Effectuation 2
maandag 29 oktober 12
Effectuation
• 4 principes
• non predictive control
• “bird in hand”
• “crazy quilt”
• “lemonade”
• 1 process
maandag 29 oktober 12
Verwachtingen
• jullie gebruiken het denkproces van effectuation om verder te komen waar planning niet mogelijk is
maandag 29 oktober 12
Little by little, wean yourself. This is the gist of what I have to say.
From an embryo, whose nourishment comes in the blood, move to an infant drinking milk, to a child on solid food, to a searcher after wisdom, to a hunter of more invisible game.
Think how it is to have a conversation with an embryo. You might say, "The world outside is vast and intricate. There are wheatfields and mountain passes, and orchards in bloom. At night there are millions of galaxies, and in sunlight the beauty of friends dancing at a wedding."
You ask the embryo why he, or she, stays cooped up in the dark with eyes closed. Listen to the answer.
There is no "other world." I only know what I've experienced. You must be hallucinating.
maandag 29 oktober 12
Toegepast?
• tijdens de bijeenkomsten heb ik al eea gezien...
• jullie?
maandag 29 oktober 12
Grue en Bleen
LOW
EM
PHAS
IS O
N PR
EDIC
TION
HI
GH
Planning
EMPHASIS ON CONTROL HIGH
Adaptation
LOW
Market Power
Effectuation
PREDICTION Planned Action
RISK Inaction:
Learned Helplessness
UNCERTAINTY Creative Action
CONTROL IN VENTURE ENVIRONMENTS
MONOPOLY Overlooked Action
maandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
De andere principes
• “crazy quilt”
• “lemonade”
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Crazy Quilt
maandag 29 oktober 12
Absolut-Ice hotel
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Lemonade
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6
Surprise
• Avoid Surprises.
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6
Surprise
• Leverage Surprises.Surprises can present new opportunities.
• Avoid Surprises.
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maandag 29 oktober 12
CONTINGENCIES�
CHANGE YOUR MEANS
WHICH GIVES YOU NEW MEANS TO LEVERAGE
WHICH MAY GENERATE NOVEL OUTCOMES�
Information � Events �
People �
What you know Who you are
Who you know
by asking yourself "Now what can I do with my revised
means?"�
i.e. new venture directions
THE CONTINGENCY PATH TO NOVEL OUTCOMES
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• THE UNCERTAINTY PARADOX – How can you control a future you cannot predict? – You create it
• THE CERTAINTY PARADOX – How can you create a future in an environment mostly outside your control? – You co-create it with other stakeholders
• THE EQUITY PARADOX – How do you bring other people on board to create a non-existent pie? – You let them self-select for a piece of it
• THE AUTONOMY PARADOX – How do you share the pie without losing control of it? – You understand that ownership is not control; ownership is about the meta-rules
• THE PERSISTENCE PARADOX – What do you do when things go wrong? – You persist, but pre-commit when to give up
• THE PERFORMANCE PARADOX – You have built a great organization, a market that�s maturing and becoming predictable – Voila, you now have little control over it! [control shifts to prediction].
CO
NTI
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EN
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Het proces
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5
Attitude Toward OthersCompetition. Set up transactional
relationships with customers andsuppliers.
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5
Partnership. Build your “future” together with customers, suppliers and even prospective competitors.
Attitude Toward OthersCompetition. Set up transactional
relationships with customers andsuppliers.
maandag 29 oktober 12
High%impetus%to%act%
Low%impetus%to%act%
Inac3on%Learned%Helplessness%
Working(with(inputs(outside(your(control(
Working(with(inputs(within(your(control(
Outcomes(assumed(to(be(within(your(control(
Outcomes(assumed(to(be(outside(your(control(
Compelling%impetus%to%act%
Causal(=((Need(to(chase(resources(
Effectual(=((Self>selected(stakeholders(
Causal(=((Predicted(Outcomes(
Effectual(=((Novel(Outcomes(
Causal(=((Plan(and(make(calculated(bets(
Effectual(=((Be(open(to(changing(goals(
maandag 29 oktober 12
Affordable loss
• vs. “real options”
• vs. min-max
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maandag 29 oktober 12
Ice Hotel
• probeer de causale principes toe te passen
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maandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
Entrepreneurs
For a given level of risk, entrepreneurs feel they can expand the problem space and increase returns
For a given level of return, bankers feel they can reduce the problem space and decrease risk.
Step 2 Push creatively to increase return
Step 2 Try to reduce risk through insurance, etc.
Step 1 Pick a comfortable level of risk
Step 1 Pick a target return
Risk
Return
High High
Low Low
Low Low High High
Bankers
Risk
Return
DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO RISK BETWEEN ENTREPRENEURS AND BANKERS
maandag 29 oktober 12
MEANS WHO I AM
WHAT I KNOW WHO I KNOW
DEAD END OPPORTUNITY
ON HOLD
EFFECTUATION IN ACTION
NEW FIRMS, NEW PRODUCTS OR NEW MARKETS
NEW MEANS
NEW GOALS
NO COMMITMENT
EXPANDING CYCLE OF RESOURCES MEANS
CONSTRAINTS
CHANGES IN THE
ENVIRONMENT
CONVERGING CYCLE OF CONSTRAINTS ON GOAL
GOALS WHAT CAN
I DO?
INTERACT WITH PEOPLE
I KNOW
STAKEHOLDER COMMITMENTS
maandag 29 oktober 12