ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Overview of Seasonal-to-Decadal (s2d) Activities during the Initial
18 Months
Francisco J. Doblas Reyes
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
RT1 activitiesRT1: Development of the EPS
• Aim: assess best method to estimate model uncertainty.
• Estimates of model uncertainty using a new multi-model ensemble, a recently developed stochastic physics scheme (ECMWF and Met Office) and the perturbed parameters approach (Met Office with 2 different versions of HadCM3).
• Ocean initial conditions from ENACT and generation of new sets when possible.
• Common output archived in MARS (atm) and ECFS (ocean).
• Pre-production for 1991-2001 with reduced start dates and completion for end 2005.
• Additional experiments to test the consistency of the predictions and the impact of the ensemble size.
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Generalized ensemble approach
Uncertainty
initial conditionsmodel formulation
Estimation
ensemblemulti-model
multi-model ensemble forecast multi-model ensemble forecast systemsystem
N models x M ensemble membersN models x M ensemble members
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Generalized ensemble approach
Uncertainty
initial conditionsmodel formulation
Estimation
ensemble perturbed parameters
perturbed parameters ensembleperturbed parameters ensemble
N versions x M ensemble membersN versions x M ensemble members
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Generalized ensemble approach
Uncertainty
initial conditionsmodel formulation
Estimation
ensemble with stochastic physics
Ensemble with stochastic physicsEnsemble with stochastic physics
M ensemble membersM ensemble members
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Multi-model ensemble system
Partner Atmosphere Ocean
ECMWF IFS HOPE
ECMWF IFS OPA
CNRM ARPEGE OPA
CERFACS ARPEGE OPA
UKMO GloSea
UKMO HadCM3
MPI ECHAM5 MPI-OM1
• Hindcast production period for: 1991-2001
9-member ensembles
ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial conditions
ENACT-based ocean initial conditions with SST and wind perturbations
2 seasonal,1 annual runs per year
At least 2 multi-annual runs (1965 and 1994)
Boundary forcings in forecast mode: GHGs, aerosols, solar forcing, etc.
• ENSEMBLES system: 7 coupled GCMs running at ECMWF
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Multi-model ensemble system
Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...
6 models x 9 ensemble members
54 member multi-model ensemble
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Multi-model ensemble system
Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Multi-model ensemble system
Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Multi-model ensemble system
Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...
54 member multi-model ensemble
= 1 hindcast
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
RT2A activitiesRT2A: Global model engine
• Build on the RT1 experience.
• Starting in ~month 24: seasonal, annual and multi-annual integrations.
• New set of (ensemble) ocean initial conditions from ENACT and/or RT1.
• Common output (based on RT1 lists and scripts) archived in MARS and ECFS.
• Dissemination based on public data and OPenDAP servers.
• Production period 1960-2001.
• 4 times per year, multi-annual hindcasts with the perturbed-parameter approach (HadCM3 or HadGEM).
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Multi-model ensemble system
Partner Atmosphere Ocean
ECMWF IFS OPA
CNRM ARPEGE OPA
UKMO GloSea
MPI ECHAM5 MPI-OM1
INGV ECHAM4 OPA
• ENSEMBLES system: 5 coupled GCMs (4 running at ECMWF)
• Hindcast production period for: 1960-2001
9-member ensembles
ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial conditions
RT1-based ocean initial conditions
4 seasonal, 1 annual runs per year
At least 1 multi-annual run every 5 years
Boundary forcings in forecast mode: GHGs, aerosols, solar forcing, etc.
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Data storage• Archiving at ECMWF (seasonal to decadal) and M&D
(decadal to centennial in CERA).
• Use of a common list of variables (minimum requirement) for atmosphere and ocean variables.
• Atmosphere (GRIB) in MARS and ocean (NetCDF) in ECFS. Need of an ENSEMBLES class for MARS.
• Scripts available for archiving and retrieval.
ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, 10-11 February 2005
Data storage
http://cera-www.dkrz.de/CERA/
Global change
integrations in CERA
and PCMDI
Seasonal to decadal in MARS and ECFS
http://www.ecmwf.int/services/archive/