THE GREAT ESCAPEWhy so much doom and gloom when things are
getting better?
DAVID HULMEBrooks World Poverty Institute
Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre
Institute for Development Policy and Management
“THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE”
PUBLIC SENTIMENT IN THE WEST
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
The world emits 48% more carbon dioxide from the consumption of energy now than it did in 1992
A 2°C rise is “guaranteed” within one generation
Beyond a 2°C rise, climate change is likely to have catastrophic and irreversible effects
Forest destruction and ocean pollution continues
INEQUALITY
Today, 80 people own as much wealth as half the world’s population and in the next year the combined wealth of the richest 1% will overtake that of the other 99% of people
EXCLUSION
21 million men, women and children around the
world are in a form of slavery
• Gender• Ethnicity• Race• Religion• Disability
“THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER”
THE GREAT ESCAPE?
RISING INCOMES
Global real GDP per capita has risen by 320% between 1950 and 2010 ($3,500 to $11,200)
GDP per capita in UK has risen by over 500% between 1950 and 2010 ($6,939 to $36,320)
STRONGER POVERTY REDUCTION
STRONGER POVERTY REDUCTION
The extreme poverty rate has been halved, but major challenges remain
Proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day, 1990 and 2010
LONGER LIFE EXPECTANCY
Greater gender equality
Primary school net enrolment rates by sex and region1999 and 2007
THE CASE OF BANGLADESH
GDP per Capita Bangladesh 1970 - 2010
$0
$1,000
$500
1970 2010
MORE ON BANGLADESH
WHY ARE THINGS GETTING BETTER?
“IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!”
Growth - Global GDP per capita has increased by 320% since 1950
Extreme poverty ($1.25 a day) worldwide reduced by half 1990-2010: From 47% to 22% in
developing countries 700 million people lifted out of
extreme poverty But are growth and free trade
really all you need?
“IT’S SOCIAL POLICY, STUPID!”
“IT’S THE POLITICS, STUPID!”
1980….Anocracy and Autocracy Rule!
“IT’S THE POLITICS, STUPID!”
2012….Democracy (and Anocracy) rule!
“IT’S THE CONVERSATIONS, STUPID!”
Creation of useful knowledge (especially public knowledge) and its diffusion
People talking about washing hands (lowers infant mortality), about simple book-keeping (raises productivity) – using mobiles (increases connectivity and access to information)
OK THEN… WHY SO GLOOMY?
THE MISINFORMED
The nature of contemporary media: Sensationalism Rolling news Focus on all that is bad
Example 1 - Bangladesh Example 2 – University of Manchester PhD
students: More than 50% of broadsheet coverage of the last
10 years was kidnap and death of Linda Norgrove
THE INFORMED – OUTRAGE
Slow pace of progress given the affluent world in which we live Reallocation of less than 1% GDP would erradicate all
extreme poverty
If focused, the technological and organizational capabilities of humanity would permit total MDG achievement
Moral requirement to do better and do more
Hence the need for OUTRAGE!
THE INFORMED – NEW CHALLENGES
Spiralling inequality Number of millionaires worldwide is to increase by
about 53% in the next five years, to 53.2 million By 2016 the top 1% will be richer than the rest of the
world combined Ineffectiveness of institutions regulating
international finance In Africa, for every $1 of aid that enters the
continent, $10 of illicit finance / resources leaves the continent
THE INFORMED – NEW CHALLENGES
Inequality…
Slows down poverty reduction
Undermines the evolution of democracy and effective institutions
Facilitates Regulatory Capture
WHAT CAN WE DO
Do not despair.
Do not be complacent.
Think and act!
AT MANCHESTER
Create policy relevant knowledge Coproduce this knowledge with our partners Shift from poverty reduction focus to reducing
poverty and inequality worldwide and promoting climate justice
Communicate this knowledge to policy elite in the rich and poor worlds
Raise public understanding of global development
PERSONAL CHOICES
Make contributions to an NGO: humanitarian (Médecin Sans Frontiers) development (Oxfam or SCI) human rights (Amnesty International) radical-campaigning (War on Want) even Southern (BRAC International).
Find ways of reducing your personal carbon footprint Buy fair trade products and let retailers know this is your
preference Ask your pension fund about ethical investment
PERSONAL CHOICES
Think about your views on development issues Think about whether you support multilateralism
and agencies such as the UN when talking with others
Use your personal networks – social groups, mosque, church, temple, choir and friends – to discuss ideas about “what should be done”
Question your constituency candidates
….become an activist?
CONCLUSION
THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER
THE SKY IS NOT FALLING DOWN!
WE HAVE TO DO MUCH BETTER
Brooks World Poverty Institutehttp://www.bwpi.manchester.ac.uk/
Institute for Development Policy and Managementhttp://www.manchester.ac.uk/idpm/
Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centrehttp://www.effective-states.org/
Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institutehttp://www.hcri.manchester.ac.uk/
Chronic Poverty Research Centrehttp://www.chronicpoverty.org/
International Research Initiative on Brazil and Africahttp://www.brazil4africa.org/
