Forecasting Sustainable Urbanization:
Inception and Data Collection Workshop
Support For Sustainable Infrastructure Planning In Cities
17-18 February 2020State Institution, Dushanbe Plaza
Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Opening and project introductionSession 1
Project introduction
1. Why focus on resource use?
2. Why focus on cities?
3. Why use forecasting?
United Nations ESCAP− United Nations Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific− UN’s regional hub− 53 member States, 9 associate members− HQ in Bangkok, 4 subregional offices (Almaty)− ESCAP promotes cooperation among
countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development:• Policy dialogues, regional cooperation,
intergovernmental platforms• Results-oriented projects, technical assistance,
capacity building• Research and analysis, knowledge sharing
− Interdisciplinary expertise covering urban, environment, energy, disaster risk reduction, trade, transport etc.
Incheon
BangkokESCAP HQ
Chiba
Beijing
Bogor
New Delhi
ESCAP Headquarters, Regional or sub-regional offices
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Wuhan
Mumbai Hyderabad
Karachi
Vladivostok
Osaka
Sapporo
Anchorage
Sydney
Melbourne
Perth
Surabaya
Auckland
Istanbul
Canberra
Wellington
Port Moresby
Nouméa
Pago Pago
Port-Vila
Apia
AlofiAvarua
Funafuti
Majuro
Papeete
Tarawa
Yaren
JakartaDili
Kuala LumpurBandar Seri Begawan
Hanoi
Manila
Vientiane
Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte
Seoul Tokyo
Ulaanbaatar
Male
Colombo
Baku
Moscow
Ashgabat
Astana
Ankara
T'bilisi Bishkek
Dushanbe
Tashkent
Yerevan
Suva
Nuku'alofa
Koror
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Hawaiian Islands
Northern Line Islands
Southern Line Islands
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Mindanao
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Macao, China
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSIONFOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
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The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Controlin Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan.The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet beenagreed upon by the parties.
AfghanistanArmeniaAustraliaAzerbaijanBangladeshBhutanBrunei DarussalamCambodiaChinaDemocratic People's Republic of KoreaFederated States of MicronesiaFijiFranceGeorgiaIndiaIndonesiaIslamic Republic of IranJapanKazakhstanKiribatiKyrgyzstanLao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMaldivesMarshall IslandsMongoliaMyanmar
NauruNepalNetherlandsNew ZealandPakistanPalauPapua New GuineaPhilippinesRepublic of KoreaRussian FederationSamoaSingaporeSolomon IslandsSri LankaTajikistanThailandTimor-LesteTongaTurkeyTurkmenistanTuvaluUnited KingdomUnited States of AmericaUzbekistanVanuatuViet Nam
American SamoaCommonwealth of the Northern Mariana IslandsCook IslandsFrench Polynesia
GuamHong Kong, ChinaMacao, ChinaNew CaledoniaNiue
Members:
Associate members:
Map No. 3974 Rev. 18 UNITED NATIONS August 2014
Department of Field SupportCartographic Section
Project aim−To support the implementation of resource efficient and
environmentally friendly planning policies for sustainable cities−3 project cities:• Dushanbe in Tajikistan• Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan• Xiamen city in China
−Why did we identify Dushanbe to join this project?• High resource intensities in Tajikistan
Project implementation in Dushanbe
1) collect data on urbanization, resource flows, and environmental trends in Dushanbe
2) apply a forecasting tool to better understand future impacts of urban growth
3) develop policy pathways based on forecasted resource efficiency scenarios to plan sustainable infrastructure and achieve city targets
4) disseminate the lessons learned and the forecasting tool throughout the Asia-Pacific region, spotlighting the experience in Dushanbe
Objectives of the workshop
1. To broaden understanding of the relationship between urbanization and resource consumption, and to review the policy environment of urbanization, resource flows, and environmental trends in Dushanbe;
2. To identify data to support a baseline analysis and projections for resource use and intensities in Dushanbe based on population and GDP estimates to 2025 and 2030; and
3. To develop a project plan and establish a Working Group to support the project’s implementation in Dushanbe.
1. Why focus on resource use?
Historic model of development
−Historic models of development focused on economic growth
−Assumption was that economic growth would naturally lead to social development and poverty reduction
Sustainable development “Sustainable development meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs”Brundtland Report, 1987
Resource Efficiency
Source: World Green Economy Organization (WGEO) & ESCAP
Measuring resource efficiency
Resource intensity
Resource useEconomic output (GDP)
=
−The lower the resource intensity, the better
−A decrease in resource intensity over time means you are becoming more resource efficient
Population of Dushanbe
0.60.6
0.70.8
0.91.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mill
ions
Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision
Tajikistan GDP (2011 PPP dollars)
7,334
10,964
14,560
18,584
24,131
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
(201
1 PP
P do
llars
)
Source: ESCAP Online Statistical Database
Material intensity (DMC per GDP)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Kg p
er 1
USD
(201
0) G
DP
Tajikistan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific
Source: ESCAP Online Statistical Database
Material intensity
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific average
Source: World Green Economy Organization (WGEO) & ESCAP
Resource decouplingUsing fewer resources (e.g. materials, water, energy, land) to maintain economic growth
+
–
future
GDPresource use
relative decoupling
absolute decoupling
sufficient absolute
decoupling
today
planetary boundaries
Example of resource decoupling: CO2 emissions
In 2019, CO2 emissions were unchanged, but the world economy grew by 2.9%
= relative decoupling
Source: IEA
Example of resource decoupling: material use
Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling
Impact decouplingUsing resources wisely over their lifetime to reduce environmental impacts
Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling
Example of impact decoupling: air pollution
Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling
2. Why focus on cities?
Resource use in cities
−Cities are the powerhouses of economic growth, with 80% of global GDP being produced within them
−But cities also account for most of the world’s resource use, e.g.: • 60-80% of global energy consumption
• 75% of carbon emissions
Material consumption in cities−Cities account for about 60%
of total consumption of raw materials (including sand, gravel, iron ore, coal and wood)
−Material use is accelerating:• China used more cement
between 2011-2013 than the USA used during the whole 20th century
Source: IRP (2018). The Weight of Cities
Waste generation in cities
−The world's cities generate 2.01 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste annually• at least 1/3 not managed in an
environmentally safe manner
−This is expected to grow to 3.40 billion tonnes by 2050
Water resource use in cities− Increasing groundwater stress with unsustainable withdrawals
of freshwater• 29/48 countries were “water insecure” in Asia in 2016
−Freshwater sources in Asia have been already over-extracted and this situation will be worsened by increased urbanization, population growth, food production and climate change
−There is insufficient infrastructure to meet demand for domestic water, manufacturing, and thermal electricity generation• By 2050, 3.4 billion Asians could suffer from water stress
Land use and urban sprawl
Dushanbe: 1984 vs 2018
Source: Google Timelapse
Asia-Pacific is rapidly urbanizing
Source: ESCAP, 2019, The Future of Asian & Pacific Cities
A moment of opportunity for cities−decisions made now will have long-term impacts, and Asia-Pacific
cities have an opportunity to set themselves on more sustainable and inclusive trajectories
−most urban infrastructure investments, especially environmental ones, are capital intensive and long-term
−poor investment choices can create a lock-in effect and increase the challenge to establish sustainable development and resource-efficient trajectories
−using resources more efficiently saves municipalities money• e.g. reducing waste management and water treatment costs
Cities can drive sustainable development
Therefore, the decisions and actions required to drive society towards more sustainable patterns of production and consumption will have to be made, to a large extent, in the world’s cities
3. Why use forecasting?
Why use forecasting?− Planning
• Develop scenarios
• Translate targets for efficiencies in resource use into policy actions
• Prioritize actions and investments – potential cost savings
− Strengthen the evidence base• Data-informed decision-making
• Leverage political support
• Leverage financial resources
− Validate existing initiatives
Forecasting tool
a) User inputs historic data and projections for population growth and economic growth
b) User inputs historic data on resource use across 6 resource trends:i. material useii. solid waste generationiii. energy consumptioniv. greenhouse gas emissionsv. water consumptionvi. land use
c) Business-as-usual scenario through to 2030 generated and visualized
1. Business-as-usual scenario
2. Alternative scenarios forecasteda) User selects from a list of policy alternatives and technical
solutions to forecast scenarios with altered resource intensities
b) Scenarios through to 2030 generated and visualized
c) Policy pathways are developed to support the achievement of Bishkek’s existing plans and targets
Therefore, the tool will enable you to ‘reverse plan’ – to translate city targets into policies and infrastructure planning
Examples of potential solutions to be featured in the forecasting tool−Solid waste: incentives for waste segregation at source;
ensuring adequate waste collection infrastructure is in place for segregated waste
−Energy: green building standards; replacing street lighting with LED lights
−Water: treating wastewater from public buildings on-site for re-use; maintenance of water delivery systems to repair leaks and reduce water losses; capturing rainwater to replenish aquifers