil Lignite Gas Diesel Imported SPP IPP
Source: TISCO Research, EPPO
Figure 12. Thailand installed power capacity by
segment (2014)
Figure 13. Natural gas is the primary source of
fuel for Thailand’s power generation (2014)
SPP
8%
IPP
39%
Import
7%
EGAT
46%
Natural gas
67%
Import &
others
7%
Oil
1%
Lignite/coal
21%
Hydro
4%
Source: TISCO Research, EGAT Source: TISCO Research, EPPO
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
8
16 April 2015
Valuation & Risks
We value GPSC using discounted cash flow
We value GPSC using discounted cash flow method to reflect its defensive (i.e. power demand is
not volatile), long-term (many projects last up to 25 years), and highly visible (as much of its sales
is based on PPA contracts) business. We believe discounting GPSC’s free cash flow to equity is
intuitive as it allows us to value each power project individually and reflects the project financing
nature of each without making assumptions regarding company’s debt levels. Assuming cost of
equity (ke) of 9.9% (based on risk-free rate of 2.5%, beta of 0.8x and market risk premium of
9.2%), and no terminal value for all of its power plants, we derive an enterprise value of Bt37bn
for GPSC. We also incorporate GPSC’s cash on hands into our target price, as we believe this cash
is not captured in our DCF calculation given that we have not assumed such cash to be put to
work (i.e. we have not assumed any additional projects above and beyond those that GPSC has
already committed itself). We also believe the market will price in such cash into the share price.
Figure 14. GPSC’s fair value calculation
Unit
Discounted cash flows (2015F) 37,208 Bt, m
Cash on hand (assume IPO proceeds) 12,404 Bt, m
GPSC fair value 49,612 Bt, m
Total number of shares (post-IPO) 1,498 Mil. shares
GPSC fair value 33 Bt/shr
Source: TISCO Research
Figure 15. GPSC’s fair value breakdown by project
NNEG
1%
IRPCCP
9%
XPCL
15%
NL1PC
1%
TSR
7%
CHPP
0%
BIC 2
0%
RPCL
4%
BIC 1
2%
IPT + PTTUT
61%
Source: TISCO Research
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
9
16 April 2015
Figure 16. GPSC’s FCFE calculations
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F … 2030F … 2049F
IPT + PTTUT (324) 1,095 1,018 2,867 3,034 3,263
RPCL 288 209 211 176 161 0
CHPP (107) 4 4 (1) 45 0
BIC 1 61 57 11 55 54 0
BIC 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
NNEG (79) 39 48 46 55 0
IRPCCP (402) (31) 282 368 479 0
XPCL (1,102) (1,148) (1,183) (475) 1,824 0
NL1PC (77) 76 63 56 99 0
TSR 259 274 288 302 191 0
Total FCFE (1,482) 574 741 3,394 5,944 3,263
Source: TISCO Research
Risks
Key risks to GPSC are similar to the other stocks in the utilities sector, namely;
� Production disruptions/unplanned shutdowns which could result in penalties (for IPPs) and
lost opportunities for non-EGAT sales
� Contraction in power and steam demand from industrial customers (IC)
� Lower than expected returns on investments from construction delays/cost overruns
� Inability to pass through rising upstream gas costs (in the case of SPPs)
� A sharp rise in bond yields
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
10
16 April 2015
Company profile
Company description
GPSC has been founded on 10 January 2013 through the amalgamation between PTTUT and IPT to
be the PTT Group’s Power Flagship. The integration resulted in reaching a total generating
capacity of 1,039MW of electricity, 1,340 T/hr of steam, and 2,080 m3/hr of industrial water. Its
core business is to generate and supply electricity, steam, and industrial water to its customers
both electricity authority, namely EGAT, PEA, and MEA, and industrial users. Currently, GPSC has
total generating capacity of 1,315MW of electricity, 1,345 T/hr of steam, 12,000 RT of chilled
water, and 2,080 m3/hr of industrial water.
Figure 17. GPSC company overview
30.10% 30.31% 27.71% 11.88%
Electricity
Steam
Chilled Water
Under construction
Industrial Water
Capacity
Total Equity Capacity: Electricity ~1,851 MW: Steam ~1,512 T/H
: Industrial water ~2,080 Cu.m./H: Chilled water ~12,000 RT
Combined Cycle/
Cogeneration Power Plant Other Businesses
Solar Energy Power Plant
Hydroelectric Power Plant
Natee Synergy Co.,
Ltd.
Business Services
Alliance Co., Ltd.
24M Technologies, Inc.
5 MW
12,000 RT
240 MW
300 T/H
100%
51%
30%
25%40%
15%
25%
17%
100%
100%
125 MW
30 T/H
117 MW
20 T/H
1,400 MW
- T/H
80 MW
1,285 MW
25%
117 MW
20 T/H
40%65 MW
100% Sport Services Alliance Co., Ltd.
Operating*
SCOD: 2017
SCOD: 2016
SCOD: 2017
SCOD: 2017
SCOD: 2019
Operating
Operating
Operating
433 MW 172 T/H 12,000 RT 32 MW 347 MW
Note: *CHPP currently operates only Electric Chiller
1,039 MW
1,340 T/H
2,080 Cu.m./H
Rayong and Sriracha
Project % Holding by GPSC Total MW Equity MW
GPSC Owned-asset 1,039 1,039
CHPP 100% 5 5
IRPC-CP 51% 240 122
NNEG 30% 125 38
BIC1 & 2 25% 234 59
RPCL 15% 1,400 210
TSR 40% 80 32
XPCL 25% 1,285 321
NL1PC 40% 65 26
Total 4,473 1,851 Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
Detailed view of GPSC business operations
As per Figure 17, GPSC is an IPP-based powergen player in Thailand, with 69% (910MW) of its
equity-share powergen capacity selling under the Independent Power Producer (IPP) scheme. The
remaining 31% of GPSC’s powergen capacity sells to Small Power Producers (SPP) and Industrial
Customers (IC). GPSC is mostly gas-based, with 79% of its capacities fired by gas. All of the above
observations about GPSC would still hold true when we take into account the company’s
committed expansion plans (showing full effects in 2019), as we illustrate in Figure 20 and Figure
22.
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
11
16 April 2015
Figure 18. List of GPSC power plants
Electricity
(MW)
Steam
(ton/hr)*
Demin water
(m/hr)*
Share-
holding (%)
Net equity
capacity (MW) COD** Scheme
Company-owned
IPP
Sriracha power plant 700 80 100% 700 2000 IPP
Cogen
PTTUT - CUP1 226 890 720 100% 226 2006 Cogen
PTTUT - CUP2 113 170 510 100% 113 2008 Cogen
PTTUT - CUP3 - 280 770 100% - 2009 Cogen
Total 1,039 1,340 2,080 100% 1,039
Investment companies
Combined cycle/Cogeneration
Ratchaburi Power (RPCL) 1,400 - - 15% 210 2008 IPP
Combined Heat and Power Producing (CHPP) 5 - 12,000 100% 5 2009 VSPP
Bangpa-in Cogeneration (BIC) 117 29 - 25% 29 2013 SPP (90MW), IC
Bangpa-in Cogeneration 2 (BIC2) 117 29 - 25% 29 2017
Nava Nakorn Electricity Generating (NNEG) 125 30 - 30% 38 2016 SPP (90MW), IC
IRPC Clean Power (IRPCCP) 240 300 - 51% 122 2017 SPP (180MW), IC
Solar
Thai Solar Renewable (SSE1) 80 - - 40% 32 2012 VSPP
Hydro
Natee Synergy (XPCL) 1,285 - - 25% 321 2020 IPP
Nam Lik 1 Power (NL1PC) 65 - - 40% 26 2017
Total 3,434 388 12,000 24% 813
Total GPSC capacity 4,473 1,728 14,080 41% 1,852
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
Figure 19. Breakdown of existing capacity by
output buyer
Figure 20. Breakdown of 2019 capacity by output
buyer
IPP
69%
SPP
26%
Others
5%
IPP
67%
SPP
19%
Others
14%
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC (Others include power plants with mixed buyers including PEA, MEA
(as in the case of renewable energy projects), and industrial customers
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC (Others include power plants with mixed buyers including PEA, MEA
(as in the case of renewable energy projects), and industrial customers
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
12
16 April 2015
Figure 21. Breakdown of existing capacity by fuel
type
Figure 22. Breakdown of 2019 capacity by fuel
type
Gas
79%
Hydro
19%
Renewable
2%
Hydro
12%
Renewable
11%
Coal
12%
Gas
64%
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
Map of GPSC power plants
Figure 23. GPSC’s portfolio of power plants
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
13
16 April 2015
Ownership structure
GPSC is owned by four shareholders namely PTT, PTTGC, Thaioil Power (TP) and TOP – see Figure
24. Since all four current (pre-IPO) shareholders of GPSC are PTT group companies, PTT effectively
holds 68% of GPSC. Since the IPO will create 375m new shares (equivalent to 33% of paid-up
shares pre-IPO), we estimate PTT ownership would be diluted to 51% post-IPO.
Figure 24. Shareholding (pre-IPO) Figure 25. Shareholding (post-IPO)
PTTGC
30.3%
Thaioil
power
27.7%
TOP
11.9%
PTT
30.1%
PTTGC
22.7%Thaioil
power
20.8%
Public
25.0%
PTT
22.6%
TOP
8.9%
Source: TISCO Research, GPSC Source: TISCO Research, GPSC
IPO Report | GPSC
TISCO Securities Company Limited is acting as financial advisor and lead underwriter for an offering securities by Global Power
Synergy Public Company Limited. Investors should read the information about the issuer and the securities offering in the
prospectus before making any investment decision.
14
16 April 2015
TISCO Securities Company Limited
www.tiscosec.com
Bangkok
48/8 TISCO Tower 4th Floor, North Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10500, Thailand
Tel : (66) 2633 6999 Fax : (66) 2633 6490, (66) 2633 6660
Esplanade Branch
99 Esplanade Shopping Center, Room 202-2, 2nd Floor, Ratchadapisek Road, Din Daeng, Bangkok 10400
Tel : (66) 2641 3251, (66) 2641 3252 Fax : (66) 2641 3253
Chiang Mai
275/4, 2nd Floor, Chang Phuak Road, Chang Phuak, Muang District, Chiang Mai 50300
Tel. 0 5322 4722 Fax. 0 5322 4711
Nakhon Pathom
386, 388 Petchkasem Road, Prapatone, Muang District, Nakhon Pathom 73000
Tel: 0 3421 1812 Fax: 0 3425 1676
Nakhon Ratchasima
Tesco Lotus Korat, 719/5 Mittraphap Road, Naimuang, Muang District, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Tel: 0 4425 7752 Fax: 0 4425 3752
Udon Thani
227/21 2nd Floor, Udondussadee Road, Muang District, Udon Thani 41000 Tel: 0 4224 6888 Fax: 0 4224 5793
Score Range Level Description 90 - 100 5 Excellent 80 - 89 4 Very Good 70 - 79 3 Good 60 - 69 2 Satisfactory Corporate Governance Report 50 - 59 1 Pass of Thai Listed Companies 2014 < 50 n.a. n.a. N/R Does not appear in the CGR report
Disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of
the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for
Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is
not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. (In order to recognize well performed companies, companies classified into the three highest
score groups (Good, Very Good, and Excellent) will be announced to the public).
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that
date. TISCO Securities Company Limited does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of opinion, are based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or
correctness are not guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon the best information then known to us, and in our
opinion are fair and reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be
construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. TISCO and other companies in the TISCO Group and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions
and may affect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for these companies. No person is authorized to
give any information or to make any representation not contained in this document and any information or representation not contained in this document must not be relied upon as having been
authorized by or on behalf of TISCO. This document is for private circulation only and is not for publication in the press or elsewhere. TISCO accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The use of any information, statements forecasts and projections contained herein shall be at the sole discretion and risk of
the user.