Peter Cochrane
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s
Evolving Connectivity
Thursday, 11 November 2010
When machines…
…come to our rescue!
Possible subtitle:
Thursday, 11 November 2010
A few axiomatic things I need to get off my chest…
….that may give you a wider perspective(?)
Thursday, 11 November 2010
We build top down to create complex things to complete simple tasks…
Mother Nature builds bottom up to create simple things to achieve the complex!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
We are now the limiters of progress…technology is advancing faster than we can respond...
..but it may not be that way forever!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
No individual can ever understand these!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Everybody is on line...
>4Bn people have mobile phones and >50% are internet ready!
Soon it will be everything!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…
If we have a long-term future it lies with our technology and machines and their ability to help us extend our knowledge & understanding
Thursday, 11 November 2010
A false sense of confidence!
Our educational perception
The unknown
The known The unknown
The known
Our post-education experience
Thursday, 11 November 2010
No human leader, from the past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to govern a complex planet!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
No human scientist, past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to understand a complex planet!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
There are lots of simple solutions to complex problems…
…and they are all wrong!
Single issue thinking is now dead or dangerous
Thursday, 11 November 2010
People look at problems through one of these:
When they actually need one of these:
Thursday, 11 November 2010
The changing shape of societies…
HunterGatherer
EarlyCivilizations
IndustrialRevolution
Inherentlylinear & wellbehaved…
Optimizing individualparts canoptimize
the whole
Intuitionmostly works
Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale
Thursday, 11 November 2010
The changing shape of societies…Inherentlynon-linear &
not wellbehaved…
Optimizing individual
parts neveroptimizes the whole
Intuitionmostly
fails
InformationSociety
Connectivity
Phone ∝N2
Internet∝Nn
Thursday, 11 November 2010
The changing shape of societies…
This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes
mobile andintelligent
and sensory
SemanticSociety
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...
Autonomous: Sensors Computing power
Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support
Thursday, 11 November 2010
How will we dealwith the complex ?
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Hypothesis
The combined intelligence of all humanity isinsufficient
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Hypothesis
The combined intelligence of all humanity isinsufficient
Our only hope isthe combinedintelligence
of our machines
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Time
ConnectedPopulation Social Networks
StaticNetworkGrowth
DynamicNetworkGrowth
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Time
Connections M
My LinkedIn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
06/07 07/08 08/09
GrowthModel
MeasuredPoints
20% of totalPopulation
Thursday, 11 November 2010
How many people in your network,
and how many things/devices?
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Time
Human v
MachinesFutures
# HumansChipsComputersRobotsNano-BotsBio-Bots
# Robots
# Machines
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Linear
Our very recent awakening...
Non-LinearChaotic SystemsChaotic Systems
All life systemsCreativityBehavioursProblem solving+++++
Machine abilities & knowledge
Human abilities & knowledge
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Linear
Our very recent awakening...
Non-LinearChaotic SystemsChaotic Systems
All life systemsCreativityBehavioursProblem solving+++++
Machine abilities & knowledge
Human abilities & knowledge
Thursday, 11 November 2010
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about: - sensors? - adaptability?
Thursday, 11 November 2010
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
Thursday, 11 November 2010
What can machines do now?
Thursday, 11 November 2010
What can machines do now?
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Genetically ~99.4% human
If ~0.6% matters so much…
no wonder IT systems are so dumb!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Experience??
Intelligence?
Processing
Sensors
Communicationwith others
Data
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
Senses
Processing
Intelligence
Experience
Gradually our machinesare sensing more than us!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Thank you….
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
Thursday, 11 November 2010