1
CAERC Research Program Overview CAERC Research Program Overview
ZHANG Xiliang
China Automotive Energy Research Center
Tsinghua University
2
中心成立中心成立中心成立中心成立Opening
Ceremony
April 19, 2008
3
Mission
� To conduct multidisciplinary, systematic and in-depth
research in the field of automotive energy
� To create and widespread the knowledge for the
establishment of affordable, safe and environmentally
friendly automotive energy system in China and the world
� To assist Chinese Government in formulating sustainable
automotive strategies and policies
� To foster leaders for the Chinese sustainable automotive
energy system transformation.
4
Research Resources Research Resources
� Seven institutions associated within Tsinghua
- Institute of Energy and Environmental Economics
- Department of Automobile Engineering
- Department of Thermal Engineering
- Department of Electrical Engineering
- Department of Environment Science and Technology
- School of Economics and Management
- School of Public Policy and Management
� Thour external institutions associated
- Development Research Center of State Council
- Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, China Academy of Sciences
- China Automotive Technology And Research Center (CATARC)
- Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission
� Research staff and post doctoral fellows: 26 +
� Doctoral and master students: 16+
5
Administrative Structure
� Steering Committee:
�studying and formulation of the research development plan of the CAERC
�review and approval of the annual working plans and budgets of the CAERC
�relationship coordination and gaining support from domestic and foreign resources to the CAERC, etc..
� The CAERC will establish an Advisory Board which shall provide consultation and guidance to the academic research of the Center
6
Energy Supply ChainsEnergy Supply Chains
CAERC Research OverviewCAERC Research Overview
Research Lead Institute
Energy PathwaysSupply Chain Dimensions / Key Elements
Biomass Fuels
Coal-based fuels
Oil/Gas Hydrocarbons
Electricity Hydrogen
Resources, Production and current/future uses
Conv ersion technologies (incl. cost, energy, water, CO2)
Inf rastructure: Physical supply chain
Economics / Cost / Price
Inv estors / Commercial interests / Stakeholders
Supply chain system interactions with others and water
Policy drivers/considerations (incl. impact analysis)
IntegratedIntegrated
AutomotiveAutomotive
EnergyEnergy
RoadmapRoadmap& Policies& Policies
Integrated AssessmentsIntegrated Assessments
Energy DemandEnergy Demand
Energy Demand Lead
Overview of China energy demand scenarios
China v ehicle and automotive energy demand growth
Fuel characteristics f or optimal match to propulsion system
Key aspects of integrated assessments Lead
Energy f uture scenarios from system modeling (implications of
different technology dev elopments, policies, disruptions)
Well-to-wheels energy pathway assessments /
Policy drivers/considerations (incl. impact of current/planned)
Societal drivers/considerations (urbanization, regional div ersity,
env. quality, transportation inf rastructure)
Develop integrated
framework and metrics for
assessment of future scenarios
Provide landmark
and ongoing energy
and policy/regulation
analysis
Report
Report
Report
Legend
Prof Wang
Prof Zhang
Prof Li
Prof Ouyang
DRC
External
Deliverables • Demand scenarios:
• Bio-fuel roadmap;
• Coal-derived fuels roadmap:
• Electricity supply and transmission outlook
• Hydrogen roadmap
• Oil and natural gas roadmap
• Integrated automotive energy strategy
7
Research Project TimelineResearch Project Timeline
Projects 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Biofuel Roadmap
Coal-derived Fuels
Roadmap
Oil and N. Gas
Roadmap
Electricity Roadmap
Hydrogen Roadmap
Vehicle and Energy Demand
Integrated Automotive Energy Roadmap
Report for release
The Policy Team will use the CAERC’s ongoing research deliverables to inform & refine policy implications and position statements
8
China’s coal flow in 2006
�Power gen.(47%), industry(21%) and coking(19%) are Top-3 coal consumers in China
9
China’s Crude Oil flow in 2005
炼油炼油炼油炼油 refinery290.04
自产自产自产自产 domestic181.35
进口进口进口进口 import
118.75
库存库存库存库存 inventory0.79
原油原油原油原油 crude oil
total=300.89
炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品 refinery prod.276.69
油品油品油品油品 oil product Total=197.12
汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 55.96柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 113.12燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 17.67
其他产品其他产品其他产品其他产品 other products
total=79.57液化气液化气液化气液化气 LPG 17.19炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气 gas 10.05
其它其它其它其它 other 52.34
成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口 oil prod. Import total=30.01
汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 3.38柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 0.54
燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 26.09
成品油成品油成品油成品油 Oil prod.
total=227.13
+
交通交通交通交通transportation total=149.06Share=45%
+ 总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费Oil consumption
total=330.9
炼油炼油炼油炼油 refinery290.04
自产自产自产自产 domestic181.35
进口进口进口进口 import
118.75
库存库存库存库存 inventory0.79
原油原油原油原油 crude oil
total=300.89
自产自产自产自产 domestic181.35
进口进口进口进口 import
118.75
库存库存库存库存 inventory0.79
原油原油原油原油 crude oil
total=300.89
炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品 refinery prod.276.69
油品油品油品油品 oil product Total=197.12
汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 55.96柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 113.12燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 17.67
其他产品其他产品其他产品其他产品 other products
total=79.57液化气液化气液化气液化气 LPG 17.19炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气 gas 10.05
其它其它其它其它 other 52.34
炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品 refinery prod.276.69
油品油品油品油品 oil product Total=197.12
汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 55.96柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 113.12燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 17.67
其他产品其他产品其他产品其他产品 other products
total=79.57液化气液化气液化气液化气 LPG 17.19炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气 gas 10.05
其它其它其它其它 other 52.34
成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口 oil prod. Import total=30.01
汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 3.38柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 0.54
燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 26.09
成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口 oil prod. Import total=30.01
汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 3.38柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 0.54
燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 26.09
成品油成品油成品油成品油 Oil prod.
total=227.13
成品油成品油成品油成品油 Oil prod.
total=227.13
+
交通交通交通交通transportation total=149.06Share=45%
+ 总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费Oil consumption
total=330.9
总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费Oil consumption
total=330.9
Unit: Mtoe
Copyright © Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research and Education Center
Source: adopted from China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006
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China’s Natural Gas flow in 2006
�Nearly 75% of the total demand is from industry (mainly for the raw chemical materials and
chemical products)
11267.2494.6130.7521.44Passenger car population乘用车保有量(million)
183.0467.7223.216.4Passenger car ownership 乘用车保有率(/1k)
312.85132.0653.4831.60Vehicle Population 汽车保有量(Million)
214.2894.5340.224.2Vehicle Ownership保有率(/1k person)
2030202020102005Year
Predict results of BAU Scenario
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20202010
0.005
0.005
0.05
Car
0.01
0.08
0.03
Bus
0.0010.10.050.00005FCV
0.0080.030.040.0005BEV
0.050.510.005HEV
TruckBusCar Truck
Penetration of technologies ((((%))))
Technologies and fuels assumption of BAU Scenario
15
15
6
2
62
Mini
5
5
2
1
87
Mini
15
15
6
29
35
Middle
20202010
1515555LPG
1515555CNG
66222Ethanol
2864304883Diesel
36058405Gasoline
smalllargesmallMiddle large
Penetration of car fuels((((%))))
4
4
3
8.8
80.2
Mini
1
1
0.8
4.4
92.8
Mini
4
4
3
69
20
Middle
20202010
44111LPG
44111CNG
330.80.80.8Ethanol
68.88964.467.296.2Diesel
20.2032.8301Gasoline
lightlargelightMiddle large
104LPG
104CNG
62Ethanol
1210Diesel
6280Gasoline
2020 2010
Penetration of Buses fuels((((%))))
Penetration of Trucks fuels((((%))))
13
Energy demands and GHG emission (BAU)
汽车能源需求和温室气体排放汽车能源需求和温室气体排放汽车能源需求和温室气体排放汽车能源需求和温室气体排放
(million ton gasoline equivalent )
Energy Demands (million tons)
GHG emission (million tons)
(million ton CO2 equivalent )
14
Biomass-Supply Balance Table: Forest Residues 108 tons
0.15——0.010.04——————0.1Others
1.230.20.0840.40.20.2500.096
Biomass practical accessibility
0.23——0.050.1——————0.08Wood pulp
production
0.62——0.260.21——————0.15Board
production
0.06——————————0.06——charcoal
production
0.86————0.46————0.240.16Direct
combustion
3.150.20.4041.210.20.250.30.586
Biomass technical accessibility
4.2550.40.0362.420.10.8750.060.364Loss during
collection
2.025————1.21——0.3750.120.32Returns for the
field
9.430.60.444.840.31.50.481.27Biomass availability
0——————————————Export
0.18——0.18——————————Import
9.250.60.264.840.31.50.481.27Indigenous
generation
Generation
Collection
Consumption
OthersUrban pruning residues
Bush residues
Fuelwood
logging &
bucking
residues
TotalTertiary Forest Industry
Secondary Forest Industry
Primary Forest Industry
Item
15
Forest Residue Flow
Copyright: Biofuel Group, CAERC, Tsinghua University
16
Market potential: Biofuel in Transport Energy Supply
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百标标 标标
Mtoe
石百 Fos sil Gasoline & Diesel 天天天 Natural Gas 煤煤煤煤 Coal-to-liquid 生生煤煤 Bio fuels 其其其其煤煤 Others
17
Economic Potential of Biofuels
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百标标 标标
Mtoe
生生生百 1st Biodiesel 生生生生百 2nd Syn-Biofuels 煤煤燃燃 1st Bioethanol 素燃燃纤纤 2nd Bioethanol 生生生生天 SNG
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百标标 标标
Mtoe
生生生百 1 st Biod iese l 生生生生百 2n d Sy n-Bio fue ls 煤煤燃燃 1 st Bioe tha no l 素燃燃纤纤 2n d Bio eth an ol
生生生生天 SNG 生生质质质 Bioe le ctricity 生生生氢 Bio hy d rog en
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百标标 标标
Mtoe
一其生生煤煤 1s t Biofuels 二其生生煤煤 2nd Biofue ls
18
Economic potential: Biofuels in Transport Energy Supply
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百百百 百百标标 标标
Mtoe
石百 Foss il Gaso line & Diesel 天天天 Natural Gas 煤煤煤煤 Coal-to -liqu id 生生煤煤 Biofuels 其其其其煤煤 Others
19
Final Energy Demand Scenario
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mtce
Coal Oil Electricity Gas Heat
Source: Tsinghua University ALTENERGY Model output.
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤 100 Mtce
Other RE
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
NG
Oil
Coal
Reference Scenario
21
CO2 Emission Constraint Scenario
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤 100 Mtce
Other RE
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
NG
Oil
Coal
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
亿吨标煤
100 Mtce
Other RE
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
NG
Oil
Coal
Dual Constraints Scenario
23
Energy Costs for Energy System Transformation
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$ / tce
Dual Constraints CO2 Emission Constraint Reference
24
Some Important EventsSome Important Events
� March 4 ----- 1st Steering Committee’s meeting
� April 19 ----- Opening of CAERC
� May 19 ----- GM VP Kenneth W. Cole visited CAERC
� May 21 ----- US delegation from Department of Treasure and Department of Energy visited CAERC
� May 22 ----- US-China Ten Year Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework “Clean and Efficient Transportation”Taskforce Brainstorm Organized by CAERCOrganized by CAERC
� June 27 ----- Professor Jiankun HE, Chair of CAERC Steering Committee, gave a lecture on climate change for the top Chinese leaders
� September 24 – October 9 ----- Study tour of CAERC researchers in USA
� October 15 ---- Sandia National Lab VP and CTO visiting CAERC
25
US Delegation from Department of Treasure and Department of US Delegation from Department of Treasure and Department of
Energy visited CAERC on May 21, 2008Energy visited CAERC on May 21, 2008
26
USUS--China Strategic Economic Dialogue's Ten Year China Strategic Economic Dialogue's Ten Year
Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework
““Clean and Efficient TransportationClean and Efficient Transportation”” Taskforce Taskforce
Brainstorm on May 22, 2008Brainstorm on May 22, 2008
27
Thank youThank you