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Fertility trends and their implications for
development
John Bongaarts
Population Council
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Outline
Background
(fertility trends and population growth)
Consequences of demographic trends
(High / intermediate / low fertility)
Policy options
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Population growth rates 2005-2010
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High fertility
Intermediate fertility
Low fertility
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Demographic consequences of high fertility
Rapid population growth
Young age structure
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Development consequences of demographic trends
High fertility countries
Governmental: Lagging investment in education,
health services and infrastructure
Economic: Low wages, unemployment,poverty, slow growth
Environmental: Depletion of natural resources,pollution
Political: Rising political extremism andcivil strife
Health: High maternal and child mortality
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Demographic consequences of intermediate/
declining fertility
Declining growth rates
Fewer young people, more workers
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Population by age: Mexico
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Development consequences of demographic trendsIntermediate/declining fertility
Governmental: Massive investments in education,health services and infrastructure
Economic: Rapid growth, rising wages, highinequality. Increasing engagement o
women in wage-paying work Environmental: Depletion of natural resources,
air, water and soil pollution
Political: Inequality and disaffected voters
Health: Declining maternal and child mortali
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Consequences of low fertility
Near zero or negative population growth rates
Rapid population aging
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Population by age: Italy
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A. High fertility countries
B. Below replacement fertility countries
Policy options :
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Family planning programs
Investments in human capital
A. Policy options in high fertility countries:
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Family planning programs contribute to:
Improving maternal and child health Reducing poverty and inequality
Achieving gender equality
Ensuring environmental sustainability
Combating HIV/AIDS
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B. Policy options in aging societies
Demographic options
Encourage childbearing; permit more immigration.
Pension system options:Raise age at eligibility; encourage private savings; reduce
benefits; raise taxes.
Labor force optionsEncourage higher labor force participation and later
age at retirement.
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Pronatalist policy options
1) Reduce obstacles to childbearing
-Economic: childcare, maternity and paternity leave,
child subsidies, etc.
-Biological: subsidize infertility treatment and
development of new biotechnology
2) Eliminate or reverse tempo effect
-Encourage earlier start of childbearing andbirth intervals of two or three years at most
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Conclusions
Declining high fertility brings multiple positive
consequences for human welfare and the
environment
Very low fertility has net adverse effects
Policies are available to maximize positive effectsand minimize negative effects