Evolution and effects of renewables in Germany
Dr. Hans Wolf von Koeller, STEAG GmbH, Energy Policy
26th September 2019
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The outer appearance of the so-called “Energiewende”…
5
Statistics and
percentagesClimate
ambitions
Export of
German wind
technology
Renewable
kWh/year
The outer appearance of the so-called Energiewende is very different
to the inner appearance!
6
Stable legal
framework
Balanced
electricity systemCommercial
viability
Sufficient and
reliable supply
The success of Renewable Energy is impressing - regarding the
growing percentages
7
Shares of renewable energies in the
electricity, heat and transport sectors
Source: AGEE-Stat (Icons von Freepik/flaticon.com und Sabathius/openclipart.org) – from www.umweltbundesamt.de 09.2019
This is mainly based on the increase in wind generation
8
© BMWi based on Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); as at February 2018; all figures provisional
But: Installed capacity and power generation from wind and solar
energy are imbalanced – regarding Germany in total
9
The electricity mix in
Germany 2018
Half of the generation
capacity is accounted
for by the energy
sources wind and solar,
which only contribute
around 24% to gross
electricity generation
Net bottleneck capacity – general supply
(total 207 GW)1
gross electricity generation(total 649 bn kWh)2
Water 3%[19.5 bn kWh]
Gas 13%[84.4 bn kWh]
Nuclear 12%[78 bn kWh]
Lignite 22%[143 bn kWh]
Hard Coal 13%[84.4 bn kWh]
Wind 17%[110 bn kWh]
Solar 7%[45.4 bn kWh]
Other 12%[84.4 bn kWh]
1: Source: Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE; www.energy-charts.de 15.02.2019
[Data source: AGEE, BMWi, Bundesnetzagentur; last update: 31st Jan 2019 10:16]
Gas
14%[29.6 GW]
Wind
29%[59 GW]
Solar
22%[46 GW]
Nuclear
4%[9.5 GW]
Lignite
10%[21 GW]
Hard coal
12%[24 GW]
Water
3%[5.5 GW]
Other
6%[12 GW]
2: provisional, partly estimated - Source: BDEW; [Data source:
BDEW-Schnellstatistikerhebung, Stat. Bundesamt, EEX, VGB,
ZSW; Stand: 12/2018]
Without the Columbian water resources: In Germany conventional
production is essential
10
Source: Bundesnetzagentur, Online-Strommarktplatform SMARD, https://www.smard.de/home/marktdaten/.
Two pillars of the energy industry are being
removed at the same time
• Germany is withdrawing from nuclear power and
coal
• Gas last essential controllable energy
• Renewables continue to advance, but security of
supply remains an unsolved problem
• Suitable electricity storage technologies are
unfortunately not in sight
Friday 8th February 1pm Thursday 24th January 9 pm
Generation from
renewable energies
Generation from
renewable energies
Conventional
generation
Conventional
generation
Net electricity production in Germany – very intermittend and
balanced by fossil power plants
11
Low wind: high conventional
feed-in
Strong wind and solar feed-in, reduced
conventional feed-in, but stand-by
necessary
Easter
-35
GW
Nuclear Power Lignite Hard coal Gas Wind Solar
Basis: Destatis, EEX-Transparenzplattform, BDEW, Thomson Reuters, own calculations, 09.05.2019
Fuel switch is already on-going due to the price constellation (Gas –
Hard Coal – CO2 – Electricity)
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1.6
.2019
2.6
.2019
3.6
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4.6
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5.6
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6.6
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7.6
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8.6
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9.6
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30.6
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Erdgas Steinkohle
[GWh/h] German netto power production, June 2019
Basis: Destatis, EEX-
Transparenzplattform, BDEW,
Thomson Reuters, own
calculations, 09.07.2019
Natural gas is mainly leading the merit-
order compared to hard coal,
consequences: higher volatility of hard
coal plants
Hard coalGas
The Payments für the Renewable Feed-in are increasing significantly
13
Electricity prices for residential customers, quantitatively weighted
across all tariffs, assuming they consume 3,500 kWh per year
14
© Monitoring Report 2017 of Bundesnetzagentur and Bundeskartellamt; https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Infografiken/Energie/energiedaten-energietraeger-34.html
Top rank in
Europe
Emission of greenhouse gases covered by the UN Framework
Convention on Climate are decreasing in the Energy industry but not
in Transport and other
15Source: German Environment Agency, 09.2019; https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/indicator-greenhouse-gas-emissions
One of the most important jobs to do: To keep the grid, the
consumption and the power production regionally balanced
Source: Bundesnetzagentur, Netzentwicklungsplan 2030
today2030
Capacity deficit Capacity oversupply
Grid reserve: Overview of Redispatch calls from Weiher III and Bexbach
since grid reserve entry at the end of April 2017 - massive increase in 2019
17
2017
2018
2019
Parallel request of Weiher III and Bexbach!
grid reserve
entry (Weiher
& Bexbach)
MW
Continous balancing of energy system: It is decisive to combine
demand and supply in a timely and local manner
18
Eff
icie
nc
y
Su
pp
ort
RE
N/C
HP
su
pp
ort
tec
hn
.
sp
ec
ific
s
…Sit
e
co
nd
itio
ns
Ma
rke
t m
od
el
/le
vie
s
En
vir
on
-
me
nta
l
law
/ET
S
tec
hn
.
sp
ec
ific
s
Supply
- Capacity
- Grid connection
- …
- Reactive power
- Frequency control
- Rehabilitation
- Shortcircuit proof
…
- kWh + kW
- Temperature / weather dependent
- Decentral / central
- Black start capability
- Reliability
- Flexibility
Prognosis deviationE
ne
rgy
ca
rrie
r
ac
ce
ss
Demand
Ta
xe
s/
levie
sPolitical
contribution:
- kWh + kW
- Temperature / weather dependent
- Decentral / central
- Flexibility
- Prognosis deviation
-
…
?
System stability.
Infrastructure(Gas/Power/Heat)
?
full-load hours : ≤ 7,500
full-load hours : 800 to 1,300
full supply ≙ 8.760 h
full supply ≙ 8.760 h
full-load hours : 2,500 to 3,500
50 Hz
50 Hz
Graph according to: VDE (2010)
Smart Appliances
Home Solar
Demand Management
Smart Meter
Rearrange responsibility, allocate costs according to cause, merge
generation and consumption spatially and temporally
Energy industry innovations (flexibility, storage, IT...) require uniform rules of the game for renewable and conventional plants:
Balancing group loyalty an essential building block for cost-effective back up
Position
STEAG
Grid: Calculate / procure
connection, capacity +
system services
Designing CHP and
self-consumption for grid and
system use
Reward flexibility, make
Redispatch more
transparent and pay for it
RES integration without
exceptions + 24/7, no subsidy for
negative prices, allocation of
balancing / grid costs
Power plant
Industry
City
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REN developmentabsolute in MW
Power Grids
must (actually) follow
Conv. generationhas to take over
the consequences
Interventions + reserve demand increase
Undiversification of generation structure
„Energiewende“ communication and political mechanismin Germany
„Target
architecture“ (Climate targets + REN-
development goals
in D and EU)
Will this mechanism be changed?
(Role of TSOs and markets, COGEN, utilization of grids… to be discussed)
Priority: discharge of REN (~Dumping) → System costs not part of REN subsidies
Distributive effects (due to EEG)
Volatil feed-in, market devaluation...
REN development unsynchronised
Pressure on common bidding zone
System need for ancillary services changed
In any case: grid costs are rising
Take over of transformation costs
Financial burden on heat from COGEN
Trend: transfer plants to grid? („Re-Bundling“ of storage and power plants?)
Mechanism
… impacts of this mechanism
Acceptance problems, grid expansion lags
Transfer to regulated reserves
Betriebsstunden
Load shift by storage
Lo
ad
in
GW
flexible,
steerable generation
Generation
Excess
power
Residual load
Storage
Sector
crossing
utilization
Sector crossing utilization
Sector coupling is on the agenda: not because of demand for
hydrogen but due to RENs electricity production at „wrong“ time and
in „wrong“ place
Power from solar and wind in 2017 = about 1,6 x 2012
Quelle
: G
örn
er
2017
24
• Power supply at „wrong“ time, in
„wrong“ place
• Expansion of REN leads to
mismatch of generation and
demand
• Essential: Synchronization of
generation and demand
Grid neutrality is increasingly being questioned due to increasing complexity(„How else should it go?“)
25
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Supply
Past:
Vertical Integration
Present: Unbundling as
market basis
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Supply
Tra
din
g
Future on two „intelligent“
grid level?
Generation
Transmission
Supply
Reserves
Storage
Load management
Decentralized
Reserves +
Storage Generation
Distribution
SchaltungLastflussmgt
Beschaffung
v.Regelenerg.
RedispatchEnergy conversion /
Integrated Energy
P2X +
Abschaltung
MessungAnschluss
Customer
Lieferung
Struktur
Netzbereitstellung +-führung
Only "trade-like
exchange"?
What kind of "market simulation" is it when regulated DSOs / TSOs take over the construction and use of reserves and other system services,
operate load management and in the future supply synthetic gas and heat and determine the relevant algorithms for digitization?
Integrated Energy
Customer
Customer
Load management
„higher utilization of
the grid“
Efficient Common Market needs a Common Energy Market and
harmonized Climate Policy
Common European approach can deliver a stable, technological neutral framework for
innovations and a secure industrial energy supply
Nationalization
increases costs and
risks for security of
supply and Unbundling
Common Market
Common
Market f.
Energy
Climatepolicy
Indirect subsidies (up to 10 Bn€)
via ETS (3rd period → 4th period
much more?)
Industrial protection
against cost increase
affects competition
26
STEAG and sector coupling: CHP, Power2Heat, Power2Methanol and
Hydrogen
Power-to-Methanol-Plattform at site Herne
CHP Herne: highly efficient OGCT under permissionPower-to-Heat-Project: Electrodes boiler at site Fenne
Field test: HydroHub Fenne