iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Rafael Popper – [email protected] - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
Foresight Methodology: an overview and more…
Bonn, Germany 2008
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Introductory remarks on Foresight Methodology
In both futures and foresight literatures there have been plenty of discussions about processes, generations, challenges, classifications and various ‘styles’ of forward-looking practices and methods.
(See De Jouvenel, 1967; Boucher, 1977; Coates, 1985; Jungk and Müllert, 1987; Cameron et al., 1996; Bell, 1997; Glenn and Gordon, 1999; Godet, 2000, 2001; Georghiou, 2001; Masini, 2001; Miles, 2002, 2008; Cuhls, 2003; Voros, 2003, 2005; Kaivo-oja et al., 2004; Bishop et al., 2007; Barré, 2008; Popper 2008; Johnston and Sripaipan, 2008; Keenan and Miles, 2008; and Georghiou et al., 2008).
Even though these and many other contributions provide a huge ‘knowledge base’ of definitions, frameworks and experiences using a wide range of real – and occasionally hypothetical – examples,up until now there has not been a systematic and organised effort to explore ‘how are foresight methods selected’ using such a large number of case studies (886 cases).
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
New outline (inspired by Katy Börner´s Places & Spaces: Mapping Science)
An overview of:
• foresight
• foresight as a process
• foresight methods
– classifications
– common practices
• foresight mapping
– mapping collaboration
– foresight periodic table *
• foresight methodology
– foresight pyramids
– mapping roadmapping
• future foresight methods
Foresight Methodology (Popper, 2008)in The Handbook of Technology Foresight
How are foresight methods selected? (Popper, 2008)in Foresight journal (Volume 10, issue 6)
pp. 44–88
pp. 62–89
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Foresight is not mere fashion
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since 1971
Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi Brazil Prospectar Delphi Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others Chile TFP Chile Delphi Germany FUTUR Others
2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others
2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others France FuturRIS Others France AGORA Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others Finland Finnsight Others Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others Finland SITRA Foresight Others
2006 Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Evolution of Programmes/Exercises
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
What is foresight?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
What is foresight?
Prospective&
Futures
Foresight
Participation&
Networking
Policy-making&
Planning
• Broadly speaking…
• Foresight is not about– forecasting by experts
• Foresight is more about– sharing a vision and/or a set of objectives
(for our children’s future?)
– promoting trandisciplinarity research
– engaging key stakeholders, including decision- and policy-makers
– drawing upon and creating knowledge networks
– extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making
– organising a long term thinking process
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
But what type of process?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Foresight is “a process which involves intense iterative periods of open reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining of future visions and the common ownership of strategies… It is the discovery of a common space for open thinking on the future and the incubation of strategic approaches”
(Cassingena Harper, 2003)
A more systemic look into the process was done by Miles (2002) who outlined five complementary phases:
Pre-Foresight; Recruitment; Generation; Action; and Renewal.
1
23
5
5
Foresight as a process
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
1
2
3
4
5
‘Sketching’ the phases of the process
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Pre-Foresight
RationalesSponsor(s)ObjectivesOrientationResources- Core team *- Time- Money- Infrastructure- Cultural- PoliticalApproachesTime horizonMethodologyWorkplan- Activities- Tasks- DeliverablesScope- Context- Coverage
Recruitment
Project team *- skillsPartners Sub-contractorsSteering GroupExperts- Thematic- Sectoral- Regional- National- InternationalChampions- Thematic- …InternationalPanelsMethodologistFacilitatorsRapporteurs
Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning
Step 5: evaluating
Generation
Existing knowledgeis amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codifiedNew knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.)
Action
Advising- Strategies- Policy Options- Recommendations- …
Transforming- Networking- Policy-making- Decision-making- …
Renewal
Learning- Process- ProductsEvaluation- Impacts - Efficiency - AppropriatenessDissemination- Shared Visions- Foresight Culture- …
KNOWLEDGE
Foresight should be carefully planned
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
What methods can be used?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
26. Cross-impact / structural analysis27. Delphi28. Key / Critical technologies29. Multi-criteria analysis30. Polling / Voting31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC32. Roadmapping33. Stakeholder analysis
20. Benchmarking21. Bibliometrics22. Indicators / time series analysis23. Modelling 24. Patent analysis25. Trend extrapolation / impact
analysis
1.Backcasting2.Brainstorming3.Citizens panels4.Conferences/workshops5.Essays /Scenario writing6.Expert panels 7.Genius forecasting8.Interviews9.Literature review10.Morphological analysis11.Relevance trees /logic charts12.Role play / Acting13.Scanning14.Scenario /Scenario workshops15.Science fictioning (SF)16.Simulation gaming17.Surveys18.SWOT analysis19.Weak signals /Wildcards
Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions)
Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses, using or generating (hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g. economic indicators)
Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions.Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate (e.g. brainstorming, interviews)
Semi-quantitativeQuantitativeQualitative
Classifying methods by their nature
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Methods by Type of Approach
• Exploratory– Based on what we know Today– Exploring Possible Futures– Examples:
• Conventional Delphi• Conventional Scenario Workshops• Cross-impact analysis• Trend extrapolation, Etc.
• Normative– Based on what we want/desire for the Future– Planning how to get there from Today– Examples:
• Goals Delphi• Success Scenario workshops• Relevance trees, morphological analysis and roadmapping, etc.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
How to link methodsto the ‘the process’?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Type of method
Qualitative
Renewal
● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●
●●●● ●● ● ●●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●
Action
●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ● ●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●
Generation
●●● ●●●● ●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●●●
Recruitment
● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●
●●● ● ●
Foresight Phases
Pre-Foresight
● ●●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●●●● ● ●● ●
●●●● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ●●
Backcasting Brainstorming Citizens Panels Conferences/Workshops Essays/Scenario Writing Expert Panels Genius Forecasting Interviews Literature Review (LR) Morphological Analysis Relevance Trees/Logic Charts Role play/Acting Scanning Scenarios/Scenario Workshops Science Fictioning (SF) Simulation Gaming Surveys SWOT Analysis Weak Signals/Wild Cards
Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [●], some contribution [●●], significant contribution [●●●], major contribution [●●●●]
Potential contribution of qualitative methods
Methods / Activities
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Linking Qualitative methods
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Type of method
Quantitative
Semi-Quantitative
Renewal
●●●
●
●● ● ●
●●● ●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●●
Action
●●●
●
●● ●●● ● ●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●●● ●
●●●● ●●●
Generation
●●●
●●
●●● ●●● ●● ●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●● ●●● ●●●● ●●●● ●● ●●
Recruitment
●●
●●●
● ●
●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●
●●●
Foresight Phases
Pre-Foresight
●●●
●●●
●●● ●
●●● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●● ●●
Benchmarking
Bibliometrics
Indicators/Time Series Analysis (TSA) Modelling Patent Analysis Trend Extrapolation/Impact Analysis Cross-impact/Structural Analysis (SA) Delphi Key/Critical Technologies Multi-criteria Analysis Polling/Voting Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC Roadmapping Stakeholders Analysis/MACTOR
Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [●], some contribution [●●], significant contribution [●●●], major contribution [●●●●]
Potential contribution of quantitative and semi-quantitative methods
Methods / Activities
20
21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Note: the tables (above) provide an impressionistic view of the contribution that 33 methods might make to each phase of the foresight process. The “potential contribution” is represented with bullets. For example: Backcasting may have little/no contribution [●] in the Pre-Foresight, Recruitment and Renewal Phases, whereas significant contribution [●●●] in the Generation and Action Phases
Linking Quantitative & Semi-quantitative ones
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Pre-Foresight(scanning, expert panels,
literature review...)
Recruitment(co-nomination surveys…)
Generation(Scenarios, Delphi,
brainstorming, workshops, roadmapping…)
Action(voting, polling, panels…)
Renewal(interviews, expert panels,
impact analysis…)
But, what are the most common methods?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Let’s then map foresight practices!
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
EFMN: Mapping Foresight Practices in the Wold
• So far, EFMN Mapping has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world
• The mapping has been useful to understand foresight practicesin Europe and other regions of the world
2005 2006 2007 20082004
437 cases> 800
L0 & L1
767 cases> 1400 L0 & L1
100 cases
846 cases> 1600L0 & L1
2008
> 1000 cases> 2000L0&L1
See http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
EFMN 2004: Building up the Mapping Database
• Early mapping efforts, including indicators, protocols and lessons from EUROFORE helped to build the EFMN database
2005 2006 2007 20082004
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Mapping Taxonomy (or Levels)
2005 2006 2007 20082004
• Level 1– year the exercise was created– duration– contact person– name of sponsor– funding– executing organisation– website– number of participants– territorial scope– objectives
L1 L2
• Level 2– types of audiences– types of sponsors– types of methods– countries and regions– types of outputs
• Level 0– name, short description, short
comment, and the time horizon.
L3
• Level 3– research areas
(i.e. Frascati Manual)– markets & industries
(i.e. NACE Classification)– policy impacts– other impacts– results and limitations
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
EFMN 2006: Increasing the number of cases
• 767 cases in L2 & L3• Great progress in mapping• Key lessons:
– Need for quality control of the data– Need for sophisticated analysis
2005 2006 2007 20082004
100
767
> 1400 L0 & L1
437
> 800 L0 & L1
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
2007 Report: Mapping European Foresight
2005 2006 2007 20082004
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
2007 Report: Mapping Country-level Foresight
uk
Top 10 Methods
14
16
16
20
20
24
25
49
50
49
0 60 120
Essays
Interview s
Brainstorming
Trend Extrapolation
Megatrend Analysis
Futures Workshops
Questionnaire / Survey
Scenarios
Expert Panels
Literature Review
Terr itorial scope
1
181
97
3
0 60 120
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Num ber of participants
61
2136
0 60 120
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
18
10
40
39
52
74
2
11
0 60 120
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
10
14
15
38
61
64
104
4
0 60 120
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
ge
Top 10 Methods
4
6
6
8
9
12
13
15
20
14
0 20 40
Citizens Panels
Trend Extrapolation
Questionnaire / Survey
Futures Workshops
Brainstorming
Delphi
Expert Panels
Scenarios
Other methods
Literature Review
Territorial scope
2
196
10
2
0 20 40
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Num ber of participants
37
712
0 20 40
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
2
10
3
6
12
11
27
2
0 20 40
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
7
5
6
8
21
17
35
5
0 20 40
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
2005 2006 2007 20082004
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
2008 Analysis: Mapping collaboration between Countries
2005 2006 2007 20082004
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
2008 Analysis: “Spiky Foresight”
2005 2006 2007 20082004
High GERD > 2.4% Medium Low GERD < 1.5%
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Towards the European Foresight ‘Periodic Table’?
sp
Top 10 M ethods
4
5
7
9
16
16
22
28
29
24
0 18.5 37
SWOT Analysis
Interview s
Scenarios
Ques tionnaire / Survey
Megatrend Analysis
Brainstorming
Key Technologies
Delphi
Literature Review
Expert Panels
Te rr itorial s cope
6
27
2
1
1
0 18.5 37
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
11
920
0 18.5 37
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
0
0
25
7
4
27
29
1
0 18.5 37
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
12
7
3
19
29
27
35
2
0 18.5 37
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
at Top 10 Me thods
2
2
3
3
5
5
6
6
6
6
0 5 10
Interview s
Env ironmental Scanning
SWOT Analy sis
Brainstorming
Sc enarios
Other methods
Literature Review
Futures Workshops
Expert Panels
Delphi
Terr itor ial scope
1
12
6
0 5 10
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Num be r of participants
11
5
0 5 10
< 5051-200
201-500> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
2
1
2
2
3
0 5 10
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Prior ities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audie nce
2
2
3
3
5
6
10
0 5 10
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
be
Top 10 M ethods
4
4
5
5
7
7
7
8
11
8
0 8.5 17
Key Technologies
Interview s
Delphi
Brainstorming
Environmental Scanning
Scenarios
Expert Panels
Other methods
Futures Workshops
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
12
52
7
0 8.5 17
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
12
27
0 8.5 17
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
6
2
3
9
4
1
8
0 8.5 17
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Res earc h & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analy sis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
2
4
7
9
15
1
1
2
0 8.5 17
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
bg
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
2
2
2
0 1.5 3
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Brainstorming
Delphi
Environmental Scanning
Expert Panels
Scenarios
SWOT Analysis
Te rr itor ial scope
12
0 1.5 3
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
1
0 1.5 3
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
2
0 1.5 3
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
1
1
3
3
1
1
0 1.5 3
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Res earch Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
cy
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
0 1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Other methods
Expert Panels
Delphi
Te rr itorial s cope
1
0 1
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
0 1
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
1
1
0 1
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
0 1
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
cz
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
4
4
3
0 2.5 5
Environmental Scanning
Delphi
Citiz ens Panels
Key Technologies
Scenarios
Other methods
Literature Review
Brainstorming
SWOT Analysis
Expert Panels
Te rr itorial s cope
0
02
3
0 2.5 5
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
3
11
0 2.5 5
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
1
1
1
3
0 2.5 5
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
2
1
2
1
3
4
5
1
0 2.5 5
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
dk
Top 10 M ethods
2
2
2
2
4
5
5
6
7
6
0 9 18
Other methods
Interview s
Environmental Sc anning
Delphi
Technology Roadmapping
Scenarios
Key Technologies
Literature Rev iew
Ex pert Panels
Futures Workshops
Te rr itorial s cope
2
113
0 9 18
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
2
15
0 9 18
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
8
2
4
12
6
10
14
0 9 18
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
12
16
18
1
0 9 18
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
ee
Top 10 M ethods
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
3
0 3 6
Citizens Panels
SWOT Analysis
Ques tionnaire / Survey
Expert Panels
Delphi
Scenarios
Other methods
Literature Review
Futures Workshops
Brainstorming
Te rr itorial s cope
24
0 3 6
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
2
0 3 6
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
0
2
1
3
2
4
0 3 6
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
2
1
2
1
2
3
6
1
0 3 6
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
fi
Top 10 M ethods
2
3
4
4
7
8
10
17
23
15
0 17.5 35
Key Technologies
Interview s
SWOT Analy sis
Brainstorming
Delphi
Other methods
Sc enarios
Futures Workshops
Literature Review
Expert Panels
Te rr itorial s cope
2
42
25
2
0 17.5 35
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
11
18
0 17.5 35
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
2
2
2
12
5
17
19
1
0 17.5 35
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Res earc h & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analy sis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
3
3
3
11
21
25
33
2
0 17.5 35
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
fr
Top 10 M ethods
5
5
7
8
8
10
12
21
24
13
0 22 44
Key Technologies
Interview s
Futures Workshops
Megatrend Analysis
Brainstorming
Other methods
Trend Extrapolation
Expert Panels
Literature Review
Scenarios
Te rr itorial s cope
5
32
2
1
4
0 22 44
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
34
39
0 22 44
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
6
11
5
13
21
24
30
6
0 22 44
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
11
13
7
7
16
21
40
5
0 22 44
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
ge
Top 10 M ethods
4
6
6
8
9
12
13
15
20
14
0 20 40
Citizens Panels
Trend Extrapolation
Ques tionnaire / Survey
Futures Workshops
Brainstorming
Delphi
Expert Panels
Scenarios
Other methods
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
2
196
10
2
0 20 40
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
37
712
0 20 40
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
2
10
3
6
12
11
27
2
0 20 40
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
7
5
6
8
21
17
35
5
0 20 40
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
gr
Top 10 M ethods
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
0 4 8
Citizens Panels
Futures Workshops
Essays
SWOT Analy sis
Literature Review
Key Technologies
Delphi
Sc enarios
Expert Panels
Brainstorming
Te rr itorial s cope
1
25
0 4 8
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
22
2
0 4 8
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
3
5
6
5
7
0 4 8
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
0
3
1
2
4
5
8
4
0 4 8
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
hu
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
0 1 2
SWOT Analysis
Other methods
Futures Workshops
Expert Panels
Environmental Scanning
Citiz ens Panels
Scenarios
Literature Review
Delphi
Brainstorming
Te rr itorial s cope
11
0 1 2
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
11
0 1 2
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
1
1
0 1 2
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Res earc h & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analy sis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
2
1
2
1
2
1
0 1 2
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
ie
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
3
2
0 3.5 7
n/a
Trend Extrapolation
SWOT Analysis
Other methods
Interview s
Ques tionnaire / Survey
Megatrend Analysis
Literature Review
Scenarios
Expert Panels
Te rr itorial s cope
1
1
5
0 3.5 7
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
4
0 3.5 7
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
2
2
3
5
5
0 3.5 7
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
2
3
4
7
0 3.5 7
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
it
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
2
2
2
4
5
7
4
0 4 8
Futures Workshops
Expert Panels
Delphi
SWOT Analy sis
Sc enarios
Interview s
Other methods
Brainstorming
Key Technologies
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
2
3
2
1
0 4 8
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
42
0 4 8
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
2
4
1
0 4 8
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
2
1
1
3
6
6
8
1
0 4 8
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
lv
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0 1
Stakeholder Mapping
Multi-criter ia Analysis
Megatrend Analysis
Literature Review
Futures Workshops
Expert Panels
Environmental Scanning
Delphi
Brainstorming
Backcasting
Te rr itorial s cope
1
0 1
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
0 1
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
1
0 1
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
1
1
0 1
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
lu
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
0 2 4
SWOT Analysis
Scenarios
Key Technologies
Delphi
Citiz ens Panels
Brainstorming
Other methods
Literature Review
Expert Panels
Environmental Scanning
Te rr itorial s cope
11
2
0 2 4
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
2
11
0 2 4
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
2
2
1
2
0 2 4
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
1
3
2
4
1
0 2 4
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
mt
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
0 1.5 3
n/a
Stakeholder Mapping
Other methods
Modelling and simulation
Futures Workshops
Literature Review
SWOT Analysis
Scenarios
Expert Panels
Brainstorming
Te rr itorial s cope
3
0 1.5 3
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
12
0 1.5 3
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
3
1
3
0 1.5 3
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Res earc h & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analy sis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
2
1
2
1
2
3
0 1.5 3
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
nl
Top 10 M ethods
7
10
11
12
22
28
40
70
104
67
0 74 148
Brainstorming
Backcasting
Futures Workshops
Ques tionnaire / Survey
Interview s
Other methods
Trend Extrapolation
Scenarios
Expert Panels
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
1
96364
0 74 148
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
3
1012
0 74 148
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
7
21
10
54
76
104
4
6
0 74 148
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
47
67
137
7
7
2
4
2
0 74 148
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
pl
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
4
4
2
0 2 4
Key Technologies
Environmental Scanning
Delphi
Citiz ens Panels
Scenarios
Other methods
Expert Panels
Brainstorming
SWOT Analysis
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
11
2
0 5 10
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
2
1
0 2 4
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
2
1
3
4
1
0 2 4
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
3
3
2
4
1
0 2 4
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
pt
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
2
0 2.5 5
Expert Panels
Essays
Brainstorming
Backcasting
SWOT Analy sis
Other methods
Interview s
Futures Workshops
Sc enarios
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
1
1
2
1
0 2.5 5
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
3
0 2.5 5
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
5
5
0 2.5 5
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
2
2
1
5
1
0 2.5 5
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
ro
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
0 2 4
n/a
Trend Extrapolation
Questionnaire / Surv ey
Interview s
Expert Panels
Environmental Scanning
Delphi
SWOT Analysis
Scenarios
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
13
0 2 4
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
0 2 4
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
1
1
3
0 2 4
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Res earc h & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analy sis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
1
1
2
4
0 2 4
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
sk
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
0 1 2
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Megatrend Analysis
Literature Review
Essays
Te rr itorial s cope
2
0 1 2
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
n/an/a
n/an/a
0 1 2
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
1
1
1
0 1 2
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
1
2
0 1 2
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
sl
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
3
2
0 2 4
Key Technologies
Futures Workshops
Expert Panels
Environmental Scanning
Citiz ens Panels
Scenarios
Literature Review
Brainstorming
Other methods
Delphi
Te rr itorial s cope
13
0 2 4
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
2
11
0 2 4
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
0
1
2
0
1
2
3
0
0 2 4
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
1
1
4
3
4
1
0 2 4
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
se
Top 10 M ethods
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
0 4.5 9
n/a
Questionnaire / Survey
Interview s
Technology Roadmapping
SWOT Analysis
Scenarios
Key Technologies
Futures Workshops
Literature Rev iew
Ex pert Panels
Te rr itorial s cope
2
122
2
0 4.5 9
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
1
13
0 4.5 9
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
4
0
4
6
3
6
9
0
0 4.5 9
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Research & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analysis of Trends & Driv ers
Policy Recommendations
Targe t audience
2
1
2
5
7
9
0 4.5 9
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
uk
Top 10 M ethods
14
16
16
20
20
24
25
49
50
49
0 60 120
Essays
Interview s
Brainstorming
Trend Extrapolation
Megatrend Analysis
Futures Workshops
Ques tionnaire / Survey
Scenarios
Expert Panels
Literature Review
Te rr itorial s cope
1
181
97
3
0 60 120
EuropeSupra national
Sub-nationalTransborder
National
Number of participants
61
2136
0 60 120
< 50
51-200201-500
> 500
Com m on outputs
18
10
40
39
52
74
2
11
0 60 120
Others
Technology Roadmaps
Forecasts
Lists of Key Technologies
Res earc h & Other Priorities
Scenarios
Analy sis of Trends & Drivers
Policy Recommendations
Target audience
10
14
15
38
61
64
104
4
0 60 120
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
NGOs
Other target audiences
Trade Bodies / Indust. Fed.
Firms
Research Community
Govt Agencies / Depts
2005 2006 2007 20082004
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Now that we have data…Can we answer some questions?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Foresight, Volume 10, issue 6: How are foresight methods selected?
• First argument– methods are chosen based on their ‘‘intrinsic attributes’’
• their nature– Qualitative– Quantitative– Semi-quantitative
• their capabilities, i.e. the ability to gather or process information based on:– Evidence– Expertise– Interaction– Creativity
• Second argument– methods are chosen based on fundamental elements and
conditions influencing the foresight process; in other words, foresight process needs matter.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Two questions related to the attributes of methods:
• How is selection influenced by the nature of methods?• How is selection influenced by the capabilities of methods?
Nine questions related to the elements of foresight processes:
3. How is selection influenced by the Geo-R&D context?4. How is selection influenced by the Domain coverage?5. How is selection influenced by the Territorial scale?6. How is selection influenced by the Time horizon?7. How is selection influenced by the Sponsorship?8. How is selection influenced by the Target groups?9. How is selection influenced by the Participation scale?10.How is selection influenced by the Codified outputs?11.How is selection influenced by the Methods mix?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Qualitative vs. Quantitative• Suppose that a particular event E gives an
empirical plot E (filled line).
g1
g2
• Suppose we have two theories, t1 and t2, leading to the plots g1 and g2, respectively (dotted lines)– plot g1 fits better quantitatively– plot g2 has the same shape and
appearance.
E
y
x
• However, as René Thom (1975) points out, the theorist would be likely to retain t2 rather than t1 even at the expense of a greater quantitative error.
• The rationale would be that t2 must be a better clue to the underlying mechanisms of Ethan the quantitatively more “exact” t1.
The difference between
predictions and observations in ∫│E - g1│
is smaller than that of ∫│E – g2│Interval
Is selection influenced by the nature? 1
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Yes, it seems so!
Popper (2008)
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Pre-Foresight
RationalesSponsor(s)ObjectivesOrientationResources- Core team *- Time- Money- Infrastructure- Cultural- PoliticalApproachesTime horizonMethodologyWorkplan- Activities- Tasks- DeliverablesScope- Context- Coverage
Recruitment
Project team *- skillsPartners Sub-contractorsSteering GroupExperts- Thematic- Sectoral- Regional- National- InternationalChampions- Thematic- …InternationalPanelsMethodologistFacilitatorsRapporteurs
Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning
Step 5: evaluating
Generation
Existing knowledgeis amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codifiedNew knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.)
Action
Advising- Strategies- Policy Options- Recommendations- …
Transforming- Networking- Policy-making- Decision-making- …
Renewal
Learning- Process- ProductsEvaluation- Impacts - Efficiency - AppropriatenessDissemination- Shared Visions- Foresight Culture- …
KNOWLEDGE
The Foresight Diamond
R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)
Methods relying heavily on the inventiveness and ingenuity of
very skilled individuals
Methods relying heavily on codified information,
data, indicators, etc.
Methods relying heavily on the tacit
knowledge of people with privileged
access to relevant information or with
accumulated knowledge
Methods relying
heavily on the
participation and shared
views of experts and non-experts
Is selection influenced by the source of knowledge? 2
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Yes (even if unintentionally!)
Popper (2008)
On “average”foresight studies
use from 5 to 6 methods
Is selection influenced by the source of knowledge?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Pre-Foresight Recruitment
Step 1: scoping the objectives and activities of the exercise
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key players
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning
Step 5: learning
Generation Action Renewal
KNOWLEDGE &SHARED VISION
prospectiveapproaches
target groups
methods mix
codified outputs
participation scale
geo-R&Dcontext
domain coverage
territorialscale
time horizon
sponsorship
Fundamental Elements of a Foresight Process
ASPIRATION
ENGAGEMENT &INTERACTION
participative&
networkingapproaches
COMMITMENT &TRANSFORMATION
planning&
decision-making approaches
INTELLIGENCE & WISDOM
evaluativeapproaches
Let us focus on the Methods Mix
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Is selection influenced by key elements of the Process?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Popper (2008)
Mapping Methods Combinations
Frequency of combinations
L (or blank) = below 19%M = 20-39%H = 40-59%VH = above 60%
Is selection influenced by the ‘methods mix’?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Popper (2008)
Visualising the “Methods Mix”
Popper (2008)
Frequency of combinations
L (or blank) = below 19%M = 20-39%H = 40-59%VH = above 60%
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Popper (2008)
Popper (2008)
Popper (2008)
Mapping methods used with Roadmapping
Frequency of combinations
L (or blank) = below 19%M = 20-39%H = 40-59%VH = above 60%
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
How to design aforesight methodology?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)
The Foresight Diamond
http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=3977
Let us explore 2 demo cases
with 6 methods
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Scanning
Scanning
Delphi
Wild Cards
Citizen panel
Expert panel
SWOT
Methodology X(Forward)
Delphi
Methodology X (Forward) Evidence+
Broad Expertise
Detailed analysis of main issues around a particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted).
Large-scale exploratory study assessing the likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of main issues highlighted by the scanning activity.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Scanning
Scanning
Delphi
Wild Cards
Citizen panel
Expert panel
SWOT
Methodology X(Forward) Wild cards
Delphi
Methodology X (Forward) Evidence+
Broad Expertise+
Wild Creativity
Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying possible events which may challenge the occurrence of ‘highly probable’ situations.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Scanning
Scanning
Delphi
Wild Cards
Citizen panel
Expert panel
SWOT
Methodology X(Forward) Wild cards
Citizen PanelDelphi
Methodology X (Forward) Evidence+
Broad Expertise+
Wild Creativity+
Interaction
Conference-type activity aimed at identifying major public concerns on critical issues.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Scanning
Scanning
Delphi
Wild Cards
Citizen panel
Expert panel
SWOT
Methodology X(Forward) Wild cards
Citizen PanelExpert Panel
Delphi
Methodology X (Forward) Evidence+
Broad Expertise+
Wild Creativity+
Interaction+
Local Expertise
Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at future implications of main findings.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Scanning
Scanning
Delphi
Wild Cards
Citizen panel
Expert panel
SWOT
Methodology X(Forward)
SWOT
Wild cards
Citizen PanelExpert Panel
Delphi
Methodology X (Forward) Evidence+
Broad Expertise+
Wild Creativity+
Interaction+
Local Expertise+
Strategic Creativity
Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at synthesising outcomes in terms of current strengths and weaknesses as well as future opportunities and threats.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
What if we combine the same six methodsthe other way around?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
SWOT
Expert panels
Citizen panels
Wild Cards
Delphi
Scanning
SWOT
Expert Panels
Methodology X(Backward)
Methodology X (Backward)Strategic Creativity
+Local Expertise
Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to a sector / theme / technology / etc.
Groups of experts looking at future implications of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into broader dimensions, such as social, technological, economic, etc.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
SWOT
Expert panels
Citizen panels
Wild Cards
Delphi
Scanning
SWOT
Expert PanelsCitizen Panels
Methodology X(Backward)
Methodology X (Backward)Strategic Creativity
+Local Expertise
+Interaction
Regional task forces contextualising main issues and evaluating public acceptance.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
SWOT
Expert panels
Citizen panels
Wild Cards
Delphi
Scanning
SWOT
Expert Panels
Wild cards
Citizen Panels
Methodology X(Backward)
Methodology X (Backward)Strategic Creativity
+Local Expertise
+Interaction
+Wild Creativity
internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive events and situations.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
SWOT
Expert panels
Citizen panels
Wild Cards
Delphi
Scanning
SWOT
Expert PanelsDelphi
Wild cards
Citizen Panels
Methodology X(Backward)
Methodology X (Backward)Strategic Creativity
+Local Expertise
+Interaction
+Wild Creativity
+Broad Expertise
Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating policy recommendations.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
SWOT
Expert panels
Citizen panels
Wild Cards
Delphi
Scanning
SWOT
Expert PanelsDelphi
Wild cards
Citizen Panels
Scanning
Methodology X(Backward)
Methodology X (Backward)Strategic Creativity
+Local Expertise
+Interaction
+Wild Creativity
+Broad Expertise
+Evidence
Internal activity aimed at identifying the success or failure of similar policy recommendations being implemented in comparable contexts, and better informing decision-making.
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
There are many methodology options, indeed!
Scanning
SWOT
Scenario writing
Workshops
Backcasting
Extrapolation
Literature review
Scenario workshops
Roadmapping
9 methods
Benchmarking
SWOT
Scenario writing
Extrapolation
Roadmapping
Expert panels
Brainstorming
WorkshopsWorkshops
8 methods
Benchmarking
Scenario writing
Delphi
Extrapolation
Expert panel
Interviews
Workshops
7 methods
Benchmarking
Scenario writing
SurveyDelphi
Literature review
Scenario workshops
BackcastingBrainstorming
8 methods
SWOT
Expert PanelsExpert PanelsDelphiDelphi
Wild cardsWild cards
Citizen PanelsCitizen Panels
ScanningScanning
vs.
6 methods
?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
What about the futureforesight methodologies?
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
We need more Science Fictioning (SF) in Foresight
• Dealing with stories assuming that possible events which have not yet materialised have taken place, usually at some point in the future, and elaborates on the consequences of this.
– it is quite common to prepare brief vignettes using SF-like techniques to illustrate one or other point of the imagined future world.
– Such vignettes generally lack narrative drive, but may have considerable illustrative force.
• Commercial SF is often used, mostly informally, as a source of inspiration by people thinking about the future.
• The main challenge
– locating the high-quality SF
• see also Livingstone, 1971, 1978; Miles, 1993; Steinmüller, 1997
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
We need research on Wild Cards & Weak Signals (WI-WE)
• Usually carried out by small groups of highly skilled people capable of combining expertise, examining data and creative thinking.
• The search for weak signals may be undertaken as part of the process of scanning. It involves the identification of “not necessarily important things” which do not seem to have a strong impact in the present but which could be the trigger for major events in the future (e.g. changes in public attitudes to one thing or another, an emerging pattern of concern about emerging health problems). Finding weak signals is one of the most challenging tasks in futures research and their analysis often leads to the identification of wild cards.
• Wildcards are surprising and unexpected events with low probability of occurrence but with very high impact (e.g. the 2001 attack on the World Trade Centre on September 11, sudden shifts in the dominance of nations or political ideologies, major disasters in environmental or technological systems). These are usually identified by such means as brainstorming, science fictioning and genius forecasting. It has been suggested that gaming and role playing may encourage participants to think of novel patterns of behaviour and responses (see also Ansoff, 1975; Rockfellow, 1994; Petersen, 1999; Cornish, 2003; Mendonca et al., 2004; Steinmüller, 2004; Hiltunen, 2006; Ilmola and Kuusi, 2006)
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
interconnecting Knowledge for the early identification of issues, events and developments
(i.e. wild cards & associated weak signals)shaping and shaking the future of
science, technology and innovation (STI)in the European Research Area (ERA)
We need new ways of interconnecting knowledge
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
WI-WE research should look at complexity & other theories
Social
Technological
Economic
PoliticalEnvironmental
Values(Cultural/Ethical)
Demographic
planned or unplannedissue or event (WI-WE)
Social
Technological
Economic
PoliticalEnvironmental
Values(Cultural/Ethical)
Demographic
planned or unplannedsingle or multiple impacts
www.iknowfutures.com
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
very
low
practically
none
WI-2c WI-2b WI-2a
iKnow WI-WE mapping framework‘P
erce
ived
Pro
babi
lity’
WI-3c WI-3b WI-3a Gradual development
Rapid development
Changing relations
Transforming systems
Creating systems
Type o
f Dev
elopmen
tWI-1c WI-1b WI-1a Surprisingappearance
Weak Signal
P Policy
Disruption
WI Wild Card
WI-1ct WI-1bt WI-1at
P P P
PP
Legend
WI-1aWI-1bWI-1cWI-2aWI-2bWI-2cWI-3aWI-3bWI-3c
WI-1at
WI-1bt
WI-1ct
WI-2at
WI-2bt
WI-2ct
WI-3at
WI-3bt
WI-3ct
WI-T0 WI-T1 WEiKnow FrameworkMulti
Layer
1
2
3
Type of Impact
www.iknowfutures.com
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
• There is no “ideal” methodological framework providing the “best” combination of methods.
• There is no “ideal” number of methods to be used in a project
• So, the methodology must be chosen after objectives are defined and not the other way around
• The selection of methods may be affected by resources, such as:– project budget
– availability of expertise
– political support
– technological and physical infrastructure, and
– time.
• Having valuable human resources is essential and although such people do not necessarily need to be foresight specialists, they will often require intensive training courses in order to build internal capacities and know-how.
Final remarks (1/3)
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
We need more and improved prospective analysis• Scanning (with better use of web-based tools).
– E.g. advanced data and text mining tools to analyse documents;
– E.g. statistical aids for network/cluster analysis and visualisation structures;
– co-word and co-citation methods (for instance, to provide guidance as to new clusters of ideas in scientific areas).
• Modelling (using econometric analysis and system dynamics). Computer tools are employed to create and visualise a large set of scenarios, drawing on different assumptions about how the world
• Roadmapping (with more sophisticated computer aids to organise and visualise the process and its results)
• Expert opinion tools – such as Delphi – drawing upon computers and networking, e.g. web-based questionnaire surveys and more discursive approaches.
• Expert systems – to guide practitioners and managers through the process of carrying out foresight – from decision support for managing the foresight process, to aids for application of specific techniques.
Final remarks (2/3)
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
We need more than interconnection of knowledge
Final remarks (3/3)
But, we also need interconnection of skills
Wisdom
iFQ 2008R. Popper - Germany
Thank you! [email protected]